Canadian by-elections, 2013

[lilTommy]

Is Poopoo running?

Heard from the VP of the ONDP shes done with politics... but thats been said before eh. I just don't see her running and not being the Premier, she was a cabinet minister before and that wasn't enough for her to stay in politics. I'm going with she's out.

Heard that Rick Bartolucci might be thinking of jumping out too

Any possible ONDP candidates?

[lilTommy]

Bartolucci announced today he will not seek re-election, but will complete his current term.  He has informed Wynne not to consider him for a Minister position.

Federally, if the NDP could get a star candidate in Toronto Centre, they'd have a chance to take it.  Someone like David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton.

Ahh... i'm sure Wynne will have a number of those conversations with some long time OLP MPPs

David Miller - I would love to see this, don't know what else he's up to, so maybe?
Marilyn Churley - Probably not, she didn't run in 11 in Beaches, shes a justice of the peace now i believe so i'd say she is probably a no too.
Mike Layton - Nah, hes new to council and thats not his riding. Hes going to be sticking around on council for at least another term before he even thinks of anything else.

Maybe Pam McConnell might step up and run, she's been a long time councillor for the southern part of the riding.

[lilTommy]

I think the NDP has the edge in Windsor-Tecumseh BUT, again the candidate will matter. Its a by-election and that alone gives the NDP some advantage (we have a great ability to rally and put resources into them) but I still think there will be effort to attract a relatively "star-like" candidate.

first poll of London West:
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/02/13/liberals_in_dogfight_to_hold_chris_bentleys_london_seat.html
PC have slight lead, PC 34% OLP 30% NDP 28%
So, its not outside to consider the NDP could win. No candidates have been presented yet and that can change things. Also, Hudak is not well liked...
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/02/12/ndp-leader-andrea-horwath-makes-good-impression-on-ontarians-poll#disqus_thread
Its Andrea who tops the poll as having the most positive impression: 34%, Wynne 30% Hudak 23%!
Best Premier: Howath and Wynne are tied at 23% and Hudak is at 20%! (35% undicided)
Bad news for Hudak who should, if the PCs want to win London West, STAY AWAY! let it be candidate focused, where for the NDP it looks to be the opposite. If the NDP is lucky they might get a star candidate like KWs Catherine Fife and could take this seat.

[lilTommy]

After the next federal, unless the province adopts the same ridings, were going to have some very different discussions when it comes to who wins what.

federal riding TCentre - NDP edge here, without Rosedale the riding is a a battle with advantage NDP.
provincial riding TCentre - Liberal hold due to Rosedale being included, If the PCs can eat away enough OLP vote, then maybe, maybe a squeaker NDP win

[lilTommy]

The NDP needs a really good *LOCAL* candidate to win. Otherwise, they wont win.

The NDP needs someone like Arlene Michelin, who was the candidate in Lake Melville last prov. election and came in second (i think) but a huge increase in a seat the NDP weren't targeting (they were targeting Labrador West with a non-local candidate and lost). She's a councillor in the area HVGB i think.

[lilTommy]

Some news out of the Windsor-Tecumseh not-yet-called-by-election.
http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2013/03/15/hatfield-to-announce-plans-for-his-political-future-at-1-p-m/

Percy Hatfield, former union guy & CBC journalist and windsor city councillor is going after the NDP nod (pretty sure with his name brand and municipal experience, he wont be contested. the NDP candidate from 2011 isn't running).
This one seems like a lock for the NDP... just waiting for it to be called.

@Hatman... ya i thought about Randy Collins too, ya shame that. Huh, Darrel has a pretty hefty background on him, a former town councillor and mayor of Labrador City. Doesn't have Yvonne's name, but has just as much experience in gov't.
 

[lilTommy]

No one has brought up a vacancy in Nova Scotia? Manning MacDonald (L-Cape Breton South) resigned last week from the provincial legislature.  The riding has been Liberal since 1974 and will likely stay that way. Interestingly, the CCF held it in 1941. 

Being so close to a provincial election and with redistribution (correct me here, but it looks like CB will lose a riding and the district of Cape Breton South is now divided into Northside-Westmount, Sydney and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg, only Sydney will go NDP, the other two should be Liberal) there will be no by-election

The Tories lost an MP today with Edmonton-St.Albert MP moving to be an Indie

[lilTommy]

No one has brought up a vacancy in Nova Scotia? Manning MacDonald (L-Cape Breton South) resigned last week from the provincial legislature.  The riding has been Liberal since 1974 and will likely stay that way. Interestingly, the CCF held it in 1941. 

