The 2012 House elections under the 2001-2011 maps

[Mr.Phips]

I am going to try and see what the 2012 House elections would have looked like under the 2001-2011 redistricting.

I am only going to list the seats where there would have been a change.

AR-04(R+1).  Ross still retires and Dems lose the seat.
CA-45(Even).  Bono-Mack loses by an even bigger margin in a slightly more Dem seat. 
FL-08(D+1).  Demmings runs here and knocks off Webster in a Dem trending seat.
FL-22(D+2).  Either Murphy or Frankel knocks off West here in a Dem tilting seat.
IL-17(D+3).  Busto's barely beats Schilling here in a more Republican district.
IN-02(D+3).  Mullen holds here for Dems in a more Dem seat.
MD-06(D+3).  Bartlett holds on handily here in a heavily Republican seat.
MI-01(D+4).  McDowell beats Benishek here in a slightly more Dem seat.
MI-07(D+5).  Schaurer runs for his old seat and wins it back due to it being slightly more Dem and his home county being included in the district.
MI-11(D+6).  Dems pick up McCotter's slightly Dem leaning old seat.
NV-03(D+7).  Titus runs for her old seat and wins it back.
NH-01(D+8)
NH-02(D+9)
NY-19(D+10).  Maloney beats Hayworth more narrowly in a less Dem district. 
NY-25(D+11).  Maffei beats Buerkle by a slightly lessor margin.
NY-26.  Hochul holds on. 
NC-02(D+12).  Etheridge easily wins back his old seat against won term fluke Ellmers.
OH-01(D+13).  Driehaus wins back his old seat against right winger Chabot. 
OH-06(D+14) Wilson wins back his old seat.
OH-12(D+15). Paula Brooks knocks off Tiberi in this ticking time bomb of a seat for Republicans. 
OH-15(D+16). A strong Democrat(not the underperforming Kilroy) beats right winger Stivers in this second Columbus ticking time bomb seat. 
PA-06(D+17).  Democrats finally beat Gerlach in this now clearly Dem leaning seat. 
PA-07(D+18).  Sestak or Lentz beat Meehan in this Dem seat. 
PA-11(D+19). Barletta is toast in this very Democratic locally and nationally seat. 
OK-02(D+18).  Dems still lose this one when Boren retires. 
AZ-08(D+17).  Barber is unable to hold onto this more Republican seat. 

Here we have it, Democrats get 210 seats here to the Republicans' 225.  Appears that redistricting gave Republicans nine seats more than what they otherwise would have had. 

[Skill and Chance]

Well you have to remember that D's had most of the underpopulated districts, so while they lose in terms of packed districts (even on a neutral map in non-SW states), the gain a malapportionment dividend as the decade goes on.  The average PVI of the nation will always be most D in the _8 year and most R in the _2 year with the current coalitions because those Southern exurban districts that have been doubling in population over the decade vote R.   

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So we would of lost here (FL-22) under the old borders anyway.

[Mr.Phips]

So we would of lost here (FL-22) under the old borders anyway.

Absolutely.  If West couldnt win in an R+3 district, there was no way he could win a D+1 one. 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So we would of lost here (FL-22) under the old borders anyway.

Absolutely.  If West couldnt win in an R+3 district, there was no way he could win a D+1 one. 

Well, I meant Adam Hasner, who lost by 4-5 points, but yes, no Republican was going to win in my district this year.

[Mr.Phips]

So we would of lost here (FL-22) under the old borders anyway.

Absolutely.  If West couldnt win in an R+3 district, there was no way he could win a D+1 one. 

Well, I meant Adam Hasner, who lost by 4-5 points, but yes, no Republican was going to win in my district this year.

Hasner ended up losing by 10.  The new FL-22 is probably just out of reach for Republicans.  FL-18 is a much better target.