2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Changes from the 2000 election:

BC
CPC -26%
LPC +7%
NDP +20%

Alberta
CPC -13%
LPC +6%
NDP +6%

Sask
CPC -7%
LPC +6%
NDP +1%

Manitoba
CPC -13%
LPC +3%
NDP +11%

Ontario
CPC -5%
LPC -5%
NDP +13%

Quebec
BQ +5%
CPC -3%
LPC -7%
NDP +6%

CPC=CA+PC, I don't have combined Atlantic numbers, remember: it's seats that count

[Kevinstat]

I'll add an entry for Canada to Al's list of changes from the 2000 election to the Envioronics Poll, rounding the 2000 percentages to the nearest integer.

Canada
BQ no change
CPC -7%
LPC -2%
NDP +10-11% (I'm not sure whether the NDP got just above 8.5% in 2000 or just below)

When you look at these numbers, it seems at first like the Liberals are positioned to retain a majority of the seats.  But then you will realize, as I did, that in the 2000 election the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives each fielded candidates in many of the ridings, thus helping the other parties including the Liberals.  In the future, I might make a list like Al's, but one that describes the CPC an extention of one or the other of the two parties that combined to form it (or perhaps the larger one in each province).

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other than the Quebec numbers, the ones that will have Martin worried is Ontario... although both the "United Right" and the Liberals have fallen from 2000, the NDP have surged, meaning that they should pick up extra seats (at the Liberal's expense), while playing spoiler elsewhere.
---
I'm going to compare these numbers to historical ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP are polling at traditional levels in all areas except for the Atlantic...
Who'd of guessed that the lasting political trend of the '90's would have been the rise of the NDP in Atlantic Canada?
---
Traditional levels of support for the NDP:

Alberta=about 10%
BC=about 30%
Sask=about 30%
Manitoba=about 30%
Ontario=about 20%
Quebec=about 7%
Atlantic=about 10% (varies from province to province)
---
Old voting patterns never die... they merely fade away for a few years before returning...

[Siege40]

Well done NDP, let the surge continue! I heard that the writ could be dropped a few days after the Washington trip. I disagree, since that it would only hurt support around Canada to be seen as pro-American, except maybe in the pro-America regions of Ontario and the West.

Siege

[Kevinstat]

Just for fun, I decided see what the results of the 2000 Federal Election (in terms of the number of seats gained by each party) would have been both transposed onto the new ridings (which has already been done, see http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=cir&document=index&dir=tran&lang=e&textonly=false ) and with votes for both the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Consevative Party transferred to the Conservative Party of Canada.  To save time, I'm just going to list the riding names and party abreviations in English where both languages are used and the spellings differ.  To save even more time, I will only list the new ridings where the CA and PC combined recieved the most votes but niether party recieved the most votes by itself.

Newfoundland and Labrador:
LPC 5 (no change)
CPC 2 (both PC seats)
% of the vote: LPC 44.9%, CPC 38.3%, NDP 13.1%, Others 3.7%

Prince Edward Island:
LPC 3 (would lose Cardigan)
CPC 1 (would gain Cardigan)
% of the vote: LPC 47.0%, CPC 43.4%, NDP 9.0%, Others 0.5%

Nova Scotia:
CPC 5 (all PC seats)
LPC 3 (no change)
NDP 3 (no change)
% of the vote: CPC 38.7%, LPC 36.5%, NDP 24.0%, Others 0.9%

New Brunswick:
CPC 5 (all PC seats plus Fredericton)
LPC 4 (would lose Fredericton)
NDP 1 (no change)
% of the vote: CPC 46.3%, LPC 41.7%, NDP 11.7%, Others 0.3%

Atlantic Provinces overall: LPC 15, CPC 13, NDP 4
% of the vote: CPC 41.5%, LPC 40.7%, NDP 16.6%, Others 1.2%

Quebec:
BQ 38 (no change)
LPC 36 (no change)
CPC 1 (the one PC seat)
% of the vote: LPC 44.2%, BQ 39.9%, CPC 11.7%, NDP 1.8%, Others 2.3%

