Italy 2013 official results thread

[Keystone Phil]

Which regions are left to count in both chambers?

Lombardy still has a lot out. Other than that, I think most of the count left is in the south.

[Tender Branson]

VOTE COUNT UPDATE:

Senate (73% in)

32.31% BERSANI
29.94% BERLUSCONI
23.89% GRILLO
  9.18% MONTI

LEAD: B+2.37 (trend: declining)

Chamber (38% in)

31.70% BERSANI
26.94% BERLUSCONI
25.57% GRILLO
10.47% MONTI

LEAD: B+4.76 (trend: declining)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Regions with over 3/4 in:

- Piemonte: Right+0.5
- FVG: Left+0.75
- Liguria: Left+9
- ER: Left+20
- Toscana: Left+22
- Umbria: Left+12
- Marche: Left+11
- Molise: Right+0.5
- Basilicata: Left+11

This is getting bad...

[Upsilon]

The problem is not whether Bersani/Monti OR Berlusconi is ahead in Senate. The problem is that Grillo is much too high in Senate, so nobody will get the majority there...

[minionofmidas]

Genova
Left 35.2 (-11.5), Troll 30.3, Clown 21.5 (-19.0), Right 9.9

Trieste
Left 31.4 (-7.2), Troll 27.1, Clown 25.9 (-19.6), Right 11.0

[Tender Branson]

Genova
Left 35.2 (-11.5), Troll 30.3, Clown 21.5 (-19.0), Right 9.9

Trieste
Left 31.4 (-7.2), Troll 27.1, Clown 25.9 (-19.6), Right 11.0

Left = Bersani
Troll = Grillo
Clown = Berlusconi
Right = Monti

[Keystone Phil]

Piedmont is going to be a real pain. 812 precincts haven't reported yet. 602 are in Turin. Berlusconi currently has a 13,000 vote lead in the region.

[rob in cal]

Doesn't the highest placed Camera coalition automatically get at least half the Camera seats? If this is the case, we'd be looking at about 70% of the electorate getting less than half the seats, and a 29-39% electorate getting half the seats. Very reflective of the electorate.

[Hash]

Forces of Darkness now over 30% in the Senate count, left at 32.2

[RogueBeaver]

Automatically get ~54%, or 340-ish Camera seats.

[YL]

Is this (posted on the Guardian's liveblog) likely to be reasonably accurate?

[rob in cal]

  For the Senate it looks like the city of Turin is almost all in, but not the surronding cities and towns.

[DL]

Lazio is definitely going left

[RogueBeaver]

M5S people are saying they'll make their own decisions based on web feedback, not what Grillo says. So there has to be a new election regardless of who wins the Chamber, since M5S won't be a coherent bloc voting confidence in either Bersani or PDL.

[Keystone Phil]

 For the Senate it looks like the city of Turin is almost all in, but not the surronding cities and towns.

You know, I didn't even think of that. The province includes more than just the city. That's huge for Silvio.

[Keystone Phil]

Is this (posted on the Guardian's liveblog) likely to be reasonably accurate?

Lazio and (for now) Piedmont should be flipped.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Piedmont is going to be a real pain. 812 precincts haven't reported yet. 602 are in Turin. Berlusconi currently has a 13,000 vote lead in the region.

I've calculated that if the Left's lead in the Turin province holds steady, they should gain over 20,000 votes. It's hard to see what will happen, though...

[minionofmidas]

Is this (posted on the Guardian's liveblog) likely to be reasonably accurate?

Lazio is currently a five point left lead. This will probably get closer, but tipping the right to win it is a daring move. Piemonte, Friuli and Abruzzo are all very much too close to call, though I'm starting to feel cocky about Friuli. I haven't the slightest clue why they're counting the two SVP Alone Senators (as opposed to four Senators elected on joint SVP-PD tickets) for the Monti camp. The rest is evidently correct.

[minionofmidas]

 For the Senate it looks like the city of Turin is almost all in, but not the surronding cities and towns.

You know, I didn't even think of that. The province includes more than just the city. That's huge for Silvio.

Sorry to disappoint you, but Torino's banlieue voted for Veltroni. I'm not going to check everything - huge sh!tload of municipalities in the mountainous part of the province - but Rivoli (37k voters, Veltroni by 8) and Alpignano (13k voters, Veltroni by 5) haven't reported anything at all yet.

[Tender Branson]

VOTE COUNT UPDATE:

Senate (73% in)

32.31% BERSANI
29.94% BERLUSCONI
23.89% GRILLO
  9.18% MONTI

LEAD: B+2.37 (trend: declining)

Chamber (38% in)

31.70% BERSANI
26.94% BERLUSCONI
25.57% GRILLO
10.47% MONTI

LEAD: B+4.76 (trend: declining)

Update:

Senate (79% in)

LEAD: B+1.85 (trend: declining)

Chamber (52% in)

LEAD: B+3.52 (trend: declining)

[Keystone Phil]

 For the Senate it looks like the city of Turin is almost all in, but not the surronding cities and towns.

You know, I didn't even think of that. The province includes more than just the city. That's huge for Silvio.

Sorry to disappoint you, but Torino's banlieue voted for Veltroni. I'm not going to check everything - huge sh!tload of municipalities in the mountainous part of the province - but Rivoli (37k voters, Veltroni by and Alpignano (13k voters, Veltroni by 5) haven't reported anything at all yet.

There are still 100 precincts (58,000 votes) in Cuneo that haven't reported and the center-right is up about 30,000 votes on the center-left (with M5S in second).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Regions with over 3/4 in:

- Piemonte: Right+0.5
- FVG: Left+0.75
- Liguria: Left+9
- ER: Left+20
- Toscana: Left+22
- Umbria: Left+12
- Marche: Left+11
- Molise: Right+0.5
- Basilicata: Left+11

This is getting bad...

More have crossed that threshold now.

- TAA: Left wins all seats, AFAIK
- Veneto: Right+8
- Abruzzo: Right+1
- Campania: Right+7
- Puglia: Right+6
- Calabria: Right+2
- Sicilia: Right+5
- Sardegna: Left+6

[Andrea]

Albert Laniece of Vallée d'Aoste is the first MP elected

[Keystone Phil]

I'm just now noticing the town breakdown option. I've been missing out.  

M5S just barely beat Bersani in my maternal grandmother's hometown in Sicily with Silvio down at 22%. The center-left won my paternal grandmother's hometown in Campania.  

[Tender Branson]

The latest RAI projection:

SENATO DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 31,1 - 105 seats
Centrodestra 30,5 - 113 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 24,4 - 63 seats
Scelta Civica 9,5 - 20 seats

CAMERA DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 29,2 - 340 seats
Centrodestra 28,7 - 121 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 26,1 - 111 seats
Scelta Civica 10,8 - 45 seats