Italy 2013 official results thread

[minionofmidas]

After tonight, anyone that says that Berlusconi has "lost his mojo" needs some help. 

Here's one thing we should all be able to agree on: the first exit polls in this country suck and Silvio always under polls.

He didn't. He's actually running slightly below where the polls put him. It's just that Bersani is underperforming oh-so-much-more.

[Niemeyerite]

M5S is oficially the most voted party

I'm devastated.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, an update on regions with some votes left to count.

- Lazio (95% rep): L+4
- Lombardia (95% rep): R+8
- Molise (98% rep): R+0.1
- Piemonte (98% rep): L+0.2
- Campania (98% rep): R+8
- Calabria (99% rep): R+2
- Sardegna (99% rep): L+6
- Puglia (99% rep): R+6
- Abruzzo (99% rep): R+2
- Sicilia (near-final): R+6
- Veneto (near-final): R+8
- TAA (near-final): L wins
- FVG: (near-final): L+0.5
- Toscana (final): L+22
- Marche (final): L+11
- Vd'A (final): Local guy wins
- Liguria (final): L+9
- ER (final): L+21
- Umbria (final): L+12
- Basilicata (final): L+11

[minionofmidas]

M5S is oficially the most voted party

I'm devastated.

I am exhilarated. Berlusconi may have lost his mojo, but the Italian people hasn't.

[Keystone Phil]

After tonight, anyone that says that Berlusconi has "lost his mojo" needs some help.  

Here's one thing we should all be able to agree on: the first exit polls in this country suck and Silvio always under polls.

He didn't. He's actually running slightly below where the polls put him. It's just that Bersani is underperforming oh-so-much-more.

Final polls had him at 28-29%. He has cracked (by the slightest of margins but still) 29%.

[JohnCA246]

I think it should be pointed out that only about 21% of Italians are voting for Berlusconi's party. God bless the US's two party system.....

[Beet]

After tonight, anyone that says that Berlusconi has "lost his mojo" needs some help. 

He got bailed out in 2011. Had he been forced to stay in power, he would have been finished for good.

Bailed out? Please. He was forced out with terrible ratings and was "finished" then, too. People need to start being a little more objective when it comes to this guy. Just admit that he has serious sway, like it or not, with the Italian people.

No, man. Read my posts from 2011. I predicted precisely this, and that is why I continued to support him at the time. And perversely, if I recall, you were supporting his ouster then.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I admit that that's factually the case, but I'm still absolutely intellectually and for that matter spiritually baffled as to why Berlusconi had any mojo in the first place. What is wrong with this country's political culture?! Giulio Andreotti and then this scumbag.

Berlusconi shaped Italy's political (an not only political) culture to his convenience.

[Franknburger]

After tonight, anyone that says that Berlusconi has "lost his mojo" needs some help. 

Here's one thing we should all be able to agree on: the first exit polls in this country suck and Silvio always under polls.

He didn't. He's actually running slightly below where the polls put him. It's just that Bersani is underperforming oh-so-much-more.

Final polls had him at 28-29%. He has cracked (by the slightest of margins but still) 29%.

Average of final polls for Berlusconi was 29.4.  He is now at 29.1.

[rob in cal]

  
Based on whats left, Berlusconi will get closer to victory, but my guess is just miss out on the win.
   After all is said and done I sure hope Italy gets rid of their awful electoral system. I hate to see 71% of the electorate winning 45% of the seats.  Stuff like that keeps me up at night.

[Keystone Phil]

After tonight, anyone that says that Berlusconi has "lost his mojo" needs some help. 

He got bailed out in 2011. Had he been forced to stay in power, he would have been finished for good.

Bailed out? Please. He was forced out with terrible ratings and was "finished" then, too. People need to start being a little more objective when it comes to this guy. Just admit that he has serious sway, like it or not, with the Italian people.

No, man. Read my posts from 2011. I predicted precisely this, and that is why I continued to support him at the time. And perversely, if I recall, you were supporting his ouster then.

...I was and that's great that you wanted him to stick around and predicted this but I don't see how that negates my point. He was still forced out and had horrible ratings. Whose to say that if he stuck around and his ratings got worse that he still wouldn't have found a way? Don't underestimate this guy. He has a lock on a segment of the population.

[minionofmidas]

Pavia Clown 38.9 (-15.8) Left 30.1 (-1.9) Troll 18.9 Right 7.9.
Bergamo Clown 43.0 (-17.1) Left 25.4 (-2.2) Troll 14.8 Right 11.9. Lombardy, of course.