Ontario:
LPC 78 (would lose Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, Burlington, Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge, Dufferin—Caledon, Elgin—Middlesex—London, Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound, Haldimand—Norfolk, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, Kitchener—Conestoga, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington, Leeds—Grenville, Nepean—Carleton, Niagara Falls, Niagara West—Glanbrook, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oshawa, Ottawa West—Nepean, Oxford, Perth—Wellington, Prince Edward—Hastings, St. Catharines, Simcoe—Grey, Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, Wellington—Halton Hills and York—Simcoe)
CPC 28 (both CA seats plus Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, Burlington, Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge, Dufferin—Caledon, Elgin—Middlesex—London, Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound, Haldimand—Norfolk, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, Kitchener—Conestoga, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington, Leeds—Grenville, Nepean—Carleton, Niagara Falls, Niagara West—Glanbrook, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oshawa, Ottawa West—Nepean, Oxford, Perth—Wellington, Prince Edward—Hastings, St. Catharines, Simcoe—Grey, Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, Wellington—Halton Hills and York—Simcoe)
NDP 0 (the transposition alone takes its one seat away)
% of the vote: LPC 51.5%, CPC 38.0%, NDP 8.3%, Others 2.2%

Manitoba:
CPC 7 (all CA and PC seats plus Charleswood—St. James and Kildonan—St. Paul)
NDP 4 (no change)
LPC 3 (would lose Charleswood—St. James and Kildonan—St. Paul)
% of the vote: CPC 44.9%, LPC 32.5%, NDP 20.9%, Others 1.7%

Saskatchewan:
CPC 11 (all CA seats plus Palliser and Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar)
LPC 2 (no change)
NDP 1 (would lose Palliser and Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar)
% of the vote: CPC 52.5%, NDP 26.2%, LPC 20.7%, Others 0.6%

Prairie Provinces (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) overall: CPC 18, LPC 5, NDP 5
% of the vote: CPC 48.5%, LPC 27.0%, NDP 23.4%, Others 1.2%

Alberta:
CPC 27 (all CA seats plus Edmonton Centre)
LPC 1 (would lose Edmonton Centre)
% of the vote: CPC 72.3%, LPC 20.9%, NDP 5.4%, Others 1.3%

British Columbia:
CPC 30 (all CA seats plus Burnaby—Douglas)
LPC 5 (no change)
NDP 1 (would lose Burnaby—Douglas)
% of the vote: CPC 56.7%, LPC 27.7%, NDP 11.3%, Others 4.3%

The Territories (% of the vote, with winning parties indicated):
Yukon Territory: CPC 35.2% (win, gains Yukon), LPC 32.5% (loses Yukon), NDP 31.9%, Others 0.4%
Northwest Territories: LPC 45.6% (win), CPC 27.7%, NDP 26.7%
Navanut: LPC 69.0% (win), NDP 18.3%, CPC 8.2%, Others 4.5%

The Territories overall: LPC 2 seats, CPC 1 seat
% of the vote: LPC 45.8%, NDP 26.8%, CPC 26.2%, Others 1.2%

CANADA overall: LPC 142 seats (46.1%), CPC 118 seats (38.3%), BQ 38 seats (12.3%), NDP 10 seats (3.2%), Others 0 seats
% of the vote: LPC 40.8%, CPC 37.7%, BQ 10.7%, NDP 8.5%, Others 2.3%

I have finally finished.  The Liberals would lose 32 seats (from what they would have with the transposition but without the CA-PC merger) and their majority in the House of Commons in this case scenario, with 26 of them from Ontario.  I know that not all of the CA and especially PC votes will go to the CPC, but this post could be a benchmark for what the polling numbers indicate.  The Liberals would likely need to do better than they did in 2000 in terms of percentage of the vote in order to keep their majority, and before the sponsorship scandal that seemed like a certainty.  Now, however, as anyone who has followed this thread knows, it certainly isn't.

