2004 Democratic Primary

[© tweed]

Okay...get at least 75% right though

I'll do Ontario...  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Okay...get at least 75% right though

I'll do Ontario...  

Take a look at: http://www.electionprediction.org/2004_fed/index.html

[© tweed]

Take a look at: http://www.electionprediction.org/2004_fed/index.html

I know that site.  I'll copy their picks, and make my one in races in which they deem too close to call.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Take a look at: http://www.electionprediction.org/2004_fed/index.html

I know that site.  I'll copy their picks, and make my one in races in which they deem too close to call.

Good luck!

[Kevinstat]

Thanks for the invite, Nym.  I registered last night, but I'm thinking of changing my name to Kevinstat since most people use their screen names as their names in the Atlas Fantasy Forum.  You'll be happy to know I registered with your party.  I have a strong independent streak, however, and while I vote nearly 100% Democratic in real elections, I am not to be taken for granted in the Atlas Fantasy elections.

I have gotten behind in my Ipsos reporting.  Now that the election has been called, other polls are sure to occur more frequently, lessening one of Ipsos-Reid's main advantages.  Here are the last two Ipsos-Reid polls that actually include voter intentions by party:

May 20, 2004 ( http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2241 )

"Into The Election Window:

Overall Vote Stable Since Last Poll -- Liberals (39%), Conservatives (26%), NDP (15%), Bloc (48% In Quebec vs. 28% Liberals), Green Party (5%)

Liberals In Majority Territory If Vote Held Today, But Voter Dynamic Volatile And Minority Lurks

Paul Martin Trails Other Leaders Badly (-26) On Momentum With Jack Layton (+9) And Stephen Harper (+8) Having More Traction"

-----

May 22, 2004 ( http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2246 )

"Liberals Flirt With Minority Status

Liberals Slip To 35% (-4), Conservatives Hold At 26%, NDP 18% (+3)

In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois Has Widened Lead Over Liberals To 22 Points (50% vs. 28%)

Seat Projection Model Shows Liberals With Potential 158-162 Seats, Conservatives 66-70 Seats, NDP 17-21 Seats, And Bloc 59-63 Seats, If Vote Held Today"

[Canadian observer]

Environics has published its most recent poll.  The interviews were done in the week before Parliament was dissolved (May 12-18).

====================

Environics/CBC/Radio-Canada Poll
Interviews conducted from May 12th to 18th '04

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=2,100 individuals (1,000 in Quebec - 1,000 in the rest of Canada)
MoE: 2.14%

LPC 38%
CPC 29%
NDP 21%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 63%
CPC 24%
NDP 12%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 48%
LPC 32%
CPC 10%
NDP 10%

Ontario

LPC 46%
CPC 29%
NDP 22%

Prairies
Note : The sub-sample includes Alberta

CPC 51%
NDP 24%
LPC 24%


British Columbia

NDP 36%
CPC 34%
LPC 27%

[Canadian observer]

The general mood in the area where I live is the expectation of a Liberal minority.  That may be far from being good news for the Grits.

The Quebec Polling Firm Léger Marketing did a poll in which they asked the respondents their voting intentions in the case they're certain Liberal would get a minority : Liberals support falls in Quebec from 35% to 25% ...

Paul Martin doesn't seem to impress in the first days of the campaign.  In his first speech of the campaign he was struggling with his words.  His first attacks on Stephen Harper weren't succesful.  In that regard, the Conservative leader had one of the best répliques: "You can be Canadian without voting Liberal".

On a more interesting note in Quebec, the Liberal slogan in my province is Allons droit devant avec l'équipe Martin (Translation: Let's go straight ahead with the Martin Team).  The french newspaper Le Devoir ran a story on that slogan, which was the same used by Canada Steamship Lines for a Human Resource program.  CSL was a company owned by Paul Martin.  Before publishing, Le Devoir got a call from David McKinnon, the spin doctor-in-chief for Martin.  He asked the newspaper not to publish the article because it could harm their campaign.  No fools in Le Devoir ... They ran the story and put McKinnon quotes in it ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 63%
CPC 24%
NDP 12%

The Atlantic is very hard to poll... my guess is that this is a Newfies (or NB) heavy sample, while Ipsos's recent one was an NS heavy sample... either way it looks as though the Red Tories aren't impressed with Harper

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Big BQ lead... no shocks there... have there been any polls done just in Quebec as opposed to a regional sample?

