2004 Democratic Primary
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Author Topic: 2004 Democratic Primary  (Read 438317 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1375 on: June 20, 2004, 07:16:31 AM »

And stunned I may yet be... SES trackers show that the momentum *may* be slipping away from Harper.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1376 on: June 20, 2004, 09:29:34 AM »

Tell me again: What date is the election?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1377 on: June 20, 2004, 10:31:10 AM »

Tell me again: What date is the election?

28th June
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Siege40
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« Reply #1378 on: June 21, 2004, 09:14:12 AM »

The debate and all the recent media attention on Harper is slowing his train of good luck down, in fact a poll showed the Liberals went up a percent or two above the Conservatives. This will be a nail-biter of an election.

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Siege40
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« Reply #1379 on: June 22, 2004, 02:39:34 PM »

What would the Governor General due in the event of a tie between Liberals and Conservatives?

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Siege40
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« Reply #1380 on: June 22, 2004, 05:09:01 PM »

LOL! More likely it'll come down to who could make a more stable government, and I think the Liberals might win in that case.

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1381 on: June 22, 2004, 08:18:14 PM »

Libs up by 6%!
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Siege40
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« Reply #1382 on: June 23, 2004, 09:05:44 AM »


Oh, thank Dave, for he must be smiling down upon Canada. Wink

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Siege40
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« Reply #1383 on: June 23, 2004, 09:42:22 AM »

I made a prediction map, it's not really based on polls and it isn't incredibly good, but I think you get the gist of it.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1384 on: June 23, 2004, 11:51:41 AM »

At last! A proper poll from BC! No more of those damn regional breakdowns! Cheesy

Enjoy: http://www.mustelgroup.com/062104.htm

CPC 36%
NDP 28%
LPC 26%
GPC   7%
Oth    3%

MoE:
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1385 on: June 23, 2004, 04:56:07 PM »

Nobody has yet answered my question as to how is it determined which party gets to form a minority goverment if no party wins a majority of seats in the House of Commons.   If the Liberals won more seats then the Conservatives but the Bloc Quebecois plus the Conservatives won a majority of seats and were willing to form a coalition, could/would the two parties form a government together even if they had not been part of any arguable coalition before the election, or would the resulting governent have to include the Liberals?  If someone could answer this question for me I would appreciate it.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1386 on: June 24, 2004, 06:46:18 AM »

Nobody has yet answered my question as to how is it determined which party gets to form a minority goverment if no party wins a majority of seats in the House of Commons.   If the Liberals won more seats then the Conservatives but the Bloc Quebecois plus the Conservatives won a majority of seats and were willing to form a coalition, could/would the two parties form a government together even if they had not been part of any arguable coalition before the election, or would the resulting governent have to include the Liberals?  If someone could answer this question for me I would appreciate it.

The PM has to have the support of the majority of the House of Commons... Minority governments used to be quite common in Canada (LB Pearson, Clark etc) but there hasn't been one for 24 years.
In the 1985 Ontario election, the PC's won a plurality of seats (just ahead of the Liberals) but not a majority.
The Liberals formed a coalition with the NDP. I'm not sure whether this is legal federally though.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1387 on: June 24, 2004, 09:13:58 AM »

The Bloc and the NDP refuse to work with the Conservatives, so no way will there be any coalition. More likely the Conservatives would with the moset seats (125 maybe) but no one would work with them and lead to a very unstable government in which the Opposition and not the Government rules. Keep in mind that the Bloc, Liberals and NDP are all left parties, so if the Cons. get power they'll have a hard time doing anything.

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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1388 on: June 24, 2004, 11:09:51 AM »


What is exactly is the BQ's positions on the issues that aren't Quebec-specific?   They are left-wing?
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Siege40
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« Reply #1389 on: June 24, 2004, 11:46:03 AM »

Left-wing seems about right, given that Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton were cozing up to each other during the debate quite nicely. I could smack Jack sometimes.

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1390 on: June 24, 2004, 06:45:00 PM »

The BQ is only right-wing on issues pertaining to Provincial Power.

I can't wait to turn on C-SPAN this monday...I assume they will the CBC feed.  They get the BBC feed for British elections.
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Trilobyte
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« Reply #1391 on: June 25, 2004, 12:39:01 AM »

Nobody has yet answered my question as to how is it determined which party gets to form a minority goverment if no party wins a majority of seats in the House of Commons.   If the Liberals won more seats then the Conservatives but the Bloc Quebecois plus the Conservatives won a majority of seats and were willing to form a coalition, could/would the two parties form a government together even if they had not been part of any arguable coalition before the election, or would the resulting governent have to include the Liberals?  If someone could answer this question for me I would appreciate it.

The incumbent party is given the first chance to form a government if no party wins a majority.

So lets assume we have a minority situation. Regardless of how many seats the Liberals win, Martin will be the first one asked to form a government. If Martin thinks he still has enough support to govern (i.e. if he thinks the Bloc or NDP will let his bills pass in parliament), then he can form a Liberal minority government.

So even if the Conservatives win more seats, they might never get to form government because the Liberals get their chance first.

If Martin can't find the support to govern (i.e. his bills likely won't pass, or he is likely to lose any vote of confidence brought forth by the Conservatives), then he would concede defeat and let the next biggest party (probably the Conservatives) attempt to form government.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1392 on: June 25, 2004, 08:16:53 AM »

The more I think about it, the more I think that Stephen Harper will become the next Joe Clark. Which would be terribly ironic given the Clark never supported Harper. The Bloc, NDP and Liberals won't support his budget, which will include a vote of confidence. The combined forces of the Opposition will be something like 200-250 members will crush the budget. Harper's government will fall. Martin if not replaced will not make the same mistakes he made this time. By March 2005 there will likely be a new election.

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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1393 on: June 25, 2004, 08:55:34 AM »

Thanks for answering my question, Trilobyte!  Thank you also Al, New Federalist, and Siege40.

In this case, the three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be that the Liberals and New Democrats receiving a combined majority of seets (if the Grits continue their recovery and there is effective tactical voting among supporters of both parties), the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (but not the Liberals and the NDP) receiving a combined majority of seets (which seems quite likely now) and the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc (but no two of those parties) receiving a combined majority of seats (if the Grits get really hammered).  Between these three possibilities is the prospect of independent MPs holding the ballance of power (between the Liberals and NDP on the one hand and the opposition on the other or between the Liberals and BQ on the one hand v. the opposition on the other).  At this point, it doesn't seem likely that any party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but you never know.  Wouldn't it be something if a bunce of voters who disliked Martin because of the scandal, thought Harper was too extreme and either lived outside of Quebec or opposed soveriegnty for Quebec (and who may have been supporting the BQ as a protest against Martin) suddenly shifted their support to the NDP, resulting in an NDP majority in the House of Commons?  I know there's not much chance of that happening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1394 on: June 25, 2004, 09:15:35 AM »

Environics have released a poll showing a dead heat... however it was done between the 17th and 22nd of June. Before the recent CPC's slur against the LPC and NDP over Child Porn (see: http://www.vancouverscrum.blogspot.com) which appears to have backfired on them.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1395 on: June 25, 2004, 12:57:34 PM »

Thanks for answering my question, Trilobyte!  Thank you also Al, New Federalist, and Siege40.

In this case, the three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be that the Liberals and New Democrats receiving a combined majority of seets (if the Grits continue their recovery and there is effective tactical voting among supporters of both parties), the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (but not the Liberals and the NDP) receiving a combined majority of seets (which seems quite likely now) and the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc (but no two of those parties) receiving a combined majority of seats (if the Grits get really hammered).  Between these three possibilities is the prospect of independent MPs holding the ballance of power (between the Liberals and NDP on the one hand and the opposition on the other or between the Liberals and BQ on the one hand v. the opposition on the other).  At this point, it doesn't seem likely that any party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but you never know.  Wouldn't it be something if a bunce of voters who disliked Martin because of the scandal, thought Harper was too extreme and either lived outside of Quebec or opposed soveriegnty for Quebec (and who may have been supporting the BQ as a protest against Martin) suddenly shifted their support to the NDP, resulting in an NDP majority in the House of Commons?  I know there's not much chance of that happening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

Interesting idea. However unlikely. My theory is that if the NDP get some serious gains, as everyone has been suggesting, their 25+ seats then the NDP could begin to grow as a realistic alternative. I have a feeling that the Golden Horseshoe will begin to go Orange. The Liberals will spread to the Suburbs and the Conservatives will take Rural Ontario. That's what I predict for Ontario.

