Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead

[The Vorlon]

Thanks.

Re Survey USA...

They cut a lot of corners...  

In a stable race they should be "ok" - but not great.  In a volitile or quickly change race, I'd have a lot of doubts.

They use pre-recorded voices to do their polling (not live operators) to cut costs, their sample sizes are a bit small, and they draw up their own phone lists.

They do however publish ALL their data which is great, if need be you can always go in and rework the raw data.

Not the worse guys on the block, but not top tier either.

Maybe a B- overall ...?

[Ben.]

Meet the new map... same as the old map...

Delaware (3 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 13.06%

The wise men and women at CBS News / NYTimes polling has declared that this is indeed a battleground state.  Despite the fact that in 2000 it voted more heavily for Gore than such GOP bastions as Vermont and Illinois, I will in expression of my reverance for CBS polling officially be placing this state in the "Tossup" category...
   
Washington (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.58%

Some wise Republicans I know have told me this state is truly in play and that it was a lot closer than the 2000 results would suggest because Maria Cantwell who won Slade Gordon's old Senate seat in 2000 "pumped up" the Democrat numbers here by spending something like $8 million of her own money...

I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry

Michigan (17 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.13%

In addition to generalized job loses in manufacturing, Michigan has been getting double dipped because many Big 3 auto jobs are moving sount as Ford plants shut down in Michigan and Honda plants open up in the South.

Like Washington, I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry

Maine (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.11%

Maine can split their EVS.. who ever wins each of the 2 congressional districts get one EV per, and the winner overall of the sate gets the other two.  Maine 2 CD is very close.  I mention this because if Kerry wins WEst Virginia and New Hampshire, and all other states stay the same, the Electoral College would be 269/269....

Still leans Kerry

Pennsylvania  (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 4.17%

Eight (!) polls in the last two weeks showing anything from Kerry +3 to Bush +7.  Darn close right now, razor thin edge to Bush.  Pennsylvania is, from an economic perspective. the state(among those in the rust beat) that will feel first and most any pickup in jobs and manufacturing.  Based on the 308,000 new jobs in March (plus another 64,000 extra as they revised February upward) I am marginally confident in leaning this state to Bush.

Minnesota (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +2.40%

GOP is very energized in this state.  The "Get out the vote" effort from the GOP has gone from braindead to actually pretty decent in the last 6 years.  I still think if it gets "really" close a lot of Nader votes will "come home" and keep this one for Kerry, but it might be razor close...
   
Oregon   (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.44%   

NOBODY (at least not from this planet) really seems to understand this state politically.  Portland + Eugene are as democratic as it gets, the rest of the state is Deep Blue Bush. It's a battle of turnout.  Are the Tree Huggers more organized than the guys with the Chainsaws, or the other way around?

Haven't seen any polls from anybody I trust.  I'll leave it for Kerry for now.  That's not a "hard" call, just don't have enough evidence either way...

Iowa (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.31%

For reasons that are not totally clear to me, Iowa is trending to Kerry at this point - Polls are showing Kerry at high single digits for a lead.  No reason to flip this one.
   
Wisconsin (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.22%

4 polls I've seen, two show Bush leading, 2 show Kerry leading.  The Bush margins were bigger, but I trust the Kerry polls more... Wisconsin may bounce back fairly fast to Bush however if the new jobs trend stays good..
   
New Mexico (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.06%

Seen three polls, one with Kerry +2, one with a tie, and one with Bush +1.  I haven't got a clue on this state.  Toss a coin, leave it for carry, flip to Bush, take your pick ...
   
Florida (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%

Actually, I have this state pretty solid for Bush.  Florida's economy is actually  in darn good shape.  Brother Jeb is very popular (Despite all the "angry democrat" hyperventalating Brother Jeb won re-election in a semi-landslide of +13 in 2002)  I also don't think Dem turnout has anywhere to go - I think Gore/Brazille turned out every live voter, and a few dead ones too there was to have in 2000.