While the Conservatives and the New Democrats are on opposite sides of the Liberals, in a way the Liberals could take comfort in the high NDP polling numbers since it means the Conservatives are doing worse given their own (the Liberal's) numbers.  If Liberal support were constant and above all other parties, they would likely benefit from the opposition being more closely divided.  Of course there's a good chance that most supporters of all three major opposition parties in Canada would vote for the Liberals before either of the other two, if the Liberals lose support to the NDP it is probably not as bad as them losing support to the Conservatives.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[WMS]

Well done NDP, let the surge continue! I heard that the writ could be dropped a few days after the Washington trip. I disagree, since that it would only hurt support around Canada to be seen as pro-American, except maybe in the pro-America regions of Ontario and the West.

Siege

How lovely that the international tradition of left-wing anti-Americanism continues... This is a major reason I tend to oppose leftists in international elections, even if they may be the better party on other issues...which is why I'm glad the FMLN lost the presidential race in El Salvador, as one example. Honestly, when international leftists make a point of being anti-American, they tend to turn Americans against them and toward more nationalistic candidates (usually the Republicans!). I know I feel more like voting for Bush every time an international leftie spouts another screed...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

  Sadly for me bringing up facts, I am derrided as a "gloom & doomer".

Do you plan to be around Thursday, when Q1 QDP numbers are released?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Jobless claims fall by 18,000
 
Initial claims for unemployment insurance come in below estimates.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/29/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

---

Q1 2004 GDP +4.2%

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, grew at a 4.2 percent rate in the quarter after growth of 4.1 percent at the end of last year. Economists had forecast growth of 5.0 percent for the first quarter, according to a survey by Briefing.com.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/29/news/economy/gdp/index.htm

[© tweed]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2118

"Grits Slump (35%) as Conservatives (28%) Eat Into Ontario, NDP Support Rises (18%) and Bloc (45%) Hold 15 Point Lead Over Liberals in Quebec. Green Party Steady at 5%.

Lowest Level of Liberal Support Since September 1993 As Momentum for Liberal Party and Martin Drags, Other Leaders and Parties Get Boost.

Seat Model Projection Indicates If Election Held Tomorrow, Liberals Would Form Minority Government with 144-148 Seats, Conservatives with 82-86, NDP with 19-23, Bloc with 55-59"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2118

"Grits Slump (35%) as Conservatives (28%) Eat Into Ontario, NDP Support Rises (18%) and Bloc (45%) Hold 15 Point Lead Over Liberals in Quebec. Green Party Steady at 5%.

Lowest Level of Liberal Support Since September 1993 As Momentum for Liberal Party and Martin Drags, Other Leaders and Parties Get Boost.

Seat Model Projection Indicates If Election Held Tomorrow, Liberals Would Form Minority Government with 144-148 Seats, Conservatives with 82-86, NDP with 19-23, Bloc with 55-59"

Layton has the "Big Mo" right now

[Siege40]

Well done NDP, let the surge continue! I heard that the writ could be dropped a few days after the Washington trip. I disagree, since that it would only hurt support around Canada to be seen as pro-American, except maybe in the pro-America regions of Ontario and the West.

Siege

How lovely that the international tradition of left-wing anti-Americanism continues... This is a major reason I tend to oppose leftists in international elections, even if they may be the better party on other issues...which is why I'm glad the FMLN lost the presidential race in El Salvador, as one example. Honestly, when international leftists make a point of being anti-American, they tend to turn Americans against them and toward more nationalistic candidates (usually the Republicans!). I know I feel more like voting for Bush every time an international leftie spouts another screed...

Not Anti-American, Canadians are very anti-Bush, 82% of us don't like him, so for Martin to be cosing up to him is likely unwise. Most international left parties are against America because A) America too far right for their tastes B) America is precieved as Imperialist or C) Whatever the major issue of the day is, they're against America's stance.

