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Author Topic: 2004 Democratic Primary  (Read 119549 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: October 28, 2003, 03:43:21 pm »

With the caucuses and primaries about to kick off in a little over two months, whom do you support for the Democratic party's Presidential Nomination and why?  In many states, independents and even Republicans may vote in the democratic primaries.  (sorry, only eight options are available in this poll)

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Dave Leip
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2003, 06:08:28 pm »

I'm curious to know how wide your web browsers are when you visit the site.  I have kept the layout rather narrow to accomodate the 640 x 480 monitor resolution.  However, a wider format provides more information in a cleaner table layout.  Feedback Welcome.

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Peter
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2003, 09:04:22 pm »
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It is likely that within 17 hours of this post, the Conservative leadership may be vacant.  But who do you think should lead the party?
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2003, 12:07:46 am »
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Except Hague, I don't know any of the candidates.  Would you provide a short bio of them :-)
« Last Edit: October 29, 2003, 12:08:09 am by Canadian observer »Logged

 
Sibboleth
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2003, 05:49:31 am »
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Here's what the Guardian says:

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/page/0,9067,823067,00.html
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2003, 06:03:33 am »
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Naturally as I'm a Labour supporter, I'm delighted that the Tories have decided to rip themselves into tiny little pieces in front of the Media.
It's a shame that IDS looks to be on the way out, as he was a great electoral asset for us.
If it's Howard or Davis I'm going to have so much fun!

The following possible candidates are on the LibDems "decapitation list":

Michael Howard
David Davis
Oliver Letwin
Theresa May

Wonderfull!
Of course IDS could still suvive the Vote.
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2003, 06:06:23 am »
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I'm re-starting some of the discussions from the old forum.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2003, 06:06:59 am »
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I'm re-starting some of the discussions from the old forum.
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2003, 06:07:39 am »
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I'm re-starting some of the discussions from the old forum.
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2003, 06:12:37 am »
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I thought I'd start this again over here.
The Districts are listed by Name and by Number.

PENNSYLVANIA
01. Philadelphia South=Robert Brady D
02. Philadelphia North=Chaka Fattah D
03. Erie-Butler=Philip English R
04. Allegheny=Melissa Hart R
05. Susquehanna West=John Peterson R
06. Chester-Berks=Jim Gerlach R
07. Chester=Curt Weldon R
08. Bucks=Jim Greenwood R
09. Tuscarora=Bill Shuster R
10. Susquehanna East=Donald Sherwood R
11. Wilkes-Barr=Paul Kanjorski D
12. Johnstown=John Murtha D
13. Philadelphia-Mifflin=Joseph Hoeffel D
14. Pittsburgh=Micheal Doyle D
15. Allentown=Patrick Toomey R
16. West Chester=Joseph Pitts R
17. Harrisburg=Tim Holden D
18. Westmoreland=Tim Murphey R
19. Gettysburg=Todd Platts R

ILLINOIS
01. Chicago-Southside=Bobby Rush D
02. Chicago Heights=Jesse Jackson Jr D
03. Chicago West=William Lipinski D
04. Chicago-Cicero=Luis Gutierrez D
05. Chicago-Northside=Rahm Emanuel D
06. DuPage=Henry Hyde R
07. Chicago Central=Danny Davis D/DSA
08. McHenry-Lake=Phillip Crane R
09. Chicago Northside=Janice Schakowsky D
10. North Chicago=Mark Steven Kirk R
11. Joliet=Gerald Weller R
12. East St Louis and the Valleys=Jerry Costello D
13. Will-DuPage=Judy Biggert R
14. Batavia-Henry=Dennis Hastert R*
15. Wabash=Timothy Johnson R
16. Rockford=Donald Manzullo R
17. Springfield-Moline=Lane Evans D
18. Springfield-Peoria-Illinois River=Ray Lahood R
19. Kaskakia-Lincon=John Shimkus R

GEORGIA
01. Okefenokee-Atlantic=Jack Kingston R
02. Cherokee and Seminole=Sanford Bishop D
03. Jefferson Long=Jim Marshall D
04. Stone Mountain=Denise Majette D
05. Atlanta=John Lewis D
06. Fulton-Cobb=Johnny Isakson R
07. Dahlonega=John Linder R
08. Peachtree=Michael Collins R
09. Egmont=Charles Norwood R
10. John Ross=Nathen Deal R
11. Berry=Phil Gingrey R
12. Savannah=Max Burns R
13. Luther King=David Scott D
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2003, 07:12:42 am »
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I would predict a narrow Democrat Victory.

