2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Frank McKenna, former Liberal Premier of New Brunswick, has announced he won't seek a federal seat in the upcoming federal election.  That's bad news for Martin's Liberals, as they're scrambling to catch star candidates.  Their task has been pretty difficult since the outbreak of the Sponsorship Scandal.

Any news on Romanow? Both the Liberals and the NDP were trying to get him to run last I heard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stephen Harper has finally won the CPC leadership contest in the first ballot.

Here's the results aired on CPAC.

Stephen Harper: 15,614.7 points
Belinda Stronach: 9,922.2 points
Tony Clement: 2,663.1 points

Finally some good news for Martin...

[minionofmidas]

www.electionprediction.com has finally started doing the Federal election.

They seem to have bandwidth problems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That happend to them in the Ontario election as well...

Most likely seat to change hands: Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Sk=NDP gain from Con

[Siege40]

Spring election now. Harper's going to have a power base in the party by the Fall. Martin has to strike quickly. Time is on the side of the opposition, the Liberals will move quickly. If Clement won they'd of moved a little slower, I think he already could of had the party behind him. If Stronach won she'd take a hell of a long time to unite the CCP. But Harper will take some time, not a lot, possibly by Autumn. A quick election will hurt Harper cause then he has to draft the platform cause there won't be time for a party convention, the Red Tories will see this as the Alliance agenda being shoved down their throats. They'll vote Liberal.

Siege40

[Canadian observer]

Any news on Romanow? Both the Liberals and the NDP were trying to get him to run last I heard.

I got no news on Romanow.  However if he decides to run with the NDP, that would be an upset for the Liberals in Saskatchewan.

I may not be right but it seems Liberals may not get a great pool of star candidates this year.

[Canadian observer]

Stephen Harper has finally won the CPC leadership contest in the first ballot.

Here's the results aired on CPAC.

Stephen Harper: 15,614.7 points
Belinda Stronach: 9,922.2 points
Tony Clement: 2,663.1 points

Finally some good news for Martin...

What good news for Martin? Taking all the 8 Conservative remaining seats in the Atlantic while losing around 40 in the rest of the country? (i.e., minimum of 10 seats to the BQ in Quebec, 20 to the CPC in Ontario, and 10 to the CPC in the West)

[Siege40]

Do you think that Harper can be a national canidate. Everytime I hear from this guy it, "I'm the one that will break into Ontario..." Sure! What about the other third of our nation? Harper is a confusing man, he'll do extremely well, or moderately ok. Vote NDP, I've heard their numbers jumped in Quebec. Quebec!!! NDP can do it!

Siege40

[© tweed]

Harper will do pretty badly.  Stronach would have been the better candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What good news for Martin? Taking all the 8 Conservative remaining seats in the Atlantic while losing around 40 in the rest of the country? (i.e., minimum of 10 seats to the BQ in Quebec, 20 to the CPC in Ontario, and 10 to the CPC in the West)

Well... not as bad news for Martin. Harper won't win a majority government...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Vote NDP, I've heard their numbers jumped in Quebec. Quebec!!! NDP can do it!

They have gone from 1% to around 10%. Which in Quebec means no seats unless you get REALLY lucky...

[minionofmidas]

Stephen Harper has finally won the CPC leadership contest in the first ballot.

Here's the results aired on CPAC.

Stephen Harper: 15,614.7 points
Belinda Stronach: 9,922.2 points
Tony Clement: 2,663.1 points

Finally some good news for Martin...

What good news for Martin? Taking all the 8 Conservative remaining seats in the Atlantic while losing around 40 in the rest of the country? (i.e., minimum of 10 seats to the BQ in Quebec, 20 to the CPC in Ontario, and 10 to the CPC in the West)

How are the Liberals going to lose ten seats in Western Canada? They've pretty much lost everything there was to lose in the West already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I got no news on Romanow.  However if he decides to run with the NDP, that would be an upset for the Liberals in Saskatchewan.

I may not be right but it seems Liberals may not get a great pool of star candidates this year.

Romanow is a friend of Chretien... so I guess he won't run for the LPC...