Siege

[Kevinstat]

New Ipsos-Reid poll: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2199

"Volatile Voters Bounce Grits Back Into Majority Territory (40% +5) As Conservatives Stumble (23% -5)

NDP 18% (Unchanged), Bloc 11% (Bloc +1 at 46% with Grits at 33% in Quebec), Green 5% (Unchanged)

Seat Model Projects Liberals Taking 153-157 Seats, Conservatives 66-70 Seats, Bloc 58-62 Seats, NDP 19-23 Seats

155 Seats Needed For Majority

Majority (59%) Think Federal Liberals Don’t Deserve To Be Re-Elected And Time Another Party Given Chance To Govern Country"

[Siege40]

I was wondering how long it would take before someone said something about that. Good Old Joe Clark, well done, preserving the Martin Regime. I can't blame the man, I'd of done the same. Red Tories become Blue Liberals. There's something else that I think is ignored. Martin got Bush to say that the Beef Market should be opening up ASAP, that's good news for the West and for Liberals, not for Conservatives.

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Dippers might overtake the Tories? Whooo hooo!
---
If Martin somehow clings onto his majority (ala Chretien in 97) he's got Joe Clark to thank.
BTW Clark endorsed Broadbent for Ottawa Centre

[Siege40]

That's cause Broadbent is cool, unlike that Liberal.

Siege

[Canadian observer]

Here's a graphic I've done, based on poll results in Canada from July 2000 to present days.  I gathered the results from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, their website features a national table of federal party support.  Here's also a link of the Excel document I created in order to do the graph:

http://www.freewebs.com/gatqc/Federal%20Polls%202000-2004.xls

Note: If you can't see the graph, open this link

[Siege40]

I just found out something interesting, longtime Chretienite Sarkis NixonNowourian has been asked to move aside in Brampton-Springdale, they're planning on bringing in a star canidate for the election. The Liberal that was running to challenge Sarkis was asked to step aside also to make room for this canidate. A similar occurance has taken place in Calgary where a long time Liberal supporter canidate is being asked to step aside and make room for a former police chief. Also of the 5 people that Broadbent said supported him the two Conservatives have taken it back (damn them).

It's nice being in a riding to watch.

Siege

[Siege40]

Here's a graphic I've done, based on poll results in Canada from July 2000 to present days.  I gathered the results from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, their website features a national table of federal party support.  Here's also a link of the Excel document I created in order to do the graph:

http://www.freewebs.com/gatqc/Federal%20Polls%202000-2004.xls

Note: If you can't see the graph, open this link

Nice work, the May 2nd 2004 results make me smile.

Siege

[WMS]

Well done NDP, let the surge continue! I heard that the writ could be dropped a few days after the Washington trip. I disagree, since that it would only hurt support around Canada to be seen as pro-American, except maybe in the pro-America regions of Ontario and the West.

Siege

How lovely that the international tradition of left-wing anti-Americanism continues... This is a major reason I tend to oppose leftists in international elections, even if they may be the better party on other issues...which is why I'm glad the FMLN lost the presidential race in El Salvador, as one example. Honestly, when international leftists make a point of being anti-American, they tend to turn Americans against them and toward more nationalistic candidates (usually the Republicans!). I know I feel more like voting for Bush every time an international leftie spouts another screed...

Not Anti-American, Canadians are very anti-Bush, 82% of us don't like him, so for Martin to be cosing up to him is likely unwise. Most international left parties are against America because A) America too far right for their tastes B) America is precieved as Imperialist or C) Whatever the major issue of the day is, they're against America's stance.

Siege

The differences can be hard to detect in rhetoric...as for the int'l left:
A) Tough. We ARE too far right for their tastes, and that ain't likely to change. Mind you, I think the int'l left is used to dealing with the business right, it is the moral and religious right that blow their synapses...not being in favor of moral relativism must be a very unusual position on the left.
B) We're big, we're rich, we're powerful, and we wield it in our interests. History declares this normal behavior, the left calls it imperialism. Funny how they tend to ignore imperialism of the left (remember Communist military expansion?), but that is to be expected from people who worship Castro.
C) Knee-jerk anti-Americanism...I KNEW IT! We aren't like them, we never will be, and that must drive the int'l left insane. We ARE correct sometimes you know, but I don't expect the left to admit it...they're still in denial over the whole USSR=evil connection.

