Nate publishes first 2014 Senate rankings
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:15:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Nate publishes first 2014 Senate rankings
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Nate publishes first 2014 Senate rankings  (Read 2232 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 20, 2013, 09:27:34 PM »

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/can-republicans-win-the-senate-in-2014/



Average prediction: D 50.4 R 49.6

Obviously it's all guesswork so far. With a few reserves (I'd rank AR as likely D and NC as lean D, among others), this seems about right.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2013, 09:29:09 PM »

I would put Arkansas as toss up and that is my map
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2013, 09:30:37 PM »

NC should be Lean D and ME Safe R. Otherwise good.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2013, 09:36:33 PM »

NC should be Lean D and ME Safe R. Otherwise good.

Collins could retire.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2013, 09:39:39 PM »


I just remember reading that most higher-up Republicans think she won't.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2013, 09:45:54 PM »

Collins hasn't given any indication that she will, but then again Snowe didn't either till she did. Otherwise agreed with Miles about NC given that none of the Pubs there seem particularly eye-catching.

What's really surprised me is MT- didn't expect Baucus to be vulnerable. Depends on the field and national environment.

Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2013, 10:18:01 PM »

Nate's model didn't have Tester winning, either...
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2013, 10:19:11 PM »

I don't think anyone expects Baucus to lose at this stage.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2013, 06:15:07 AM »

2014 might actually not be a bad year, despite playing defense from the good year 2008.

But it depends if Obama can get something through in Congress and if the economy starts taking off next year (the signs are not bad). Maybe 3% growth ?
Logged
Asian Nazi
d32123
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,523
China


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2013, 03:30:18 PM »

I agree with his analysis but really nothing new there.  Illustrates just how much 2012 hurt the Senate Republicans in the long run.  They'd probably have a >50% chance of taking back the Senate in 2014 had they not underachieved so much last November.  I mean, seriously, they should've had MT, ND, MO, and IN in the bag.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2013, 03:42:44 PM »

TBF, I don't think any of us in our wildest imaginations thought of anything happening like the rape idiocies in IN/MO before they did. (I did have suspicions about Akin, but I'm suspicious about pure RR socons in general) As for ND/MT, crap campaigns/candidates were the reason.

Speaking of ND, Cotton/Fox/Daines, if they run, will need to defuse "hopscotch" if they want a clear shot at the Dem incumbents. "
Logged
Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2013, 02:31:12 AM »

It's worth nothing that while Nate Silver's 2012 Presidential forecast was highly accurate, his 2012 Senate forecast was not so accurate.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2013, 08:54:29 AM »

It's worth nothing that while Nate Silver's 2012 Presidential forecast was highly accurate, his 2012 Senate forecast was not so accurate.

He got ND wrong, which pivoted on the candidate winning narrowly in a state where individual campaigning can make a difference against tough fundamentals, which is forgivable. MT he was further off, with Tester winning handily thanks to a third party candidate. Was there anything else?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.037 seconds with 12 queries.