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With those figures the Dippers could end up with more Ontario seats than the CPC...

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The CPC will be polling very strongly in Alberta (probably a majority of the sample) which means that the Dippers are strong in Sask and Manitoba...

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Liberals doing their traditional post-writ drop *again*... Good numbers for the NDP

[© tweed]

Zogby has Martin's approval at 26%...ick

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

GDP growth rate revised up to 4.4% from 4.2%

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/27/news/economy/gdp_revision/index.htm

---

Not that it matter to people when gas is over $2 a gallon.

[© tweed]

I completed my Ontario Predictions.

----------------------------------------------

2004 Canadian Federal Election-Ontario

Metro Toronto

Beaches-East York: NDP
Davenport: LPC
Don Valley East: LPC
Don Valley West: LPC
Eglinton-Lawrence: LPC
Etobicoke Centre: LPC
Etobichoke-Lakeshore: LPC
Etobichoke North: LPC
Parksdale-High Park: LPC
St. Paul’s: LPC
Scarborough-Agincourt: LPC
Scarborough-Centre: LPC
Scarborough-Guildwood: LPC
Scarborough-Rouge River: LPC
Scarborough-Southwest: LPC
Toronto Centre: LPC
Toronto-Danforth: NDP
Trinity-Spadina: NDP
Willowdale: CPC
York Centre: LPC
York South-Weston: LPC
York West: LPC

Total for Urban Toronto: LPC 18, NDP 3, CPC 1

905 Suburbs

Ajax-Pickering: LPC
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale: CPC
Bramaela-Gore-Malton: CPC
Brampton-Springdale: LPC
Brampton West: CPC
Burlington: CPC
Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge: CPC
Dufferin-Caledon: CPC
Halton: CPC
Hamilton-Centre: NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: NDP
Hamilton Mountain: NDP
Markham-Unionville: LPC
Mississauga-Brampton South: LPC
Mississauga East-Cookville: LPC
Mississauga-Erindale: LPC
Mississauga South: CPC
Mississauga-Streetsville: LPC
Newmarket-Aurora: CPC
Niagra Falls: CPC
Niagra West-Glanbrook: CPC
Oak Ridges-Markham: CPC
Oakville: CPC
Oshawa: CPC
Pickering-Scarborough East: LPC
Richmond Hill: LPC
Saint Catherines: LPC
Thornhill: LPC
Vaughan: LPC
Welland: LPC
Whitby-Oshawa: LPC
York-Simcoe: CPC

Total for the 905 Suburbs: CPC 15, LPC 13, NDP 3

Ottawa & Eastern Toronto

Carleton-Lanark: CPC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: LPC
Haliburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock: CPC
Kingston and The Islands: LPC
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington: CPC
Leeds-Greenville: CPC
Nepean-Carleton: CPC
Northumberland-Quinte West: CPC
Ottawa-Centre: NDP
Ottawa-Orleans: CPC
Ottawa-South: LPC
Ottawa-Vanier: LPC
Ottawa West-Napean: LPC
Peterborough: LPC
Prince Edward-Hastings: CPC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke: CPC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry: LPC

Total for Ottawa & Eastern Toronto: CPC 9, LPC 7, NDP 1

North[/u]

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: LPC
Kenora: LPC
Nickel Belt: LPC
Nipissing-Timiskaming: LPC
Parry Sound-Muskoka: CPC
Sault St. Marie: NDP
Sudbury: LPC
Thunder Bay-Rainy River: CPC
Thunder Bay-Superior North: LPC
Timmins-James Bay: LPC