New Hampshire (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%

Two polls, two weeks apart by the same firm (ARG) has Bush +5 and +6.  ARG is not a wretched firm by any means, but not quite enough for me to flip this state back to Bush.  Less certain about Kerry taking this one than I was.  If I see a poll from a firm I trust showing Bush ahead, I'd flip this state.. (I am surprised... I had this state semi-firm for Kerry a few weeks ago)

Missouri (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +3.34%

Two polls, Bush +6 and Bush +7 - Can't see a reason to flip this one from lean Bush

Ohio (20 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.51%

A real Battleground state.  Ohio has been hit quite hard economically, perhaps even more so than Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  Terrance Group just finished up the "Full Meal Deal" polling of Ohio and had Bush at + 4.7. Apparently they polled the $%$# out of all the swing counties like Montgomery, Franklin, Hamilton, Lukas, and Stark, which tells me the GOP is a bit worried, or at least planning to shore things up early...

This is a firm I deeply respect, but think that this far out the way they do their likely voter models likely pads Bush's lead by a couple points.  Bush barely ahead seems about right to me.  I haven't seen a full set of results from Terrance Group yet, so my opinion is still a bit soft on this one.  Teeter/Hard has also polled the state and I think they publish on Monday.

Nevada (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.55%

Mason-Dixon has Bush at +11.  While I would be surprised if double digits holds, I'll keep this one leaning fairly hard Bush's way.

Tennessee (11 EVs)- 2000 Result Bush + 3.86%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

Arkansas (6 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 5.44%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

West Virginia (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +6.32%

Too close to call.  Saw one poll a tie, the other Kerry +2.  Don't actually trust either poll, so I'll stick with "Lean Kerry" till I get something I trust.  

Louisiana (9 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +7.68%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

Virginia (13 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +-8.04%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

Colorado   (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +8.36%

Colorado is in play... in 2008... but not this year......

Vorlon: could you sketch out how a Bush victory might work and how a Kerry victory might work... I would be very interested to see your take on this....thanks...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not so sure about that... but then again it all depends on how "The South" is defined...

Lee would make a great running mate though.
A Liberal Southerner...

[agcatter]

It does depend on what you consider the South.  W Virginia is not part of the Old Confederacy and is in play.  The 11 states of the Old Confederacy will not be won by Mass lib Kerry.  I know libs will argue about Florida, but in the end it goes by 5 or 6 pts to Bush despite a determined effort by Kerry's campaign.  As far as the rest of the South, there is no Kerry campaign.

[Ben.]

It does depend on what you consider the South.  W Virginia is not part of the Old Confederacy and is in play.  The 11 states of the Old Confederacy will not be won by Mass lib Kerry.  I know libs will argue about Florida, but in the end it goes by 5 or 6 pts to Bush despite a determined effort by Kerry's campaign.  As far as the rest of the South, there is no Kerry campaign.

there has to be some Dem presence to help the Sn campaigns in LA, FL, GA, SC, NC and OK and AR.... but then again AR is as good as won (I know I'll regret saying that!)... GA is definatly going to the GOP... FL and SC are tossups... NC and LA lean to the Dems by a razor thin margin.... IMHO

[© tweed]

I'll say it again:

Outside of Florida, the south is a distant dream for John F'ing Kerry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The South is no different from anyother region... every state votes it's own way...

[© tweed]

The South is no different from anyother region... every state votes it's own way...

Huh?  Alot of regions have all of their states vote the same way...Pacific coast, Northeast, South, etc.

[Ben.]

I'll say it again:

Outside of Florida, the south is a distant dream for John F'ing Kerry.

We you refereing to my post?

I was talking about the senate... thats why the Dems need to pump funds into the south....

[© tweed]

I'll say it again:

Outside of Florida, the south is a distant dream for John F'ing Kerry.

We you refereing to my post?

I was talking about the senate... thats why the Dems need to pump funds into the south....

Oh.  Yes, I was talking about your post.

I don't think we have much of a chance in open southern senate seats with Bush on the ballot, outside of Louisiana and Florida.