Being so close to a provincial election and with redistribution (correct me here, but it looks like CB will lose a riding and the district of Cape Breton South is now divided into Northside-Westmount, Sydney and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg, only Sydney will go NDP, the other two should be Liberal) there will be no by-election

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg & Northside Westmount both have sitting Tories running in them in the next election. The Liberals will probably get screwed out of a seat based on CB South getting divvied up between Tory & NDP areas.

Thanks for the correction, i should have just look at who the sitting MLAs are
The Liberals might actually win only one riding then (Glace Bay), with Richmond now expanding into the Tory held CBwest to form the new CB-Richmond (this will probably be a battle esp if the two MLAs go after each other). anyway... thats another topic.

Any Bourassa candidates yet?

[lilTommy]

London West, the NDP has stuck with the School board trustee trend and nominated Peggy Sattler (the policy director at Academica Group, a research consulting firm. She is a Thames Valley District School Board trustee and previously served two terms as board chair)
Last Poll i saw was May, with the OLP and PCs both at 34%, NDP 26%

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-liberals-tories-in-dead-heat-new-poll-shows-1.1295787

BUT, when you look at the regional number, for Southwest Ontario its PCs 35% NDP34% OLP 25%. with those numbers i wouldn't say the NDP "can't" win London West. The PCs have a better chance but, we can't count out the growing strength of the NDP in SWON

[lilTommy]

Hoping a high caliber NDP candidate runs in TC.  Maybe David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton?  I can dream.

I'd LOVE David Miller to run... but he just became the CEO (title i might have wrong) of WWF Canada so... 2015 at earliest for him. I can dream too

Layton is too vested in the municipal politics, to new there (2010) and his ward is in Trinity-Spadina. If a councillor was to run, i think Wong-Tam or McConnell would be better, since they both represent wards in that riding. Wong-Tam is new (2010) but McConnell has been around since the 90s i think.

Marilyn, from what i remember, is still a justice of the peace and SHOULD have run in 2010 in Beaches-East York again as she did in 06/08 but i believe she didn't because she was a justice.

But agreed, if the NDP are to win Toronto Centre, they need a very high profile candidate, especially since the riding at this moment still has Rosedale in the boundaries... that will change after redistribution though by the looks of things, meaning even if the NDP don't win this by-election, they have a much better shot at the "new boundary" Toronto Centre come 2015

[lilTommy]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

I like the sounds of Jenn, she could be a very good fit for this young, relatively-yuppieish riding (i say that due to the St.Lawrence/Waterfront condo goers who are much less party oriented and more candidate swayed i feel. As well as the bourgeois Cabbagetown, she's a modern feeling social democrat/social justice candidate)
The Liberals should not be so quick to nominate Smitherman; he lost the mayoralty and his (and Kyle Rae's) hand picked council candidate was defeated by Wong-Tam, he rubs many people very badly.

I'm still sold on the idea that this by-election is a building block for the NDP, the candidate who runs now should also stick around till 2015 when the boundaries will be more favourable (spend the time getting more intrenched into the local communities like St.Jamestown, Regent Park, Cabbagetown and the waterfront/St.Lawrence)

Dartmouth North, demographically, feels pretty safe for the NDP. Any regional breakdowns for NS? I remember hearing/reading that the NDP were still quite strong in the Halifax region compared to the province wide numbers? Its always been (recently since the 90s, their strongest area)

[lilTommy]

New Democrats managed 20% and 15% Federally/Provincially last time around, not terrible numbers but not high profile targeted riding numbers. But London West the NDP received about 21% provincially and the tides have seemed to turn in SWON to some degree.
Lets not forget the the Tories hold Etobicoke-Lakeshore federally, i'm sure the PCs would love to have any foothold in the city, although i doubt they could win it with the current PC leadership/policies.

I wonder if Irene Jones would run again? 10yrs away from municipal politics isn't that long away from public life? i'm sure that many still remember her/her work in the area. This isn't 2003 and the climate is much better for the NDP, although the OLP has regained its strength in the city. I just can't think of anyone else who could run for them... Any one know if the School board trustee Pamela Gough is a Dipper? they seem to be on a roll there LOL

Also... anyone else feel that the OLP is just going to hold 50 by-elections in order to avoid an actual election, then run with a new crop? Seems like their all jumping the ship.

[lilTommy]

How old is Irene Jones? Does anyone know what she's doing these days?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irene_Jones
No idea on her age, but looks like she still might be co-chair of the Etobicoke-Mimico Watersheds Coalition. If i had to guess, i'd say 50s-60s

[lilTommy]

I also think someone like Jones or another high profile candidate for the NDP could put the party over 20%

for London West looks like the PCs have nominated Ali Chahbar, lawyer a director with boys&girls club and Crime stoppers. Not sure he has the same caliber of experience as Sattler though, based on bios i would assume that Sattler is the higher profile candidate.
PCs (based on the last poll) are a head but only slightly in Southwestern ON vs the NDP, with the Liberals trailing.
London West i would say is more of a toss-up between the NDP and the PCs with advantage PCs. But again we would have given the advantage to the PCs in Kitchener-Waterloo also. Now this isn't the same highly charged, volatile, Dalton-still-in-charge atmosphere.

[lilTommy]

I also think Best has been around for the least amount of time, she was only elected in 2007...

Scarborough-Guildwood is probably going to stay Liberal too; its a battle between the PCs and OLP. Best won with 48% in 11, but federally John MacKay (a blue liberal if i'm not mistaken) just barely held onto the riding with 36% to 34% for the CONs; the NDP did rather well at 26%. Provincially the NDP never held this area, and managed 19% in 11 by a solid 21% in 07 with Neethan Shan who was a school board trustee at the time (now provincial party president, and performed much better in Scar.Rouge River in 11 with 36% a 22% increase).

The Guildwood area (in the south) is rather wealthy, about 40% make more then 100K a year, largest ethnic group is black but they make up only about 6%; 5% being South Asian
West Hill (south east) is slightly more mixed with about 20% in the 100K+ but about 55% visible minority, 20% being Black.
Woburn (north) is much more low-middle income 35%+ are in the 20-50K range, only 17% in the 100K (still pretty high); the big difference is that 70% are visible minorities, 35% being south asian
Morningside (north east) again a low-middle class area, 30+ in the 20-50K and 20% in the 100K income, the biggest growth is among the wealthier about a 5% increase between 2000-05. Similar to Woburn, about 70% are visible minority, 30% south asian and a large part being Tamil.

Based on the poll map on 506; its a mixed bag with the Cons/Libs/NDP winning polls in all of the neighbourhoods. The biggest grouping for the NDP was around Scarborough Village; The Liberals along Lawrence Ave; CONS off in West Hill.
But in the prov. election, looks like the PCs won only a few while the OLP won most of the polls http://globalnews.ca/map/519732/

[lilTommy]

Guildwood went NDP in 1990 and also CCF in 1943 and 1948 (with Agnes Macphail no less)

I stand corrected; BUT we have to remember the ridings were different back then. The current Scar. Guildwood looks to have been made up of the old Scar.Ellesmere, Scar. Centre and Scar. East(biggest portion 94% of it). In the cases of Ellesmere & Centre more favourable NDP areas to the west were included, Remember Scar.Southwest was a longtime stronghold for the NDP, long time seat of Stephen Lewis. Scar.East was won by a slim margin of 35-30-30 (while the others were won by 40%+)... all those ridings were lost to Harris in 95, and then to McGuinty in 03.

About Guildwood. The average 1st person income is about 50K, thats not low thats about average so i need to be corrected there, but its not a low income area. Its seen a huge decrease in the level of low income dropping from 34% in 2000 to 22% in 2005. The also saw a large increase in the 100K+ bracket growing from 29% to 37% (family income not individual).
DL -  i think you might be thinking of Morningside and Woburn when you speak of Tamils and high rises. One only has to look at the Guildwood VIA/GO station to see the area is very suburban, single family homes kinda neighbourhood.

If we compare E-L to Scar.Guildwood, might be right in that the areas is demographically changing more here to be favourable to the NDP, especially if they ran someone like Neethan Shan again. While E-L is seeing a huge condo boom in the south and a hollowing out of the older middle-working class areas, those neighbourhoods of Mimico, New Toronto, Long Branch and Alderwood have seen the middle income brackets shrink while 100K+ explode, although average 1st person incomes are still between 30-50K. E-L is generally very European too, with only New Toronto having a single group being over 10% (Black).

In regards to Agnes Macphail, it might have helped that she was a Progressive then United Farmer first before running in York East as a CCF'r

[lilTommy]

I think you makes some good points adma; thats reflected in the how close all three parties were, particularly last federal in Centre, Southwest, Guildwood and Rouge River. Scarborough is very much a hodgepodge of mixed communities, some with greater polarizations then others.
The NDP should start to realize that committing resources into these ridings (money, good candidates, etc) could produce results if the wider trend is positive for the NDP. The party did very well in both the ridings they hold federally last provincial (Southwest & Rouge River), but as you can see the Liberals held there vote and soft Liberals were not convinced to switch to the NDP (or conversely move to the PCs) for whatever reasons as they did federally. If you look at the difference, federally the NDP votes in RR & SW were only 5% higher. 

Oh, looks like the Liberals have nominated Ken Coran as their candidate in London West, he was the OSSTF president that led the charge against the Liberals only a few months ago. He looks to have been "anointed" with some in the executive not happy about it (not in this article but in another one i can no longer find). Yup, same guy who took credit for helping to stop the Liberals from getting a majority with their defeat in Kitchener-Waterloo. Make your own judgements
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberals-eye-teachers-federation-head-as-star-candidate-in-london-by-election/article12883499/

[lilTommy]

Watch the news report here from the local CTV news affiliate on Ken Coran running for the Liberals in London West. It is BRUTALLY negative!

http://london.ctvnews.ca/osstf-head-ken-coran-to-run-as-liberal-candidate-in-london-byelection-1.1345832

I think this could really backfire on them. London West is the most "bourgeois" of the three London seats and the Liberals win by attracting a lot of right of centre "Paul Martin liberals". How will those people react to the OLP running a militant public sector union leader who was manning barricades attacking the party he's now running for and who led very unpopular job actions this past year that ended all extra curricular activities in high schools? Meanwhile the NDP is running Peggy Sattler a very sweet maternal school trustee and former school board chair! This could also open the door to a PC win.

Coran would have been a perfect candidate... for the NDP. In fact it looks as though the Liberals would much rather have the PCs win London West, and choosing a candidate who will directly appeal to traditional NDP voters is a clear attack on the NDP and a subtle endorsement of the PCs. Sattler is clearly the superior candidate in this field (based on experience, i have no idea is she is charismatic, or eloquent etc) and with a candidate like Coran their clear goal is to pull votes away from the NDP. The OLP knows they will almost certainly lose Windsor-Tecumseh to the NDP, "possibly" Scar.Guilwood; Ottawa South and E-L are not sure bets either.   
On a broader sense, the OLP is clearly trying to claim the Centre-LEFT with the election of Wynne, the Budget which was NDP-lite (basically bending over to the NDP, even if the details were not what the NDP wanted) a PC win in London West will help them try and marginalize the NDP more and make this, as they always try to, a two party fight with the PCs.
My hope is that this will backfire... with the Budget being mostly built by the NDP, together with not being stained with a decades worth of scandals, soft Liberal voters will find it easier to vote NDP (or stay home) rather then stick with the OLP (and many not being able to stomach the PCs). We see this to some degree in SWON and in the North were the OLP are in third place in the last poll from May.

[lilTommy]

The star poll said candidates didn't matter... yet used a number of different candidates for the Liberals only. The PCs have a candidate in place but the NDP and the Liberals do not. It could be none of those listed Liberals as a candidate.
I think candidates will play a big part, its a by-election which means more media attention to said candidates and more resources (in most cases). I agree with DL; if the NDP can put up a strong candidate they could very well challenge for second spot.

[lilTommy]

The OLP government since 2011, hell even 2007, has been pretty horrible for sure, but Tim Hudak shouldn't be dog catcher, let alone Premier, so I keep voting Liberal.

Why are you a Liberal federally though?

... Why are you a Liberal at all then!

With Peter Milczyn, a pro-Ford Blue-Liberal, again its a strategic decision that i hope will backfire like with their choice in London West. He will pull votes that might have gone to the PCs, the last thing the Liberals want are the PCs to win any TO riding. This will only help the NDP into a second spot... BUT this also gives a tactical advantage to the NDP to play the Ford card to non-ford supporting Liberals. If this were the old PCs (Davis, pre-Harris) Milczyn would be a PC candidate.
Not having any local democracy in the electoral associations is a Liberal trend, has been for ages now.

