2004 Democratic Primary

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Manufacturing index near 20-year high
 
Nation's purchasing managers say business conditions much stronger than expected in November.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. manufacturing accelerated in November, the nation's purchasing managers said Monday, in a report that was the strongest in nearly 20 years and reinforced analysts' hopes that the long-sluggish economy is finally in a classic, self-sustaining expansion.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of manufacturing activity jumped to 62.8 from 57 in October. Economists, on average, expected an ISM index of 57, according to Briefing.com.

The index was the highest since 69.9 in December 1983 and has been above 50, a number that indicates expansion in the sector, for five straight months.
 
"It appears that the recovery is gaining momentum. Indications are that the manufacturing sector is ending 2003 on a very positive note, and all of the indexes support continued strength into 2004," said Norbert Ore, director of the ISM's survey committee. "While there are still companies lagging the recovery, they should be encouraged by the current indicators in the sector."

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/01/news/economy/ism/index.htm

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Gloom&Doomsters may just want to skip this story.  I'm sure it saddens you to have to read yet another story showing the economy rising faster than at any time in the last 20 years!

Maybe these purchasing managers are "planted" by the WSJ and aren't really seeing their businesses boom.

Hey, JNB, since you're so good at predicting economic storms for 2004, can you please step outside your house and give us a reading on the CURRENT (2003Q4) weather?   After all, who listens to a forcaster's opinion that refuses to admit to the current conditions?

LOL!

[emergingDmajority1]

the GOP is dead in NJ, take it from somebody that lives here.

They launched an all out attack on McGreevy in the months prior to election day, to the point where everybody's mailbox was overflowing with attack ads. Dems still won control of the state.

[John]

Bush will Get Back on Track & Win the 04 Election & Then he will get Real to Work

[Canadian observer]

Ernie Eves has resigned as leader of the Ontario Tories.

Where have you read it ? I haven't heard of that...

[Flying Dog]

NORTHEAST-SOLID DEM. i think even NH will go dem


SOUTHEAST-SOLID REPUBLICAN. south gets more and more red every election.

MIDWEST-WILL GO DEM. only indiana and kentucky will go repub

PLAIN STATES-SOLID REPUB


ROCKY MN STATES-SOLID REPUB

WEST COAST-DEM

DEM VICTORY- thanks to midwest

but that is just my belief

[jravnsbo]

jtf you were general but your analysis was 2000 replayed except NH.

Where else do you see Switches in states from one column to the other?

[Flying Dog]

jtf you were general but your analysis was 2000 replayed except NH.

Where else do you see Switches in states from one column to the other?

arizona-dem,missouri-dem,arkansaw-dem
minnisota-republican,oregaon-republican,ohio-dem

[jravnsbo]

Well o the states you mention I think Dems have problems for the following reasons-

AZ well Mccain has already said he will have an all out effort to help Bush win and with McCain running for reelection himself that will help Bush.

MO-mentioned bad Dem Gov, plus 2002 wins

OH-everything is run by GOP and been trending that way for some time.

AR- socially conservative state and all Dem have to be moderate to conserv to win.  Toss up one.

[jravnsbo]

U.S. stock close higher on strong economic, retail data
Monday December 1, 4:56 pm ET
By Tomi Kilgore


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stock indexes surged to new 52-week highs Monday as better-than-expected economic news and strong holiday sales data kept investors in a merry mood.
The Dow (^DJI - News) charged up 117 points, or 1.2 percent, to finish at 9,899, stretching its winning streak to six sessions. This level marks the index's highest close in a year and a half.


http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/031201/d06c49ce740a454d9a17df305482d47d_1.html

come on 10,000!

[Flying Dog]

Well o the states you mention I think Dems have problems for the following reasons-

AZ well Mccain has already said he will have an all out effort to help Bush win and with McCain running for reelection himself that will help Bush.

MO-mentioned bad Dem Gov, plus 2002 wins

OH-everything is run by GOP and been trending that way for some time.

AR- socially conservative state and all Dem have to be moderate to conserv to win.  Toss up one.

arizona-you may be right,but growing latino population could make it close. dem 1%

Mo-if gep is nomminee i think he will win it or edwards or clark for that matter. dem-5%

OHIO-growing population in clevland. i think it will go dem by 2%

Arkansaw-bush approval rating going down in every poll.dem-1%

all close races

[StevenNick]

New Jersey as a republican state? are you crazy?!?!!? I take offense to that


Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Wisconsin will also stay Dem. There is no evidence those states will swing to Bush. Just wishful thinking.

all 4 of these are Dem locks.