[minionofmidas]

Another Ipsos-Reid poll has been published, the Liberals' recovery seems to be taking a long time.  This poll has the largest sample size among the '04 Ipsos polls to date (n=2111 individuals, MoE 2.1%)

From Ipsos-Reid

Federal voting intention in Canada
LPC 38%
CPC 26%
NDP 17%
BQ 12%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 49%
CPC 31%
NDP 17%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 49%
LPC 31%
NDP 8%
CPC 6%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 31%
NDP 16%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

LPC 36%
NDP 31%
CPC 24%

Alberta

CPC 57%
LPC 24%
NDP 16%

British Columbia

LPC 33%
NDP 29%
CPC 27%
Green Party 10%

That translates into gains and losses as follows:
Atlantic Lib +9, Con -10, NDP flat
Quebec Bloc +9, Lib -13, NDP +6, Con -6
Ontario Lib -4, Con -7, NDP +8
Man/Sask Lib +9, NDP +8, Con -25
Alta Con -15, Lib +3, NDP +10
B.C. Lib +5, NDP +18, Con -30
On these figures, the Liberals would almost certainly keep their absolute majority of seats.

[minionofmidas]

On the simplistic assumption that the swing will be uniform across these regions, expect the following results:
Liberals 158
Conservatives 72
BQ 57
NDP 20
ind 1

Atlantic: Lib 23 - Con 8 - NDP 1 (bad news for the NDP...)
Quebec: BQ 57 - Lib 18 (routed outside Montreal and the Outaouais)
Ontario: Lib 84 - Con 20 - NDP 1 - i 1 (yes, I know that independent "win" should be pretty much disregarded; and I know the "equal swing" presumption is pretty absurd here, and the NDP actually has a very good chance of picking a few Toronto seats)
Man/Sask: NDP 10 - Lib 9 - Con 9 (for once, it's the NDP who's voters would be better distributed)
Alberta: Con 24 - Lib 4 (all of them in Edmonton)
BC: Lib 18 - Con 11 - NDP 7 (the Conservatives to hang on in most of the Interior, but pretty much routed in the Vancouver Area, and Vancouver Island splitting 3-3 between Liberals and NDP)
I assumed that the NDP would probably take Yukon and the other two territories seats are safe Liberal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Atlantic: Lib 23 - Con 8 - NDP 1 (bad news for the NDP...)

Won't happen. The NDP will win at least 3 for sure in NS, and Godin seems safe in NB.

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I don't see the BQ winning that many seats...

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I don't see the Liberals gaining in Saskatchwan... and re-distribution has caused some serious problems for them in Winnepeg.

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The Liberals win 4 seats in Alberta?! They will be lucky to hang on to the 2 they have now...

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The Greenies won't win 10%... I'd assume most of that will go over to the NDP. Uniform swing is a VERY bad idea in BC (the political climate has changed completely...)

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Dunno about that...

[minionofmidas]

Atlantic: Lib 23 - Con 8 - NDP 1 (bad news for the NDP...)

Won't happen. The NDP will win at least 3 for sure in NS, and Godin seems safe in NB.

That's actually more like the maximum for the NDP over there, but I agree it's quite possible.

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I don't see the BQ winning that many seats...
[/quote]They've done it before...

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I don't see the Liberals gaining in Saskatchwan... and re-distribution has caused some serious problems for them in Winnepeg.[/quote]This breaks up provincewise as: Manitoba Lib 7, NDP 4, Con 3; Saskatchewan NDP 6, Con 6, Lib 2. So I don't see them gaining in Saskatchewan either...

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The Liberals win 4 seats in Alberta?! They will be lucky to hang on to the 2 they have now... [/quote]I'll have to disagree here. This is one province where the technical result is exactly what I'd have predicted anyways.

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The Greenies won't win 10%... I'd assume most of that will go over to the NDP. Uniform swing is a VERY bad idea in BC (the political climate has changed completely...)[/quote]It's only a rough guideline, obviously...Yeah, I guess the NDP will probably take a few more than seven seats here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's actually more like the maximum for the NDP over there, but I agree it's quite possible.

NDP won't lose Halifax or Sackville-Eastern Shore, and would be unlucky to lose Dartmouth-Cole Harbour. They also have a good shot at picking up Sydney-Victoria and the possibility of upsets elsewhere in the province.

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It's possible but unlikely.

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The Liberals are in trouble in Churchill River (though Goodale is safe in Wascana)... and the Liberals had a bad re-distribution (re-districting) in Winnepeg.

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Which ones?

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BC looks very interesting this year

[minionofmidas]

Beaumont, Centre, East and Strathcona.
But as the NDP is not polling higher in the Maritimes than at the last elections, while the Liberals are, I don't see much scope for upset NDP victories here. Toronto is more interesting in that respect.
On Quebec: I don't think the BQ will win by the kind of margin they have in the polls right now, but if they do, they will knock off all those seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Beaumont, Centre, East and Strathcona.
But as the NDP is not polling higher in the Maritimes than at the last elections, while the Liberals are, I don't see much scope for upset NDP victories here. Toronto is more interesting in that respect.
On Quebec: I don't think the BQ will win by the kind of margin they have in the polls right now, but if they do, they will knock off all those seats.

The NDP usually gain a few % in Nova Scotia in the last few days of campaigning... (ie: 2003 Provincial election), but they probably won't pick up any seats in NS, other than possibly Sydney-Victoria (which has really strange voting patterns).

I don't see the Liberals winning in Edmonton-Strathcona (as weird as this may seem, the NDP actually have a good chance there...), Edmonton-Beaumont looks safe enough, Edmonton-Centre will be very close (again...) and Edmonton-East is a possible upset.

BTW www.electionprediction.com is working again

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I know, I used that just right now for all these swings.
Having been to Edmonton, I actually can't understand how the Alliance could ever win in Strathcona. It's sure got an extremely liberal (American sense) feel. The Southeast of the city, meanwhile, (ie, Beaumont riding) is strongly South Asian. The Southwest though, where I was staying, is terrible. Very affluent suburban nightmare.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I know, I used that just right now for all these swings.
Having been to Edmonton, I actually can't understand how the Alliance could ever win in Strathcona. It's sure got an extremely liberal (American sense) feel. The Southeast of the city, meanwhile, (ie, Beaumont riding) is strongly South Asian. The Southwest though, where I was staying, is terrible. Very affluent suburban nightmare.

The CA won in Strathcona because of vote-splitting. They would win around 40%, the Liberals 30% and the NDP 15%

At least the suburban nightmare only covers part of Edmonton... ALL of Calgary is like that...

[Canadian observer]

BC: Lib 18 - Con 11 - NDP 7

A week ago, during another divisive Liberal nomination contest in Richmond, BC; where 50-year old ladies were hammering each other with their purse.  A Liberal organizer told to a CBC journalist that the party might be lucky to hold 2 seats in the province.

At present Liberals' fortunes don't look good in the West.  The unpopularity of the BC provincial Liberals may influence the support given to the LPC in that province.  In Alberta, the Conservatives are at 60%, while the Libs are under 30%, base on a recent Environic polls of 1,000 Albertans.  In an area of less than 30 ridings using a first-pass-the-post electoral system, a party that gets less than 30% usually gets no seats.  In Winnipeg and the Prairies, the NDP seems to get back its natural support at the Liberals' expense.  In Winnipeg, the popular former Liberal minister Lloyd Axworthy hadn't left any successor.  I think the NDP may get more seats than the Liberals among the ridings won by a party other than the Conservative party.

[Kevinstat]

Remember, everyone, that the existing constituencies will be used for the coming federal election if Martin drops the writ before August 25.  So if the Martin feels his party will have a better chance under the existing district lines, which is fairly likely since new districts would likely decrease the impact of incumbency (although I know it may not mean much in Canada where people are effectively voting for the parties and their leaders) and allow the scandal to have more impact, then he can call an election at an earlier date.  If he feels, contrary to what some here say, that the passage of time will help his party but the new district lines will not, look for him to call the election very shortly before August 25.  Such a move would likely irritate many people, though, since it would be seen as self-serving and would delay a more equitable distribution of seats.  People in provinces (Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia) and parts of provinces that would gain more representation under the new district lines would likely be especially unhappy, while some people who would not gain representation or would even lose some might be grateful to the Liberals (the party might have an easier time holding the Cardigan rindings in P.E.I. and some Quebec ridings, for example).

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In BC, Campbell is dropping like a stone (yay!) and is dragging anyone with the word "liberal" next to their name on the ballot paper with him.
The LPC should hang on to a couple of Vancouver seats... and maybe win a few in the Lower Mainland IF they are lucky...
Meanwhile support for the CA/CPC has almost halved in BC since 2000...