2004 Democratic Primary
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Author Topic: 2004 Democratic Primary  (Read 438327 times)
Canadian observer
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« Reply #1075 on: April 02, 2004, 10:44:34 PM »

Presently it might be surprising to see Liberals win most of BC seats.  A few weeks ago, I watched a news report on CBC in which a Liberal strategist was questionned over the party's prospects for the next election.  All he answered was that the LPC might be lucky to hold 2 seats in the province.

Liberals may surely be hammered in Quebec if Paul Martin declares an election this spring.  The sponsorship scandal has long legs here in my home province.  The LPC is still trailing the BQ by a 10-point-and-plus margin (which means the Bloc would get 50 seats or more among the 75 federal seats allocated to the province).  The most recent Léger Poll annouced that 61% of the respondent were dissatified with Paul Martin's work as Prime Minister.

I haven't got any cue on Ontario recently.  However, based on what I heard and read about Martin Liberals' plan, they thought of gaining seats in Quebec in order to offset losses in Ontario. Of course, that plan was well before the outbreaking of the sponsorship scandal, but I think it tells much about the low confidence Liberals have about keeping almost all Ontario's seats.

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1076 on: April 02, 2004, 10:49:59 PM »

I just don't think adscam will have much of an impact when all is said and done.
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Canadian observer
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« Reply #1077 on: April 02, 2004, 10:57:51 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2004, 11:02:30 PM by Canadian observer »

Based on two other cases of political mood swing in Quebec (i.e., the up and down of ADQ in 2002-03 and the Charest effect in 1998), it may take 7 to 8 months for the Martin Liberals to regain the lead over the adverse party in Quebec.

There are rumours that Martin's team of advisors is divided over the timing of the election. Most of the French Quebecer advisors are said to beg the PM not to drop the writ until the end of summer. Meanwhile, the other advisors from the rest of Canada may like an election as soon as possible in order to give less time for the Conservatives.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #1078 on: April 02, 2004, 11:15:54 PM »

will the conservatives pick up any seats in ontario?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1079 on: April 02, 2004, 11:17:22 PM »

will the conservatives pick up any seats in ontario?

A few..
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Dave from Michigan
9iron768
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« Reply #1080 on: April 02, 2004, 11:25:15 PM »

what is the difference between the NDP and the liberal party
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1081 on: April 03, 2004, 06:00:14 AM »

what is the difference between the NDP and the liberal party

NDP=Social Democrats
LPC=Varies from province to province, NSLibs being the most left wing, ABLibs the most right wing (federally), BCLibs the most right wing (provincially)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1082 on: April 03, 2004, 06:05:36 AM »

My Tentative prediction map:



No shaded colors YET, Iw ill get to that...maybe.

I don't see the Liberals winning the most seats in BC... not so much Adscam as the unpopularity of the BCLibs provincial government and the resurgent BC NDP.
In terms of seats, both the CPC and the NDP have a better chance than the Liberals in BC (Liberal voters are inefficiantly spread across the province).
The Liberals have a chance to come first in Manitoba (though the Winnepeg re-districting really hurts them)... and the NDP might win the most seats in NS.
Not bad though Smiley
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Fritz
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« Reply #1083 on: April 03, 2004, 09:45:21 AM »
« Edited: April 03, 2004, 10:17:50 AM by JLD »

1024 x 768

Dave, mine was working fine until yesterday.  Now its all messed up- too wide.  Did you change something?

Edit: never mind.  I guess only one page in one thread is affected.  (Page 1 of the "Final vote on preferential voting" thread in the Fantasy election section)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1084 on: April 03, 2004, 10:07:34 AM »

I'll do another one next week.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1085 on: April 03, 2004, 11:07:14 AM »

Some good news for the Liberals in BC: former NDP Premier Ujjal Dosanjh has agreed to be their candidate in Vancouver South, which solidifies for the Liberals as he can't be tarred with the "Campbell brush".
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
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« Reply #1086 on: April 03, 2004, 11:13:59 AM »

I don't have time to keep the numbers on the first page updated, but I'll continue to keep the first page updated with most recent data in chart form.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #1087 on: April 03, 2004, 11:15:16 AM »

My guess, around 2% growth in 2004, job growth 500K to 1 million, unemployment rate 5.8%-6.3%.