California (55)
Illinois (21)
Michigan (17)
Washington (11)


even Dean can win NJ

and if it's Gephardt/Edwards, we retain every state from 2000, perhaps gaining in Missouri and NH

It may sound crazy that I put NJ in the Republican column, but consider this:

Democrats solidified their control of the state legislature in 2003, but only because of district gerrymandering.  Republicans actually won a majority of votes cast statewide.  

Republicans have also made significant gains there in party ID.

Also, a lot of the victims of September 11 lived in New Jersey.  If Dean gets the nomination, which I believe he will, a lot of New Jersey residents may be driven to vote for Bush.

Maybe I should have put New Jersey as a possible turnover in '04 rather than probably, but as things stand right now I've got to give the advantage to the Bush.

[NorthernDog]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may sound crazy that I put NJ in the Republican column, but consider this:

Democrats solidified their control of the state legislature in 2003, but only because of district gerrymandering.  Republicans actually won a majority of votes cast statewide.  

Republicans have also made significant gains there in party ID.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

NJ is where most of my family lives. Definitely favors Democrats, but is a high income state and repealing the Bush tax cuts, as Dean wants, would not be popular!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Manufacturing index near 20-year high
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/01/news/economy/ism/index.htm

I forgot to mention the following...

The ISM's employment index rose to 51 from 47.7 in October, marking the first month above 50 in 37 months, and raising the chances that November saw the first gain in non-farm manufacturing payrolls since July 2000. The Labor Department is scheduled to release its figures for November employment on Friday.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My cousin told me, I'm not 100% certain that it's true... but I'll have a look around the net to see if it is.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

U.S. jobless benefits to expire
 
With the economy recovering and the labor market showing signs of life, some observers and politicians say the time is right to cut off the federal benefits, while others worry the labor market isn't yet healthy enough to run on its own.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/02/news/economy/jobless_benefits/index.htm

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It's time for these people to stop passing on jobs that are "beneath" them.  I don't understand how someone can take a government handout while turning down work.  

Even if it means flipping hamburgers or restocking shelves for a couple of months, isn't that better than having to take a hand-out?

[jravnsbo]

DEan and Gephardts and Clarks and Liebermans and Edwwrds and Kerrys TAX INCREASES are not going to be popular anywhere.  Just ask Mondale.

[jravnsbo]

Manufacturing jobs recovering is great news for all Americans!

Come on job numbers.  I'll be anxious to see them Friday.

[Nym90]

Or you could ask Clinton, who raised taxes on the wealthy in 1993, which of course doomed his chances of reelection....

[Flying Dog]

Or you could ask Clinton, who raised taxes on the wealthy in 1993, which of course doomed his chances of reelection....

LOL

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

corporate profits are still below where they were even in 97

Sorry to shake you up, but corporate profits, both pre-tax and after-tax, are HIGHER than their peak in 1997 and have surpassed $1 Trillion dollars for the first time in US history.

http://www.gkst.com/uploads/report-documents/9l5YXg20031128112937.pdf

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How long will I have to wait for your predictions on the current quarter (2003Q4)?

[jravnsbo]

yeah but it could be strongly argued that tax increases plus wanting national health care beaucracy led to Republican takeover of 1994, and when that happened Clinton moved towards the center and did Welfare reform and other more right issues to win reelection.

[TomAtPitt]

Or you could ask Clinton, who raised taxes on the wealthy in 1993, which of course doomed his chances of reelection....

Raising taxes on the wealthy wouldn't be a big political problem. Dean and Gephardt both want to raise taxes on the middle class, which could be harmful to them.

[jravnsbo]

Yeah and harmful to use all.

So at least pull the GOP lever down the ballot for balance if you want to save from massive middle class tax increases.


[Raising taxes on the wealthy wouldn't be a big political problem. Dean and Gephardt both want to raise taxes on the middle class, which could be harmful to them.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Nym90]

I agree that raising taxes on the middle class is a bad idea.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

I agree that raising taxes on the middle class is a bad idea.

yeah, well what about the poor? Does anyone care if taxes are raised on them?