2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Possible three way race in BC:
Skeena-Bulkley Valley.
Currently held by CPC, has a long NDP history, Liberals have a strong candidate.

[Canadian observer]

For the ones who crave numbers here are two new polls published on CTV (done by Ipsos-Reid) and the National Post (done by Compas [PDF File])

====================

Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe&Mail Poll
Interviews conducted from May 11th to 17th '04

From Ipsos-Reid.

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=2,000 individuals
MoE: 2.2%

LPC 39%
CPC 26%
NDP 15%
BQ 12%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 154

LPC 49%
CPC 29%
NDP 20%

Quebec
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 496

Bloc Québécois 48%
LPC 28%
CPC 9%
NDP 6%

Ontario
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 759

LPC 49%
CPC 27%
NDP 17%

Prairies
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 136

LPC 38%
CPC 33%
NDP 20%

Alberta
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 194

CPC 50%
LPC 31%
NDP 10%

British Columbia
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 265

LPC 33%
CPC 31%
NDP 27%

====================

Compas/National Post/Canwest Global Poll
Interviews conducted from May 15th to 19th '04

From Compas (PDF File).

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=1,579 individuals
MoE: 3.1%
Note: Regional Sub-sample sizes not available

LPC 39%
CPC 31%
NDP 17%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 50%
CPC 26%
NDP 20%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 43%
LPC 40%
NDP 9%
CPC 6%

Ontario

LPC 42%
CPC 39%
NDP 18%

Prairies

LPC 35%
NDP 32%
CPC 27%

Alberta

CPC 57%
LPC 27%
NDP 14%

British Columbia

CPC 40%
LPC 32%
NDP 26%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not a fan of either firm... Ipsos-Reid is a "little" erratic... and Compas have a tendency to ask... er... rather loaded questions... (designed to get higher %'s for right wing parties) which is tragic as otherwise they are a good firm...

[Kevinstat]

I'm not a fan of either firm... Ipsos-Reid is a "little" erratic...

Well at least Ipsos-Reid doesn't make you wait two months to see the latest trends, as Envioronics seems to.  I'm looking forward to seeing the next Envioronics poll, since they are supposably the Creme de La Creme of Canadian polling firms.

Edited to replace while with well.

[© tweed]

How does compas have the CPC within the MoE in Ontario?  Are they nuts?

[Canadian observer]

How does compas have the CPC within the MoE in Ontario?  Are they nuts?

They might not be nuts.  This is the first poll done just after the presentation of the Ontarian budget by the provincial government, led by Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty.  The public reaction seems highly negative against the Ontario provincial Liberals.  Medias report that may spill over the electoral fortunes of the federal Liberals in this province.

[© tweed]

I still think they are nuts.
The CPC will get TRASHED in Toronto

[Nym90]

Siege40--

You are wanted at the Fantasy elections board...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not a fan of either firm... Ipsos-Reid is a "little" erratic...

Well at least Ipsos-Reid doesn't make you wait two months to see the latest trends, as Envioronics seems to.  I'm looking forward to seeing the next Envioronics poll, since they are supposably the Creme de La Creme of Canadian polling firms.

Edited to replace while with well.

That's the main problem with Envioronics...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How does compas have the CPC within the MoE in Ontario?  Are they nuts?

They might not be nuts.  This is the first poll done just after the presentation of the Ontarian budget by the provincial government, led by Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty.  The public reaction seems highly negative against the Ontario provincial Liberals.  Medias report that may spill over the electoral fortunes of the federal Liberals in this province.

Compas tends to... um... ask rather... er... loaded questions to get higher results for right wing parties, but as they are otherwise a good firm it's not a good idea to just ignore them.
I'd knock about 3% of the CPC results in Ontario.
---
The LPO have run into some trouble of late... as is evidenced by the Hamilton East by-election. Although Horwath was expected to win, she wasn't expected to win by the amount she did...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The CPC will get TRASHED in Toronto

True. They only have a chance in about 4 Metro seats.
But Ontario is not just Toronto...

[Siege40]

As a citizen of Ontario I can tell you the following, 1. Canada is not like the United States when it comes to State/Province vs. Federal government, they're all the same and hate and love is easily shifted. 2. Ontarians are mad at the Liberals, there's two thoughts one is I hate the Liberals the second is they had no choice, it's reasonable.

Despite being an NDP I'm the second one, tough choices, but they had to be made, the health primiums could of been more progressive though.

Siege

[© tweed]

But Ontario is not just Toronto...

5/12 of it is...if the CPC only wins 2 or three seats in Toronto they will not win a substantial amount in Ontario

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But Ontario is not just Toronto...

5/12 of it is...if the CPC only wins 2 or three seats in Toronto they will not win a substantial amount in Ontario

Depends what a substantial amount means... I hear the CPC think that they will win *at least* 20 seats in Ontario (mostly in long time PC bastions that fell in the '93 Grit sweep).

[© tweed]

Election Prediction says in Ontario: 57 seats for the LPC, compared to nine for the CPC and three for the NDP.

Sounds like the Libs will win by more than 3%

[© tweed]

Another thing: How do the steel people vote in hamilton?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another thing: How do the steel people vote in hamilton?

This year, almost certainly NDP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Election Prediction says in Ontario: 57 seats for the LPC, compared to nine for the CPC and three for the NDP.

Sounds like the Libs will win by more than 3%

EPP also has a lot of ridings "TCTC" but, yes I'd agree with you, the Grits will win Ontario by more than 3%

[© tweed]

Another thing: How do the steel people vote in hamilton?

This year, almost certainly NDP

Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Martin has (finally) dropped the Writ: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3740871.stm

[Nym90]

Kevinstat--

You should register to vote in the fantasy elections. We have a presidential election coming up in June. Here's the link...

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=13;action=display;threadid=2153;start=330

[© tweed]

June 28th huh?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

June 28th huh?

Yep

[© tweed]

Hey Al

I am expecting a seat-by-seat prediction from you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey Al

I am expecting a seat-by-seat prediction from you.

I'm going to
WARNING: Canada has just gone through a major political realignment... as a result it may be more difficult to predict individual ridings than normal.