Mew Research Center (Exit poll results part 2: Sen-Prez Crosstabs)

[Kitteh]

Good evening, ladies and gentlecats, and welcome to the grand opening of Mew Research Center, Atlasia's premier institute for public opinion research. We have just finished our inaugural amazing super-awesome exit poll of the February 2013 election. My assistant will now present the results:



Thank you all for gathering here. There were 60 voters in our exit poll, a strong sample size. First off, the first-preference results:



Marokai won strongly in the first round, with Cathcon in second and Kalwejt a distant third, as in the actual vote.

Second preferences:



Marokai wins in a landslide, as in the actual vote.

In the At-Large senate race:



Adam Griffin comes out narrowly ahead, Napoleon in second and Goldwater in third.

In the final round of the senate:



Napoleon wins.

Now, onto some more interesting stuff.

The ideological breakdown confirms the obvious: Atlasia is definitely a left-leaning country:



Total left: 60%
Total center:12%
Total right:28%

In total, 60%of Atlasians describe themselves as left-of-center. It's not a coincidence that Marokai also received 60% of the vote.  This poll shows that the left-wing, center-left, and right-of-center factions all number roughly the same (30%, 30%, and 28%). This reflects the three major parties Atlasia, all of which are of similar size.  It also shows just how far the Right has to go to win. Assuming the Right holds down all centrist and right-leaning voters and takes 40% of center-left voters against a left-wing candidate, a the right-leaning candidate would still only win a narrow 52%-48% victory. 40% of center-left voters seems to be the magic number for the Right in most scenarios, but convincing 40% of center-leftists not to vote for a left-of-center candidate is a very tough job.

Party distribution:



TPP is over-represented here compared to actual registration numbers. Mew Research Center believes this is because the poll asked which party people "support or feel closest too", so evidently some people support or feel close to TPP but are not members.

The next results are hard to present in chart form, since the long wording of the options makes them hard to display. Here are the top issues cited in deciding how to vote. Responses are on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being not at all important and 5 being very important. Average score of answers:

Presidential:
General ideology - 3.63
Candidate personality - 3.52
Economic issues - 3.45
Candidate's past activity level - 3.44
Game reform - 3.39
Party affiliation - 3.13
Social issues - 3.10
Campaigns - 2.97
Annexation - 2.32
Dogs - 2.09

At-Large Senate:
Candidate personality - 3.93
General ideology - 3.59
Party affiliation - 3.36
Economic issues - 3.21
Candidate's past activity level - 3.05
Social issues - 2.91
Campaigns - 2.84
Game reform - 2.79
Dogs - 2.20
Annexation - 1.95

A few notes about these results:

*It's interesting that campaigns mattered very little. Most people cited things, like general ideology or personality, that are already determined before a candidate starts campaigning. It looks like most voters make up their minds very early in the campaign, rather than waiting to see how a candidate campaigns or what their proposals are.

*It's worth noting that more people cited general ideology than any particular type of issue. It seems this election did not hinge on any one issue.

Another way to look at this is by which issues were more important in the Presidential vs. Senate race. Below are the issue's importance in the Presidential race minus their importance in the Senatorial race. In green are issues that were more important in the Presidential, in red are issues that were more important in the Senatorial:

Game reform: 0.60
Candidate's past activity level: 0.39
Annexation: 0.37
Economic issues: 0.24
General ideology: 0.04
Dogs: -0.11
Campaigns: -0.13
Social issues: -0.19
Party affiliation: -0.23
Candidate personality: -0.41

These results are not surprising. Game reform was much more important in the Presidential race, where Marokai made it one of his central campaign planks, than in the Senatorial race, where it wasn't much discussed. On the other hand, personality was a much bigger issue in the Senate race, where people's highly polarized views of Napoleon where a large part of the race.

Now, favorability. First, the Presidential candidates. The first chart is their average rating on a scale of 1-5, the second is the percentage giving each rating (strongly unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, neutral/unsure, somewhat favorable, and strongly favorable):

 



Candidates:

Marokai:
Favorable: 69%
Neutral: 15%
Unfavorable: 16%
Net favorable: +53%
Positive intensity (strongly favorable-strongly unfavorable): +24%

Cathcon:
Favorable: 65%
Neutral: 16%
Unfavorable: 21%
Net favorable: +44%
Positive intensity: +26%

Scott:
Favorable: 59%
Neutral: 21%
Unfavorable: 19%
Net favorable: +40%
Positive intensity: +22%

Kalwejt:
Favorable: 55%
Neutral: 15%
Unfavorable: 29%
Net favorable: +26%
Positive intensity: +17%

Winfield:
Favorable: 26%
Neutral: 19%
Unfavorable: 55%
Net favorable: -29%
Positive intensity: -19%

Keystone Phil:
Favorable: 24%
Neutral: 23%
Unfavorable: 53%
Net favorable: -29%
Positive intensity: -21%

The top two candidates, Marokai and Cathcon, are the most favorably viewed by Atlasians, not surprisingly. Scott and Kalwejt also are strongly liked, while Winfield and Keystone Phil are...not.

