2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hamilton-Stoney Creek is on the NDP Target/Covet list, while St Maurice-Champlain is on the BQ Target list (now that "the Little Guy" has finally retired)...

My guess is that the NDP will certainly pick up a minimum of 2 seats in the Praries (a bit of a no-brainer actually. Two CA/CPC seats in Sask were won by razor thin margins in 2000 and the CA/CPC has dropped a lot in the Praries since then) and quite possibily even more.
How many they get overall is a mystery though (and hinges on Ontario and BC).

It *looks* as though the BQ will pickup St Maurice-Champlain (from what I gather they have coveted it for years)... and will probably gain back all the seats they lost in the by-elections.
My cousin thinks that the BQ might form an alliance with the NDP, on the basis that there stance on certain aspects of domestic policy and there voters are very similer.

I don't see the CPC winning as I doubt they can win a majority, and neither the NDP or the BQ is likely to prop them up.

The Martin wing of the LPC seems to be attacking the "Old Liberals" (as in "Old Bolsheviks") and it *might* cause a split (ala Labour in the early 80's) in which case all bets are off.

[Gustaf]

My own opinion is the Bush admin is lost in a echo chamber convinced the WSJ editorial pages and the Weekly Standard reflect reality.

What is "reality"?  Is it not true corporate profits are at an all-time high?

An economy with the highest productivity in 50 years, the lowest inflation and interest rates in 40 years, and the highest corporate profits on record....is going to produce jobs.  The question of "when" depends on when the growth of productivity slows.

But that is a guessing game, and noone guessed that these levels of productity gains were sustainable this long.  

That IS the economic "reality", regardless of the political perception of the overall public.

I don't know about that, growth doesn't necessarily generate jobs. But I agree that unemplyment should go down when companies bounce back from the dip.

[Dave from Michigan]

Does anyone know any websites on canada government and how it works and some information on canadian politics in general because I can't seem to find any

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Try: www.polticalresources.net

[Dave from Michigan]

Thank you

[© tweed]

Try: www.polticalresources.net

The link isn't working

[WMS]

NM 1 Albuquerque
NM 2 New Mexico North
NM 3 New Mexico South

Nice descriptions, but you got two of them backwards: NM2 is New Mexico South and NM3 is New Mexico North. Of course, before the 2000 redistricting NM2 was more of a New Mexico Southeast and NM3 was more of a New Mexico Northwest. But NM1 is definitely Albuquerque!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My mistake. It's actually: www.politicalresources.net

[© tweed]

My mistake. It's actually: www.politicalresources.net

thanks

[NHPolitico]

Leading Indicators Rise in January 20 minutes ago

By EILEEN ALT POWELL, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK - A key economic forecasting gauge advanced a strong 0.5 percent in January, suggesting that the nation's economy will expand further in coming months.

The business-funded Conference Board said Thursday its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose to 115.0 last month following gains of 0.2 percent in December and 0.3 percent in November. Analysts had expected a rise of about 0.3 percent for January.

Ken Goldstein, the business group's economist, noted that the index has been gaining since last spring.

The rise points to "sustained economic growth, perhaps through the first half of this year," he said.

Still, Goldstein warned that there were factors that could create bumps for the economy later this year.

"Consumer confidence could falter if job and wage growth don't continue to strengthen. Business confidence could erode. The lack of pricing power could be a big problem," he said. "But while these risks are important, their probabilities are not very high."

Also Thursday, the Labor Department reported that the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week. That offered hope that companies may be feeling better about business conditions and are less inclined to hand out pink slips.

The department said that for the work week ending Feb. 14, new applications filed for jobless benefits plunged by a seasonally adjusted 24,000 to 344,000.

It marked the largest decline since the beginning of November and left claims at their lowest level since the week ending Jan. 24.

Wall Street responded positively to the economic news, as well as strong earnings in the technology sector. In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 40.82, or 0.4 percent, at 10,712.81. The Nasdaq composite index was up 6.57, or 0.3 percent, at 2,083.04.

