2004 Democratic Primary

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The problem is, poltical perception becomes reality. As for overall corporate profits, they still are under their 1997 peak.

Corporate profits with inventory
   valuation and capital consumption
   adjustments............................. $845.3B(1997)

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2000/gdp499f.htm

Corporate profits with inventory
   valuation and capital consumption
   adjustments............................. $927.1B(2003Q1)    $1,022.8B(2003Q2)    $1,124.2B (2003Q3)

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2003/gdp303f.htm

[angus]

Those are adjusted for inflation (all in 1997 dollars?).  Is the 845.3 billion a third quarter number?  What is the disagreement here?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Those are adjusted for inflation (all in 1997 dollars?).

I'll double check that.  But the 1997 number came from a report published in 2000.  So at the most, it only needs to be adjusted for inflation from 2000 to 2003, during which inflation was at a 40 year low.

But I'll see if I can get them all in the same dollars.

---

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It is the total number for 1997 and the quarterally numbers from 2003 projected annually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It looks as though Martin had been complacent...
I knew that Chretien had dodged a hellofalot of scandels over the years (I remember something about a hotel), and it's strange that Martin doesn't seem to be able to do the same.

[Canadian observer]

It looks as though Martin had been complacent...
I knew that Chretien had dodged a hellofalot of scandels over the years (I remember something about a hotel), and it's strange that Martin doesn't seem to be able to do the same.

Still, Martin doesn't seem able to deviate all the media attention out from the sponsorship scandal.  I've watched Le Midi on Radio-Canada (kind of CBC Noon News in French) and believe me the six first reports read by the news anchor were on the scandal.  Everytime Martin is somewhere (wandering around) for his pre-election tour, he's constantly questioned over the affairs and how Martin responds: by giving lenghty answers on how he's acting to clean up government.  Of course that's laudable from him; such behaviour is far from what Chretien used to do.  However, he's still giving the impression to the general public that the scandal is important.

Tonight (Eastern Canadian Time) East-Hamilton citizens will be settled on who between Tony Valeri and Sheila Copps will get the Liberal nomination.  I don't know who will win and whoever wins bring about unintended consequences.  If Valeri wins, that'll be seen as a martydom of Copps (and Copps is hinting that she might run as a Liberal independent (or NDP) candidate in the case she loses); and if Copps wins, it'll be a humiliation for Valeri, who's a strong supporter of Martin and Minister for Transport.  Some newspapers told police officers are on duty in case there's a riot after the results are known...


Tony Valeri, Martin cabinet member


Sheila Copps, Former Deputy Prime Minister

[© tweed]

Isn't copps running for the NDP nomination somewhere?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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[Canadian observer]

Isn't copps running for the NDP nomination somewhere?

There were rumours Copps might run for the NDP nomination.  However, there may be more chances she runs as a "Liberal independent".  She hasn't said her last word (or concede her last sword ? ... )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Copp's will probably run as an Independent Liberal (the NDP were not happy about her staying in the Liberal primary), which could result in the NDP (who have re-bounded in Eastern Hamilton of late) coming up the middle. (Yes, I said the middle)

[Canadian observer]

Copp's will probably run as an Independent Liberal (the NDP were not happy about her staying in the Liberal primary), which could result in the NDP (who have re-bounded in Eastern Hamilton of late) coming up the middle. (Yes, I said the middle)

The "coming up the middle" seems less and less surprising to me.  Some recent polls put the NDP at around 20% in Ontario, which is pretty high and may prevent the reelection of many Liberals if Layton succeed to maintain or enhance such support.

Copps' defeat seems to create crazy rumours, one tells that she might try to run in another Liberal nomination contest in Quebec !!!

[© tweed]

Isn't copps running for the NDP nomination somewhere?

