My guess...The Democrats face a distinct disadvantage due to the fact that their ticket is not broad, geographically. As well, unlike a Lincoln/Reagan ticket, they lack the appeal to as broad a swath of the population. The Republicans on the other hand already have practically every Republican in the bag, plus a variety of other characters drawn to Lincoln. Libertarians commit suicide or write someone in, possibly Grover Cleveland or Thomas Jefferson. I think this map is actually being merciful to the Democrat, though I may have overestimated Republican strength in the West (due to Lincoln's modern-day celebrity combined with Reagan's homestate). The debate of course draws up the positive and negative aspects of all four guys' presidencies, including marital infidelity, deficits, breaches of constitutionality, scandal, and all the rest. Despite the admiration that a large part of the population had for these four men at the beginning of the race, it ends on quite a negative note.
Poll
