The electoral map in 10 years (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 05:50:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  The electoral map in 10 years (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The electoral map in 10 years  (Read 17376 times)
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,843
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

« on: March 21, 2013, 11:13:38 AM »

Here is my rough projection.The demographic shift in Louisiana suggests a hard turn to the right. FL will go right as well as Rubio becomes the face of the state and rallies Hispanics. Also, as the GOP drops its stances on gay marriage and marijuana, I see NH and Maine leaning Republican. Iowa I think could do a 180 and go GOP just because of changing positions within the party, but I am not sure. Meanwhile, VA and NC will be in the Democratic column because of demographic shifts. NV continues its march to the left. Wisconsin and Ohio become Midwest Democratic strongholds because of the increasingly progressive culture in the north central US. Arizona will go to the Democrats eventually as well.


Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,843
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2015, 09:59:06 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2015, 10:02:59 AM by Mr. Illini »

Gotta love the legions predicting that Wisconsin and Iowa are going to be R trends despite the evidence. Minnesota is likely to trend R while the opposite will be seen in Wisconsin. This is because a greater percentage of MN's population exists along the shores of Superior, a historically D area that is clearly going R.

PA and MN show much more evidence of a shift toward the GOP than OH and WI, do it is plausible that within 10 years each will surpass in swing state status (as seen on map below).

Same goes with NH and ME. Legions predicting that they will trend R over the next decade despite opposite evidence.

As for a "more libertarian GOP," new social issues are always on the horizon. They do not go away.

I think that in 10 years, we will be looking at something like this:

90% = safe
50% = likely
30% = lean
gray = toss up



And without shading to make it cleaner to read:

Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,843
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2015, 11:04:31 AM »

Why do you think IA will be more R than PA?

Addressed to whom?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.019 seconds with 12 queries.