The electoral map in 10 years

[old timey villain]

As I've said before, there's really no way to predict the politics of the future. Suppose somebody asked this question in 1983. Would anybody have predicted the strong Democratic shift in states like New Jersey, Vermont, California, Connecticut, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire? If someone had claimed that in the 1992 election, the Democratic nominee would win all of these states I think they would have been laughed out of the room. If somebody in the 1950s claimed that the 1964 Republican nominee would sweep the deep south, despite losing in a landslide nationwide, they'd probably be institutionalized.

[old timey villain]

Here is my rough projection.The demographic shift in Louisiana suggests a hard turn to the right. FL will go right as well as Rubio becomes the face of the state and rallies Hispanics. Also, as the GOP drops its stances on gay marriage and marijuana, I see NH and Maine leaning Republican. Iowa I think could do a 180 and go GOP just because of changing positions within the party, but I am not sure. Meanwhile, VA and NC will be in the Democratic column because of demographic shifts. NV continues its march to the left. Wisconsin and Ohio become Midwest Democratic strongholds because of the increasingly progressive culture in the north central US. Arizona will go to the Democrats eventually as well.

How does NC become safe D while Georgia remains safe R? Those two states are very similar and are experiencing pretty much the same political and demographic trends. If anything both states become lean R/tossup in 10 years, with NC a little farther along than Georgia.

And Maine will stay safe D, unless the entire Republican party becomes like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

[old timey villain]

Why is Georgia potentially competitive in the near future, but not South Carolina?

It's just demographically closer to being a swing state than South Carolina.  I'd say the order of coastal Southern states goes (from bluest to reddest) Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama.

True, Georgia is much more diverse.  Still, South Carolina gets far more Northern transplants than Alabama, Mississippi, or Louisiana.  Politically, South Carolina seems to be more like Georgia than those three Gulf Coast states.

A lot of those transplants are retirees, who mostly vote R. I think Nate Silver has a good post on the subject.

Yes, most of those transplants are of the Republican persuasion. Beaufort county SC is a hot spot for retirees (Hilton Head) and it's pretty safe Republican. Same thing for Myrtle Beach and Horry county. Also, SC has no major city that can offer Dems a solid core of votes. The growth is happening either in resort communities, suburbs of cities in other states like York county (Charlotte suburb) or the upstate, which is really a large conurbation of small cities linked together by sprawl.

Georgia's growth is different. Most importantly, the state's minority population is growing much quicker. SC's black share of the population has declined over the last 10 years while Georgia's has grown. Also, unlike SC Georgia has Atlanta, whose urban core is growing larger by the day. Since the recession growth in the suburbs has slowed considerably while growth in the urban area inside I-285 has increased. If this continues then Democratic votes in places like Fulton and Dekalb counties will be able to better counterbalance Republican votes in places like Forsyth, Cherokee and Paulding counties. What should be most worrisome to Republicans is that they can no longer count on Cobb and Gwinnett to send a flood of votes their way. Both counties have become more competitive in presidential elections.