Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Smid]

But agreed, if the NDP are to win Toronto Centre, they need a very high profile candidate, especially since the riding at this moment still has Rosedale in the boundaries... that will change after redistribution though by the looks of things, meaning even if the NDP don't win this by-election, they have a much better shot at the "new boundary" Toronto Centre come 2015

Running on the current boundaries, and losing (but putting in a good effort), could be useful in being the front runner for NDP preselection for the next GE.

[Smid]

Tommy, that finding is indeed interesting. When I was younger, it was commonly assumed that Australians differentiated between state and federal issues and governments, but I think that has become less and less the case. I couldn't even suggest when this started, 2001 state elections in Queensland and WA possibly? Our past decade could be a precursor to the psephological direction of yours? You have a strong third party with an ideological, rather than regional, base, plus your FPTP system is obviously different, so these may change things slightly. It possibly made things harder for One Nation to get off the ground, but we need to watch the next election (specifically Katter and Palmer) to see if an adoption of branding by voters makes it harder for new parties to establish themselves. This could have an impact on a future Reform or BQ, although perhaps a regional base is different enough to make things easier to start up and win seats?

[Smid]

Read something on Facebook this morning, about the Liberal candidate and Wynne campaigning in Ottawa Centre yesterday, instead of Ottawa South?

[Smid]

Apparently a farmer's market or something. I suspect it was probably a large market, close to the boundary, where a fair number of Ottawa South constituents may visit and it was seen as beneficial to campaign there, I don't know. If that's the case, it may just be spin.

[Smid]

Final Forum polls out.

Windsor-Tecumseh: 52 NDP, 26 PC, 12 OLP

Ottawa South: 52 PC, 36 OLP, 9 NDP.

London West: 38 PC, 36 NDP, 15 OLP

Are there many young people in London West, which could potentially create a turnout difference in the NDP vote?

Windsor is shaping up to be a pretty hefty swing against the defending party!

[Smid]

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

[Smid]

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

Quite right. I was typing fast to keep up with the thread and didn't think long enough about it.

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

And I thought than To-C already had a candidate.

Actually Giambrone's seat was Davenport. DOESNT ANYONE READ MY BLOG

But those seats are taken, and it's still relatively close to the downtown. It's more that this sort of obvious personal vote may make TO-C winnable for the NDP.

[Smid]

CBC says advance votes have yet to be counted in Ottawa, but doubt that makes a difference...

Depends on if it was a bad poll, or if there was a last-minute swing, or if it was because of the Liberal GOTV... bad poll, no difference, but if the advance votes were cast before a last-minute swing, or if they weren't subject to the Grit GOTV machine, well, then they may. Of course, probably still won't be enough to close the gap.

[Smid]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

[Smid]

I think the fools gold was in reference to Toronto Centre, where the Liberal margin vs the NDP will be cut once the redistribution takes effect.

[Smid]

London West was a shocker.

It was trending your way, though the margin was definitely surprising.

Last minute strategic voting by Grits to stop the Tories?

[Smid]

Following the Toronto NDP model, it would seem.

[Smid]

Linda McQuaig wins.

Highlight from Twitter was David Aikin claiming that Jennifer Hollett was the establishment choice, and everyone saying "wtf"?


Too bad Hollett lost, but McQuaig is a great candidate too.

The names don't mean much to me, brief bios?

[Smid]

(And don't be surprised if the Libs land in third once again.)

This is my opinion. I would expect it to be lost by them, but wouldn't want to try to guess who gains the seat.

[Smid]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

[Smid]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

In Canada, by-elections are called by the PM.

In this case, Premier, but still - surely there is a Constitutional requirement of a maximum length of time a seat can remain empty?

[Smid]

As always, great work, Krago!

[Smid]

Wouldn't it be marvelous if the Liberals win in Brandon, and the NDP in Toronto Centre?

If Liberals win in Brandon, having placed third or fourth last election, I suspect the NDP will lose the ownership of "Change" that they currently enjoy in polling, regardless of the result in TC.

[Smid]

So... if there were 443 respondants, but 12 of them were Anna Ross and her son... that would be 433... I think the number Forum needs to actually report is how many unique respondants and calculate their margin of error based on that...

[Smid]

Early results in TC will, I suspect, have a pro-NDP bias, given that any randomly selected poll (such as the first to report) is probably going to be more likely to vote NDP, given the geographic concentration of Liberal votes in fewer polls.

[Smid]

I think the Liberals have regained their position as the predominant non-Conservative party.

[Smid]

Brandon - Souris is all in now:

Conservative      12,205    (44.1%)
Liberal                11,814    (42.7%)
NDP                      2,037    (7.4%)
Greens                 1,354    (4.9%)
Libertarian              271    (1.0%)

[Smid]

Great work, Krago!