Perry County, Indiana
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BRTD
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« on: February 06, 2013, 10:24:37 PM »

Why is this so much more Democratic than all the surrounding counties, in both Indiana and Kentucky? It's in a rural area that's historically Democratic, but it's the only county from that region hanging onto its tradition and sticking with the party.
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2013, 10:50:06 PM »

Obama didn't drop very much in the rural white Southern areas that don't have coal mining (Southwestern Indiana has coal mining, and Romney made bigger gains there). Based on the Wiki article, it has a good-sized manufacturing base, including the auto industry, so it seems to be a fairly typical white Rustbelt county where Obama's more populist tone probably helped him hold it.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2013, 12:50:45 PM »

Why is this so much more Democratic than all the surrounding counties, in both Indiana and Kentucky? It's in a rural area that's historically Democratic, but it's the only county from that region hanging onto its tradition and sticking with the party.
This has been true for a very long time.  Tell City is the largest town on the Indiana side of the Ohio River between Louisville (New Albany, Ind) and Evansville, but is extremely isolated by road.  It might not be able to pick up an over-the-air TV signal.  Tell City has a relatively large population, 7200 of a county population of 20,000.   The neighboring counties to the east and west, Spencer and Crawford, only have villages.

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

The population has been very stable, increasing at an annual rate of 0.05% since 1890.   The neighbors to the east and west had a distinctive dip in population during the middle of the 1900s indicative of a much more rural population.  Dubois to the northwest had a population increase beginning from 1940 suggesting it was part of the Midwest post-WWII industrial growth.  It is on I-64 and US 231 and has significant cities.  At one time its voting was similar to that of Perry, but it has shifted more to the Republicans.

So my guess is that it is an isolated, but stable population, with an actual economic connection to the Ohio River with an actual town has helped it maintain its political traditions.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2013, 05:20:01 AM »

I've marvelled at this before.
Jim's post's very interesting, but offer an explanation it does not. Sad
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2013, 11:46:16 AM »

This might though: http://www.city-data.com/city/Tell-City-Indiana.html

57% of males and 20% of females are employed in manufacturing.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2013, 12:20:20 PM »

That fits well with Jim's description, but it's not as if White factory workers everywhere were Democrats.

Although they have steel and auto industries there: http://www.pickperry.com/major_emp.html
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jimrtex
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« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2013, 03:43:57 PM »

I've marvelled at this before.
Jim's post's very interesting, but offer an explanation it does not. Sad
So my guess is that it is an isolated, but stable population, with an actual economic connection to the Ohio River with an actual town has helped it maintain its political traditions.

Let's compare it to Dubois which is its neighbor to the northwest (inland).  At one time, Dubois was the most Democratic counties in southern Indiana.  In the first few decades of the 1900s, it was regularly 10-15% more Democratic than Perry.

But then Dubois began to grow.  The pattern matches the industrialization in the Midwest during and after WWII.  Remember that Ohio and Michigan gained representatives in 1960.  Perry had more voters in 1932 than in 2012.  Dubois had 85% more.

Perry (1932-2012): -6% total, -15% Democrat, +5% Republican.
Dubois (1932-2012): +75% total, -14% Democrat, +394% Republican.

The first shift began during the Roosevelt administration.  Perhaps the larger share of Germans in Dubois County had an influence.  The first time that Perry was more Democratic was in 1956, possibly again due to Germans voting for Eisenhower (between 1932 and 1956, Republican voters tripled in Dubois, only increasing by 50% in Perry).

Dubois was sharply more Democratic in 1960.  More Germans means more Catholics, along with new people moving to the county.  Perry was more Democratic again in 1976 (by 5%).  Perhaps the river location provides a bit more southern sensitivity.

There was an extremely sharp shift in 1984, where Dubois which had only been less Democratic in 1956, 1976, and 1980, was suddenly 13% less Democratic, and which has been been steadily becoming even more Republican dominant.

This suggests that the Democrats in Perry County were more culturally Democratic, and their isolation has helped maintain that.  Dubois may have become more economically Democratic because of its post WWII-growth, but not strongly so, and they responded to Reagan's populist message.

By 2004, Democrats were getting throttled in Dubois.  They got an uptick in 2008 based on a favorite son vote, adding 3500 votes, while the Republican vote decreased by 2200.  But this reversed in 2012 with about a 2200 vote increase for the Republicans and 2200 vote loss for the Democrats.  It is likely that it is getting difficult for Democrats to get elected to local office. 

Meanwhile, in Perry, you had an enthusiasm drop for Democrats in 2012, but only a modest gain for Republicans.

I wouldn't be surprised if there hasn't been a modest influx of outsiders who semi-dropout by moving to Tell City.  Look at a road map.  It is hard to get to Tell City.   It used to be easy by river, but now you likely only see barges hauling commodities.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2013, 12:28:13 AM »

It might not be able to pick up an over-the-air TV signal.

In other words, they're not brainwashed by the yapping media.
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2013, 12:58:39 AM »

I wouldn't say it's all that hard to drive to Tell City from Evansville or Owensboro, neither is all that far, though I see the point, you have to take a lot of backroads and there's no direct route between major cities that takes you through it. However I'd be surprised if it doesn't get any Owensboro TV stations.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2013, 01:01:31 AM »

I don't know if Owensboro has any stations of its own. They watch Evansville stations there.
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« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2013, 01:06:53 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2013, 01:08:41 AM by suede denim secret police »

Yeah but are there any towers for those stations there? I know the TV stations from my home town in North Dakota reach some pretty far away places.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2013, 01:09:29 AM »

The towers might be right between Evansville and Owensboro. But Tell City is on low-lying land, and probably has a hard time picking up any stations in the digital era.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2013, 01:36:32 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if there hasn't been a modest influx of outsiders who semi-dropout by moving to Tell City.  Look at a road map.  It is hard to get to Tell City.   It used to be easy by river, but now you likely only see barges hauling commodities.

Yeah, judging by Google Earth it looks like Interstate 64 pretty much bypasses Perry County.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2013, 09:48:27 PM »

I wouldn't say it's all that hard to drive to Tell City from Evansville or Owensboro, neither is all that far, though I see the point, you have to take a lot of backroads and there's no direct route between major cities that takes you through it. However I'd be surprised if it doesn't get any Owensboro TV stations.
You'd have to be intending to drive there.  And notice the north-south routes from Indianapolis go to Evansville, Owensboro, and Louisville.  But at one time, the Ohio River was the main drag.

There is one TV station in Owensboro, but it is a public television station, and its transmitter is halfway to Evansville.  All but one of the Evansville stations was UHF, and a couple did not come on the air until the 1980s.  The signals appear to reach Tell City, but not much further.   A local newscast focused on the Tri-State Area might have little interest and in practical terms might mean that they cover stories from Owensboro.

While Tell City is not that large, it does have 8000 people and around 40% of the county population.   In Spencer and Crawford counties, the largest towns are about 1000.  They're definitely rural.

I think the reason that Perry politics have changed less than neighboring counties is that it has changed less.  And this isn't even considering the counties along the Ohio across from Louisville or west of Cincinnati, or in the Evansville area.
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« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2013, 09:54:54 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if there hasn't been a modest influx of outsiders who semi-dropout by moving to Tell City.  Look at a road map.  It is hard to get to Tell City.   It used to be easy by river, but now you likely only see barges hauling commodities.

Yeah, judging by Google Earth it looks like Interstate 64 pretty much bypasses Perry County.
I looked for some local election results without success.  I did find one election in which the township officials in Oil Township were all Republicans.  I-64 does cross the northern edge of the county, including Oil Twp, but the population is definitely concentrated in the southern tip of the county along the river.
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« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2013, 04:28:09 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2013, 04:46:55 PM by Franknburger »

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

Swiss-German suggests Protestants (Calvinists) - true?

If yes, that might be part of the answer. While others and I myself have noted various cases of Catholic German Americans swinging heavily towards Romney, Protestant German Americans appear to have mostly remained loyal to the Democrats. This is at least indicated by results in heavily Protestant German American counties in Wisconsin (e.g. Dane) and Minnesota. Perry County might be another point in case.

Abortion might be one of the key issues that divide Catholic and Protestant German Americans.
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« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2013, 04:51:46 PM »

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

Swiss-German suggests Protestants (Calvinists) - true?

