2004 Democratic Primary

[Canadian observer]

Martin was a fool for not calling an election immediately after getting the Liberal Leadership, agreed?

Siege40

Had he done so, the new ridings would not have been used... which would have really pissed off people out West...
And what if the the sponsership scandel had broken half walf through the campaign?

The scandal stems from the presentation of the Auditor General's Report before Parliament.  Such report can only be presented while the Parliament is in session.  Hence, it might not have occured, or happened the way it did during the campaign.

[Siege40]

Martin was a fool for not calling an election immediately after getting the Liberal Leadership, agreed?

Siege40

Had he done so, the new ridings would not have been used... which would have really pissed off people out West...
And what if the the sponsership scandel had broken half walf through the campaign?

The scandal stems from the presentation of the Auditor General's Report before Parliament.  Such report can only be presented while the Parliament is in session.  Hence, it might not have occured, or happened the way it did during the campaign.

What I really meant is that Martin, due to his over confidence in the Liberal victory put off the election so he could prance around being the PM. And then this happened. Does anyone get the feeling that Chretien is loving what is happening to Martin right now? All those years he plotted against him and now he's PM and this happens. Liberal arrogance started the Scandal, sponsorgate it's called around here, and Liberal arrogance allowed them to put off the election.

What would we do in Canada without Watergate, everytime something important happens we stick -gate on and it's a scandal, I wish we were more creative.

Siege40

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting question ...

During most of the 20th Century until 1984, the federal Liberals had a lock on all ridings, except the very very very and still very few conservatives who managed to win a seat.  The most notable example of the (I can't really use "these" as this would amount to a grammatical mistake) conservative as such is Roch Lasalle, who was the lone PC MP for Joliette in the 70's and 80's.

History may see the province as a special case. For more than 3 or 4 generations, from the late 19th century until 1984, Quebec continually gave nearly all its seats to the Liberals. Ontarians have a long way to go if they'd like to beat Quebec on that record eh... The exceptions were 1958 and 1911. Such Liberal hegemony had saved the party's skin in many elections, especially those that put them in minority. The most startling instance is in 1972, when Trudeau got in minority. The LPC won 109 seats, while the PC had 107. One may notice that more than 60 of the seats won by Trudeau that year were from Quebec.

For the PC, when we compare his 1984 and 1988 victories, we can see a strategy indirectly. In 1988, the PC won more seats in Quebec than in '84, while there were losses in BC and Ontario. The '88 campaign was centred on the Free Trade Agreement with the US, which was highly supported in Quebec.  Free Trade encountered stronger opposition in BC and Ontario.

For Paul Martin, the task is daunting in Quebec.  Especially in these times marked by the Sponsorship scandal. No federal Liberal leader managed to win a marority of the seats in Quebec since 1980, although Chrétien nearly succeed in 2000.

Canada seems to be in the middle of a political re-alignment , with the regionalist climate (which nearly killed off the NDP) of the 90's being replaced by...?

[Siege40]

Interesting question ...

During most of the 20th Century until 1984, the federal Liberals had a lock on all ridings, except the very very very and still very few conservatives who managed to win a seat.  The most notable example of the (I can't really use "these" as this would amount to a grammatical mistake) conservative as such is Roch Lasalle, who was the lone PC MP for Joliette in the 70's and 80's.

History may see the province as a special case. For more than 3 or 4 generations, from the late 19th century until 1984, Quebec continually gave nearly all its seats to the Liberals. Ontarians have a long way to go if they'd like to beat Quebec on that record eh... The exceptions were 1958 and 1911. Such Liberal hegemony had saved the party's skin in many elections, especially those that put them in minority. The most startling instance is in 1972, when Trudeau got in minority. The LPC won 109 seats, while the PC had 107. One may notice that more than 60 of the seats won by Trudeau that year were from Quebec.

For the PC, when we compare his 1984 and 1988 victories, we can see a strategy indirectly. In 1988, the PC won more seats in Quebec than in '84, while there were losses in BC and Ontario. The '88 campaign was centred on the Free Trade Agreement with the US, which was highly supported in Quebec.  Free Trade encountered stronger opposition in BC and Ontario.

For Paul Martin, the task is daunting in Quebec.  Especially in these times marked by the Sponsorship scandal. No federal Liberal leader managed to win a marority of the seats in Quebec since 1980, although Chrétien nearly succeed in 2000.

Canada seems to be in the middle of a political re-alignment , with the regionalist climate (which nearly killed off the NDP) of the 90's being replaced by...?

...Centralized Federalist Parties?

Siege40

[Neil.A]

800

[Canadian observer]

Ipsos-Reid poll has published a new poll, the Liberals had supposedly fallen to their lowest level of support since 1993

From Ipsos-Reid and the Globe and Mail.

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=1000 individuals
MoE: 3.1%
LPC 35%
CPC 28%
NDP 18%
BQ 10%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic
Subsample Size: n=62

LPC 41%
CPC 29%
NDP 22%

Quebec
Subsample Size: n=201

Bloc Québécois 45%
LPC 30%
CPC 11%
NDP 10%

Ontario
Subsample Size: n=346

LPC 41%
CPC 32%
NDP 19%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan
Subsample Size: n=53

CPC 36%
LPC 29%
NDP 27%

Alberta
Subsample Size: n=82

CPC 46%
LPC 31%
NDP 12%

British Columbia
Subsample Size: n=120

LPC 30%
CPC 27%
NDP 25%
Green Party 13%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=1000 individuals
MoE: 3.1%
LPC 35%
CPC 28%
NDP 18%
BQ 10%

Tories+BQ haven't really moved... NDP up by 3 points

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Very interesting... I'd like to see some provincial polls from the Atlantic... I'd guess based on those numbers that the Libs lead in Newfies, PEI and NB, while the NDP lead in NS. Can't tell for sure though (and the Atlantic is a tough place to poll).

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NDP up to 10%? Strange...
BQ lead over LPC up slightly (might be statistical noise though).

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My guess is that the Tories might be leading in rural SW or rural Eastern Ontario... they might also be polling well in the 905. The NDP *might* be leading in Northern Ontario and possibly inner Toronto. I'd love to see some numbers from Hamilton...

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The Praries are hell to poll (especially Saskatchewan) and it's difficult to read much into those figures.
The combined CA-PC vote has dropped from 2000 and the LPC are in serious trouble in Sask... but we all knew that anyway...

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Yaaaawn...

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A statistical dead heat. BC is also hard to poll... I'd cut the Green numbers a bit.
NDP will be leading on the Island and the CPC up the Fraser. I dunno about Vancouver and the Interior...

[Siege40]

The more I read these polls the more I consider moving to Winnipeg. It's good to see the NDP numbers moving again, especially in Quebec.

Siege

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There's a functional Green Party in Canada?   What's the difference between the Green Party and the NDP in terms of platform?

[Siege40]

There's a functional Green Party in Canada?   What's the difference between the Green Party and the NDP in terms of platform?

No so much difference in politics but in priority. The Green Party has also been known to be a little... extreme. I've read some of their ideas and they're a little radical, but their views on the environment are pretty hard. The NDP are more concerned with stuff like healthcare, education and foreign affairs. Green Party are environment first, everything else second.

Siege

[Kevinstat]

In September of 1993, when the Liberals were polling lower than they are now, what wast the result of the October election expected to be?  A Progressive Conservative majority government?  A Progressive Conservative minority government?  A Liberal minority government?  Did people expect another election to be called.  It's hard to believe the Progressive Conservatives could have been expected in September to win a majority of seats since they were so badly defeated only a month later, winning only two seats.  I know the results of the election were a shock, but what did people expect at various points in that campaign (both before and after the dissolution of parliament, and including election day before the exit polls)?  If anyone could give me some information on this I would appreciate it.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In September of 1993, when the Liberals were polling lower than they are now, what wast the result of the October election expected to be?  A Progressive Conservative majority government?  A Progressive Conservative minority government?  A Liberal minority government?  Did people expect another election to be called.  It's hard to believe the Progressive Conservatives could have been expected in September to win a majority of seats since they were so badly defeated only a month later, winning only two seats.  I know the results of the election were a shock, but what did people expect at various points in that campaign (both before and after the dissolution of parliament, and including election day before the exit polls)?  If anyone could give me some information on this I would appreciate it.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

I'm guessing at a LPC minority government (propped up by the NDP).
At the moment Electionprediction.com has these figures:

Lib: 100
CPC: 60
BQ: 31
NDP: 10
Too Close: 107

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a functional Green Party in Canada?   What's the difference between the Green Party and the NDP in terms of platform?

Everything.
The NDP are a mainstream social democratic party (who's base is blue collar workers in the West of Canada who are members of the United Church), while the Greenies... are... um... nuts basically. They have a right wing economic policy (and are very anti-Union)... but no one votes for them based on that. There voters are overwhelmingly middle class intellectual types and they have a chance at winning just one seat (Saanich-Gulf Islands) and I don't think they'll win that.
---
A simple way of putting it is like this: The loggers vote NDP. The people who chain themselves to trees vote Green.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newfoundland and Labrador

Bonavista-Exploits CPC v Lib
Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte Lib v NDP v CPC
Random-Burin-St.Georges Lib v CPC
St.Johns North CPC v Lib v NDP?

Prince Edward Island

Cardigan Lib v CPC

Nova Scotia

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour NDP v Lib
Halifax West Lib v NDP v CPC
Kings-Hants Lib v CPC
South Shore-St.Margaret's CPC v Lib v NDP
Sydney-Victoria Lib v NDP
West Nova Lib v CPC

New Brunswick

Fredericton Lib v CPC
Fundy Lib v CPC
Saint John CPC v Lib v NDP?

---
Bold=party currently holding seat

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I won't do Quebec as my knowledge of Quebec politics isn't very good...

Manicouagan (where Ducasse is running. He isn't going to win, but it'll still be interesting) and Chambly-Borduas (with an independent candidate... I think) look interesting, mind.

[Canadian observer]

In September of 1993, when the Liberals were polling lower than they are now, what wast the result of the October election expected to be?  A Progressive Conservative majority government?  A Progressive Conservative minority government?  A Liberal minority government?  Did people expect another election to be called.  It's hard to believe the Progressive Conservatives could have been expected in September to win a majority of seats since they were so badly defeated only a month later, winning only two seats.  I know the results of the election were a shock, but what did people expect at various points in that campaign (both before and after the dissolution of parliament, and including election day before the exit polls)?  If anyone could give me some information on this I would appreciate it.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

The 1993 Canadian federal election was the first I witnessed in my life though newspapers and broadcast media.  When former PC PM Kim Campbell dropped the writ in early September 1993, a minority government was widely expected.  At that stage, it was impossible to know which of the PC or the Liberals would form the minority government.

The unpopularity of the PC incumbent government quickly sunk the party's support and lifted off the support for the recently created Reform Party and Bloc Québécois.  Hence, the focus switched on a Liberal minority government.  From what I remember, few pollsters began to point to a Liberal majority government during the campaing last two weeks in mid-October.  Just before the election day, it was common wisdom that the PC was going to take its biggest slash since 1935, people expected the PC to finish with 20 seats.  However their catastrophic result that ensued the '93 campaign was quite unexpected.

[Canadian observer]

Manicouagan (where Ducasse is running. He isn't going to win, but it'll still be interesting)

He should've done like his leader Jack Layton: run in Ontario

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Other interesting races in Quebec (those I know so far)

Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
George Farrah, the Liberal candidate will try to keep the only seat the LPC hold in the Quebec far east.  He isn't immune to defeats, as he himself was defeated when he was MNA in Quebec.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
In 2000, Liberals won this seat due to BQ infighting during their nomination contest.  This year the Bloquistes seem to have got their act together, will they take back the sovereignist heartland ? Time will tell.

Beauport
This Quebec City riding has Dennis Dawson as Liberal candidate.  He's a friend of Paul Martin, but one should notice that Quebec City voters haven't been friendly lately to Grit Leaders' friends.  Just ask to Jean Pelletier, Jean Chrétien's former right hand man, who was Liberal candidate in Quebec in 1993, and beaten by an unknown BQ candidate. Martin parachuted Dawson in Beauport, thus cancelling a nomination contest in which three women were campaigning... Not a good act for a current PM who'd like more women to be involved in politics.

Louis-Hébert
This seat voted Liberal in 2000, mainly because of the forced mergers of the neighbouring municipalities to Quebec City that were done by the former PQ provincial government.  Voters eventually punished the BQ by proxy.  Let's see if Hélène Sherrer, the Liberal candidate, will be given the medecine back given the current unpopularity of the Liberal provincial government and the Sponsorship Scandal.

Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
This new federal riding covers only two provincial ridings that voted for the right-wing ADQ in the 2003 provincial election. If rumours that a major part of ADQ's provincial votes will translate into support for the Conservatives, this riding may be among the ones where the CPC gets his best score in Quebec.  However one should give the BQ an edge in this Quebec City region riding.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Manicouagan (where Ducasse is running. He isn't going to win, but it'll still be interesting)

He should've done like his leader Jack Layton: run in Ontario

Probably true... it'd be nice to see someone elected in Quebec not because of the soverignty debate (not that it'll happen though. Manicouagan seems to be something of a Seperatist stronghold)

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Interesting list. Thanks!
Any possible upsets?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something amazing has happend in Alberta... the Liberals' are targeting a rural seat!
Athabasca is in the far north of Alberta (as can be guessed by the name) and in 2000 the CA polled "just" 52% in the riding.
The CPC have selected a very, very bad candidate called Brian Jean (and their are rumours he won because of vote rigging) with a rather shady past.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ontario
Divided into regions. This list may grow

Metro Toronto

Beaches-East York Lib v NDP
Davenport Lib v NDP v Ind?
Parkdale-High Park Lib v NDP
Toronto-Danforth Lib v NDP
Trinity-Spadina Lib v NDP

905

Bramalea-Gore-Malton Lib v CPC
Brampton West Lib v CPC
Halton Lib v CPC
Hamilton Centre Lib v NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Lib v NDP v Ind?
Newmarket-Aurora Lib v CPC
Oakville Lib v CPC
Oshawa Lib v NDP v CPC

Ottawa & Eastern Ontario

Leeds-Grenville Lib v CPC
Nepean-Carleton Lib v CPC
Northumberland-Quinte West Lib v CPC
Ottawa Centre Lib v NDP
Ottawa West-Nepean Lib v CPC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke CPC v Lib

Northern Ontario

Kenora Lib v NDP
Nickel Belt Lib v NDP
Parry Sound-Muskoka Lib v CPC
Sault Ste.Marie Lib v NDP
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Lib v NDP

Southwest Ontario

Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound Lib v CPC
London-Fanshawe Lib v CPC v NDP
Barrie Lib v CPC
Wellington-Halton Hills Lib v CPC
Windsor West NDP v Lib

[Canadian observer]

Interesting list. Thanks!
Any possible upsets?

Laval-Les-Îles
Formerly Laval-Ouest, this is one of the four Laval ridings.  Laval is a barometer region, voters give their seat to the party who leads provincially.  If the BQ maintains its lead up to election day, almost no Liberal incumbent on the Île Jésus (Island on which the city of Laval is located) may feel secure.  Provincially only one of the six Laval seats is a Liberal stronghold: Chomedey.  However, Chomedey is divided almost equally between the federal ridings of Laval-Les-Îles and Laval.  Thus Raymonde Folco, the Grit candidate, needs to campaign a little more than count only on half of Chomedey's voters.

Laval
Formerly Laval-Centre, this riding has the other half of Chomedey provincial riding and major parts of three other provincial ridings that are winnable for the PQ, hence friendlier to BQ: Vimont, Milles-Îles and Laval-des-Rapides.  Pierre Lafleur, the Liberal candidate shouldn't take his riding for granted.  Nicole Demers, the BQ candidate, may surprise many in this riding, not because of her candidacy, but because of the characteristics of the riding.

Alfred-Pellan  
Formerly Laval-Est, and I think this riding includes the most francophone areas of Laval.  If Carole-Marie Allard, the Liberal candidate, wins it on election day, she may confirm expectations that she's a great candidate and has personality, and confirm that a vote for the Grits in this areas was a vote for Carole, not necessarily for Paul... However, like all Laval's federal ridings, she needs to campaign hard, as most polls put the BQ well in the lead among francophone voters.

Beauharnois-Salaberry
Liberals targeted and won this riding in 2000, their plan centered on the completion of the highway 30.  Four years later, no popularity for the Liberal overall in the province, and no highway 30 completed... Looks like Liberal might not win...

Lévis-Bellechasse
Christian Jobin, the Liberal candidate and MP of the current riding of Lévis-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, needs to work hard to keep his seat.  His 2000 win is generally attributed to the voters' wrath against the PQ city amalgamation plans.  This time, the Liberals feel the heat and when the 2000 results are transfered in the new riding, the Liberals would've lost.