Chieti Left 28.9 (-12.1) Clown 28.9 (-14.4) Troll 28.5 Right 7.9. Those final precincts made this closer - oh so much, the final margin was just nine votes! - that means the Left never closed the gap in Abruzzo and were in fact overtaken by Grillo. PdL 4, Five Star 2, PD 1

Agrigento Clown 31.9 (-13.8) Troll 30.8 Left 28.4 (-4.2) Right 5.7. Grillo was leading in the count at one point, which would given him complete control of the south coast of Sicily. Alas twas not to be. Only the three east coast provinces out.

[Beet]

If he had stuck around he would have been forced to either implement austerity or take Italy out of the EZ. Either way, he would have had to clean up his own mess. Being tasked with such a thing would have finished him for good (personally I think Italy would have had a transformation of the political system just like in 1994, but that's not beyond this discussion). We'll just have to disagree on this one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Left's lead down to 0.55 points... This is unbearable.

[Keystone Phil]

After tonight, anyone that says that Berlusconi has "lost his mojo" needs some help. 

Here's one thing we should all be able to agree on: the first exit polls in this country suck and Silvio always under polls.

He didn't. He's actually running slightly below where the polls put him. It's just that Bersani is underperforming oh-so-much-more.

Final polls had him at 28-29%. He has cracked (by the slightest of margins but still) 29%.

Average of final polls for Berlusconi was 29.4.  He is now at 29.1.

I don't see how that is possible. There were seven polls released on the final day and he only cracked 29% in one of them. You must be using a very loose definition to get that "final" average.

[RogueBeaver]

Antonio: Not enough votes left to flip the lead.

On another note, any bets Renzi tells Bersani "Told ya so" at the next PD convention?

[minionofmidas]

2000 precincts, 0.55%.

If he had stuck around he would have been forced to either implement austerity or take Italy out of the EZ. Either way, he would have had to clean up his own mess. Being tasked with such a thing would have finished him for good. We'll just have to disagree on this one.

Of course he has a lock on a segment of the population and a floor of say 20% (plus the Lega's floor of 3.5%). It took an election such as this one - and an opposition such as this one, and yes circumstances such as these - to win or come close to winning with not much more than his base support.

He retained more voters in the South than in the North, incidentally. This is highly relevant as it's a bit of a return to pre-1992 patterns.

[Franknburger]

After tonight, anyone that says that Berlusconi has "lost his mojo" needs some help. 

Here's one thing we should all be able to agree on: the first exit polls in this country suck and Silvio always under polls.

He didn't. He's actually running slightly below where the polls put him. It's just that Bersani is underperforming oh-so-much-more.

Final polls had him at 28-29%. He has cracked (by the slightest of margins but still) 29%.

Average of final polls for Berlusconi was 29.4.  He is now at 29.1.

I don't see how that is possible. There were seven polls released on the final day and he only cracked 29% in one of them. You must be using a very loose definition to get that "final" average.

I took this page (didn't recalculate their numbers, though).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio: Not enough votes left to flip the lead.

On another note, any bets Renzi tells Bersani "Told ya so" at the next PD convention?

Renzi should have been the nominee. Once this whole thing settles and we start playing the blame game, the PD primary voters shouldn't be forgotten for it.

[Keystone Phil]

97% in. 0.52% difference.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio: Not enough votes left to flip the lead.

Are you so sure of that? The gap seems to be narrowing really fast.

[minionofmidas]

Bari Clown 33.8 (-15.6) Left 28.4 (-7.1) Troll 25.1 Right 9.0

Camera lead 0.50.

[RogueBeaver]

Antonio: Not enough votes left to flip the lead.

On another note, any bets Renzi tells Bersani "Told ya so" at the next PD convention?

Renzi should have been the nominee. Once this whole thing settles and we start playing the blame game, the PD primary voters shouldn't be forgotten for it.

We all agreed at the time. You don't run a bureaucrat against two media-savvy, charismatic populists in a 2-month GE campaign. Particularly when one of them literally owns the airwaves.

[minionofmidas]

Antonio: Not enough votes left to flip the lead.

Are you so sure of that? The gap seems to be narrowing really fast.

Reasonably sure, and thus not sure enough for my own comfort.

[Franknburger]

Most outstanding votes appear to be from Torino, Milan, Monza, Varese, Roma, the Lazio countryside, Caserta, and Foggia.