If yes, that might be part of the answer. While others and I myself have noted various cases of Catholic German Americans swinging heavily towards Romney, Protestant German Americans appear to have mostly remained loyal to the Democrats. This is at least indicated by results in heavily Protestant German American counties in Wisconsin (e.g. Dane) and Minnesota. Perry County might be another point in case.

Abortion might be one of the key issues that divide Catholic and Protestant German Americans.

If this is true, it really doesn't apply to Pennsylvania Dutch areas (Swiss Mennonites, though relatively few are actually Amish) like mine. Look at Lancaster County, PA or Holmes County, OH.
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« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2013, 05:48:10 PM »

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

Swiss-German suggests Protestants (Calvinists) - true?

If yes, that might be part of the answer. While others and I myself have noted various cases of Catholic German Americans swinging heavily towards Romney, Protestant German Americans appear to have mostly remained loyal to the Democrats. This is at least indicated by results in heavily Protestant German American counties in Wisconsin (e.g. Dane) and Minnesota. Perry County might be another point in case.

Abortion might be one of the key issues that divide Catholic and Protestant German Americans.

If this is true, it really doesn't apply to Pennsylvania Dutch areas (Swiss Mennonites, though relatively few are actually Amish) like mine. Look at Lancaster County, PA or Holmes County, OH.

Yeah, I don't think his analysis is right at all. Rural Protestant Germans were almost never Democrats historically (all three aspects being factors tending to cause one to be a Republican in the past).
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« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2013, 05:56:21 PM »

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

Swiss-German suggests Protestants (Calvinists) - true?

If yes, that might be part of the answer. While others and I myself have noted various cases of Catholic German Americans swinging heavily towards Romney, Protestant German Americans appear to have mostly remained loyal to the Democrats. This is at least indicated by results in heavily Protestant German American counties in Wisconsin (e.g. Dane) and Minnesota. Perry County might be another point in case.

Abortion might be one of the key issues that divide Catholic and Protestant German Americans.

If this is true, it really doesn't apply to Pennsylvania Dutch areas (Swiss Mennonites, though relatively few are actually Amish) like mine. Look at Lancaster County, PA or Holmes County, OH.

I am anything but an expert on religous groups, but the Mennonites appear to be quite different from mainstream protestants, and suffered heavy prosecution in protestanr Central Europe, especially in Switzerland and the Netherlands- hence their emigration to Pennsylvania and beyond.

From a socio-economic perspective, mainline protestantism emerged as an urban, middle-class protest movement against Emperor and Pope, with little concern for social issues. Mennonism, on the other hand, was a rurally-rooted, egalitarian, anti-capitalist, utopian movement.

As thus, I would not be surprised to see both groups voting quite differently, even though it is interesting to see the more egalitarian movement trending Republican, while the one rooted in small town business interest representation appears to prefer Democrats. As I have said, it is probably morale issues, especially abortion and gay rights, making the difference.
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« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2013, 08:01:24 PM »

Rural Protestant Germans were almost never Democrats historically (all three aspects being factors tending to cause one to be a Republican in the past).

Historically, I agree. As of today, I am not that sure.

It is pretty difficult to identify Protestant German Americans (and their voting behaviour) on a county base, as they may tend to cluster either with Catholic German Americans, or with other Lutherans, i.e. Scandinavians. Nevertheless, I have come up with the following rural counties that are (i) predominantly Lutheran, (ii) have a plurality of German ancestry (meaning that they are most likely to represent Protestant German americans), and (iii) voted in majority for Obama in 2012:

Dunn, WI: 39.3% German ancestry, 51.5% Obama
Mover, MI: 35.9% German, 60% Obama
Clayton, IA: 52% German, 52.6% Obama
Fayette, IA: 43% German,  55,6% Obama
Ransom, ND: 39.5% German, 55.4% Obama
Sargent, ND: 37.3% German, 55.6% Obama
Day, SD: 34.5% German, 52.1% Obama.

The list is non-exhaustive.

I am aware of the shortcomings of my approach, and anybody with better sources (e.g. precinct data) is welcome to correct me.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2013, 06:35:12 PM »

The region with the greatest percentage of rural German Protestants is the Great Plains, and I'm pretty sure that those are (and have been) some of the most Republican states, period. Tongue
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jimrtex
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« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2013, 12:02:33 AM »

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

Swiss-German suggests Protestants (Calvinists) - true?

