Vatican City 2013 papal election

[Platypus]

Still 'feeling' Sandri. No idea why.

[Keystone Phil]

Did someone really say Dolan has "zero" chance? Haha. Someone hasn't been following this that closely...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Did someone really say Dolan has "zero" chance? Haha. Someone hasn't been following this that closely...

Yes, he has zero chance.  If he wasn't a US cardinal, he'd have a chance, but being from the US kills any and all chance he has.

[Paleobrazilian]

Did someone really say Dolan has "zero" chance? Haha. Someone hasn't been following this that closely...

Yes, he has zero chance.  If he wasn't a US cardinal, he'd have a chance, but being from the US kills any and all chance he has.

Being american is not Dolan's biggest problem. In my opinion, his chances are small because he's been a cardinal for only a year, and because his Italian is not very good. Plus, it's unlikely his colleagues are readdy for such a huge personality as Pope. If Benedict XVI hadn't resigned, I think he'd be the favorite around 2018.

I'll be rooting for him, though.

[Paleobrazilian]

1 day before the conclave, rumours say the campaign of Ravasi has faded, due to his lack of pastoral experience. According to the same rumours, the names of Dolan, Tagle and Erdo have failed to gain traction, and probably won't be considered early on the conclave. Thus, the 3 names now expected to come up strong on the first ballot, tomorrow afternoon, are Scola, Ouellet and Scherer.

[ZuWo]

Still hoping for Ouellet Koch, just out of a sense of patriotism. He could be a reasonable compromise between the Europeans and the out-of-towners.

If you want an untainted and uncontroversial Pope, he's the right man for the job.

[Benj]

Did someone really say Dolan has "zero" chance? Haha. Someone hasn't been following this that closely...

Newsflash: The way the American media covers these things is not the reality of the situation.

[Platypus]

GAH lost a massive post. Will try and repeat it now.

[Platypus]

It'dll be a massive surprise if the new Pope is from the US, it'll be a huge shock if it's Dolan.

It seems like the next Pope needs to tick five boxes:

1. Conservative, but not reactionary. They ought to be able to see the grey, but advocate the white and confront the black, so to speak. Someone with deep beliefs in line with the conservative wing of the church, but not unthinkingly. Ideally, not taintyed by scandal based on not communicating these views well, but certainly someone who has conservative views and is prepared to express them, and does so in a way that is both clear and not offensively harsh.

2. (Relatively) young and healthy. Anyone over 72 is a non-starter. Preferably someone without significant helath issues in their past, and certainly none currently unwell.

3. A fluent Italian speaker, with strong competence in English and Spanish, and ideally German too. Can probably survive without great English or Spanish if they're functional, but the Italian is essential.

4. Both pastoral and administrative experience. They don't need to be a great showman at all, but they do need to have the experience of talking to the pews, and the ideally the lives of the general clergy. The administrative strength is ideally linked with the curia, but strong governance of a large Archbishopric is probably sufficient. One or the other isn't likely to cut it unless the other factors are all met, and met well. There's no real need for a deep theologian, as long as they understand the theologians around them.l

5. Either a European (read: Italian) with significant global networks or, more likely, from outside Europe but with very (very) strong Vatican connections. Not likely to be a non-Italian if they're prepared to not go out on a limb and pick a  European, and the best non-Euro candidates need to have links with the Euro bloc.

(The original write-up was better, but the points are basically the same. I can't see anyone who fits each category perfectly, but unless politics plays a major part in terms of the lesser roles, the cardinal who meets these criteria most closely would be the most likely winner).

[Keystone Phil]

The Papabili Wikipedia page lists Philadelphia's former Cardinal (Justin Rigali) as a potential winner, citing an article by CBS New York. Laughable.

I'm glad Naples' Cardinal Sepe is getting some mention. He's a dark horse. If we can't have an American, I'm rooting for him to be the upset winner.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1 day before the conclave, rumours say the campaign of Ravasi has faded, due to his lack of pastoral experience. According to the same rumours, the names of Dolan, Tagle and Erdo have failed to gain traction, and probably won't be considered early on the conclave. Thus, the 3 names now expected to come up strong on the first ballot, tomorrow afternoon, are Scola, Ouellet and Scherer.