Total for The North: LPC 7, CPC 2, NDP 1

Southwest

Cambridge: CPC
Chatham-Kent-Essex: LPC
Elgin-Middlesex-London: CPC
Essex: LPC
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound: CPC
Guelph: LPC
Haldimand-Norfolk: LPC
Brant: LPC
Huron-Bruce: LPC
Kitchener Centre: LPC
Kitchener-Conestoga: LPC
Kitchener-Waterloo: LPC
London-Fanshawe: LPC
London North Centre: LPC
London West: LPC
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton: LPC
Oxford: CPC
Perth-Wellington: CPC
Sarnia-Lambton: LPC
Barrie: CPC
Simcoe North: CPC
Simcoe-Grey: CPC
Wellington-Halton Hills: CPC
Windsor-Tecumseh: NDP
Windsor-West: NDP

Total for The Southwest: LPC 14, CPC 8, NDP 2

Total for Ontario: LPC 59, CPC 35, NDP 10

-------------------------

Rip away.

[Siege40]

Another thing: How do the steel people vote in hamilton?

This year, almost certainly NDP

They are usually Federally Liberal with the NDP close behind, but now that the Liberals have disgraced themselves the whole of the Hamilton districts will vote NDP.

Siege

[Siege40]

By how much do they (CPC) lead in Brampton West (My riding)?

Siege

[© tweed]

By how much do they (CPC) lead in Brampton West (My riding)?

Siege

Not by much, but I think Clement's national name recognition will carry him to victory.

[Siege40]

I was watching a CBC news report and they hit the campaign trail with Mr. Clement. Brampton has been a solid Liberal city for 10 years, really solid, winning by good clean majorities.

I don't know how much you know about Ontario politics, I hope this doesn't sound patronizing, but Clement was the Ontario health minister under Harris and Eves. Now, people on the left know what the Conservatives did in power, under Clement the Ontario healthcare system fell to pieces, he's also seen as a symbol of the Ontario Conservatives who are still hated for their treatment of teachers (education), nurses, and their management of the budget ($5.6 billion deficiet). Clement will lose, by a narrow margin I think, I believe there's a star Liberal canidate here. I'll check.

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quick point: although the steelworkers *will* vote NDP, I', not sure whether all three seats will. Not everyone in Hamilton is a steelworker... having said that the Grits are in serious trouble in Steel City.
HC is the most likely to go NDP, while Mountain is likely to be a good three way race.

[© tweed]

Al-

I have no doubts about Hamilton Centre.  It will go NDP.  East-Stoney Creek probably will...but I have a few doubts.  As you said, Hamilton Mountain is the LEAST likely, but I think the NDP will squeak one out there.

[© tweed]

I voted Dean in this poll but now would change my vote to Edwards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al-

I have no doubts about Hamilton Centre.  It will go NDP.  East-Stoney Creek probably will...but I have a few doubts.  As you said, Hamilton Mountain is the LEAST likely, but I think the NDP will squeak one out there.

If the election was *today* the Dippers would probably sweep all three Hamilton seats...
I'm working on my predictions now!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Key

NCF=No Clear Favourite
SF=Slight Favourite
M=Marginal
L=Leaning
S=Safe
RS=Rock Solid

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newfoundland & Labrador[/b]

Avalon: LPC RS (M is Crosbie runs for CPC)
Bonavista-Exploits: NCF
Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte: LPC M
Labrador: LPC RS
Random-Burin-St.George's: L SF
St.John's North: NCF
St.John's South: CPC M

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton-Canso: LPC S
Central Nova: CPC S
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour: NDP SF
Halifax: NDP S
Halifax West: NCF
Kings-Hants: NCF
North Nova: CPC RS
Sackville-Eastern Shore: NDP L
South Shore-St.Margaret's: NCF
Sydney-Victoria: NCF
West Nova: NCF

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prince Edward Island[/i]

Cardigan: NCF
Charlottetown: LPC L
Egmont: LPC S
Malpeque: LPC M

[© tweed]

NCF?  Be a man.  Make the pick.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Brunswick[/b]

Acadie-Bathurst: NDP S
Beauséjour: LPC S
Fredericton: NCF
Fundy: NCF
Madawaska-Restigouche: LPC M
Miramichi: LPC S
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: LPC RS
St.Croix-Belleisle: CPC RS
Saint John: NCF
Tobique-Mactaquac: CPC SF