The index of leading indicators is closely watched because it forecasts trends in the economy in the next three to six months. The index has a base of 100, set in 1996.

Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a trade group in Arlington, Va., said that the two things needed to boost the industrial sector, which was hard-hit in the recession, were coming back -- exports and investment in business equipment.

In addition, he noted, consumer spending should get a boost in coming months from tax refunds as well as job growth.

"I think we're building the base for a sustained recovery," he said.

The Manufacturers Alliance own survey, released Thursday, indicated that 21 of 27 industries reported new orders or production that was higher in the fourth quarter of 2003 than a year earlier. That was up from 14 industries in the third quarter and 10 in the second quarter, the group said.

The New York-based Conference Board said that five of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index contributed to January's gain: consumer expectations, stock prices, average weekly manufacturing hours, vendor performance and a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Four declined, while manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials was unchanged.

The Index of Coincident Indicators, which gauges current economic activity, rose 0.3 percent to 115.8 in January after showing no change in December.

The Index of Lagging Indicators was unchanged in January at 98.2 after dropping 0.4 percent in December.

[Canadian observer]

A new poll has been published, support for parties seemed to remain stable over the last week

From Ipsos-Reid

Federal voting intention in Canada
LPC 36%
CPC 27%
NDP 17%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 39%
CPC 36%
NDP 18%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 44%
LPC 30%
CPC 10%
NDP 9%

Ontario

LPC 46%
CPC 29%
NDP 18%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

CPC 31%
NDP 29%
LPC 29%

Alberta

CPC 47%
LPC 28%
NDP 18%

British Columbia

CPC 33%
LPC 26%
NDP 26%
Green Party 6%

[© tweed]

Okay...So the liberals aren't as bad of as I orginially thought.

the NDP has lost their lead in the plains...and everything else seems to be staying the same.  Thanks.

[Canadian observer]

The recent Ipsos-Reid poll also featured data on the CPC leadership contest.


Belinda Stronach


Stephen Harper


Tony Clement

The question on leadership vote intention was asked only among self-identified Conservative supporters.  The national results are not very accurate, given the fact that the leadership contest is going to be decided on a per riding basis, hence the regional breakdown may give a more precise (though far from being 99% accurate) picture of how the race is going so far.

From Ipsos-Reid

Candidates' support in Canada
Harper 46%
Stronach 26%
Clement 17%
Don't know/refused 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

Stronach 34%
Harper 25%
Clement 22%
DK/R 19%

Quebec

Stronach 44%
Harper 24%
Clement 16%
DK/R 17%

Ontario

Harper 36%
Stronach 26%
Clement 25%
DK/R 13%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

Harper 58%
Stronach 19%
Clement 10%
DK/R 14%

Alberta

Harper 66%
Stronach 26%
Clement 5%
DK/R 3%

British Columbia

Harper 63%
Stronach 16%
Clement 12%
DK/R 13%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Okay...So the liberals aren't as bad of as I orginially thought.

the NDP has lost their lead in the plains...and everything else seems to be staying the same.  Thanks.

All three parties are inside the margin of error for the Praries... which is normal (mind you NDP support is usually underestimated in Saskatchwan), and if those were the actual figures I would guess the NDP would win a plurality of Prarie seats.
One weird thing is the NDP's support in Alberta and BC... compare to this time last year and you'll see what I mean.
Martin would still end up with a minority government with those figures, but he would probably avoid the embarrassment of having to haggle with the BQ

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the CPC want to put Martin under pressure they should go with Stronach. If they want to let Martin off the hook, they will go with Harper...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Gas prices could badly hurt Bush

[Canadian observer]

If the CPC want to put Martin under pressure they should go with Stronach. If they want to let Martin off the hook, they will go with Harper...

A recent Ekos poll asked among Canadians (not just Conservative supporters) the possibility that they would vote for the Conservatives, based on who might win the leadership contest.

If Stronach wins, 45% of respondents will or would vote for the Conservatives.