Now for the At-Large Senate candidates:





Adam Griffin:
Favorable: 68%
Neutral: 19%
Unfavorable: 13%
Net favorable: +55%
Positive intensity: +29%

Fezzyfestoon
Favorable: 66%
Neutral: 24%
Unfavorable: 11%
Net favorable: +55%
Positive intensity: +19%

Goldwater
Favorable: 51%
Neutral: 27%
Unfavorable: 22%
Net favorable: +29%
Positive intensity: +18%

Napoleon
Favorable: 50%
Neutral: 9%
Unfavorable: 42%
Net favorable: +8%
Positive intensity: -2%

What is clear from these results is that Napoleon is a very polarizing figure. He has slightly more people that like him than that don't, but people who don't like him tend to really not like him; strongly unfavorable outnumbers strongly favorable. Napoleon also has by far the lowest "Neutral/Unsure" of any candidate. No other candidate, for President or Senate, polls the same way Napoleon does. This poll shows that Napoleon was a candidate unlike any other in this election.


This concludes the first part of Mew Research Center's presentation of this exit poll. Still to come are breakdowns of the crosstabs and even more detailed analysis. Thanks to all who voted!

[tmthforu94]

Well done!

[Spamage]

Well done!

[Adam Griffin]

FWIW, I'm glad to see I was the most popular person on the ballot in this election.

[Napoleon]

This polling proves Atlasia is a racist nation.

[Kitteh]

This polling proves Atlasia is a racist nation.

wut

[Napoleon]

This polling proves Atlasia is a racist nation.

wut

27.59% of Atlasians hate Italians. I know Snowstalker was one of them.

[LastVoter]

This polling proves Atlasia is a racist nation.

You can't claim both white privilege and cry racism at the same time buddy.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

This polling proves Atlasia is a racist nation.

wut

27.59% of Atlasians hate Italians. I know Snowstalker was one of them.

I voted somewhat favourable for Phil and strongly unfavourable for you.
Therefore, you're wrong.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Well done!

[fezzyfestoon]

It really speaks volumes to the quality of the Senate race that I have the lowest negatives and still got run into the ground. Well done, men. That was one of the best elections I've been a candidate in.

[Kitteh]

It really speaks volumes to the quality of the Senate race that I have the lowest negatives and still got run into the ground. Well done, men. That was one of the best elections I've been a candidate in.

One thing that probably contributed to your loss is that a lot of your favorables were "somewhat  favorable". So lots of people liked you but you weren't really strongly liked by all that many. That translated into lots of 2nd and 3rd preferences but not enough 1sts.

[fezzyfestoon]

It really speaks volumes to the quality of the Senate race that I have the lowest negatives and still got run into the ground. Well done, men. That was one of the best elections I've been a candidate in.

One thing that probably contributed to your loss is that a lot of your favorables were "somewhat  favorable". So lots of people liked you but you weren't really strongly liked by all that many. That translated into lots of 2nd and 3rd preferences but not enough 1sts.

Exactly. Had it not been for the unusual strength of the field, any one of us could probably have run away with it.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Thanks a lot, dawg.

[Goldwater]

Well done!

[Kitteh]

Thanks a lot, dawg.

Dawg? This is Mew Research Center.

[Kitteh]

Hello all, and welcome to the second part of Mew Research Center's analysis of our Amazing Super-Awesome Exit Poll.

To start things off, here's a simple chart: how people who voted for one of the "other" candidates in the first round of the presidential race voted in the second:



Overall, people who voted for "other" candidates in the first round went to Marokai 56%-44%. This chart isn't all that interesting. Here's a slightly more interesting one, a comparison of how voters voted in the presidential election and the at-large senatorial election:



The results of this are still nothing surpising. Here's the same thing for the second round of the at-large senate election:



The voters for right-leaning candidates and Scott, the liberal, went strongly for Napoleon. The voters for left-leaning candidates outnumbered them, but they were much less united behind Griffin and a significant minority of Marokai's and Kalwejt's supporters voted for Napoleon.

