Obama's 1986. Small Republican gains in the House -- large Republican gains in the Senate, perhaps Republicans even take the majority -- but a reasonably. successful cycle for the Democrats in terms of governorships and state legislatures.
Which states in particular do you think Democrats will do well in?
Democrats got killed so badly in governorships and state legislatures in 2010, there is really no where to go but up there.
True.
House -- the Tea Party pols are getting stale, and some moderate districts could tire of extremists. President Obama has exploited potential rifts in the R-leaning electorate. Republicans would have been wise to offer at the least some token alternative to the President's proposals for gun control. Maybe moderates can challenge extremists in the district primaries and win (which would be an improvement even if Democrats don't win the House).
Senate -- More D pols than R pols are vulnerable unless many Southern states tire of the GOP. The most vulnerable Senate Republicans are Susan Collins (primaries) and McConnell (underachievement). I expect the Republicans at the least to pick up a Senate seat in West Virginia -- maybe Montana or South Dakota. Of course that is not enough to get a majority.
Governorships -- look at all the unpopular GOP Governors -- Scott, Kasich, Corbett, LePage, Snyder, Walker, Deal, Haley, Jindal, Perry... the surprise is on the latter four.
Poll
