2004 Democratic Primary

[Sibboleth]

Environics have released a poll showing a dead heat... however it was done between the 17th and 22nd of June. Before the recent CPC's slur against the LPC and NDP over Child Porn (see: http://www.vancouverscrum.blogspot.com) which appears to have backfired on them.

[Siege40]

Thanks for answering my question, Trilobyte!  Thank you also Al, New Federalist, and Siege40.

In this case, the three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be that the Liberals and New Democrats receiving a combined majority of seets (if the Grits continue their recovery and there is effective tactical voting among supporters of both parties), the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (but not the Liberals and the NDP) receiving a combined majority of seets (which seems quite likely now) and the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc (but no two of those parties) receiving a combined majority of seats (if the Grits get really hammered).  Between these three possibilities is the prospect of independent MPs holding the ballance of power (between the Liberals and NDP on the one hand and the opposition on the other or between the Liberals and BQ on the one hand v. the opposition on the other).  At this point, it doesn't seem likely that any party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but you never know.  Wouldn't it be something if a bunce of voters who disliked Martin because of the scandal, thought Harper was too extreme and either lived outside of Quebec or opposed soveriegnty for Quebec (and who may have been supporting the BQ as a protest against Martin) suddenly shifted their support to the NDP, resulting in an NDP majority in the House of Commons?  I know there's not much chance of that happening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

Interesting idea. However unlikely. My theory is that if the NDP get some serious gains, as everyone has been suggesting, their 25+ seats then the NDP could begin to grow as a realistic alternative. I have a feeling that the Golden Horseshoe will begin to go Orange. The Liberals will spread to the Suburbs and the Conservatives will take Rural Ontario. That's what I predict for Ontario.

The West will start to look like the American west, a Blue Strong hold for the Conservatives, out side of the NDP political forts.

In addition, if the Liberals or the Conservatives want to get NDP support that means using Proportional Representation. This will SERIOUSLY alter the political landscape of Canada. The NDP will commonly reach 30 seats. The Liberals will likely always be in the majority given that they have cross-country support, the Conservatives will lose much of their former power and the Greens will make showings. The Bloc will be significantly reduced. Proportional Rep. will be a political revolution in Canada, one in the right direction.

Siege

[Jens]

Proportional Rep. will be a political revolution in Canada, one in the right direction.

I agree. There is something flawed within the system when a party gets 15-20 % of the votes but only 5 % of the members of parliament.
It is generally unhealthy in a democracy when a large proportion of the population has no representation in parliament(It reminds me of the LibDems in GB in the eighties). Even parties like Front Nationale and BNP should get representation - mainly so that people can see what kind of madmen they are

Well spoken Mr. Governor

[Sibboleth]

Thanks for answering my question, Trilobyte!  Thank you also Al, New Federalist, and Siege40.

In this case, the three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be that the Liberals and New Democrats receiving a combined majority of seets (if the Grits continue their recovery and there is effective tactical voting among supporters of both parties), the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (but not the Liberals and the NDP) receiving a combined majority of seets (which seems quite likely now) and the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc (but no two of those parties) receiving a combined majority of seats (if the Grits get really hammered).  Between these three possibilities is the prospect of independent MPs holding the ballance of power (between the Liberals and NDP on the one hand and the opposition on the other or between the Liberals and BQ on the one hand v. the opposition on the other).  At this point, it doesn't seem likely that any party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but you never know.  Wouldn't it be something if a bunce of voters who disliked Martin because of the scandal, thought Harper was too extreme and either lived outside of Quebec or opposed soveriegnty for Quebec (and who may have been supporting the BQ as a protest against Martin) suddenly shifted their support to the NDP, resulting in an NDP majority in the House of Commons?  I know there's not much chance of that happening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

Interesting idea. However unlikely. My theory is that if the NDP get some serious gains, as everyone has been suggesting, their 25+ seats then the NDP could begin to grow as a realistic alternative. I have a feeling that the Golden Horseshoe will begin to go Orange. The Liberals will spread to the Suburbs and the Conservatives will take Rural Ontario. That's what I predict for Ontario.

The West will start to look like the American west, a Blue Strong hold for the Conservatives, out side of the NDP political forts.

In addition, if the Liberals or the Conservatives want to get NDP support that means using Proportional Representation. This will SERIOUSLY alter the political landscape of Canada. The NDP will commonly reach 30 seats. The Liberals will likely always be in the majority given that they have cross-country support, the Conservatives will lose much of their former power and the Greens will make showings. The Bloc will be significantly reduced. Proportional Rep. will be a political revolution in Canada, one in the right direction.

Siege

Actually the system that would work to the Dippers advantage the most would be the Australian system (STV/IRV in single member seats) which has the other advantage of every single vote counting.

[Siege40]

Actually the system that would work to the Dippers advantage the most would be the Australian system (STV/IRV in single member seats) which has the other advantage of every single vote counting.