Saint-Lambert
If Maka Kotto, BQ candidate and black artist, wins the riding, which seems to be at a striking distance for the party, that would mean the Liberals may end up with just 15 seats in the province...

Shefford
Diane St-Jacques, the Liberal candidate, won the riding in 1997, as a PC candidate.  Around 1998-1999, she switched to the Liberals and won the riding in 2000.  Given the depressing state of the support given to the Liberals these days, we may never know if she thought of switching to the BQ in order to win the seat ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting list. Thanks!
Any possible upsets?

Laval-Les-Îles
Formerly Laval-Ouest, this is one of the four Laval ridings.  Laval is a barometer region, voters give their seat to the party who leads provincially.  If the BQ maintains its lead up to election day, almost no Liberal incumbent on the Île Jésus (Island on which the city of Laval is located) may feel secure.  Provincially only one of the six Laval seats is a Liberal stronghold: Chomedey.  However, Chomedey is divided almost equally between the federal ridings of Laval-Les-Îles and Laval.  Thus Raymonde Folco, the Grit candidate, needs to campaign a little more than count only on half of Chomedey's voters.

Laval
Formerly Laval-Centre, this riding has the other half of Chomedey provincial riding and major parts of three other provincial ridings that are winnable for the PQ, hence friendlier to BQ: Vimont, Milles-Îles and Laval-des-Rapides.  Pierre Lafleur, the Liberal candidate shouldn't take his riding for granted.  Nicole Demers, the BQ candidate, may surprise many in this riding, not because of her candidacy, but because of the characteristics of the riding.

Alfred-Pellan  
Formerly Laval-Est, and I think this riding includes the most francophone areas of Laval.  If Carole-Marie Allard, the Liberal candidate, wins it on election day, she may confirm expectations that she's a great candidate and has personality, and confirm that a vote for the Grits in this areas was a vote for Carole, not necessarily for Paul... However, like all Laval's federal ridings, she needs to campaign hard, as most polls put the BQ well in the lead among francophone voters.

Beauharnois-Salaberry
Liberals targeted and won this riding in 2000, their plan centered on the completion of the highway 30.  Four years later, no popularity for the Liberal overall in the province, and no highway 30 completed... Looks like Liberal might not win...

Lévis-Bellechasse
Christian Jobin, the Liberal candidate and MP of the current riding of Lévis-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, needs to work hard to keep his seat.  His 2000 win is generally attributed to the voters' wrath against the PQ city amalgamation plans.  This time, the Liberals feel the heat and when the 2000 results are transfered in the new riding, the Liberals would've lost.

Saint-Lambert
If Maka Kotto, BQ candidate and black artist, wins the riding, which seems to be at a striking distance for the party, that would mean the Liberals may end up with just 15 seats in the province...

Shefford
Diane St-Jacques, the Liberal candidate, won the riding in 1997, as a PC candidate.  Around 1998-1999, she switched to the Liberals and won the riding in 2000.  Given the depressing state of the support given to the Liberals these days, we may never know if she thought of switching to the BQ in order to win the seat ...

Thanks!
Quebec politics is interesting but perplexing...
How do you think the ADQ voters will split?

[Canadian observer]

How do you think the ADQ voters will split?

... hard question.  I guess they presently rallied around the BQ given the high score the party has and the low score given to the Conservatives.

If the conservatives want to win one or two seats in Quebec, they'd need to bring back André Bachand, the only PC MP elected in Quebec in 2000.  If the party wants to get most of ADQ's votes, Mario Dumont, ADQ leader, should publicly rally behind the CPC; thus giving a message for his supporters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How do you think the ADQ voters will split?

... hard question.  I guess they presently rallied around the BQ given the high score the party has and the low score given to the Conservatives.

If the conservatives want to win one or two seats in Quebec, they'd need to bring back André Bachand, the only PC MP elected in Quebec in 2000.  If the party wants to get most of ADQ's votes, Mario Dumont, ADQ leader, should publicly rally behind the CPC; thus giving a message for his supporters.

Very interesting... thanks.
Are the Provincial and Federal Liberals linked in Quebec (like Manitoba) or seperate (like BC)?

[Siege40]

Why are the Conservatives the contenders to beat the Liberals in the 905? I live in the 905, in the district of Brampton Center, with Sarkis NixonNowourian, he never replies to my e-mails, I want the NDP in here.

Siege