Alaska- Rep
Hawaii- Dem
Washington- Dem
Oregon- Dem
California- Dem
Nevada- Dem (Gain from Rep)
Idaho- Dem (only joking!) Rep
Arizona- Rep
New Mexico- Dem
Utah- Rep
Montana- Rep
Wyoming- Rep
Colorado- Rep
North Dakota- Rep
South Dakota- Rep
Nebraska- Rep
Kansas- Rep
Oklahoma- Rep
Texas- Rep
Minnesota- Dem
Wisconsin- Dem
Iowa- Dem
Illinois- Dem
Missouri- Rep
Arkansas- Dem (Gain from Rep)
Louisiana- Dem (Gain from Rep)
Michigan- Dem
Indiana- Rep
Ohio- Rep
Kentucky- Rep
Tennesee- Rep
Mississippi- Rep
Alabama- Rep
Georgia- Rep
Florida- Dem (Gain from Rep)
South Carolina- Rep
North Carolina- Rep
Virginia- Rep
West Virginia- Dem (Gain from Rep)
Maryland- Dem
Pennsylvania- Rep (Gain from Dem)
Delaware- Dem
New York- Dem
Connecticut- Dem
New Jersey- Dem
Vermont- Dem
New Hampshire- Dem (Gain from Rep)
RI- Dem
Massachusetts- Dem
Maine- Dem
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I live in the UK and regard myself as a socially liberal, economic centrist. I vote for the British Labour party and support the Canadian NDP and US Democratic parties.


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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2003, 07:30:56 am »
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If Davis, Howard, Redwood, Widdecombe or Ancram wins, look forward to another Labour Landslide. In fact if Widdecombe wins look foward to the Tories winning just 2 seats, Huntingdon and Chelsea!!
If Ken Clarke, Portillo or Oliver Letwin wins Labour will be in serious trouble. Clarke especially is extremely popular with non-tories (therefore exactly the sort of leader they need) and was an excellent chancellor in the 90's. Portillo is very cultured, charismatic and popular with younger voters. Letwin is also a strong speaker and definately leader material. Unfortunately, non of these is popular amongst Tory's, therefore have no chance of being picked. I would go for Howard and another substantial victory for Labour in 2005/06.
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I live in the UK and regard myself as a socially liberal, economic centrist. I vote for the British Labour party and support the Canadian NDP and US Democratic parties.


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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2003, 07:35:37 am »
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Hopefully the Alliance will crash and burn! I'm sure they'll cling on in redneck rural Alberta however!
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Peter
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2003, 12:39:21 pm »
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Certainly Clarke, Portillo or Letwin would be formidable foes to the Labour party. Letwin nots running and hes said so, also I think his time may well be in 6 or 7 years..

If Howard wins, expect Blair to call the General election early, maybe next May? Redwood simply isnt in the running and i have heard nothing about him from friends within the party. David Davies may be right wing, but he is certainly charismatic, dont right him off so eagerly. Michael Ancram could never be leader hes too much of a toff. Ann Widdecombe, whilst I love her honesty, is not representative of the party enough to successfully unite them.

If Portillo and Clarke dont run, expect the left wing candidate to be Tim Yeo or David Willetts, although I think the latter is a massive longshot. It is more likely Ken will run with an endorsement from Portillo, who would then serve in the Cabinet. Theresa May isnt exactly up to it, somebody (i cant remember who) was quoted as saying that she wouldnt have been a junior minister in the Thatcher years.

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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2003, 01:02:22 pm »
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Who will be Blair's successor?
To be honest I think the outlook for Labour after Tony Blair is rather bleak.
Gordon Brown or Peter Hain are probably about the best. Jack Straw has too much of a silly name  to ever be elected, Geoff Hoon is now very unpopular over the Iraq war, Blunkett is too right wing, Clair Short is too left wing and John Prescott is a complete liability! No-one really stands out to me.
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I live in the UK and regard myself as a socially liberal, economic centrist. I vote for the British Labour party and support the Canadian NDP and US Democratic parties.


