2004 Democratic Primary

[Siege40]

Wow, the NDP are seriously on the move.... Yay!

Siege40

[Canadian observer]

Wow, the NDP are seriously on the move.... Yay!

Siege40

I must admit I'm not an NDP supporter.  For most Quebecers, that's a strange party.  That said I acknowledged he's in a good position to replace its party back into the places where it was strong during the Lewis-Broadbent era.

If he wants to maximize his seats standing, and really make Martin sweat, I'd advise him to campaign mainly in Ontario and especially in the city of Toronto.  Layton has the advantage to be in a leadership position and he's friendly with the Mayor.  By stealing Liberal votes in TO, he wouldn't necessarily risk the election of any conservative candidate as most CA and PC candidates were generally 3rd of 4th in the last 2000 election.

I don't know if Broadbent is still going to be candidate in Ottawa-Centre.  If he's, and wins the riding, I think he may be the first NDP candidate to make a breakthrough in the capital region.

[Siege40]

Wow, the NDP are seriously on the move.... Yay!

Siege40

I must admit I'm not an NDP supporter.  For most Quebecers, that's a strange party.  That said I acknowledged he's in a good position to replace its party back into the places where it was strong during the Lewis-Broadbent era.

If he wants to maximize his seats standing, and really make Martin sweat, I'd advise him to campaign mainly in Ontario and especially in the city of Toronto.  Layton has the advantage to be in a leadership position and he's friendly with the Mayor.  By stealing Liberal votes in TO, he wouldn't necessarily risk the election of any conservative candidate as most CA and PC candidates were generally 3rd of 4th in the last 2000 election.

I don't know if Broadbent is still going to be candidate in Ottawa-Centre.  If he's, and wins the riding, I think he may be the first NDP candidate to make a breakthrough in the capital region.

Well if the former Leader of the NDP can't break into the area, there's only one more person to try, and that's the leader. Ottawa may just be one of those places that the NDP can't win. Looking at things.... where are the Liberals gonna hold out?

Quebec is being carved up, Maritimes are showing support for the NDP and the Cons., the West is being split by the NDP and the Tories, and all three parties are focusing in on Ontario. Do you think this could end up as an NDP/Liberal government? If it did I think Canadian politics would shift, the NDP would no longer be, "the unelectable" party. If there was a successful Liberal/NDP Parliament the NDP could win the next next election (2008?). But it may hurt the NDP, the question may be raised, what is the difference between the two, a joint-parliament could blur the lines.

Siege40

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something strange has happend to the NDP recently...

When Alexa McDonough was elected leader, the results of the first ballot looked like this:

1. Svend Robinson (unelectable hard lind leftist)
2. Alexa McDonough (wishy-washy, moderate)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

Robinson withdrew before the second ballot

But when Layton was elected leader the top 3 were:

1. Jack Layton (electable, pragmatist)
2. Bill Blaikie (electable, Social Gospelite)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

[Siege40]

Something strange has happend to the NDP recently...

When Alexa McDonough was elected leader, the results of the first ballot looked like this:

1. Svend Robinson (unelectable hard lind leftist)
2. Alexa McDonough (wishy-washy, moderate)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

Robinson withdrew before the second ballot

But when Layton was elected leader the top 3 were:

1. Jack Layton (electable, pragmatist)
2. Bill Blaikie (electable, Social Gospelite)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

I fail to see the the trend? The NDP are going for the electable people... I wonder why they'd do that?

Siege40

[Kevinstat]

Maybe Al was saying that the NDP preferring electable but principled leaders is strange for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My point is that traditionally a hard leftist gets into the top 3 at every NDP leadership convention.
However, when Layton was elected this didn't happen.

[© tweed]

Why does the NDP want an electable candidate?  They won't win that much anyway, outside of a couple dozen seats.

[Siege40]

They want to become more than the third party, which despite this being a multi-party system it still fits. The NDP always have their view on 24 Sussex Drive, but they aim lower and take what they can get. They make excellent opposition never the less.

Siege40

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They won't win that much anyway, outside of a couple dozen seats.

I dunno about that... in 1988 they won over 40 seats and if things go there way this year...

[Siege40]

Can someone find the type of support that the NDP had before the 1988 election? I mean like weeks before, not in previous elections. I'd like to see if it is higher or lower then back than now, I have a feeling it was lower back then. The NDP could win something like 40-50 seats if that holds true.

Siege40

[© tweed]

Does the NDP usually vote with the LPC in the parliament?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does the NDP usually vote with the LPC in the parliament?

The NDP vote with the NDP

[Siege40]

Does the NDP usually vote with the LPC in the parliament?

The NDP vote with the NDP

Well put, it's kind of funny, in Canada the Liberals and Conservatives shoot down eachothers legislation. The NDP actually look to their believes and a lot of the time vote against because they bill is against their policy ideas or it does not go far enough. The same thing plays out in Ontario Parliament. Liberals will say, "Why did you vote against our increased healthcare spending?" NDP, "Cause it wasn't even close to enough." Stuff like that.

Siege40

[© tweed]

Does the NDP usually vote with the LPC in the parliament?

The NDP vote with the NDP

That answers my question.  

[© tweed]

New Poll:

National

LPC 38%
CPC 27%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 5%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 28%
NDP 17%

Quebec

BQ 44%
LPC 33%
CPC 8%
NDP 6%

Atlantic

LPC 47%
CPC 31%
NDP 14%

Sask/Manitoba

LPC 31%
NDP 30%
CPC 28%

British Columbia

CPC 38%
LPC 28%
NDP 18%

Alberta

CPC 54% (Rednecks)
LPC 28%
NDP 11%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Poll:

National

LPC 38%
CPC 27%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 5%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 28%
NDP 17%

Quebec

BQ 44%
LPC 33%
CPC 8%
NDP 6%

Atlantic

LPC 47%
CPC 31%
NDP 14%

Sask/Manitoba

LPC 31%
NDP 30%
CPC 28%

British Columbia

CPC 38%
LPC 28%
NDP 18%

Alberta

CPC 54% (Rednecks)
LPC 28%
NDP 11%

Who by?

[© tweed]

Ipsos-Reid

[minionofmidas]

I don't like the BC result. I don't like it at all.
Otherwise it's pretty much unchanged from the last poll.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't like the BC result. I don't like it at all.
Otherwise it's pretty much unchanged from the last poll.

The BC numbers have been jumping around a lot recently... mostly statistical noise I'd guess (if I remember correctly the MoE for a provincial breakdown is about 7%=not very accurate) I think a proper poll done their would be very helpfull...

BTW polls always underestimate the strength of the BC NDP.

[Siege40]

Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

[Canadian observer]

Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

... Another scandal may shake it again ...

[Siege40]

Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

... Another scandal may shake it again ...

I meant something like the election call, or some sort of powerful issue. The Liberals need a strong issue.

Siege40

[Canadian observer]

Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

... Another scandal may shake it again ...

I meant something like the election call, or some sort of powerful issue. The Liberals need a strong issue.

Siege40

When I was 13, a federal party leader said: "Elections are not time to discuss serious issues". That quotes came from the famous PC Party leader Kim Campbell. I still remember the guffow that came from the press at the end of the '93 federal campaign. How the Martin Liberals can expect to catch a strong issue when the only one Paul Martin has found is the need to "get a mandate" for his own sake and strike "a balance" between the latter and the need of the people to be informed on governmental management issues? Such message doesn't sound sexy in campaign. His message is blurred and Martin doesn't seem to have a back-up plan supporting his current, which is in tatters. Maybe one way for him to get an issue is to do something he's been very reluctant to: Governing...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

Yeah but you don't get loads of Conservatives everywhere in BC... sure Prince George and "The Valley"* are scary, scary places... but Vancouver and it's inner suburbs are left wing, as is Vancouver Island (my cousin has moved back to Nanaimo, BTW) and most of the interior (ie: Kamloops) is more populist than anything else.

*The Fraser Valley, of course