Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Poopoo running?

[Hatman 🍁]

Not related to by-elections exactly, but I saw the party list of Elections Canada than the United Party has new logo.

An exact copy of the UK Lib Dem logo, with a maple leaf added over it.

LOL

Kind of like that Mexican party that ripped off the Canadian Alliance.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NAP's previous logo was even more similar looking.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Well, it's not a reason for not trying.

Well, I'm just doing some research now, and perhaps the NDP should give it a try. The riding appears to have a large urban section that is friendly to the party. Maybe they can be competitive with the right candidate. London West is the most conservative riding in London, so I figured it would be off limits. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Hatman 🍁]

The issus with London West (but NDP performed better there than in Centre North last federal election) is the proposed redistricting, which move NDP friendly areas in Fanshawe, which really doesn't need them.

No guarantee the provincial ridings will continue to match the federal ones.

[Hatman 🍁]

London West = definite pick up opportunity. Scratch everything I have said

[Hatman 🍁]

If Trudeau wins, then no way the NDP wins TC. However, I would recommend doing a huge campaign there nonetheless, because redistribution may create an NDP seat in the south, and it would be helpful for the next election's resources to fall back on a well orchestrated by-election campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

After the next federal, unless the province adopts the same ridings, were going to have some very different discussions when it comes to who wins what.

federal riding TCentre - NDP edge here, without Rosedale the riding is a a battle with advantage NDP.
provincial riding TCentre - Liberal hold due to Rosedale being included, If the PCs can eat away enough OLP vote, then maybe, maybe a squeaker NDP win

The federal by-election is on the old borders, so Rosedale will still be included.

Yes.  In fact at this point, the NDP might have a better shot at the riding provincially, just based on numbers (current provincial polling vs perceived federal polling with Trudeau as Lib leader). However, Horwath's NDP doesn't play as well to Toronto as say, Layton. I can definitely see Toronto Centre types being very friendly to Premier Wynne, unfortunately.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Harper will call this earlier than he normally does, because they already have a candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Good test for the NDP. Labrador would be an essential riding en route to an NDP win.

[Hatman 🍁]

While the Inuit wont vote NDP, the First Nations vote could, as could those is Labrador City and HVGB. However, the outports on the south coast (Yvonne Jones' riding) are not NDP friendly...

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP needs a really good *LOCAL* candidate to win. Otherwise, they wont win.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was going to suggest Randy Collins, but uh... then I read his bio.

Interestingly the other NDP MLA elected from Labrador (former provincial party leader Peter Fenwick) later ran for the Canadian Alliance in Newfoundland and is currently the mayor of Cape St. George on the west coast of the island.

So, I am at a loss for a good candidate. Maybe Darrell Brenton (candidate in Labrador West from 2007)?

[Hatman 🍁]

For those who are interested, here are the 2011 federal results by provincial riding:

Torngat Mtns (Northern villages)
Cons - 521 (46.5%)
Lib - 418 (37.3%)
NDP - 169 (15.1%)
Grn - 13 (1.2%)

Labrador West (Labrador City, Wabush)
NDP - 1245 (38.0%)
Cons - 1013 (30.9%)
Lib - 979 (29.9%)
Grn - 41 (1.25%)

Lake Melville (HVGB & area, Churchill Falls)
Cons - 2197 (51.6%)
Lib - 1450 (34.1%)
NDP - 541 (12.7%)
Grn - 68 (1.6%)

Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair (Southern coastal villages)
Lib - 1175 (69.8%)
Cons - 360 (21.4%)
NDP - 138 (8.2%)
Grn - 10 (0.6%)


Very polarized area, for sure. The Tories, Liberals and NDP would all win at least one riding. Also, I don't buy the "anyone can win" Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair. I think it is very, very Liberal leaning...

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the results by census division (county equivalents)

Division No. 11 (Nunatsiavut)
Lib - 410 (43.4%)
Cons - 361 (38.2%)
NDP - 163 (17.2%)
Grn - 12 (1.3%)

Division No. 10 (everywhere else)
Cons - 3895 (40.0%)
Lib - 3767 (38.65%)
NDP - 1957 (20.1%)
Grn - 127 (1.3%)

[Hatman 🍁]

So, Torngat Mtns is basically Nunatsiavut plus the Innu village of Natuashish. The Inuit went Liberal, marginally but the Innu went heavily Conservative, and that lone village in the riding was enough to swing Torngat Mtns to the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for fun...

There are two Innu reserves in Labrador, here is their combined vote:

Con: 669 (92.9%)
Lib: 37 (5.1%)
NDP: 12 (1.7%)
Grn: 2 (0.3%)


Without those two villages, the Liberals would have won the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm surprised that Penashue did as well as he did in Nunatsiavut considering his opponent was Inuit Metis.

[Hatman 🍁]

For fun, if Labrador had a territorial assembly the same size as the other three territories (19 seats), the breakdown based on the 2011 results would be

Conservatives: 8
Liberals: 6
NDP: 5

These are based on a proposed map I have just thought of. These would be the ridings:

Nain
Nunatsiavut South
Natuashish
Sheshatshiu
Wabush
Labrador City Centre
Labrador City-Harrie Lake
Labrador City-Tanya Lake
Labrador City-Little Wabush Lake
Labrador City -Beverley Lake
Happy Valley-Goose Bay North
Goose Bay
Happy Valley West
Happy Valley Centre
Happy Valley East
Straits
East Coast
Cartwright-Charlottetown
North West River-Churchill Falls

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, when you say your assembly is based off the 2011 results, do you mean federal or provincial?

Oops. Federal, of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just looking at the provincial results now, and the Innu were just as Tory friendly:

Combined results of Natuashish and Sheshatshiu

PC: 245 (75.85%)
NDP: 55 (17.0%)
Lib: 23 (7.1%)

Note the huge difference in turnout between the federal and provincial election.

Are the Innu the most Tory friendly Aboriginal group? And here I was thinking it might be the Inuit. Weird!

The Innu community is divided into two provincial ridings (for some reason)
Natuashish is in Torngat Mountains, a Liberal riding that is completely Inuit except for Natuashish. Only one of the Inuit communities (Hopedale) voted Tory. Hopedale also went Tory in the federal election.

Sheshatsiu is in Lake Melville, a Tory riding anyways.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't know if i would describe the Inuit or the Innu as "Tory-friendly" or unfriendly for that matter. I think people in those communities tend to vote en masse for a candidate who is from that community who is respected and if no one is running who fits that description, they tend not to vote at all. If Penashue had been recruited to run for the Liberals or the NDP, I will bet yu that 99% of the votes he got in the Innu reserves would have voted for him regardless of party.

In the provincial election, the Tories ran an Inuit in Torngat Mountains, and the Innu still voted for her, but the turnout was low.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, I thought the Greens had won Nunavik, but Saganash managed to pull it off. I guess Romeo did some campaigning up there?

There is also an Inuit part of the NWT (Inuvialuit).