Meh, that's pretty disappointing...

I guess I'll be rooting for Scherer by default, because Ouellet is a nutcase and I don't want another Italian Pope.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I heard Ouellet got rave reviews for his mass the other day. If the top three really are Ouellet, Scherer, and Scola... Mr. Ouellet looks pretty good.

Also, what are people's thoughts on the new pope's name? I'm liking the ring of Leo or Innocent.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to the Vatican Insider, Scola will get 35-40 votes tomorrow, Scherer should get some 25, Ouellet lurking behind. Americans should rally around Dolan and hope he gains traction, O'Malley is the plan B. Bertone may go with a handpicked guy early on, just to show he still has his block under control (La Stampa mention he'll send a sacrificial lamb, Cardinal Coccopalmerio).

I don't wanna get too excited, but Scherer is looking good. He's already the candidate of Sodano and Re, amd Bertone would gladly vote for him to stop Scola. If Scola can't keep the moment from the 1st ballot, he could immeadiately gain traction, and by the 5th ballot or so we could have a yes-or-no on Scherer.

The question on Scherer is whether the "backbenchers" will like him enough. He fits the Curia perfeclty, and that may bother some Cardinals from Africa, Latin America, and the US. He celebrated a very anticipated mass Sunday, I think he handled that well.

If he fails to get this, then Ouellet will be the frontrunner #3. He'd be a strong bet to consolidate 2/3 of the vote.

[Paleobrazilian]

I heard Ouellet got rave reviews for his mass the other day. If the top three really are Ouellet, Scherer, and Scola... Mr. Ouellet looks pretty good.

Also, what are people's thoughts on the new pope's name? I'm liking the ring of Leo or Innocent.

I like the chances of Paul VII or Pius XIII. It would be cool if the new Pope went for something bold, though, as James, maybe bring back a name like Boniface.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Ouellett is going to be my final bet, though I still hold hope that Tagle or Turkson could make history tommorow.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm rooting for Cañizares, only because he's the least bad we have here in Spain Then, Tagle. But I'm an atheist. I despise them all.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Turkson, Ouellet, Schoborn, or the main contender from Brazil.

The Italians (though I'd be open to Scola getting it) need to sit out a few generations.

and absolutely NO BERTONE

[Antonio the Sixth]

and absolutely NO BERTONE

Can't believe I agree with JCL on something. Bertone always struck me as a sleazebag.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

What about Bill O'Reilly?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about Bill O'Reilly?

Endorsed! He'd be a great comic relief.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

and absolutely NO BERTONE

Can't believe I agree with JCL on something. Bertone always struck me as a sleazebag.

My reasons against Bertone are this.

1. The Italians need to step aside for a good while (like a century or five if it lasts that long)
2. After reading about a few of the non-European papabili, I'm quite impressed
3. The Austrian has some excellent ideas regarding reform (the priests shoud be able to marry)
4. I'm in favor of a younger Individual and the best contenders amongst the younger ones is also our best shot at an African (Turkson)
5. A pope from the Americas would be interesting (the Brazilian and Ouella)
6. If someone from the US were pontiff (Dolan, O'Malley) it would prove a global game changer

Ultimately Turkson is my personal pick.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Pro Eligendo Pontifice mass will be celebrated tomorrow at 9 AM GMT. The procession to the Sistine Chapel will happen at 3:30 PM GMT.

[RodPresident]

Although I'm Brazilian, I'm against Scherer because a Brazilian pope can strengthen Catholic Church in Brazilian politics. If I were voting, I'd go for Schönborn or Erdo. O'Malley would be a good choice too.

[ShadowRocket]

I really think its need to be someone whose a reformer, so I would be fine with Scola even though I'd prefer someone outside of Europe.

Though I'm getting the feeling that in the end, it wont be him, Scherer, or Ouellet.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

6. If someone from the US were pontiff (Dolan, O'Malley) it would prove a global game changer

This is exactly why I'm against any American pope who's not O'Malley.