Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont (84/132)

PLQ: 55%
QS: 32%
ON: 7%
PVQ: 4%
Oth: 2%

[lilTommy]

Turnout was terrible...
Viau - 17%
Ourtemont - 26%

So no surprises, Viau basically jumped back to its normal 55-60% vote mark for the PLQ. The PQ has to be stinging right now, they only beat out QS by under a hundred votes, losing 9% but i mostly think that's due to their voters just not showing up; same for CAQ who also lost 9%.

Outremont; no PQ or CAQ candidate; the PLQ had no trouble getting back up to a high mark of 55% but Bachand got 54% in 08 so for their leader to "only" hit that mark, seems a little disappointing. QS did really well almost doubled their vote, but again really only a symbolic win, definitely should help put wind in their sales.

 

[RogueBeaver]

OPC MPP Peter Shurman (he of the housing allowances) is resigning his Thornhill seat effective New Year's Eve. Benzie said on Twitter that his PC sources are pessimistic about a hold. Will Wynne call by-elections for this and Niagara in the New Year, or wait for the election? Budget vote wouldn't be till April/May, right? Weird how many MPPs are quitting in midterm.

[Hash]

Why are the Purgatories pessimistic? I have a tough time seeing the ON Liberals gaining a seat in a by-election (even if province-wide polls aren't terrible for them) and Thornhill hasn't exactly been trending Liberal. Unless the NDP vote drops to joke levels and the anti-PC votes coalesces behind the Liberals... but I have a hard time seeing that.

[lilTommy]

Why are the Purgatories pessimistic? I have a tough time seeing the ON Liberals gaining a seat in a by-election (even if province-wide polls aren't terrible for them) and Thornhill hasn't exactly been trending Liberal. Unless the NDP vote drops to joke levels and the anti-PC votes coalesces behind the Liberals... but I have a hard time seeing that.

Well Thornhill has been a tight race since 99' It's not hard to see the riding swing to the OLP: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thornhill_(provincial_electoral_district)
2011 - 46/40 PC/OLP
2007 - 45/42 PC/OLP
2003 - 46/45 OLP/PC
1999 - 48/47 PC/OLP
(The NDP failed to get over 10% in every election, their best result was 2011 with 8%)

Remember the Liberals hold every other seat in York region except Thornhill and Newmarket-Aurora (listed as "central" on wiki, really?)

But at this point the OLP has stabilized their vote; the Ipsos Reid poll in NOV had the parties at OLP 34% PC 31% NDP 31%. No one has broken 40% and neither the OLP or PCs have really gone below 30%. Remember expectations were low the Liberals would hold Scarborough-Guildwood and Ottawa South but they did; in a three-way and two-way race. I do not see the Liberals holding Niagara Falls though, but Thornhill will be tight as always. I don't see the NDP collapsing, a repeat of the Vaughan By-election, but i could see the NDP vote keeping the seat PC. The NDP will be throwing their resource at Niagara Falls so their vote might crash, but using Vaughan as a gauge the vote will probably be about 5-8% unless their is a wild card "star" candidate who runs for them. But that might just help to keep the NDP vote from collapsing as we saw in Ottawa South with Funiciello (who was by-far the star candidate among all candidates)
If the OLP are confident about doing well  in the seat (strong big name candidate?), i could see them call the by-election with Niagara Falls in the new year.

[RogueBeaver]

Shurman resigned because he found a new way to fleece taxpayers - mileage claims- and was pissed at getting a letter of reprimand from Hudak over it. Reportedly even said "entitled to my entitlements." What a douche, and good riddance.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Barry Weisleder will try and get the NDP nomination again.

[lilTommy]

I wonder if Barry Weisleder will try and get the NDP nomination again.

HA! He might run for the nomination, but i doubt the party will nominate him (or at least i hope they don't), i'm sure the party will be searching for anyone else... as long as perennial federal candidate Simon Strelchik doesn't run (i just find him annoying).
Barry is a good guy, principled and has good intentions, he's just very much a confrontational Socialist. Good for him for winning the nomination last time, but i doubt he'd win again. and Thornhill is not a good fit at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think any riding is a good fit for him. But, he is Jewish, just very anti-Israel. So, there's that.

I would love it if he ran and won the nomination just for the lulz.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The one time I went to a local party meeting as a member was when I was a student at U of T and went to the provincial Trinity-Spadina NDP annual meeting. It was towards the end of the Conservative government, like around 2002 or 2003 (but not Marchese's nomination meeting). The meeting was essentially dominated by Barry Weisleder's excessive number of motions on all manner of stereotypical far-left type things. Energy policy and the privatization of the hydro were big issues at the time, and were something of a focus for Howard Hampton, who advocated making the system public again. I just remember participating in a ridiculous discussion where Weisleder opposed this policy on the ground that the system would still be run by civil-service managers, whereas he thought it should be a worker co-op.

I came away thinking that the local riding association was kind of useless and dominated by zealous eccentrics, but in hindsight it probably wasn't a representative sample.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've heard many stories about divisive battles in the Trinity-Spadina NDP with the riding association pulling out all stops to block Weisleder's platform.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I've heard many stories about divisive battles in the Trinity-Spadina NDP with the riding association pulling out all stops to block Weisleder's platform.