The West will start to look like the American west, a Blue Strong hold for the Conservatives, out side of the NDP political forts.

In addition, if the Liberals or the Conservatives want to get NDP support that means using Proportional Representation. This will SERIOUSLY alter the political landscape of Canada. The NDP will commonly reach 30 seats. The Liberals will likely always be in the majority given that they have cross-country support, the Conservatives will lose much of their former power and the Greens will make showings. The Bloc will be significantly reduced. Proportional Rep. will be a political revolution in Canada, one in the right direction.

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Jens
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« Reply #1396 on: June 25, 2004, 01:12:42 PM »

Proportional Rep. will be a political revolution in Canada, one in the right direction.
I agree. There is something flawed within the system when a party gets 15-20 % of the votes but only 5 % of the members of parliament.
It is generally unhealthy in a democracy when a large proportion of the population has no representation in parliament(It reminds me of the LibDems in GB in the eighties). Even parties like Front Nationale and BNP should get representation - mainly so that people can see what kind of madmen they are Wink

Well spoken Mr. Governor Grin
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1397 on: June 25, 2004, 02:22:18 PM »

Thanks for answering my question, Trilobyte!  Thank you also Al, New Federalist, and Siege40.

In this case, the three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be that the Liberals and New Democrats receiving a combined majority of seets (if the Grits continue their recovery and there is effective tactical voting among supporters of both parties), the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (but not the Liberals and the NDP) receiving a combined majority of seets (which seems quite likely now) and the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc (but no two of those parties) receiving a combined majority of seats (if the Grits get really hammered).  Between these three possibilities is the prospect of independent MPs holding the ballance of power (between the Liberals and NDP on the one hand and the opposition on the other or between the Liberals and BQ on the one hand v. the opposition on the other).  At this point, it doesn't seem likely that any party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but you never know.  Wouldn't it be something if a bunce of voters who disliked Martin because of the scandal, thought Harper was too extreme and either lived outside of Quebec or opposed soveriegnty for Quebec (and who may have been supporting the BQ as a protest against Martin) suddenly shifted their support to the NDP, resulting in an NDP majority in the House of Commons?  I know there's not much chance of that happening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

Interesting idea. However unlikely. My theory is that if the NDP get some serious gains, as everyone has been suggesting, their 25+ seats then the NDP could begin to grow as a realistic alternative. I have a feeling that the Golden Horseshoe will begin to go Orange. The Liberals will spread to the Suburbs and the Conservatives will take Rural Ontario. That's what I predict for Ontario.

The West will start to look like the American west, a Blue Strong hold for the Conservatives, out side of the NDP political forts.

In addition, if the Liberals or the Conservatives want to get NDP support that means using Proportional Representation. This will SERIOUSLY alter the political landscape of Canada. The NDP will commonly reach 30 seats. The Liberals will likely always be in the majority given that they have cross-country support, the Conservatives will lose much of their former power and the Greens will make showings. The Bloc will be significantly reduced. Proportional Rep. will be a political revolution in Canada, one in the right direction.

Siege

Actually the system that would work to the Dippers advantage the most would be the Australian system (STV/IRV in single member seats) which has the other advantage of every single vote counting.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1398 on: June 26, 2004, 09:56:28 AM »

Actually the system that would work to the Dippers advantage the most would be the Australian system (STV/IRV in single member seats) which has the other advantage of every single vote counting.

I don't care what'll help the NDP more, this is what I think is best for Democracy in Canada.

BTW, did you guys hear, Ralph Nader has endorsed Jack Layton. No political affect here, and I doubt there, but interesting none the less.

And if I'm not mistaken, 56 hours and 34 minutes until the first returns from "The Rock" come in.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1399 on: June 26, 2004, 10:00:30 AM »

Actually the system that would work to the Dippers advantage the most would be the Australian system (STV/IRV in single member seats) which has the other advantage of every single vote counting.

I don't care what'll help the NDP more, this is what I think is best for Democracy in Canada.

BTW, did you guys hear, Ralph Nader has endorsed Jack Layton. No political affect here, and I doubt there, but interesting none the less.

And if I'm not mistaken, 56 hours and 34 minutes until the first returns from "The Rock" come in.

Siege

STV in single seats is sort of proportional... and is very democratic... if somewhat complicated...
---
Re: Nader... let's hope that people on the Island don't hear about this...
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