There were rumours Copps might run for the NDP nomination.  However, there may be more chances she runs as a "Liberal independent".  She hasn't said her last word (or concede her last sword ? ... )

Thanks

[Canadian observer]

Another Ipsos-Reid poll has been published, the Liberals' recovery seems to be taking a long time.  This poll has the largest sample size among the '04 Ipsos polls to date (n=2111 individuals, MoE 2.1%)

From Ipsos-Reid

Federal voting intention in Canada
LPC 38%
CPC 26%
NDP 17%
BQ 12%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 49%
CPC 31%
NDP 17%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 49%
LPC 31%
NDP 8%
CPC 6%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 31%
NDP 16%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

LPC 36%
NDP 31%
CPC 24%

Alberta

CPC 57%
LPC 24%
NDP 16%

British Columbia

LPC 33%
NDP 29%
CPC 27%
Green Party 10%

[Siege40]

I think the Federal election really depends on two key factors when and who. The when being when the election is called. If Martin calls it in early May like we're all being led to believe than he stands to lose a lot, the scandal will be fresh in the minds of Canadians, maybe fading but the Con.s and NDP won't let us forget.

The next important detail is who the Con.s elect as their leader. If they pick Harper, they'll win in the West, the same or as much, maybe more than last time. They will gain ground in Ontario but no further than the Ottawa River. If the pick Stronach, (dear god no!) they'll win a lot of Quebec, parts of Ontario and the West and pieces of the Maritimes. If Clement I think they'll win all over the place, Quebec, Ontario, the West, and the Maritimes, the whole lot.

Regardless the Liberals will get a government, likely a minority, but who knows.

Siege40

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is no way that the CPC will do as well out west as the CA did last time round.

[Siege40]

I agree, but by 2008 the Conservatives will be a force to be reckoned with. Hopefully so will the NDP. If you think that the Canadian people are itchy after 11 years or Liberal rule, wait until 15.

Siege40

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah... one of the most interesting trends in Ontario recently has been the NDP in Northern Ontario (Hampton was re-elected with 60% I recall...)

[Siege40]

Is this a trend down or up? Northern Ontario has been for a long time NDP territory. The Election in October 2003 was a little bit of a fluke. Ontarians desperate to rid themselves of the Progressive Conservatives, voted Liberal, even members of the NDP, they called it strategic voting. I despised it, it cost the NDP official party status due to the shift, the Liberals one quite handily, 70 seats of 103. Conservatives got 26 or 25. NDP got 7 or 8.

But as someone once told me, Governors mean nothing in the Federal elections, the same nearly applies in Canada. If the provincials are doing a good job it may convince some, and if they're doing a bad job it has the opposite effect. Case in point that provincial elections don't have great effect is the West. Right now there's 2 or 3 NDP governments out there, but they usually vote Alliance, now Conservative. Two completely different parties ideologically.

Siege40

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trend is up. In 1999 Hampton won with about 45% (can't remember the exact figure), in 2003 he won with 60%
In 2003 the NDP's vote went up for the first time since 1992, but they suffered a net loss of seats, mainly because of a lame-duck incumbent in Sault-Ste-Marie, a retirement in Hamilton West (where the NDP's vote went up, but the Tories collapsed=Liberal gain), and because they polled best in Liberal held seats.

[Actually, the one result in 2003 that suprised me was Oshawa. I had assumed that:
a) the NDP were forever dead in Oshawa
b) it would be a close fight between the Liberals and the Tory incumbent.
In the event, the Tory incumbent was re-elected by a small margin... over the NDP's candidate (the Liberal came third).
I was glad that I didn't put money on a horse that day...]

However the trend is likely to be even more visible in the federal election, as the federal Liberals are weaker in Northern Ontario than the Ontario Liberals (look at the two Thunder Bay seats)

The NDP have always been a predominantly western party, and run Saskatchwan and Manitoba (2 of there strongest provinces federally).

[Siege40]

I think the NDP has a lot to gain in the next election, their public approval went up something like 10% in the provincial election (yay!). I think they've (Liberals and Conservatives) left the door wide open in Ontario for a great NDP flood. Harper is seen as the westerner, Stronach is well... not the best choice, the Liberals have been scandaled, again. The NDP have a clean slate and are continuing to grow in the polls. In fact, the Conservatives have slipped in the polls recently, as have the Liberals, while the NDP have had continuous growth. By the May election they could reach 25%. I'm biased though.

Siege40

[Canadian observer]

IBy the May election they could reach 25%. I'm biased though.

