Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead

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Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead

« on: April 02, 2004, 06:56:32 AM »

Poll: Bush leads Kerry 47%-41% in Wisconsin
http://www.jsonline.com/news/gen/apr04/219183.asp

President Bush enjoys a narrow lead in Wisconsin, though his popularity has gradually slipped since the fall.

At the same time, negative views of challenger John Kerry are up sharply since his victory march through the Democratic primaries.

Bottom line?

"This state is in play," pollster G. Donald Ferree Jr. said of the latest Badger Poll, a statewide survey of 500 voting-age adults taken March 23 to 31.

Bush led Kerry 47% to 41% in the poll, with independent Ralph Nader capturing 5%.

Bush's lead was slightly smaller - 49% to 45% - in a one-on-one matchup with Kerry.

That points to Nader's potential to hurt Kerry in an extremely tight election. When Democrat Al Gore carried Wisconsin by two-tenths of a percentage point in 2000, Nader drew 4% of the vote.

Since the last Badger Poll was taken in late January and early February, Kerry has nailed down the Democratic nomination and both sides have embarked on early and aggressive ad campaigns in the nation's most competitive states. The largest concentration of swing states is in the Midwest, and Wisconsin is in the heart of that battleground belt.

In Kerry's case, a barrage of Bush ads, many of them attacking his record on defense and taxes, seems to have had an impact.

In the last Badger Poll, only 18% said they had an unfavorable impression of Kerry. In the new poll, 34% said so. Those saying they had a favorable impression of the Massachusetts senator dropped from 42% to 37%.

But the poll contains warning signs for both candidates.

Negative views of Bush are up, too, though the change is less dramatic, and less recent. The Republican incumbent faced a barrage of negative ads during the Democratic primaries, including Wisconsin's in mid-February. Since Bush launched his own multimillion-dollar ad blitz a month ago, he has outspent the opposition. But liberal groups supporting Kerry have aired ads attacking Bush on jobs and the war in Iraq.

In October 2003, 60% of those polled in the state viewed Bush favorably, 34% unfavorably.

But in three polls since then, the gap between those two numbers has narrowed each time, with 52% now viewing Bush favorably and 41% viewing him unfavorably. Bush's job performance ratings are also as low as they have been since polling began in early 2002, though they've changed little in the past two months.

Close contest A series of national polls released in recent days all show a neck-and-neck contest, with Kerry leading some, Bush others. Some polls have shown movement toward Bush since early and mid-March. In virtually all the surveys, the difference between the two candidates is within the margin of polling error.

In the Badger Poll, Bush's 6-point lead in the three-way matchup with Kerry and Nader is "close to the edge of statistical significance," said Ferree, meaning "Bush is probably ahead of Kerry, but not by much." The survey's margin of error is a little over 4 percentage points.

A separate Wisconsin poll released late last week by the American Research Group had Kerry slightly ahead, 46% to 43%, with Nader at 4%.

The Badger Poll is conducted by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center and sponsored by the Journal Sentinel and Capital Times of Madison.

Some trends in the Wisconsin poll are also apparent in the national polling.

For instance, in a Gallup poll released this week, Bush has made gains and moved slightly ahead of Kerry. But the survey pointed to negatives for both candidates. Bush's approval ratings on the economy and terrorism were the lowest Gallup has measured during his presidency. On the other hand, the share of people with a negative view of Kerry had jumped.

Pollster Frank Newport said the recent trend toward Bush measured by Gallup reflected "more a deficit on Kerry's side than a real plus on Bush's side," as the Bush campaign's attacks on Kerry chipped away at the Democrat's "soft" levels of support.

But whether the ad wars have created a different dynamic in battleground states such as Wisconsin than in the rest of the country isn't altogether clear from the polling, and may not be known for a while.

Bush has outspent Democrats, but the picture varies from state to state. According to figures supplied by Republicans, Kerry and allied groups spent a little over $900,000 on ads in Wisconsin last month. According to Democrats, Bush has spent a roughly similar amount.

Both the state poll and national polls underscore how deeply polarized voters are at this early point in the general election campaign.

In the Badger Poll, this shows up in perceptions of Bush's job performance. The poll asks voters to choose among four ratings: excellent, good, fair or poor. Since the last Badger Poll, the number of people giving Bush the highest rating - excellent - went from 11% to 16%. And the number of people giving him the worst rating - poor - also rose, from 22% to 30%. That 30% figure, reflecting the most anti-Bush segment of the electorate, is easily the highest recorded for Bush in the Badger Poll, going back to early 2002.

The poll also highlights the partisan divide among voters. In the Badger Poll, 94% of Republicans have a favorable view of Bush, while 5% have an unfavorable one.

Meanwhile, 18% of Democrats have a favorable view of Bush, while 77% have an unfavorable one.

Kerry also inspires a huge partisan perception gap.

In these numbers as well, the poll points to areas of concern for each candidate. Kerry's popularity among his base - Democrats - is not as overwhelming as Bush's is among Republicans. But Kerry does slightly better than Bush among independents.

Bush spokeswoman Merrill Smith said the poll showed "Wisconsin is very much in play." Republicans view that in itself as a positive, since the state has voted Democratic since 1988, and it had a recent primary that drew attention to Democratic attacks on Bush.

"It's going to be a close race," said Kerry deputy campaign manager Steve Elmendorf, who termed Bush's job ratings "in decline" and said Kerry had come through a period of heavy Bush spending "still tied" nationally.

The Badger Poll numbers cited above are based on the responses of all voting-age adults surveyed. When only registered voters were asked their presidential preference, the results were virtually identical.

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