If yes, that might be part of the answer. While others and I myself have noted various cases of Catholic German Americans swinging heavily towards Romney, Protestant German Americans appear to have mostly remained loyal to the Democrats. This is at least indicated by results in heavily Protestant German American counties in Wisconsin (e.g. Dane) and Minnesota. Perry County might be another point in case.

Abortion might be one of the key issues that divide Catholic and Protestant German Americans.
Dubois must have a fairly significant (German) Catholic population.   It is 60% German ancestry, and was about 10% stronger for Smith in 1928 than any other county in Indiana.  It also had a spike in support for JFK, which temporarily stopped its drift toward the GOP.  It shifted pretty strongly towards the GOP beginning in 1984.

In the last few decades of the 20th Century there have been other counties near the Ohio River that have been more Democratic than Perry, but they have been drifting away.  These include Switzerland, Clark, and most recently Scott.  I assume that they have come under the influence of Cincinnati and Louisville.

In the early two decades of the 20th century, Perry was in the low teens among most Democratic counties in Indiana.  It was Democratic but not remarkably so.  It finally made the Top 5 in 1924 and 1928.  During the FDR era it dropped as low as 38th in in 1936.  That doesn't appear to be a consistent southern Indiana pattern.

Post WWII it returned to the mid-teens.    Since 1960 it has been consistently Top 5.  During the first few decades, the leaders were southern counties like Switzerland and Scott.  More recently, Perry has emerged as the last redoubt of southern Indiana Democratic strength, while the leadership has been taken over by counties like Lake, LaPorte and Marion.

So, I still go with the idea that Tell City is large enough and isolated enough to prevent a drop in population, but small enough and isolated enough to not support any influx of population.  The politics haven't changed because the people haven't.  There may be a tiny bit of new liberals drawn to a river town, and the national forest (not enough to wrench it left like San Miguel, Blaine, or Teton, but enough to keep it Democratic).
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2013, 11:04:48 AM »

The spike in JFK support suggests German Catholic to me. I googled Perry, and could not find anything to explain its relative Dem love myself. The voting block can be quite volatile. They make the Fox River Valley in Wisconsin quite volatile, along with Dubuque in Iowa. German Protestants in general tend to be quite Pub as others have noted.
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« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2013, 11:30:22 AM »

The region with the greatest percentage of rural German Protestants is the Great Plains, and I'm pretty sure that those are (and have been) some of the most Republican states, period. Tongue

Do you have any maps on this?  From the Wikipedia map below, the largest concentration of rural German Americans seems to be in the Mid-West (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa) plus the Dakotas and Eastern Nebraska. Except for Nebraska (which, however, appears to be predominantly Catholic), these States are rather known as solid Democrat, or pontential swing states (Dakotas).



Anyway, getting back to Perry County - a closer look at the religion map that was posted in this thread indicates a predominantly catholic population, so my original point on religion becomes moot.

The Wikipedia article on Perry County states:
Quote
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So we might have a kind of Iowa-like set-up: Manufacturing-oriented, blue collar, not rural, but also not linked to a major urban centre. Should bring forward a similar voting pattern.

Plus - If my job depends primarily on foreign employers, I might tend to place more emphasis on foreign policy and the US' image in the world...
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« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2013, 11:46:50 AM »

(rural) Greater Minnesota is characterized by the electoral cleavage between Lutheran Democrat Scandinavians and Catholic Republican Bavarians. That's American Demographics 101 stuff, man. Smiley
(It's also why the German Catholic areas show up so well in the 1928 and 1960 maps - that wouldn't be the case if they had also voted Democratic in 1924 or 1956.)

I take it that Perry County, unlike bits further west in southwest Indiana, has no coalmining history.
The Iowa analogy may actually be quite fitting.

Fun fact: In the State House, the area was split between the districts of two longterm Democratic incumbents from further east and further west - Paul Robertson and Russ Stilwell. Both held leadership positions, Stilwell's a union man. Both went down to defeat in 2010. Republicans then drew what can almost be described as a Dem pack in the area (eh... it voted for Obama in 2008, anyways, and has all of Perry) and whisked the 2010 winner that lived in it away to make her Lt.Gov.
Then held the seat in 2012 anyways. Democrat can't have outperformed Obama by much.

 
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