Conventional Wisdom on House Elections

[Vosem]

I averaged out CookPo and Sabato's House ratings (ie, if one says Tossup and the other Likely R, then it's marked Leans R); I favored more competitiveness (ie, if one says Leans R and the other Likely R, then it's marked Leans R); except with Tossups, where I introduced Tilts (ie, if one says Tossup and the other Leans R, then it's Tossup/Tilt R). Here're the results (and over time I'll keep updating this thread, probably adding other outfits to the average as they release predictions over time).

5 seats -- 4 held by Democrats, 1 held by a Republican -- are marked 'Pure Tossup'. Nothing is favored by the other party. In seats where the incumbent is retiring (3 so far, of which 2 are competitive), the incumbent's name is in italics. In the future, when seats are predicted to be pickups, they will be underlined.

Without further ado:

Likely Democratic (16)
California 3 (Garamendi)
California 9 (McNerney)
California 16 (Costa)
California 24 (Capps)
California 26 (Brownley)
California 41 (Takano)
Connecticut 5 (Esty)
Florida 22 (Frankel)
Illinois 17 (Bustos)
Iowa 1 (Braley)
Minnesota 7 (Peterson)
Minnesota 8 (Nolan)
Nevada 4 (Horsford)
New York 24 (Maffei)
Rhode Island 1 (Cicilline)
Washington 1 (delBene)

Leans Democratic (15)
Arizona 9 (Sinema)
California 7 (Bera)
California 52 (Peters)
Georgia 12 (Barrow)
Illinois 10 (Schneider)
Illinois 12 (Enyart)
Massachusetts 6 (Tierney)
New Hampshire 2 (Kuster)
New York 1 (Bishop)
New York 18 (Maloney)
New York 21 (Owens)
North Carolina 7 (McIntyre)
Texas 23 (Gallego)
Utah 4 (Matheson)
West Virginia 3 (Rahall)

Tossup/Tilts Democratic (2)
California 36 (Ruiz)
Florida 26 (Garcia)

Pure Tossup (5; 4D, 1R)
Arizona 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona 2 (Barber)
California 31 (Miller)
Florida 18 (Murphy)
New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter)

Tossup/Tilts Republican (1)
Colorado 6 (Coffman)

Leans Republican (15)
California 10 (Denham)
California 21 (Valadao)
Illinois 13 (Davis)
Indiana 2 (Walorski)
Michigan 1 (Benishek)
Michigan 11 (Bentivolio)
Minnesota 6 (Bachmann)
Nebraska 2 (Terry)
Nevada 3 (Heck)
New York 11 (Grimm)
New York 19 (Gibson)
New York 23 (Reed)
Ohio 14 (Joyce)
Pennsylvania 8 (Fitzpatrick)
West Virginia 2 (Moore Capito)

Likely Republican (22)
California 25 (McKeon)
Florida 2 (Southerland)
Florida 10 (Webster)
Florida 13 (Young)
Florida 16 (Buchanan)
Iowa 3 (Latham)
Iowa 4 (King)
Kentucky 6 (Barr)
Michigan 3 (Amash)
Michigan 7 (Walberg)
Minnesota 2 (Kline)
New Jersey 2 (loBiondo)
New Jersey 3 (Runyan)
New Jersey 5 (Garrett)
Ohio 6 (Johnson)
Ohio 7 (Gibbs)
Ohio 16 (Renacci)
Pennsylvania 7 (Meehan)
Pennsylvania 12 (Rothfus)
Tennessee 4 (desJarlais)
Virginia 2 (Rigell)
Wisconsin 7 (Duffy)

If someone could agree to make maps for these predictions, this would be muchly appreciated

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Tierney?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If someone could agree to make maps for these predictions, this would be muchly appreciated

Hope I didn't mess anything up:

[Vosem]

Tierney?

Cook has him at Leans D, Sabato at Likely D. As detailed in the initial post, I round towards more competitive, and those are so far the only predictions in the average.

If someone could agree to make maps for these predictions, this would be muchly appreciated

Hope I didn't mess anything up

Thank you so much! Seems perfect on first glance.

[Vosem]

So, since this thread was established, Rothenberg has also released his House ratings. The main difference between Rothenberg and the other two prognosticators is Rothenberg is much more confident -- frequently, where one prognosticator has a Leans, he has a Likely; where another has a Likely, he has a Safe. Thus, adding him to the averages moves 26 different seats around -- and all of them become safer for the incumbent party. Here are the new numbers (and, a Person, if you could update your map t'would be much appreciated !)