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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2003, 01:07:36 pm »
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Davis is actually MP for my constituency of Haltemprice! Yes, the seat of the infamous fictional right-wing MP Alan B'stard!
I can tell you he isn't popular in my area, in fact his majority was slashed to ribbons in 2001 from over 7,000 to about 1,500. Hopefully the Lib Dems will unseat Davis at the next election if we can persuade enough Labour voters to switch.
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2003, 01:20:45 pm »
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Brown is by far the most popular politician in the U.K at the moment.
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2003, 01:26:40 pm »
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IDS might still pull it off you know...
My ideal result would be IDS winning by about 2 votes.
Result: A leader with no authority, who is also spitefull and vindictive, thus leading to expulsions and splinter groups.

But I'm not making a prediction. Ah no...You're not foolin' me...
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2003, 02:23:50 pm »
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From the Guardian website:

Quote
LATEST NEWS: IDS loses confidence vote 90 to 75, sparking a Conservative leadership battle. More details soon...
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2003, 04:18:43 pm »
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English, your M.P(Davis) has pulled out in favour of Howard, as have Letwin, Fox and Dorrell.

Make way for a "Stop Howard" campaign...
BBC political correspondent says that Labour probably relish the possiblity of Howard as he has a hell of a lot of baggage.

The Guardian has profiled two new possibles:

Quote
Tim Yeo
On the left, libertarian, wing of the party, Mr Yeo stands to pick up votes that might have gone to Kenneth Clarke and Michael Portillo, who are both thought unlikely to stand. A doctor's son, he had a career in the City and the charity world before winning safe Suffolk South in 1983. An environment minister in John Major's government he came under fire during the backlash over "back to basics" and resigned. Yeo wants to stand as a unity candidate. Not a brilliant orator but good at probing the government with searching questions

John Redwood
Famously "Vulcan" rightwinger and former Thatcher thinktank head, he surprised MPs when he left his wife this year. Twice defeated for leader, his media appearances have aroused suspicion that he may have one last try as the most ideological rightwinger on offer. A loner, he was dropped by William Hague and stays dropped. Politically passionate, his brains and energy need to be used. But how? Colleagues predict "he'll only get two votes".
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2003, 04:29:32 pm »
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Go Michael Go!
An unreconstructed thatcherite who opposes the minimum wage.
Woo Hoo! It's a Labour/Liberal dream come true!

He's also a HUGE Hypocrite:
For all his extremist anti-asylum rhetoric, he is actually the son of a Romanian refugee and his real name is Michael Hecht.

Go Michael Go!
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2003, 04:39:11 pm »
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Yeo seems to have pulled out.
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2003, 06:25:54 pm »
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Dont bet against the house, somebody on the liberal wing of the party will run, even if as a protest candidate. Ken Clarke is presently uncontactable, I havent heard for sure that Yeo is pulling out, and Redwood is sly as a fox.

There is always opportunity for the best laid plans to go awry and dont forget Murphy's Law.

Pete
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2003, 06:31:50 pm »
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Peter Hain isnt exactly viable as he negoitiated the European Constitution, good job their Peter.

This country would never elect David Blunkett and you would have to be blind not to see it.

Prescott or Short would be a disaster for this country, perhaps worse than Michael Howard.

Jack Straw doesnt exactly have any good credentials after Iraq, neither does Geoff Hoon who will probably lose his job when Hutton reports.

A couple of names I often heard banded around are Yvette Cooper and personally I think Alan Milburn will be back.

Still, Gordon Brown has done wonders with the economy considering global trends, I am a natural Conservative voter, but I won't vote Tory unless they give me a radical social agenda that stops living in the last century. Blair/Brown still looks to be the most attractive ticket around.
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2003, 07:35:14 pm »
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In the most recent debate (FOX), Dean made the argument against his nomination very clear when he said he isn't afraid to take a stance that 70% of the country doesn't agree with. The number one job of the major nominees is to get a plurality of votes and a majority of electoral votes.

Kerry, Gephardt, and Clark on the other hand have positioned themselves in a place where they can win moderates and be truly competitive with Bush. Lieberman is too far right to appease the Dem primary voters and Edwards is just too far down in the polls.
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