Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 22, 2014, 06:25:30 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Who will control the house in 2015?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Will the democrats will back the house or will the GOP retain the house?
Democrats take back house   -2 (5%)
GOP retains control   -38 (95%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 40

Author Topic: Who will control the house in 2015?  (Read 1312 times)
Clinton 2016
diskymike44
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 805


View Profile
« on: February 26, 2013, 07:35:16 pm »
Ignore

I think the GOP will lose the house. so, if you love seeing old Johnny boy as speaker you better enjoy it.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18249
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2013, 07:44:06 pm »
Ignore

Republicans will likely gain on their majority in 2014, keeping the House. However, I think Boehner will step down as Speaker.
Logged


"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
-Jackie Robinson
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13870
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2013, 07:46:54 pm »
Ignore

Pubs keep the majority, however Boehner steps down as Speaker either this cycle or next. Been reports that he doesn't want to be there forever.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Talleyrand
TexasDemocrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2712
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2013, 08:08:20 pm »
Ignore

I would wager Republicans gain upwards of ten seats, judging major changes in the political landscape over the next two years. If Democrats couldn't take the House in 2012, despite a fairly decent year with a popular vote victory occurring, I simply don't see a realistic scenario at this point that has them gaining seventeen additional seats to attain that majority, let alone any at all (although that would be much likelier).

I doubt Boehner will step down unless it's clear he would struggle in a leadership vote or dissatisfaction with him reaches a level too distracting for him to hold on. That probably means he'll be gone in 2014 or 2016.
Logged
d32123
Full Member
***
Posts: 186
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2013, 08:36:43 pm »
Ignore

If the Republicans lose seats then Boehner will probably step down. 

And there's no way the Democrats will take back the House barring something seriously dramatic happening (Republicans go "full retard" (pardon my language) and do something massively unpopular with the American people, some sort of disaster or terrorist attack, or some massive scandal happens). 
Logged

True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27753
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2013, 09:04:07 pm »
Ignore

While the Dems might be able to score some seats in 2014, it is highly unlikely it would be enough to take control.
Logged

I wonder why Van Heusen never bothered to make women's clothing?
Wolfentoad
wolfentoad66
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2165
Lebanon


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2013, 09:54:17 pm »
Ignore

While the Dems might be able to score some seats in 2014, it is highly unlikely it would be enough to take control.

^^^ I'm seriously not convinced the Democrats have any chance at regaining the House, and, at most, would only gain 5-8 seats. The GOP will most likely gain a few seats, as others have said.
Logged

I will stay home in this next election if we do not have a conservative tea party patriot. I have had enough RINOS
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14094
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2013, 12:23:07 am »
Ignore

A Democratic majority just isn't in the cards.
Logged


Indy Texas
independentTX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4357
Virgin Islands, U.S.


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2013, 02:42:54 am »
Ignore

I think we're at the beginning of an era that is kind of a mirror image of the late 20th century: the Democrats will win presidential elections most of the time, Republicans will almost always have control of the House, and the Senate will move back and forth with short term shifts in party strength.
Logged

2014 Endorsements
TX-Gov: Davis | TX-Lt. Gov: Van de Putte | TX-AG: Houston | TX-Comptroller: Collier | TX-Land Comm: Cook | TX-Ag Comm: None | TX-RRC: Sitton
angryGreatness
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2067
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -4.70

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2013, 03:47:44 am »
Ignore

It's a toss-up at this point who will gain or loose seats in 2014, but whatever the outcome it's unlikely the Dems will get 17 seats in a midterm election unless something HUGE happens.

I think the main goal of the Dems for 2014 should be to protect the seats they have, while making a few attempts at the very vulnerable seats (Gary Miller, Mike Coffman, Rodney Davis, Santa Claus, ect.).

This would make it more feasible for the house to be retaken in 2016.
Logged

OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9645
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2013, 06:28:19 am »
Ignore

Pa, mich, and wisc need democratic governors so we can expand our maj in senate and take house in 16 with gotv efforts.
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2013, 06:07:27 pm »
Ignore

I would wager Republicans gain upwards of ten seats, judging major changes in the political landscape over the next two years. If Democrats couldn't take the House in 2012, despite a fairly decent year with a popular vote victory occurring, I simply don't see a realistic scenario at this point that has them gaining seventeen additional seats to attain that majority, let alone any at all (although that would be much likelier).

I doubt Boehner will step down unless it's clear he would struggle in a leadership vote or dissatisfaction with him reaches a level too distracting for him to hold on. That probably means he'll be gone in 2014 or 2016.

A Republican gain of more than ten seats would require a minor GOP wave, which isnt happening as long as Republicans control the House.  It will be a five seat change either way. 
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2013, 06:12:44 pm »
Ignore

I think we're at the beginning of an era that is kind of a mirror image of the late 20th century: the Democrats will win presidential elections most of the time, Republicans will almost always have control of the House, and the Senate will move back and forth with short term shifts in party strength.

The Democratic control of the House from 1968 to 1994 was a function of Democrats still retaining most Southern seats even as that region became solidly Republican at the Presidential(and even sometimes statewide) level. 

If Democrats get fair maps in more states in the 2021 redistricting, the artificial GOP House majority will come crashing down faster than you can blink. 
Logged
Clinton1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3405
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2013, 08:33:49 pm »
Ignore

I say we all but forget the House. Focus on keeping/building our majorities in the Senate and picking up Governors' Mansions from the 2010 Freshmen.
Focus on the House in 2016 when the unpopular Senators elected in the wave year of 2010 will be up for re-election.
Logged

smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 889
Russian Federation
P
View Profile
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2013, 12:14:23 am »
Ignore

Republicans. No detail exlanation is needed here - it's obvious. The only possible (but very unlikely) exception  - new strong wave the size of 2006-2008
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48
Sawx
SawxDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4586
Zimbabwe


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2013, 01:26:45 am »
Ignore

Republicans. Unless there's some freak event that drives Democrats to the polls or drives Republicans away and it turns into a repeat of 2006, there will not be a House majority.

Dems should focus on defending their Senate majority and their House seats (AZ-1, AZ-2, FL-18, NH-1 to name their most vulnerable seats). Their best chances at a gain are from CA-31 and CO-6.
Logged

Iron King SJoyce
sjoycefla
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8786
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2013, 07:41:12 am »
Ignore

GOP stays, Boehner goes.
Logged

pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9836
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2013, 09:11:15 am »
Ignore

Extremists can lose moderate districts. Many House seats have a Republican edge (Cook PVI R+2) but a Representative with a voting record suitable for an R+30 district. 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines