Major Ousted in 1995

[Del Tachi]

John Major loses a 1995 leadership election to John Redwood.

How do the 1997 general elections play out?

I think that Labour gets swept into office, but probably with a much smaller majority than OTL. 

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Labour were going to win the 1997 election regardless of who was leading the Tories, and I have to agree with you, a smaller majority than IRL.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories with Redwood as leader in 1997? Hahahahaha. Third. Second in terms of votes still, but, third in the contest that matters.

[Dr. Cynic]

Tories with Redwood as leader? They would've been smashed. Far worse than with Major.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Tories with Redwood as leader in 1997? Hahahahaha. Third. Second in terms of votes still, but, third in the contest that matters.

How many seats can you see each party, particularly the Lib Dems, winning in this scenario?

[Dr. Cynic]

In a scenario like this they could come close to 100 seats. The Tories, I suspect would lose plenty of votes to Ashdown.

[Phony Moderate]

If the Tories were going to replace Major before 1997 then it had to be either Heseltine or Portillo, either of whom could have kept them above 200 seats. Redwood and Clarke were at the extreme (opposite) ends of the party and either of those two becoming leader would have lead to an even more divided party.

[Supersonic]

If the Tories were going to replace Major before 1997 then it had to be either Heseltine or Portillo, either of whom could have kept them above 200 seats. Redwood and Clarke were at the extreme (opposite) ends of the party and either of those two becoming leader would have lead to an even more divided party.

This is pretty much spot on.

If Redwood won the contest, then they would have performed worse at the '97 election, if someone like Portillo or Heseltine won, they could have saved some extra seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Portillo was extremely unpopular: there's a reason why he lost his very safe seat on a very large swing, and there's a reason why literally millions gloated about watching him doing so. His post-1997 political (and now media) career has to be seen in light of the fact that he noticed that everyone hated him and happened to be sufficiently self-aware to wonder why that might be and what he could do to change things. It helped that his ridiculous pre-97 persona was an act.

[Dancing with Myself]

Major ousted in '95. When was the last time two Prime Ministers back to back were ousted by their own party instead of by the British electorate? And from the same party? There was talk if I recall about Thatcher replacing Major and going back to Downing Street.

I doubt that, Thatcher was pretty unpopular when she quit.  To go back to her was too much of a risk even if she might have been popular again, plus she was getting older, not younger.

Portillo prob would have been the best choice but it would have made 16 years with the Conservatives in charge by 1995, fatigue would have began to grow. Portillo would have had to run a perfect campaign to beat Blair and Labour.

Even that's a hard thing to do in that time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Surely the more likely scenario would be more like 1990s. John Redwood does much better than expected, Major much worse. Major resigns, making way for a Portillo or a Clarke.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I thought this thread was about Major Major M. Major

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Portillo prob would have been the best choice...

Portillo was widely hated (he was at the time still locked into that silly ultra-right obvious closet case persona). There's a reason why 'were you up for Portillo?' was one of the phrases of 1997.

[Dancing with Myself]

Portillo prob would have been the best choice...

Portillo was widely hated (he was at the time still locked into that silly ultra-right obvious closet case persona). There's a reason why 'were you up for Portillo?' was one of the phrases of 1997.

I remember seeing that on the BBC coverage of the election.  I would have hated to been a Tory that year.

[Lechasseur]

By 1995 the Conservative Party was just exhausted. There wasn't really anyone more credible or electable to succeed John Major (Michael Portillo's social liberalism would have gotten the Tories turning on him pretty quickly, like what happened in IRL in the 2001 Conservative Party Leadership Election). So I suspect the Tories results in 1997 would have been pretty similar to their results with Major as PM.

[Phony Moderate]

Portillo wasn't remotely socially liberal until after his 1997 defeat. He was the darling of the right until he admitted his university day 'sins'.

Of course there are obvious parallels between Portillo and Ed Balls. Both were the subject of an electoral decaputation effort (though Balls was only ousted at the second attempt) due to national unpopularity. Then both became more popular post-Parliament via the medium of television.

[Lumine]

It should be noted that, at the time, there was a MORI poll calculating how much of a boost or a loss some alternate candidates gave to the Conservatives in General Election polling:

Heseltine: +2.5%
Major: 0%
Clarke: -1.5%
Portillo: -1.5%
Shephard: -2%
Redwood: -2.5%

I remember reading somewhere that under those numbers Heseltine could have saved 20 to 30 seats, possibly more (leaving the Conservatives far closer to 200 seats). Now, it is perfectly possible a Heseltine leadership could have seen the divisions inside the Conservatives worse and thus the performance in 97 could be more or less the same, but at least it seems he would be have been a benefit (compared to a far more unpopular Redwood, or Portillo).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Considering everything that has been said in this thread, Option 2.

[Pericles]

Does Redwood himself win or does he do well enough so Portillo jumps in?

[IceAgeComing]

It should be noted that, at the time, there was a MORI poll calculating how much of a boost or a loss some alternate candidates gave to the Conservatives in General Election polling:

Heseltine: +2.5%
Major: 0%
Clarke: -1.5%
Portillo: -1.5%
Shephard: -2%
Redwood: -2.5%

I remember reading somewhere that under those numbers Heseltine could have saved 20 to 30 seats, possibly more (leaving the Conservatives far closer to 200 seats). Now, it is perfectly possible a Heseltine leadership could have seen the divisions inside the Conservatives worse and thus the performance in 97 could be more or less the same, but at least it seems he would be have been a benefit (compared to a far more unpopular Redwood, or Portillo).

I've done some maths based on these numbers: if you assume that these numbers would be a uniform swing from Labour to the Tories (or from Tories to Labour in most of these cases) based on the real 1997 election results; you get the following results.

Hesseltine: Labour majority of 139 (Labour 398, Conservative 191, Lib Dems 40, Others 30)

Clarke + Portillo: Labour majority of 209 (Labour 433, Conservative 147, Lib Dems 49, Others 30)

Shephard: Labour majority of 211 (Labour 434, Conservative 145, Lib Dem 50, Others 30)

Redwood: Labour majority of 221 (Labour 439, Conservative 139, Lib Dem 51, Others 30)

This isn't a perfect way of looking at it since the Liberals would likely gain votes and seats in this situation and there are a fair few Conservative-Lib Dem seats that could fall with a bit of tactical voting - in that Redwood scenario there are seven more Tory seats that would go Liberal if there was a 2.5% uniform swing in that direction: plus a few more that are close enough that a little more anti-Tory tactical voting could cost them those seats.  With some of those numbers I'd expect to see the Liberals approaching 60 seats at least, but its hard to say since the dynamic of the 97 election would have been different had someone else led the Conservatives - Labour were winning either way.

[Pericles]

Is it possible that whoever is elected PM would call a snap election-especially if they get a honeymoon poll boost and come close to Labour?

[Lumine]

Is it possible that whoever is elected PM would call a snap election-especially if they get a honeymoon poll boost and come close to Labour?

I don't think it's impossible that some of the winners could have called a snap election in 1996, but it would have taken something drastic for them to rise in the polls enough for that to have looked less suicidal. It's true that the Tories had pulled it off once by knifing Thatcher and staging a comeback under Major, but I'm not sure it would work again given the dismal state of the Conservatives and the fact that they were up against Blair.

You'd probably need a different Labour leader for a strategy like that to be more plausible. Brown, for example.