... Maybe a little , but you may nevertheless be right on an NDP surge in Ontario.  At 20-25%, the NDP might prevent the re-election of many federal Liberals and let the conservatives run in the middle.  By the simple merger of the Canadian Alliance and the old-Conservatives, the CPC can expect to take at minimum 20 ridings in Ontario, these ridings are in the South and Southwest rural areas, that historically always voted Conservative before the schism of '93.

The NDP could also enquiquiner (bother) the Liberal campaign in Toronto by forcing the LPC to spend more time and energy in a region they've taken for granted since '93.  The original plan of Paul Martin (i.e., dropping the writ in early-April for election in May) is in shambles because of the Sponsorship scandal.  Right now, the LPC can expect no growth in Quebec and the West and they're now left with Ontario, where the next federal election is going to be the most competitive since 1988, that surely scares the hell out of many Liberal incumbent who haven't got the habit of working hard to campaign because of the division of the right the low support that was given for the NDP.

[Siege40]

Regardless of who the Conservatives pick as leader, there's going to be a lot of FORMER Liberal MPs down at the Unemployment election.

I do believe the a May election could still work with the Liberals still remaining in power. The longer they stall the lower their chances get. Soon as we get to June their odds get worse. Or so I think.

Siege40

[minionofmidas]

Doesn't Martin still have bags of time till he has to call an election. Like, till late 2005?
Oh, and, Siege, I think Michigan was a better fit than South Carolina.

[Siege40]

I think it's mid-2005 but you have to look at it from the point of view of Canadians. Those who aren't big Liberal fans see this as a continuing term left over from Jean Chretien. So they see them being in power since 1993. That's a LONG time in the political sense. People don't want to drag this out, we want an election, soon, cause we're tiring of the Liberals. If Pauly boy decides to wait to 2005 it'll seem like he's dragging it out for a bigger win, or more specifically a majority government.

My opinion is the longer they keep waiting to more frustated Canadians will become. 11 years is a long time, we don't want to wait 12. Besides if the election is called earlier it gives an advantage to the Liberals. The Conservative party leader won't have time to solidify power and to concentrate on working out the kinks before the election. The longer they wait the stronger the Conservatives, and specifically the NDP become.

Also yes, Michigan is the better choice, but I was asked by the people on the Fantasy Election boards to move to a Southeastern state, because of the lack of people down there.

Siege40

[Canadian observer]

Martin can wait to drop the writ until September 2005.  However waiting until next year brings along many risks for the Martin government:

1) 3 partial elections must be held in the coming month.  One should be held in St-Maurice-Champlain, Qc, the former riding of Jean Chrétien, former PM.  Liberal organizers expect to lose the seat from the Bloc Québécois.  Another election should be held in Ottawa Centre, On, where the NDP candidate is Ed Broadbent, former NDP leader (1974-1989).  This might be a win for the NDP if Ottawa-Centre is at play in a partial election.  I don't remember where's the last partial election but what's certain is that losses in partial elections will erase the momentum Martin was maintaining since December.

2) The other risk to which Martin will expose his government is related to the inquiries the government established on the issues regarding the sponsorship scandal and the Arar affair.  Those inquiries will run full steam in the fall and Martin will have to make plans to avoid the fallout from the findings the investigations will gather.  For your information, Maher Arar is a Syrian-born Canadian who while transfering in New York was arrested by US authorities and sent in Syria for interrogation (where he was tortured), even though Arar is a Canadian citizen.  He's finally back, but this affair raised questions on Canada's security policies.  Arar's wife is going to be NDP candidate in Ottawa South, On.

3) Another risk concerns the sponsorship scandal.  The affair seems more and more unstopable as new stories are uncovered.  This week, Allan Cutler, a high-ranking public servant testified on the widespread non-respect for administrative rules regarding the awarding of contracts.  His testimony points to Alfonso Gagliano, the former Public Work minister at the center of the scandal, and Prime Minister Office aides, as the men who pulled the strings in the now infamous sponsorship program that squandered 200 million dollars.  Not related to the scandal are 160 million lost at the Defence department in contract bids and 55 million the government was preparing to give to the rich Irving family of New Brunswick in shipbuilding projects.

4) At last, by waiting until fall '04 or the year 2005, Martin may give ample time for the opposition parties to be prepared.

[Siege40]

Well put. At the current time the Liberals are guarenteed to win a minority, if they put it off they could lose it all.

Siege40