Sounds like the non-Weisleders have become more organized than they were then. That's a good thing. It was kind of a mess in those days. There was an upcoming party convention, and the riding was allotted more delegates than there were people at the meeting, so everyone who wanted to could be a delegate, including both Weisleder and, in fact, me. But then the guy who was supposed to send us our credentials never did and never called me back when I tried to get in touch, so I didn't bother going, since I didn't want to take the GO train to Hamilton only to find out that nobody had the faintest idea who I was.

[MaxQue]

The so-called socialists were also annoying at the Montreal convention and pissed off the First Nations leaders which were present because they put some leaflets on the tables claiming than Idle No More was socialist.

[Hatman 🍁]

The so-called socialists were also annoying at the Montreal convention and pissed off the First Nations leaders which were present because they put some leaflets on the tables claiming than Idle No More was socialist.

That's typical. Every convention I've been to, they've caused a ruckus. It's why no one takes them seriously. They have some good ideas, but nobody will listen, because they are a thorn in the side of the party.

[MaxQue]

The so-called socialists were also annoying at the Montreal convention and pissed off the First Nations leaders which were present because they put some leaflets on the tables claiming than Idle No More was socialist.

That's typical. Every convention I've been to, they've caused a ruckus. It's why no one takes them seriously. They have some good ideas, but nobody will listen, because they are a thorn in the side of the party.

As when they delayed the adoption of the agenda because they didn't want  to hear a member of US Democrat Party (Jeremy Bird, an Obama strategist).

Through, the Larouchites and various socialist/communist leafleting below the staircase leading to the convention area were causing more ruckus.

[Hatman 🍁]

The so-called socialists were also annoying at the Montreal convention and pissed off the First Nations leaders which were present because they put some leaflets on the tables claiming than Idle No More was socialist.

That's typical. Every convention I've been to, they've caused a ruckus. It's why no one takes them seriously. They have some good ideas, but nobody will listen, because they are a thorn in the side of the party.

As when they delayed the adoption of the agenda because they didn't want  to hear a member of US Democrat Party (Jeremy Bird, an Obama strategist).

Through, the Larouchites and various socialist/communist leafleting below the staircase leading to the convention area were causing more ruckus.

LAROUCHITES? I've never seen them at a convention before. Perhaps I don't know what to look for?

[MaxQue]

The so-called socialists were also annoying at the Montreal convention and pissed off the First Nations leaders which were present because they put some leaflets on the tables claiming than Idle No More was socialist.

That's typical. Every convention I've been to, they've caused a ruckus. It's why no one takes them seriously. They have some good ideas, but nobody will listen, because they are a thorn in the side of the party.

As when they delayed the adoption of the agenda because they didn't want  to hear a member of US Democrat Party (Jeremy Bird, an Obama strategist).

Through, the Larouchites and various socialist/communist leafleting below the staircase leading to the convention area were causing more ruckus.

LAROUCHITES? I've never seen them at a convention before. Perhaps I don't know what to look for?

Well, they aren't NDP related. They often preach in subway stations in Montreal and I suppose they took the opportinuity to try to convert people coming or leaving a political convention. They weren't on convention site, but just outside of it (in public areas of the Congress Center).

[Krago]

As for the Windsor Ward 7 by-election, Irek Kusmierczyk narrowly edged out Angelo Marignani by 52 votes.  The two candidates were tied at 1,010 with 12 of the 13 polls reporting.

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2013/12/09/live-blog-ward-7-election/

Unofficial Results
Irek Kusmierczyk: 1,140 (31.3 %) - former 2011 federal Liberal candidate
Angelo Marignani: 1,088 (29.9 %) - local businessman, runner-up in 2010 municipal election
Tom Wilson: 639 (17.6 %) - City Councillor 1985-2006
Robin Fortier: 262 (7.2 %)
Tosin Bello: 231 (6.3 %)
Laurie Komon: 112 (3.1%) - lost 2013 NDP nomination to Percy Hatfield
Stavros (Steve) Gavrilidis: 67 (1.8 %)
Steve Farrell: 40 (1.1 %)
Ernie the Bacon Man: 33 (0.9 %) - perennial candidate, civic gadfly, bacon salesman
Robert Bialkowski: 21 (0.6 %)
Clint Weir: 9 (0.3 %)

*3,642 votes of 16,757 eligible electors (21.7 % voter turnout)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I Marignani left leaning? Or perhaps Wilson? Or was Komon the strongest left leaning candidate?

You'd think Hatfield would've endorsed someone. Often when a councillor retires, they will have an heir apparent, perhaps their assistant or something.

[Krago]

The Windsor and District Labour Council endorsed Laurie Komon.  Tom Wilson was an NDP supporter back in the eighties, but I don't know his current affiliation.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow. Did Komon even campaign? 3%? yikes.

[adma]

I'm wondering about any Thornhill byelection--would Bernie Farber be interested in running again?

[Krago]

Toronto Centre - Federal - 2011 General



Toronto Centre - Federal - 2013 By-election



Quick estimate for those polls contained in the new EDs of:

University-Rosedale: Lib 56%, NDP 22%, Cons 17%, Grn 3%, Oth 2%
Toronto Centre: Lib 46%, NDP 43%, Cons 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 3%

[Krago]

Bourassa - Federal - 2011 General



Bourassa - Federal - 2013 By-election

[Smid]

Great work, Krago!