Well, JNB, the 1st quarter of 2004 had a gain of 513k jobs for a yearly average of 2.1M...the umemployment rate so far in 2004 has been in the range of 5.6%-5.7%...we'll have to wait for the end of the month to get a reading on GDP.
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Ben.
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« Reply #1088 on: April 03, 2004, 11:19:18 AM »

My guess, around 2% growth in 2004, job growth 500K to 1 million, unemployment rate 5.8%-6.3%.

Well, JNB, the 1st quarter of 2004 had a gain of 513k jobs for a yearly average of 2.1M...the umemployment rate so far in 2004 has been in the range of 5.6%-5.7%...we'll have to wait for the end of the month to get a reading on GDP.


It's like you're a fashion model who gained 300 pounds since we hired you but you want to be rehired because you lost 30.

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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
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« Reply #1089 on: April 03, 2004, 11:33:22 AM »


It's like you're a fashion model who gained 300 pounds since we hired you but you want to be rehired because you lost 30.


No, more like a doctor who diagnosed in late 2000 the declining health of a patient when you thought every thing was perfect; and in July 2003 was trying to tell you that the patient was recovering faster than at any rate in 20 years!

While you doom&gloomsters have been forecasting a slip back into recession, I've been trying to tell you that the economy has a HUGE head of steam.

Granted, I didn't count on such huge gains in productivity delaying rehiring, but I have been telling you that things are improving, which for you Dems, if VERY bad news!  LOL!
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Ben.
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« Reply #1090 on: April 03, 2004, 12:04:16 PM »


It's like you're a fashion model who gained 300 pounds since we hired you but you want to be rehired because you lost 30.


No, more like a doctor who diagnosed in late 2000 the declining health of a patient when you thought every thing was perfect; and in July 2003 was trying to tell you that the patient was recovering faster than at any rate in 20 years!

While you doom&gloomsters have been forecasting a slip back into recession, I've been trying to tell you that the economy has a HUGE head of steam.

Granted, I didn't count on such huge gains in productivity delaying rehiring, but I have been telling you that things are improving, which for you Dems, if VERY bad news!  LOL!

"LOL" thats a bit unfair then again if things where reversed... but never mind.... i am having my doubts about where my party seems to be heading much as i am worried by where your party's heading...  
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dunn
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« Reply #1091 on: April 03, 2004, 12:10:51 PM »

1024 x 768

Dave, mine was working fine until yesterday.  Now its all messed up- too wide.  Did you change something?

Edit: never mind.  I guess only one page in one thread is affected.  (Page 1 of the "Final vote on preferential voting" thread in the Fantasy election section)
that's b/c someone there posted a wors too long
like yeeeeee but way longer
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1092 on: April 03, 2004, 12:12:32 PM »

They made many !!!!!!'s
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dunn
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« Reply #1093 on: April 03, 2004, 12:21:23 PM »

yeah
too many
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1094 on: April 03, 2004, 12:23:48 PM »


I think 8iron768 did it...lemme check
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1095 on: April 04, 2004, 04:43:58 PM »

Liberal hacks think they are safe in 2 to 3 ridings in BC and will lose 20 to 30 in Ontario
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Siege40
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« Reply #1096 on: April 04, 2004, 04:52:41 PM »

I was watching Question Period on CTV, between visits to the U.S., the G8, and the actions taken here lately, it is possible that the election will not be held until June. If I were Martin I'd find the big issue, like Gay Marriage, run on it, Gay marriage would hurt the NDP, but help the conservatives, so who knows. What should be the Liberal's big issue?

Siege40
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1097 on: April 05, 2004, 04:17:01 AM »

I was watching Question Period on CTV, between visits to the U.S., the G8, and the actions taken here lately, it is possible that the election will not be held until June. If I were Martin I'd find the big issue, like Gay Marriage, run on it, Gay marriage would hurt the NDP, but help the conservatives, so who knows. What should be the Liberal's big issue?

Siege40

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1098 on: April 05, 2004, 08:25:21 AM »

What should be the Liberal's big issue?

CHRETIEN.  Run on his coattails.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1099 on: April 05, 2004, 04:28:40 PM »

Parties need a strong, hard, and solid campaign issue, "Clearing House," is not a good enough reason. Many social programs require major reform, that could be their place to shine. They need something, or they could let the Conservatives in... AHHHH!!!

Siege40
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