The left-right split in the senate race really becomes clear when you break it down by presidential second preference:


Marokai's voters went for Griffin and then Fezzy, while Cathcon's voters went for Goldwater and then Napoleon. Again, although Marokai voters are the vast majority, Napoleon was able to get a decent amount of support from them while Griffin and Fezzy got none from Cathcon's voters.

The same thing shows in the second round:



Marokai's voters went about 2-1 for Griffin over Napoleon, but among Cathcon voters Napoleon won by a more than 60 point margin.

To further demonstrate this, it helps to flip things around and compare senate votes to presidential ones. Here is how voters for each Senate candidate broke down in the second round of the Presidential election:



There's a huge polarization here: Griffin and Fezzy voters went 100% for Marokai while Goldwater voters went almost 100% for Cathcon. Napoleon is the only one with any kind of crossover support. But it is very interesting that although Napoleon is generally considered center-left, his voters went 2-1 for the center-right candidate in the Presidential election. Bear in mind these are first round voters only, so this excludes federalists who first-preferenced Goldwater and second-preferenced Napoleon.

To wrap this set up, here's one final chart, showing how voter's second-round senate vote compared to their second-round presidential vote:



This chart shows the same trends I mentioned above.


This was a lot of charts to throw at you, but combined they all one important takeaway: the coalition that elected Napoleon was from the Atlasian right. Napoleon's views are generally left-of-center and so were many of his supporters. But his voters in both rounds were definitely to the right of the Atlasian political center. Part of this might have to do with the fact that the Overton window of Atlasian politics is significantly to the left of that in America, so people who are slightly to the left of the American political center may be slightly to the right of the Atlasian political center. Regardless of why, Napoleon's voters in both rounds were definitely to the right of the average Atlasian.


As you'll see later, this is an important fact that says a lot about Atlasian politics going forward, much more than just Napoleon. More to come in the next post

[fezzyfestoon]

Great work. This offers further evidence that I got completely shafted by my own people. I'm looking forward to constructively channeling this disappointing animosity towards legislation. There's nothing like losing an election to stoke that fire in your belly.

[Napoleon]

Great work. This offers further evidence that I got completely shafted by my own people.

Are you referring to your politics being slightly to the right of my own? How did you vote in the exit poll btw. I voted left-wing. I say slightly, but it could be more significant. I think I'm more left wing than the "hard" left gives me credit for and more moderate than the right gives me credit for, so I tend to be stuck between a rock and a hard place most of the time.

[Napoleon]

I'm wondering what the breakdown would like if we looked at the actual voting instead of the exit poll data to examine this- with twice as large of a sample, there could be significant shifts.

[Napoleon]

This was a lot of charts to throw at you, but combined they all one important takeaway: the coalition that elected Napoleon was from the Atlasian right. Napoleon's views are generally left-of-center and so were many of his supporters. But his voters in both rounds were definitely to the right of the Atlasian political center. Part of this might have to do with the fact that the Overton window of Atlasian politics is significantly to the left of that in America, so people who are slightly to the left of the American political center may be slightly to the right of the Atlasian political center. Regardless of why, Napoleon's voters in both rounds were definitely to the right of the average Atlasian.

Sort of reminds me of this, in a way:

Senate Races:

Northeast:

First Ballot

Napoleon 10 (Napoleon, redcommander, Holmes, upcomingyouthvoter, Oakvale, Winfield, Lief, Leftbehind, cinyc, Keystone Phil)
Marokai Blue 8 (Marokai, homely, Smash, Elyski, Smid, Cincinnatus, Rowan Brandon, NiK)
Wormyguy 5 (wormyguy, Dallasfan, Ghost_white, FallenMorgan, Giovanni)
Belgian Socialist 3 (Hatman, Obamaisdabest, sbane)
Invalid 1 (Jake Matthews)

Second Ballot
Belgian Socialist eliminated, votes of Hatman, Obamaisdabest and sbane redistributed

Napoleon 11 (Napoleon, redcommander, Holmes, upcomingyouthvoter, Oakvale, Winfield, Obamaisdabest, Lief, Leftbehind, cinyc, Keystone Phil)
Marokai Blue 9 (Marokai, homely, Smash, Elyski, Smid, Hatman, Cincinnatus, Rowan Brandon, NiK)
Wormyguy 5 (wormyguy, Dallasfan, Ghost_white, FallenMorgan, Giovanni)
Exhausted 1 (sbane)
Invalid 1 (Jake Matthews)