The south is no longers ours.  She has left us.

[agcatter]

The South is solid Republican in any Presidential election against a Democratic nominee who is a non southern liberal.  Don't believe me?  Ask the last three Democratic nominees who fit that mold - McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis.  None came within double digits of carrying ANY Southern state.  Not one.  Facts are stubborn things.

However, facts work both ways.  Republicans are now dead in the water in the Northeast (outside of NH), Illinois, and California.  No matter how I wish it were otherwise it isn't going to make the GOP competitive in those areas.

A little more realism - on both sides.  Let's stick to the real battleground which is in the Midwest.

[The Vorlon]

The South is solid Republican in any Presidential election against a Democratic nominee who is a non southern liberal.  Don't believe me?  Ask the last three Democratic nominees who fit that mold - McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis.  None came within double digits of carrying ANY Southern state.  Not one.  Facts are stubborn things.

However, facts work both ways.  Republicans are now dead in the water in the Northeast (outside of NH), Illinois, and California.  No matter how I wish it were otherwise it isn't going to make the GOP competitive in those areas.

A little more realism - on both sides.  Let's stick to the real battleground which is in the Midwest.

By my count, both parties have roughly equal numbers of base states they can count upon in terms of the Electoral college.

Solid Dem

District of Columbia   3
Rhode Island   4
Massachusetts   12
New York 31
Hawaii   4
Connecticut   7
Maryland   10
New Jersey   15
Delaware 3
Illinois   21
California   55
Vermont   3

Total = 168 EVs

Any Republicans here wanna place a bet on the GOP winning any state on this list...?

GOP States

Louisiana   9   
Virginia   13   
Colorado   9   
Georgia   15   
North Carolina   15   
Alabama   9   
Kentucky   8   
Indiana   11   
South Carolina   8   
Mississippi   6   
Kansas   6   
Texas   34   
Oklahoma   7   
South Dakota   3   
Montana   3   
North Dakota 3
Nebraska   5   
Alaska   3   
Idaho   4   
Wyoming   3   
Utah   5
   
Total   179 EVS

Any Democrats wanna place a bet on the Dems winning any of these states...?

Nuff said

[agcatter]

Not me.

[Ben.]

The South is solid Republican in any Presidential election against a Democratic nominee who is a non southern liberal.  Don't believe me?  Ask the last three Democratic nominees who fit that mold - McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis.  None came within double digits of carrying ANY Southern state.  Not one.  Facts are stubborn things.

However, facts work both ways.  Republicans are now dead in the water in the Northeast (outside of NH), Illinois, and California.  No matter how I wish it were otherwise it isn't going to make the GOP competitive in those areas.

A little more realism - on both sides.  Let's stick to the real battleground which is in the Midwest.

By my count, both parties have roughly equal numbers of base states they can count upon in terms of the Electoral college.

Solid Dem

District of Columbia   3
Rhode Island   4
Massachusetts   12
New York 31
Hawaii   4
Connecticut   7
Maryland   10
New Jersey   15
Delaware 3
Illinois   21
California   55
Vermont   3

Total = 168 EVs

Any Republicans here wanna place a bet on the GOP winning any state on this list...?

GOP States

Louisiana   9   
Virginia   13   
Colorado   9   
Georgia   15   
North Carolina   15   
Alabama   9   
Kentucky   8   
Indiana   11   
South Carolina   8   
Mississippi   6   
Kansas   6   
Texas   34   
Oklahoma   7   
South Dakota   3   
Montana   3   
North Dakota 3
Nebraska   5   
Alaska   3   
Idaho   4   
Wyoming   3   
Utah   5
   
Total   179 EVS

Any Democrats wanna place a bet on the Dems winning any of these states...?

Nuff said

In this election NO... a definate NO... in the future and in past elections not all of them will be so solidly GOP...

[Fritz]

I would add Arkansas to the solid Bush column (185 EV for Bush), and Maine and Iowa to the solid Kerry column (179 solid EV for Kerry).  Rasmussen has Kerry leading Bush by 10 points in Iowa, this appears pretty solid.  If you have other polling data from Iowa let me know.