If Harper becomes CPC leader, 42% of respondents will or would.

For Clement, the number is just at 36%.

The sample size is 1,020, and the MoE is at 3.1%.  This poll seems telling that whether Belinda or Stephen wins that wouldn't greatly influence the Conservative fortunes in terms of support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's weird... I would have thought that Harper being the ex-leader of the CA would hurt him a lot.

[Canadian observer]

The Ekos poll also queried on federal vote intentions.

Source: the Toronto Star

Federal voting intentions in Canada

LPC 42%
CPC 32%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%

Partial Regional Breakdown

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 40%
LPC 38%
NDP 15%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 36%
NDP 15%

Alberta

CPC 63%

British Columbia

LPC 44%
CPC 27%
NDP 15%

The only good news for the Libs is that they're at 42% ... That score runs counterintuitive based on another poll only done in Quebec, the Ekos poll's regional sub-sample sizes and other data the same poll featured.

==========

I don't know the precise Ekos poll's regional sub-sample sizes but I guess they were as follows :

Atlantic: n=­±100
Quebec: n=±250
Ontario: n=±350
Man & Sask: n=±100
Alberta: n=±100
BC:n=±100

Ekos is not the sole polling firm to use such small sub-sample sizes to make data on regional vote intentions.  All firms in Canada do.  However, I doubt the Liberals may be leading in BC, given the current scandal and other previous polls showing them trailing.

==========

Another poll published the same day in French Quebecer media showed the Liberals still stucked on the floor.

Federal vote intentions in Quebec
Polling Firm: CROP (Published in La Presse)
Sample size = 607     MoE ± 4%

Bloc Québécois 48%
LPC 32%
NDP 10%
CPC 9%

==========

On a last surprising note (or pleasing for Realpolitik ), the NDP has replaced the Liberals as the most popular second choice among voters.  We see why Layton keeps going onto Martin.

The last time Ekos published a poll the Liberals were at 56%...

=========

The sponsorship scandal, or Adscam as referred in some other Canadian media, is still on the headlines almost three weeks since the story outbreak.  In The National on CBC and Le Téléjournal on Radio-Canada one or two reports among the three first reports aired are generally on matters related to the scandal.


Myriam Bédard, from Quebec City, won a bronze medal in Albertville (1992) and two gold in Lillehammer (1994) in the biathlon

An olympic gold medallist, Myriam Bédard, is now involved in the scandal.  She worked for the VIA rail crown corporation and recently told media about overbilling she witnessed.  Last Friday after she spoke out Jean Pelletier, Chairman of VIA, went out by insulting her in publicly.  He considered Bédard as a kind of pitiful lonely single woman with children.  Problem is she's not single and the original Pelletier's remarks in French were very insulting.  Pelletier had now been fired today at noon.


Former PM Jean Chrétien (right) with Jean Pelletier (left).  Pelletier was Mayor of Quebec City in the 1980's.

[Canadian observer]

That's weird... I would have thought that Harper being the ex-leader of the CA would hurt him a lot.

Yeah that's quite surprising.  Weirder is that a year ago we were talking about a record majority for Martin ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's weird... I would have thought that Harper being the ex-leader of the CA would hurt him a lot.

Yeah that's quite surprising.  Weirder is that a year ago we were talking about a record majority for Martin ...

As Harold Wilson said: "A week is a long time in politics"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Ekos poll also queried on federal vote intentions.

Source: the Toronto Star

Federal voting intentions in Canada

LPC 42%
CPC 32%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%

Partial Regional Breakdown

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 40%
LPC 38%
NDP 15%

NDP on 15% in Quebec??

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Look on the bright side: even if Martin is reduced to minority status he probably won't have to humiliate himself by striking a deal with the BQ

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The Liberals are also hurt in BC by the word "Liberal". Martin needs to distance himself from Gordon Campbell (who's numbers have been dropping like a stone recently: the BCLibs now trial the BCNDP. And that's assuming the Greenies don't tactical vote)

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Looks like the Bloc have re-asserted themselves. Amazing how much damage a scandal can do really.