I don't care what'll help the NDP more, this is what I think is best for Democracy in Canada.

BTW, did you guys hear, Ralph Nader has endorsed Jack Layton. No political affect here, and I doubt there, but interesting none the less.

And if I'm not mistaken, 56 hours and 34 minutes until the first returns from "The Rock" come in.

Siege

[Sibboleth]

Actually the system that would work to the Dippers advantage the most would be the Australian system (STV/IRV in single member seats) which has the other advantage of every single vote counting.

I don't care what'll help the NDP more, this is what I think is best for Democracy in Canada.

BTW, did you guys hear, Ralph Nader has endorsed Jack Layton. No political affect here, and I doubt there, but interesting none the less.

And if I'm not mistaken, 56 hours and 34 minutes until the first returns from "The Rock" come in.

Siege

STV in single seats is sort of proportional... and is very democratic... if somewhat complicated...
---
Re: Nader... let's hope that people on the Island don't hear about this...

[Siege40]

THIS JUST IN:

Ipsos-Reid Poll

56% of Canadians would support a Liberal minority NDP backed government.

(My math says 38%, but I keep hearing something like 40%+) Would support a Conservative minority backed by the NDP

6% would support a Conservative minority backed by the Bloc

Interesting...

Siege

[Sibboleth]

SES Research has released its final tracking poll: 34% Liberal, 30% Conservative, 20% NDP, 12% Bloc, 3% Green

[Siege40]

SES Research has released its final tracking poll: 34% Liberal, 30% Conservative, 20% NDP, 12% Bloc, 3% Green

Smiling all the way to the ballot box

Info on Nader and recent NDP developments:

http://www.cfrb.com/content/cp_article.asp?id=/global_feeds/canadianpress/nationalnews/n062515A.htm

[Sibboleth]

THIS JUST IN:

Ipsos-Reid Poll

56% of Canadians would support a Liberal minority NDP backed government.

(My math says 38%, but I keep hearing something like 40%+) Would support a Conservative minority backed by the NDP

6% would support a Conservative minority backed by the Bloc

Interesting...

Siege

A lot of people Out West like both the Dippers and the Tories but hate the Grits.
CPC voters in Interior BC are swing voters in the next BC provincial election (weird or what?)

[Sibboleth]

Latest Election Prediction Project numbers:

LPC 97
CPC 86
NDP 25
BQ   51
TC    48
Ind    1

[Sibboleth]

Latest Election Prediction Project numbers:

LPC 107
CPC  97
NDP 25
BQ   52
TC    24
Ind    1

All Western Provinces completed. Only 18 Ontario seats uncompleted.

[Siege40]

Hey Al, you going to be in here on Election night?

Siege

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What time do the polls close?....it terms of Eastern Time, the non-offset time used on this forum.  

Do returns roll in from East to West like they do in the US?

[Sibboleth]

Hey Al, you going to be in here on Election night?

Siege

Dunno yet

[Sibboleth]

More polls...

Ipsos-Reid: LPC 32, CPC 31, NDP 17, BQ 12, GPC 12
Ekos: LPC 32.6, CPC 31.8, NDP 19, BQ 11.2

[Sibboleth]

Election Prediction Project's final numbers:

LPC 121
CPC 105
NDP   29
BQ     52
Ind      1

[Platypus]

can you link me to taht site?

i remember seeing it for the QC elections a year or so ago; it's very interesting.

Also, why AFIP? As I said there, I like you but it's not your type of politics, I thought :confused:

[Sibboleth]

can you link me to taht site?

i remember seeing it for the QC elections a year or so ago; it's very interesting.

Also, why AFIP? As I said there, I like you but it's not your type of politics, I thought :confused:

www.electionprediction.com

They printed my near-libel-writ-inducing rant about a local poll

---
Re the fantasy politics thing, I set up my own party (the ILP) and am going to affiliate it to the AFIP.

[Siege40]

Ya Nick East-West. Time zone. Polls open at 9:30am. and close at 9:30pm. The first polls have opened up in the East. In 10 min. polls open here, and in 3 hours and 10 min. polls the last polls will open. The first returns will come in at 8pm EST.

Good poll numbers Al.

Siege

[© Tweed the Younger]

I checked Cspan.org and it said that CSPAN will air CBC's coverage of the election starting at 9:30 PM.

Go LPC!

[Sibboleth]

I'm not sure whether to stay up for the Atlantic or wake up for BC...

[© Tweed the Younger]

What do you guys say it will be?  A Liberal Minority?

[struct310]

This is exciting.  A switch from liberal to conservatives could occur today.  I dont know much about Canada but go CPC, even if it is a minority government.

[Siege40]

Remember, there will likely be many recounts and it may be as late as Thursday before all is set. What ever party gets the minority will only win be less than 20 seats.

Siege