Likely Democratic (14)
California 3 (Garamendi)
California 16 (Costa)
California 52 (Peters)
Connecticut 5 (Esty)
Florida 22 (Frankel)
Illinois 10 (Schneider)
Illinois 17 (Bustos)
Iowa 1 (Braley)
Minnesota 7 (Peterson)
Minnesota 8 (Nolan)
Nevada 4 (Horsford)
New York 21 (Owens)
New York 24 (Maffei)
Washington 1 (delBene)

Leans Democratic (13)
Arizona 9 (Sinema)
California 7 (Bera)
California 36 (Ruiz)
Georgia 12 (Barrow)
Illinois 12 (Enyart)
Massachusetts 6 (Tierney)
New Hampshire 2 (Kuster)
New York 1 (Bishop)
New York 18 (Maloney)
North Carolina 7 (McIntyre)
Texas 23 (Gallego)
Utah 4 (Matheson)
West Virginia 3 (Rahall)

Tossup/Tilts Democratic (1)
Florida 26 (Garcia)

Pure Tossup (5; 4D, 1R)
Arizona 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona 2 (Barber)
California 31 (Miller)
Florida 18 (Murphy)
New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter)

Tossup/Tilts Republican (1)
Colorado 6 (Coffman)

Leans Republican (9)
California 21 (Valadao)
Illinois 13 (Davis)
Indiana 2 (Walorski)
Michigan 1 (Benishek)
Nevada 3 (Heck)
New York 11 (Grimm)
New York 19 (Gibson)
New York 23 (Reed)
Ohio 14 (Joyce)

Likely Republican (17)
California 10 (Denham)
Florida 2 (Southerland)
Florida 10 (Webster)
Florida 13 (Young)
Iowa 3 (Latham)
Kentucky 6 (Barr)
Michigan 7 (Walberg)
Michigan 11 (Bentivolio)
Minnesota 2 (Kline)
Minnesota 6 (Bachmann)
Nebraska 2 (Terry)
Ohio 7 (Gibbs)
Pennsylvania 7 (Meehan)
Pennsylvania 8 (Fitzpatrick)
Virginia 2 (Rigell)
West Virginia 2 (Moore Capito)
Wisconsin 7 (Duffy)

And here is a list of moves, in alphabetical order:
California 9 (McNerney) – Likely D to Safe D
California 10 (Denham) – Leans R to Likely R
California 24 (Capps) – Likely D to Safe D
California 25 (McKeon) – Likely R to Safe R
California 26 (Brownley) – Likely D to Safe D
California 36 (Ruiz) – Tossup/Tilt D to Leans D
California 41 (Takano) – Likely D to Safe D
California 52 (Peters) – Leans D to Likely D
Florida 16 (Buchanan) – Likely R to Safe R
Illinois 10 (Schneider) – Leans D to Likely D
Iowa 4 (King) – Likely R to Safe R
Michigan 3 (Amash) – Likely R to Safe R
Michigan 11 (Bentivolio) – Leans R to Likely R
Minnesota 6 (Bachmann) – Leans R to Likely R
Nebraska 2 (Terry) – Leans R to Likely R
New Jersey 2 (loBiondo) – Likely R to Safe R
New Jersey 3 (Runyan) – Likely R to Safe R
New Jersey 5 (Garrett) – Likely R to Safe R
New York 21 (Owens) – Leans D to Likely D
Ohio 6 (Johnson) – Likely R to Safe R
Ohio 7 (Gibbs) – Leans R to Likely R
Ohio 16 (Renacci) – Likely R to Safe R
Pennsylvania 8 (Fitzpatrick) – Leans R to Likely R
Rhode Island 1 (Cicilline) – Likely D to Safe D
Tennessee 4 (desJarlais) – Likely R to Safe R
West Virginia 2 (Moore Capito) – Leans R to Likely R

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Got it.



Ohio's 7th is listed as Likely R and as Leans-to-Likely R, can you double-check that one?

[Zioneer]

Mia Love just declared candidacy for UT-04 again, so I would say that district is Toss-up.

[publicunofficial]

Mia Love just declared candidacy for UT-04 again, so I would say that district is Toss-up.

I'm sure everyone who has rated the UT-04 race did so while believing Love would run again. The rating is the same with her in it.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If Barrow runs, his district probably goes to a lighter blue shade.

PA-12 might be Lean Republican, since there's no Obama to drag on the ballot.

[Vosem]

Got it.



Ohio's 7th is listed as Likely R and as Leans-to-Likely R, can you double-check that one?

Ah, I see what the issue is. Cook issued an update on March 9 that shifted the rating of Ohio 7 (and consequently shifted it in the average from Likely R to Leans R), while adding Rothenberg to the average moved it back. Something similar happened in South Carolina 1 (from Safe R, then to Likely, then yesterday back to Safe), but I realized that when I was typing about SC-1 and didn't include it in the list of shifts. Whereas I did with OH-7 for some reason. It's probably good to include this post anyway, so that can see later how conventional wisdom on certain seats evolved.

Thank you very much for the map -- perfect as usual -- and for bringing this to my attention

[Mr.Phips]

Mia Love just declared candidacy for UT-04 again, so I would say that district is Toss-up.

Love had everything going for her in 2010, especially favorite son Romney at the top of the ticket and still couldnt win. 

[Nutmeg]

Got it.

Ohio's 7th is listed as Likely R and as Leans-to-Likely R, can you double-check that one?

Ah, I see what the issue is. Cook issued an update on March 9 that shifted the rating of Ohio 7 (and consequently shifted it in the average from Likely R to Leans R), while adding Rothenberg to the average moved it back. Something similar happened in South Carolina 1 (from Safe R, then to Likely, then yesterday back to Safe), but I realized that when I was typing about SC-1 and didn't include it in the list of shifts. Whereas I did with OH-7 for some reason. It's probably good to include this post anyway, so that can see later how conventional wisdom on certain seats evolved.

Thank you very much for the map -- perfect as usual -- and for bringing this to my attention

IN-1 should be Democratic.