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When was that?

[Canadian observer]

NDP on 15% in Quebec??

That may be caused by the random sample.  It might be just luck for the NDP in Quebec.  Maybe Ekos called more people than usual in Mercier, QC.

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Of course, the better is the BQ not to have the balance of power.  Unless they would surely get the opportunity to mess around.

A minority Liberal government would be a big problem for Martin.  He wouldn't control the parliamentary agenda completely... And couldn't easily end parliamentary inquiries into the recent sponsorship scandal that provide a very bad press to the party.

But for Martin, the biggest fallout from the possibility of obtaining a minority government after the election would be that he didn't live up to the expectations he possibly unintentionally let go (i.e., that he would get another majority government for the LPC and be a powerful campaigner).  That would surely make his political position quite fragile.  These unfulfilled expectations constitute a form of humiliation Martin will not be able to avoid if he's ever to get in minority territory.

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The same thesis is currently expressed in some Quebecer media.  The provincial Charest's governement is currently mired in protests over his plan to shake up the governmental structures and services.  BQ's strategists are going to make linking between the federal and provincial Liberals during the next campaign.  Their message would be "You don't like what the QLP is presently doing, don't vote for the federal Liberals".  For the federal Liberals, that would be a return of fortunes from the 2000 federal election.  During the 2000 campaign, the former PQ provincial government was going on with his plans on forced municipal mergers, which were opposed by many.  The federal Libs did linking by spreading the message that voting for them and not for the BQ was the best way to show dissatisfaction at the PQ's policies.  In 2000, the federal Liberals got the best score in terms of seats won since 1984: 37 on 75

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Still amazing is the way Martin handled the affair... he did very badly... to the point I doubt if he's going to stand throughout a campaign.  His government had the Auditor General report on the Sponsorship program since November.  If you do the math, Martin's team had two months to prepare a communication strategy that would avoid some fallout from the damning report.

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According to some newspaper articles I read, the last Ekos poll was done in January.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That may be caused by the random sample.  It might be just luck for the NDP in Quebec.  Maybe Ekos called more people than usual in Mercier, QC.

I'd guessed something like that. 10% seems (just about) plausible... 15% seems waaay to high

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Ah. Who'd be most likely to try to topple him?
BTW the NDP have given Copps the finger

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I'm sure the BQ will appreciate the irony of that.
"What goes around, comes around"

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2 months? And he did *nothing*
I had always assumed he was a canny operater...

[Canadian observer]

2 months? And he did *nothing*
I had always assumed he was a canny operater...

Martin's team may have done "nothing" in the sense they didn't expect the AG report to create such public outrage and thought that would be in the headlines for just 3 days at worst. Worst for them, it's still in the news after 3 weeks.

That can be understood by the fact Liberals escaped wounds over many controversies since 1993: Military helicopters broken contracts; cost overrun of the federal guns registry; the one-billion dollar lost in the HRDC boondoggle; and others yet to be discovered.  Old habits die hard.

I too thought Martin and his team to be canny operators, but now after the outbreak of this scandal, I maintain doubts over their professional skills in keeping power.  If they're not able to be prepared for an event (i.e., the adscam) that would have been predicted two months before, how will they act like while facing unpredictable events during a campaign?

A column in an English Canadian newspaper, which I unfortunately don't remember the name of, reminded an affair that happened in BC last december and went quickly forgotten because of the ascent of Martin's government.  In Vancouver, in december, the RCMP sized documents in federal Liberal offices on allegation of wrongdoing related to membership selling.  The people involved have been Martin's organizers during his leadership campaign.  There are rumours the story might come back this month.  The RCMP inquiry may have found more than membership selling irregularities: money laundering.  If the rumours stand, Martin may have a harder time at distancing himself from the affair.  For many Canadians the question would be "If he's not able to know anything while he was Finance Minister, why would he not be able to know anything while he was campaigning for leadership?"