2004 Democratic Primary

[Gustaf]

You really like talking to yourself in this thread, dont you.

No, simply pointing out that it seems quite odd that you can give predictions for 2004 but were unable to give a prediction for 2003Q4.  Would anyone listen to the predictions of a weatherman who couldn’t tell you the current conditions?

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<<Throw in enough fiscal stimulus with a combination of artifically low long term intrest rates due to Japan buying US debt to keep the Yen at depressed levels>>

Let me try to explain this to you very carefully:  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) does NOT buy US debt to boost the dollar because relative lower US rates depresses the dollar.  What is going on is that the BOJ is selling yen to buy dollars on the open market, thus increasing the supply of yen while lowering the supply of dollars in an effort to boost the dollar’s value.

As a result, the BOJ is holding a large amount of dollars with which it then turns around and buys US debt (purchased in dollars) in order to earn interest on all the dollars the BOJ is holding.

So, the effect on the value on the dollar of the BOJ purchase of dollars (increasing the dollar’s value) is partly being offset by the BOJ buying US debt (decreasing the dollar’s value).

If you’ll take a look at the pdf link I posted yesterday, you’ll find that the dollar’s value is still well above the level of the mid 1990’s.  In fact the bleeding of US manufacturing is closely tied to the sharp spike in the dollar’s value during the late 1990’s.
 

The Japanese cannot allow the dollar to weaken too much against the yen, b/c if it did they would go down even worse than they already have. In reality, they're pegged to the dollar.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The Japanese cannot allow the dollar to weaken too much against the yen, b/c if it did they would go down even worse than they already have. In reality, they're pegged to the dollar.

Japan is screwed (as are many countries other than the US) because they rely on exports as their engine for growth.  The US is a consumer led economy that generates its own wealth rather quickly.

The public debt of the US is roughly 40% of GDP and is owed in US dollars.  Japan’s public debt well over 100% of GDP.

The US currently has the:
1)Lowest inflation in 40 years
2)Lowest interest rates in 40 years
3)Highest productivity growth in 50 years
4)Highest GDP growth in 20 years
5)Highest home ownership on record
6)Highest business profits (>$1 Trillion/year) on record
7)Hottest housing market in 25 years

The US also has the most nibble economy of any of any of the G8 countries.  And the US is the most technologically advanced country in the world.  The US remains the envy of the world.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Throw in enough fiscal stimulus with a combination of artifically low long term intrest rates due to Japan buying US debt

One further note:  US interest rates are currently IN-LINE with what is prescribed by the Meyer version of Taylor's Rule.  Thus, they are NOT "artifically low".  

We have the lowest inflation in 40 years and the lowest interest rates in 40 years.  

Simple.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Existing home sales surge
 
Sales of pre-owned homes, biggest sector of housing market, grow faster than forecast in December.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/26/news/economy/existing_homes/index.htm

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interesting quote from article: "interest rates have stayed stubbornly low, keeping housing demand high"

This is the second time in a week CNNfn has characterized interest rates as “stubbornly low”.  I’ve always hate going to a “stubbornly” good party, don’t all of you?

CNNfn continues to try to throw a wet blanket on the economy due to CNN’s bias against Bush’s economic policies.

[Gustaf]

The Japanese cannot allow the dollar to weaken too much against the yen, b/c if it did they would go down even worse than they already have. In reality, they're pegged to the dollar.

Japan is screwed (as are many countries other than the US) because they rely on exports as their engine for growth.  The US is a consumer led economy that generates its own wealth rather quickly.

The public debt of the US is roughly 40% of GDP and is owed in US dollars.  Japan’s public debt well over 100% of GDP.

The US currently has the:
1)Lowest inflation in 40 years
2)Lowest interest rates in 40 years
3)Highest productivity growth in 50 years
4)Highest GDP growth in 20 years
5)Highest home ownership on record
6)Highest business profits (>$1 Trillion/year) on record
7)Hottest housing market in 25 years

The US also has the most nibble economy of any of any of the G8 countries.  And the US is the most technologically advanced country in the world.  The US remains the envy of the world.

Well, your economy is doing relatively well, but let's not overdo it. You still have a problem with pensions coming up, though it isn't as bad as in many other countries. Fundamentally, it comes down to Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian countries, just like at everything else.

I am a free-trader, and I don't think that reliance on the home market is a good idea in the long run, it only works as long as you're really, really, really good, and that you have been for a long time, but I think it increases the risk of protectionism and lowers creativity.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well, your economy is doing relatively well, but let's not overdo it.

Not overdoing it at all.  Simply posting well known facts.

[Gustaf]

Well, your economy is doing relatively well, but let's not overdo it.

Not overdoing it at all.  Simply posting well known facts.

Well, "the envy of the world" and "many countries are screwed" I felt was overdoing it a little.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well, your economy is doing relatively well, but let's not overdo it.

Not overdoing it at all.  Simply posting well known facts.

Well, "the envy of the world" and "many countries are screwed" I felt was overdoing it a little.

I didn't know there was any doubt that the US is the envy of the world.

[opebo]

The BLS just came out with the latest state-by-state unemployment statistics.  Over-the-month change:

http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstcm.htm

[© tweed]

Ohio's losing jobs faster than any state in the country?  Watch out GWB, because that's not a good sign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm going to give this yet another go...

District's will be listed by Number (eg. NY-1, 2, 3 etc), and the number will be followed by the name.