Thanks for a measured reply, however!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a graphic I've done, based on poll results in Canada from July 2000 to present days.  I gathered the results from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, their website features a national table of federal party support.  Here's also a link of the Excel document I created in order to do the graph:

http://www.freewebs.com/gatqc/Federal%20Polls%202000-2004.xls

Note: If you can't see the graph, open this link

Excellent!

[Storebought]

Had to BUMP this thread up.

You all know LA's final result: Blanco 52% Jindal 48%. The north Louisiana--I mean, south Arkansas--hillbillies thought Jindal was an Iraqi terrorist and voted for the White candidate.

I will be so glad when I move from this state in summer (to good Texas). Kathleen Blanco has reneged on every campaign promise she made during the runoff and stacked the Legislature leadership with Edwin Edwards throwbacks, all in around 100 days! Disgusting.

LA had the chance to embrace the right-leaning progressive Jindal, but instead chose an airheaded Baton Rouge maw-maw with a power complex--she wears honeybee pins on her lapels, just like her hero Napoleon.

Blanco is a sixty-year-old paperweight, exactly what a dying state like LA needs for the 21st century.


 

[Siege40]

Well done NDP, let the surge continue! I heard that the writ could be dropped a few days after the Washington trip. I disagree, since that it would only hurt support around Canada to be seen as pro-American, except maybe in the pro-America regions of Ontario and the West.

Siege

How lovely that the international tradition of left-wing anti-Americanism continues... This is a major reason I tend to oppose leftists in international elections, even if they may be the better party on other issues...which is why I'm glad the FMLN lost the presidential race in El Salvador, as one example. Honestly, when international leftists make a point of being anti-American, they tend to turn Americans against them and toward more nationalistic candidates (usually the Republicans!). I know I feel more like voting for Bush every time an international leftie spouts another screed...

Not Anti-American, Canadians are very anti-Bush, 82% of us don't like him, so for Martin to be cosing up to him is likely unwise. Most international left parties are against America because A) America too far right for their tastes B) America is precieved as Imperialist or C) Whatever the major issue of the day is, they're against America's stance.

Siege

The differences can be hard to detect in rhetoric...as for the int'l left:
A) Tough. We ARE too far right for their tastes, and that ain't likely to change. Mind you, I think the int'l left is used to dealing with the business right, it is the moral and religious right that blow their synapses...not being in favor of moral relativism must be a very unusual position on the left.
B) We're big, we're rich, we're powerful, and we wield it in our interests. History declares this normal behavior, the left calls it imperialism. Funny how they tend to ignore imperialism of the left (remember Communist military expansion?), but that is to be expected from people who worship Castro.
C) Knee-jerk anti-Americanism...I KNEW IT! We aren't like them, we never will be, and that must drive the int'l left insane. We ARE correct sometimes you know, but I don't expect the left to admit it...they're still in denial over the whole USSR=evil connection.

Thanks for a measured reply, however!

Indeed, the religious right is an aspect that is seen as nuts in America. Case in point that Rhea County instance we talked about earlier this year.

When I raised the issue of Imperialism I did not say that Communist Imperialism was any better than anyother form of Imperialism. I'm not a Communism, and I don't like communism, it's dictatorial, I'm a Socialist, Democracy my friend. I think anyform of Imperialism is bad, American, Communist, British, Japanese or French their all bad in my books. Right of self determination. About worshipping Castro, you must be sniffing glue, Castro is no more important than any other world leader in my books, very few international left wing parties support Castro openly.

Once again, American moralizing of everything, the USSR is no more evil than any other former empire, some of their actions were brutal, but to call the entire nation evil seems a little rediculous. I never said that America was always wrong, but when your government is run by the right there's a lot to disagree with.

Siege

[© tweed]

I'm not a Communism

That just sounded funny, sorry

[© tweed]

THE WAY TO GO: