Italy 2013 official results thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

No one's following the regionals count?

Lombardia has only 43% in, but it seems clear Maroni has this in the bag. He's leading in every province except Milano and Mantova.

Lazio has 1/4 of the vote in and Zingaretti leads by 11. Roma (big one, big Zingaretti lead) and Frosinone (small, slight Storace lead) are lagging behind in the count. The left's lead might still grow a bit.

Molise has 22% counted (uniform in both its provinces) and Frattura also has a 11 point lead, slightly bigger in Isernia than Campobasso. It's not 100% sure, but the left probably has it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yep, there probably needs to be another Senate election. At least Bersani might be going into that one as the incumbent, presuming this time he remembers to actually campaign. No need to roll the Camera dice.

But how will the public react to just Senate elections? I don't believe that's ever been done. Then Bersani is taunting the public: "Go ahead. Send me a center-right/M5S Senate. It will be a catastrophe. I dare you." Does he really want to take that chance with these voters?

I just think it's much more honest if he calls for all new elections for the entire country even if that isn't a "good" option either.

It has indeed never been done, I'm surprised to hear it is constitutionally possible.

However, they'd need to elect a new President first. Unless I'm very mistaken that will require a compromise with Grillo and/or Berlusconi... and I doubt that's going to be possible with the sceptre of reelecting JUST the Senate hanging over their heads. So, bottom line, I'll believe when I see it.

Why didn't Prodi attempt to dissolve only the Senate back in 2008? I know a left-wing victory was hard to envision, but he could have given it a try...

[minionofmidas]

Yep, there probably needs to be another Senate election. At least Bersani might be going into that one as the incumbent, presuming this time he remembers to actually campaign. No need to roll the Camera dice.

But how will the public react to just Senate elections? I don't believe that's ever been done. Then Bersani is taunting the public: "Go ahead. Send me a center-right/M5S Senate. It will be a catastrophe. I dare you." Does he really want to take that chance with these voters?

I just think it's much more honest if he calls for all new elections for the entire country even if that isn't a "good" option either.

It has indeed never been done, I'm surprised to hear it is constitutionally possible.

However, they'd need to elect a new President first. Unless I'm very mistaken that will require a compromise with Grillo and/or Berlusconi... and I doubt that's going to be possible with the sceptre of reelecting JUST the Senate hanging over their heads. So, bottom line, I'll believe when I see it.

Why didn't Prodi attempt to dissolve only the Senate back in 2008? I know a left-wing victory was hard to envision, but he could have given it a try...

I'm not sure the Italian political class was aware of the option until yesterday.

[Franknburger]

I tend to believe that the italian election was ultimately decided by the female vote, which "bunga-bungaed" heavily against Berlusconi, and was picked up by Grillo.

While I still have not come across any gender-specific political research on Italy (which, in itself, is quite telling), I discovered this Spiegel article (in German) titled "Females in Italian politics: Enraged against the grandpas" that portrays young women in Grillo's movement.

I also found an interesting comparison of socio-economic profiles of CD (italy) and PS (France) primary voters. In essence, the CD base comes out as being much more male, older and traditionalist than the PS base. While both parties in their primaries ultimately went for the "safe" (=traditionalist) candidate, age and ideological differences were much more pronounced in Italy (in France, obviously, the difference was more on gender). As such, it's also not surprising that the CD as another "old men's party" could not reach out to young and female protest voters.

If anybody has further analysis on the female vote, please share it here (I have done Latin in school, so I am able to read some Italian).

[YL]

Relatively, Berlusconi's best province with 'only' 8% loss against 2008 has ben Bolzano, which at the same time is Grillo's worst region. Obviously the province's linguistic divide has resulted in SVP (CD) vs. Center-Right vote polarisation.

Berlusconi really didn't have very far to fall in South Tyrol; even in 2008 he only got 16% there.  So an 8% loss is quite bad, really.

I've been looking at some of the Ladin areas.  In South Tyrol, it seems that they basically vote like the German speakers (e.g. Urtijëi: SVP 48% other centre left 14% Freiheitlichen 14% Monti 8% Berlusconi 8% Grillo 7%).  In Trentino, on the other hand, Berlusconi and Monti dominate (e.g. Vigo di Fassa: Monti 37% Berlusconi 28% Grillo 17% centre left including SVP 12%).

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I thought they were connected to the Austrian right (FPÖ and BZÖ) which suggests that they're not really what I'd think of as "centre right".  They're also separatist.

[Keystone Phil]

No one is following the regionals because we all know the (sad) results already, Antonio.

Speaking of Lazio, the center-right only lost by three points in the Senate and two points in the Camera. If the regional PdL wasn't in shambles...

[Franknburger]

** Bolzano: 6.5% gain for "Die Freiheitlichen" (German-speaking center-right)

I thought they were connected to the Austrian right (FPÖ and BZÖ) which suggests that they're not really what I'd think of as "centre right".  They're also separatist.

In the German political continuum, I would also not address Berlusconi's coaltion as "centre-right". But this is Italy, so I adjusted my scale of reference accordingly ..

[minionofmidas]

Relatively, Berlusconi's best province with 'only' 8% loss against 2008 has ben Bolzano, which at the same time is Grillo's worst region. Obviously the province's linguistic divide has resulted in SVP (CD) vs. Center-Right vote polarisation.

Berlusconi really didn't have very far to fall in South Tyrol; even in 2008 he only got 16% there.  So an 8% loss is quite bad, really.

I've been looking at some of the Ladin areas.  In South Tyrol, it seems that they basically vote like the German speakers (e.g. Urtijëi: SVP 48% other centre left 14% Freiheitlichen 14% Monti 8% Berlusconi 8% Grillo 7%).  In Trentino, on the other hand, Berlusconi and Monti dominate (e.g. Vigo di Fassa: Monti 37% Berlusconi 28% Grillo 17% centre left including SVP 12%).

That's what I would have guessed without checking.

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I thought they were connected to the Austrian right (FPÖ and BZÖ) which suggests that they're not really what I'd think of as "centre right".  They're also separatist.
[/quote]Quite correct.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No one is following the regionals because we all know the (sad) results already, Antonio.

Speaking of Lazio, the center-right only lost by three points in the Senate and two points in the Camera. If the regional PdL wasn't in shambles...

Is it depressing that, after all the scandal that have struck the local PdL and Lega, to the point where they had to call early elections (!), 44% of Lombardia voters still support them...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, France Camera results:

CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA                         25,919   34.37%
PARTITO DEMOCRATICO                          22,288   29.56%   
IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTA'                      9,987    13.24%   
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE BEPPEGRILLO.IT   6,721     8.91%
SINISTRA ECOLOGIA LIBERTA'                  3,381    4.48%
RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE                               2,333     3.09%
PARTITO COMUNISTA                               1,908     2.53%
MOV.ASSOCIATIVO ITALIANI ALL'ESTERO 1,882     2.49%
FARE PER FERMARE IL DECLINO               980        1.29%

That "1" in "3,381" is me, obviously.

[justfollowingtheelections]

To those who are really disappointed with Grillo's success, I must remind you that disenchanted voters always vote for an outsider.  If it wasn't for Grillo, those voters would have probably voted for a Golden Dawn type party.  You should actually be happy there was a candidate that prevented that from happeninf.

Also, it sounds like Bersani will try to convince Grillo to work with him:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/26/italy-bersani-coalition-beppe-grillo

[Antonio the Sixth]

To those who are really disappointed with Grillo's success, I must remind you that disenchanted voters always vote for an outsider.  If it wasn't for Grillo, those voters would have probably voted for a Golden Dawn type party.  You should actually be happy there was a candidate that prevented that from happeninf.

Also, it sounds like Bersani will try to convince Grillo to work with him:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/26/italy-bersani-coalition-beppe-grillo

He will never convince Grillo himself, but he might convince a significant chunk of M5S Senators to support him in some circumstances. It seems that the Grillist backbenchers are generally much more pragmatic than their figurehead.

[Keystone Phil]

Di Pietro is leaving as President of IdV.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

To those who are really disappointed with Grillo's success, I must remind you that disenchanted voters always vote for an outsider.  If it wasn't for Grillo, those voters would have probably voted for a Golden Dawn type party.  You should actually be happy there was a candidate that prevented that from happeninf.

Also, it sounds like Bersani will try to convince Grillo to work with him:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/26/italy-bersani-coalition-beppe-grillo

He will never convince Grillo himself, but he might convince a significant chunk of M5S Senators to support him in some circumstances. It seems that the Grillist backbenchers are generally much more pragmatic than their figurehead.

Is Grillo even going to be in the Camera? I heard he wasn't actually a candidate himself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To those who are really disappointed with Grillo's success, I must remind you that disenchanted voters always vote for an outsider.  If it wasn't for Grillo, those voters would have probably voted for a Golden Dawn type party.  You should actually be happy there was a candidate that prevented that from happeninf.

Also, it sounds like Bersani will try to convince Grillo to work with him:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/26/italy-bersani-coalition-beppe-grillo

He will never convince Grillo himself, but he might convince a significant chunk of M5S Senators to support him in some circumstances. It seems that the Grillist backbenchers are generally much more pragmatic than their figurehead.

Is Grillo even going to be in the Camera? I heard he wasn't actually a candidate himself.

He wasn't. But he still is the M5S (that doesn't mean that all grillists will blindly follow him, but those who don't will likely be expelled - major M5S figures were already expelled some months ago, sparking polemics about Grillo's authoritarian attitude).

[Lief 🗽]

Too bad there won't be a Grand Coalition, that might have given M5S a shot at winning the inevitable election a year later.

[ag]

Too bad there won't be a Grand Coalition, that might have given M5S a shot at winning the inevitable election a year later.

Well, you have to be Grillo to believe that professional politicians are fools.

[Lasitten]

Camera votes from Finland are hilarious:

MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE       232   27,39   
PARTITO DEMOCRATICO      228   26,91   
CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA      158   18,65   
SINISTRA ECOLOGIA LIBERTA'   77   9,09   
RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE      59   6,96   
IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTA'   51   6,02   

What's that "Partito Comunista" which seems to be interestingly high in European countries like Finland and Sweden? In votes from senate Berlusconi is behind Rivoluzione Civile

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's that "Partito Comunista" which seems to be interestingly high in European countries like Finland and Sweden?

Must be some random outfit. I was surprised too when I saw it on my ballot.

[Vosem]

I think the likeliest option here is that without Grillo's blessing some M5S Senators back a leftist coalition anyway and, Bersani manages to form some kind of monster with Monti and a minority of M5S Senators which lasts until 2014-16 and then collapses. Which would then usher in another, final Berlusconi term.

[Kitteh]

I think the likeliest option here is that without Grillo's blessing some M5S Senators back a leftist coalition anyway and, Bersani manages to form some kind of monster with Monti and a minority of M5S Senators which lasts until 2014-16 and then collapses. Which would then usher in another, final Berlusconi term.

In 2016? When Berlusconi is 79?

[MaxQue]

I think the likeliest option here is that without Grillo's blessing some M5S Senators back a leftist coalition anyway and, Bersani manages to form some kind of monster with Monti and a minority of M5S Senators which lasts until 2014-16 and then collapses. Which would then usher in another, final Berlusconi term.

In 2016? When Berlusconi is 79?

It wouldn't surprise me. I personally think he will lead PdL until he is too sick or dies.

[ZuWo]

Svizzera (Camera):

PD 50,139 34,19%
Monti 38,274 26,10%
PDL 25,379 17,30%
Grillo 20,101 13,70%
...

Total number of votes cast: 162,250 (out of 442,557 eligible voters)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Fun fact: Bersani, Berlusconi, and Monti's best provinces are all adjacent: Bolzano, Sondrio, and Trento, respectively.

[Keystone Phil]

We're talking about a new Parliament with M5S as a major player. Do people really expect whatever government that emerges to last more than a year?

Fun fact: Bersani, Berlusconi, and Monti's best provinces are all adjacent: Bolzano, Sondrio, and Trento, respectively.

Another fun fact: this is the first election Silvio has lost as the challenger.