Third Ballot
wormyguy eliminated, votes of wormyguy, Dallasfan, Ghost_white, FallenMorgan and Giovanni redistributed)

Napoleon 13 (Napoleon, redcommander, Holmes, upcomingyouthvoter, Obamaisdabest, Dallasfan, FallenMorgan, Oakvale, Winfield, Lief, Leftbehind, cinyc, Keystone Phil)
Marokai Blue 12 (Marokai, homely, Smash, Elyski, Smid, Hatman, wormyguy, Ghost_white, Cincinnatus, Rowan Brandon, Giovanni, NiK)
Exhausted 1 (sbane)
Invalid 1 (Jake Matthews)

I hereby certify that Napoleon has won the Northeast Senate race!

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Aww, I liked being the center of attention. no, I hate it!!

[fezzyfestoon]

Great work. This offers further evidence that I got completely shafted by my own people.

Are you referring to your politics being slightly to the right of my own? How did you vote in the exit poll btw. I voted left-wing.

I'm referring to the fact that I not only single-handedly kept the Atlasian right-wing alive through the Republican Party, but I maintained a powerful, competitive, active group of conservative Atlasians that overperformed greatly in the political landscape. Nobody over there that was here when I was seemed to think that was worth bringing up to their colleagues. I believe I voted Center because I planned on using concepts from all political angles. Now my flourishing bitterness makes me want to abandon that plan seeing as nothing I do could possibly shake current partisan obligations if my record doesn't. They seem fine without me, anyway. I don't mind one bit that they leaned towards you in the end, but I was thoroughly snubbed and that's what bothers me.

[Napoleon]

Great work. This offers further evidence that I got completely shafted by my own people.

Are you referring to your politics being slightly to the right of my own? How did you vote in the exit poll btw. I voted left-wing.

I'm referring to the fact that I not only single-handedly kept the Atlasian right-wing alive through the Republican Party, but I maintained a powerful, competitive, active group of conservative Atlasians that overperformed greatly in the political landscape. Nobody over there that was here when I was seemed to think that was worth bringing up to their colleagues. I believe I voted Center because I planned on using concepts from all political angles. Now my flourishing bitterness makes me want to abandon that plan seeing as nothing I do could possibly shake current partisan obligations, apparently. I don't mind one bit that they leaned towards you in the end, but I was thoroughly snubbed and that's what bothers me.

That was a long time ago though. I wasn't around then and I imagine most voters weren't. Looking at that race between Marokai and myself less than two years ago, only 11 out of 27 voted in the most recent election. That's far less than half. But now you get a chance to demonstrate your abilities in the Northeast Assembly, so I'm excited to see that.

Atlasia is still politics and politics moves quickly. It was four months ago that the right hated me so much that many of them preferenced a known troll over me.

[Goldwater]

Great work. This offers further evidence that I got completely shafted by my own people.

Are you referring to your politics being slightly to the right of my own? How did you vote in the exit poll btw. I voted left-wing.

I'm referring to the fact that I not only single-handedly kept the Atlasian right-wing alive through the Republican Party, but I maintained a powerful, competitive, active group of conservative Atlasians that overperformed greatly in the political landscape. Nobody over there that was here when I was seemed to think that was worth bringing up to their colleagues. I believe I voted Center because I planned on using concepts from all political angles. Now my flourishing bitterness makes me want to abandon that plan seeing as nothing I do could possibly shake current partisan obligations if my record doesn't. They seem fine without me, anyway. I don't mind one bit that they leaned towards you in the end, but I was thoroughly snubbed and that's what bothers me.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. After all, the final round was between Napoleon & Griffin, not you and Napoleon.

[fezzyfestoon]

It's not something that will detract from my performing my job or my relationship with posters I've been associating with since my return. And I don't mean to detract from the support you and Goldwater both earned and deserved. I ran all the voting through Excel as well, so like I said, this is just adding to what I already knew. There's a distinct group of Atlasians I was thinking would be as big part a of my politics now as they were when I was at my peak, but that's clearly not the case. And again, it's not about the fact that I wasn't the conservative candidate of choice, I shouldn't have been, it's about being ignored. So no harm done, I wouldn't have won regardless. It's the first layer to what I'm sure will be a greatly off-balance political cake going forward, it just happens to be one I will remember negatively...all in good fun.