[lilTommy]

David Miller won the wards making up Etobicoke Lakeshore when he beat John Tory in 2003

Actually, I think Miller marginally lost both of them. (But, emphasis upon "marginally".)

And he won them vs Pitfield in '06, needless to say.

Your correct, Miller lost Etobicoke wards 5&6 (lakeshore) BUT won ward 1 which is the northern most ward in Etobicoke. He also won wards 8(York Univ.),9(downsview) 42 (rouge river) all suburban which were carried by Ford in 2010. Oddly enough, Barbara Hall also did what looks to be her best in those northwest, northeast, suburban wards, very ethnically mixed (among other areas like Flemingdon & Thorncliffe parks, Regent Park, St.Jamestown, Dovercourt)

[lilTommy]

Im actually impressed the Freedom Party was able to put together an add that wasn't totally amateurish.

With two rather right-wing candidates (one more blue-liberal, populist; the other more traditionally conservative) this does open up the opportunity for the NDP to play the two against each other and present themselves as the only real progressive voice. I'm hopeful with a strong candidate the NDP could get a second place... but the PCs & OLP have strong candidates; the by-election will be a lot closer then the last poll said it would be.
The only thing against Holyday (other then him running under a Hudak banner), is he represents a ward in Etobicoke Centre, not Lakeshore. But as deputy mayor (and former Etobicoke mayor) hes well known; this is the best the PCs could muster. If he wins, it will be on his name and his reputation not that of Hudak.

[lilTommy]

Well in regards to a strong NDP candidate in EL and SG, we shall see tonight.

I have to agree with DL & Hatman; the NDP normally are behind on nominating for stated and maybe other factors as well. But nominating two days after the writ, and maybe a week after the members stepped down shows the NDP has managed to rebuild in some ridings they once were competitive in but since 95 and 03 were obliterated to some degree... since 03 the party was basically trying to just keep itself a float to hold what they had, with a limited target list (no more then 5) up until the last federal when that party did well above expectations.
 
I have been impressed with the candidates that have been presented so far; Fife in KW (who won we all know) but also Hatfield, Sattler, Mackenzie (in Ottawa Centre) Funiciello. The Quality in candidates is there, and we've been seeing that improvement since the last election.

I think the NDP will put most of its resources in WT and LW, those poll numbers prove that its battles the NDP can win. Especially since all (most) the news coverage around Coran has been negative.

Hatman; how are the tories perceived in the ottawa area? they hold two ridings, the suburban ones. But are they as "toxic" as they are here in the 416? could the NDP in OS pull more from that populist, potential tory voter or are the Liberals just that entrenched in Ottawa?

[lilTommy]

Wow, i'm honestly surprised to see Giambrone running in Guildwood; I think that came out of left (pun!) field. I agree with the articule, i think its Giambrone trying to get back into political life after a stupid mistake he made in 2010 that will haunt him. He's owning it though and thats good to see, but it will come up in the election if he wins. He's by far the biggest name in that SG race... but is that enough to help him win? He does have a good record on council so... i think this is a huge score for the NDP "if" he wins.

Ok, in Etobicoke-Lakeshore the NDP have nominated Pak-Cheong Choo as their candidate. He was the NDP candidate in Markham-Unionville in 2011, get this, he was formerly a Public School Trustee with the Etobicoke Board of Education. He is also a governor the University of Toronto.

http://www.elndp.com/1/post/2013/07/pc-choo-selected-to-represent-etobicoke-lakeshore-ndp.html

Star? he has a good CV, and again the NDP has gone with a candidate who has experience as a Trustee, but i say he lacks a star name, and to me doesn't seem like a strong local candidate. But sounds good on paper. To get noticed he's going to have to make some waves

[lilTommy]

If people are OK with having a mayor who is a crack cocaine addict, its hard to see why it was ever even an issue that Adam Giambrone...gasp...had sex!

I actually think he should have just stuck it out and ran; he also just should have admitted he slept with her, common he was like in his early 30s and not yet married (engaged though). People can be forgiving of sex scandals since they aren't reflective of your work or your ability to "perform" in your role (Clinton).
I think the issue was he lied about it, more then the act of it.