Former congressmen/president's name's may be used as well as and on combination with geographical names.
Whether said congressman was defeated will not make a differance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alabama

1. Mobile-Baldwin
2. Montgomery-Dothan
3. Montgomery-Auburn
4. Gadsden-Hamilton
5. Tennessee Valley
6. Jefferson-Shelby
7. Birmingham

Arkansas

1. Jonesboro-West Memphis
2. Little Rock
3. Fayetteville-Ozarks
4. Pine Bluff-Clinton

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New York

01. Suffolk East
02. Suffolk West
03. Nassau East
04. Nassau West
05. Queens-Nassau
06. Queens South East
07. Queens-Bronx
08. Manhatten-Brooklyn
09. Queens-Brooklyn-Jamaica Bay
10. Brooklyn-Bays
11. Brooklyn Central
12. Manhatten-Queens-Brooklyn
13. Staten Island
14. Manhatten-Queens
15. Harlem
16. South Bronx
17. Bronx-Rockland
18. Westchester-Rockland
19. Hudson Valley
20. Saratoga Springs-Glens Falls
21. Albany-Troy
22. Catskills
23. Adirondacks
24. Utica-Rome
25. Syracuse
26. Roosevelt
27. Buffalo
28. Niagara-Rochester
29. Allegany-Steuben

[bejkuy]

Oregon

1 West Portland suburbs and north coast

2 Loggers, ranchers, and farmers southern and eastern part of the state.  Huge district.

3 Inner Portland.

4 SouthCentral, including Eugene

5 Mid valley- including Salem

[© tweed]

Realpolitik--you fogot to include my birthplace of Coney Island in your district titles.  Please do so, it hurts me not to see it

[bejkuy]

MiamiU-

I figured you were born in an amusement park.

[© tweed]

MiamiU-

I figured you were born in an amusement park.

Huh?

[Platypus]

IOWA

1. East Iowa (Dubuque is a town further up from me, I wouldn't want to live in a district named after the town )
2. Cedar (Cedar Rapids, Cedar county, etc)
3. Hoover-the Iowan president!
4. Winnebago will do
5. Siouxlands

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Realpolitik--you fogot to include my birthplace of Coney Island in your district titles.  Please do so, it hurts me not to see it

Which district is Coney Island in?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

2003 Q4 rate of growth in broadest measure of economy healthy at 4%, but half of Q3's pace

Consumer spending rose at a pace of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a rate of growth of 6.9 percent in the third quarter.

Business spending grew at a healthy 6.9 percent pace, compared with a 12.8 percent annualized rate in the third quarter.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/30/news/economy/gdp/index.htm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iowa

1. Waterloo-Dubuque*
2. Cedar
3. Des Moines-Hoover
4. Winnebago
5. Sioux

*Could also be called Upper Mississippi

Illinois

01. Chicago Southside
02. Chicago Heights
03. Chicago West
04. Chicago Cicero
05. Chicago Northside
06. DuPage
07. Chicago Central
08. Lake-McHenry
09. Chicago Northside
10. North Chicago
11. Joliet
12. East St Louis and the Valleys
13. Will-DuPage
14. Batavia-Henry
15. Wabash
16. Rockford
17. Rock Island-Springfield
18. Springfield-Peoria-Lincoln
19. Kaskakia

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Weekly Leading Index Slips  (see 1st chart on opening post of this thread)

01/30/2004  

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - A drop in mortgage applications pulled down a leading index of the U.S. economy, but the growth improved on higher commodity prices and healthy stock market gains, a report showed on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) fell to 132.7 in the week ended Jan. 23 compared with the preceding week's upwardly revised reading of 133.3.

The annualized growth rate, a four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, increased to 10.8 percent from an upwardly revised 10.1 percent.

"It's clear evidence that the economy will continue to experience above trend growth even in light of this morning's GDP number," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.
 
http://businesscycle.com/showstory.php?storyID=612

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Michigan sentiment revised up
 
Closely watched measure of consumer confidence stronger than expected in January.
 
The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for January jumped to a revised 103.8 from 92.6 in December

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/30/news/economy/michigan/index.htm

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Midwest manufacturing surges
 
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its business barometer rose to 65.9 from 61.2 in December, the highest level since July 1994. Economists had forecast the index at 62.0.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/30/news/economy/napm.reut/index.htm

[jravnsbo]

very good manufacturing numbers, outstanding in fact!

Thought the GDP growth would be around 4%, frotm the job numbers we saw before, good.  Keep on chugging economy.  Now we just need to continue making jobs.

[opebo]

Ohio's losing jobs faster than any state in the country?  Watch out GWB, because that's not a good sign.

Yes, Miamiu I agree that was the most discouraging aspect of the report, though it is hard to discern much from a month to month change.  There were also some bits of good news - better employment in NM and AR.  Also on the bureau of labor statistics web site check out the 'over the year' change - perhaps more informatitve.

[Gustaf]

Ohio's losing jobs faster than any state in the country?  Watch out GWB, because that's not a good sign.

Yes, Miamiu I agree that was the most discouraging aspect of the report, though it is hard to discern much from a month to month change.  There were also some bits of good news - better employment in NM and AR.  Also on the bureau of labor statistics web site check out the 'over the year' change - perhaps more informatitve.

WHy AR? I mean, why would you be worried about it?