Which leaves as our swing states, by my estimation:

Arizona 10 (lean Bush)
Florida 27
Michigan 17 (lean Kerry)
Minnesota 10 (lean Kerry)
Missouri 11 (lean Bush)
Nevada 5 (lean Bush)
New Hampshire 4 (lean Kerry)
New Mexico 5
Ohio 20
Oregon 7 (lean Kerry)
Pennsylvania 21
Tennessee 11 (lean Bush)
Washington 11 (lean Kerry)
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10 (lean Kerry)

Total Lean Bush: 37 EV (+185 solid = 222)
Total Lean Kerry: 59 EV (+179 solid = 238)
True Swingers: 78 EV
Total Swing States: 174 EV

Edit: put New Mexico in the tossup column

[Ben.]

I would add Arkansas to the solid Bush column (185 EV for Bush), and Maine and Iowa to the solid Kerry column (179 solid EV for Kerry).  Rasmussen has Kerry leading Bush by 10 points in Iowa, this appears pretty solid.  If you have other polling data from Iowa let me know.

Which leaves as our swing states, by my estimation:

Arizona 10 (lean Bush)
Florida 27
Michigan 17 (lean Kerry)
Minnesota 10 (lean Kerry)
Missouri 11 (lean Bush)
Nevada 5 (lean Bush)
New Hampshire 4 (lean Kerry)
New Mexico 5 (lean Kerry)
Ohio 20
Oregon 7 (lean Kerry)
Pennsylvania 21
Tennessee 11 (lean Bush)
Washington 11 (lean Kerry)
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10 (lean Kerry)

Total Lean Bush: 37 EV (+185 solid = 222)
Total Lean Kerry: 64 EV (+179 solid = 243)
True Swingers: 73 EV
Total Swing States: 174 EV

I am really suprised about Iowa.... i expected a trending towards Bush same for MN not seen it in either... not sure you could place it as solid Kerry though.... But Maine isnt going to Bush IMHO...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The South is no different from anyother region... every state votes it's own way...

Huh?  Alot of regions have all of their states vote the same way...Pacific coast, Northeast, South, etc.

No... NC and AL do NOT vote in the same way...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pet hate of mine: Internet assumptions of "solid" states... and that the final result of 2000 was in someway a "perfect" reflection of the politics of each state (that "red state v blue state" bullsh*t)... the Internet has destroyed peoples ability to keep things in perspective... Bah...

[The Vorlon]

I would add Arkansas to the solid Bush column (185 EV for Bush), and Maine and Iowa to the solid Kerry column (179 solid EV for Kerry).  Rasmussen has Kerry leading Bush by 10 points in Iowa, this appears pretty solid.  If you have other polling data from Iowa let me know.

Which leaves as our swing states, by my estimation:

Arizona 10 (lean Bush)
Florida 27
Michigan 17 (lean Kerry)
Minnesota 10 (lean Kerry)
Missouri 11 (lean Bush)
Nevada 5 (lean Bush)
New Hampshire 4 (lean Kerry)
New Mexico 5 (lean Kerry)
Ohio 20
Oregon 7 (lean Kerry)
Pennsylvania 21
Tennessee 11 (lean Bush)
Washington 11 (lean Kerry)
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10 (lean Kerry)

Total Lean Bush: 37 EV (+185 solid = 222)
Total Lean Kerry: 64 EV (+179 solid = 243)
True Swingers: 73 EV
Total Swing States: 174 EV

I am really suprised about Iowa.... i expected a trending towards Bush same for MN not seen it in either... not sure you could place it as solid Kerry though.... But Maine isnt going to Bush IMHO...

I personally would keep Iowa on the "in play" list...

One or two polls does not a trend make... but thats a quibble, not a hard core disagreement...

Both parties internal polls have it close, and both are spending money there, which tells you something... in politics, as in life, if you want the truth, follow the cash...

Other than that...

You are, IMHO, pretty darn close.... Nothing there I would disagree with enough to call you wrong..

What is the old saying..?

 is it...

"Great Minds thing alike..."

or

"Fools never differ"

Should be one of those two anyway...

A few slight changes of nuance is all...

The Swing states, in order of likelyhood, starting with the most likely for Kerry, moving down to the most likely for Bush, I am more optimistic for Kerry in 4 states, more Optimistic for Bush in 6..

Washington 11 (lean Kerry)Lean to semi-solid Kerry
Michigan 17 (lean Kerry)Lean to semi-solid Kerry
Oregon 7 (lean Kerry)Lean to semi-solid Kerry
Minnesota 10 (lean Kerry)agreed
Wisconsin 10 (lean Kerry)agreed

West Virginia 5 (Tossup)Leans to Kerry

Delaware Officially placed in 'tossup" Category in honor of CBS news polling division

New Hampshire 4  (Lean Kerry)possible flip back to Bush?

lean Kerry - I agree.. but... two polls two weeks part by a semi-reliable firm had Bush +5 and +6, give me a poll from a firm I trust showing Bush ahead and I'd flip this one back...

New Mexico 5 (lean Kerry)Pure tossup

Pennsylvania 21 (Tossup)Marginal Bush lean IMHO

Florida 27 (tossup)leans Bush

I think this state, while still close, I a lot stronger for Bush than folks think...

Ohio 20 (tossup)leans Bush

The GOP has a lot more money than the Dems... AND they go to absolute total war to save Ohio, if need be.. Cash counts in this one...

Nevada 5 (lean Bush)agreed
Missouri 11(lean Bush)agreed
Tennessee 11 (lean Bush)(almost a solid Bush)
Arizona 10(lean Bush) (almost a solid Bush)

[Ben.]

Pet hate of mine: Internet assumptions of "solid" states... and that the final result of 2000 was in someway a "perfect" reflection of the politics of each state (that "red state v blue state" bullsh*t)... the Internet has destroyed peoples ability to keep things in perspective... Bah...

The internet and especially forums create a “hot house” environment where most stories and events and polls get reported, get a hell of a lot of scrutiny and blow up way beyond their real significance by both Dems and GOP in a very short space of time…. but its fun and that’s why we do it....

[© tweed]

The South is no different from anyother region... every state votes it's own way...

Huh?  Alot of regions have all of their states vote the same way...Pacific coast, Northeast, South, etc.

No... NC and AL do NOT vote in the same way...

They have in every presidential election since 1968.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The South is no different from anyother region... every state votes it's own way...

Huh?  Alot of regions have all of their states vote the same way...Pacific coast, Northeast, South, etc.

No... NC and AL do NOT vote in the same way...

They have in every presidential election since 1968.

No... the person that won the state has been the same since the 70's... But they do NOT vote in the same way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pet hate of mine: Internet assumptions of "solid" states... and that the final result of 2000 was in someway a "perfect" reflection of the politics of each state (that "red state v blue state" bullsh*t)... the Internet has destroyed peoples ability to keep things in perspective... Bah...

The internet and especially forums create a “hot house” environment where most stories and events and polls get reported, get a hell of a lot of scrutiny and blow up way beyond their real significance by both Dems and GOP in a very short space of time…. but its fun and that’s why we do it....

I know... but it can get VERY irritating at times...
Blogs are worse than forums...

[The Vorlon]

The South is no different from anyother region... every state votes it's own way...

Huh?  Alot of regions have all of their states vote the same way...Pacific coast, Northeast, South, etc.

No... NC and AL do NOT vote in the same way...

They have in every presidential election since 1968.

Your map has a lot of blue..

[angus]

Pet hate of mine: Internet assumptions of "solid" states... and that the final result of 2000 was in someway a "perfect" reflection of the politics of each state (that "red state v blue state" bullsh*t)... the Internet has destroyed peoples ability to keep things in perspective... Bah...

it hasn't been good for peoples typing skills either.