Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania

[JRP1994]

Pennsylvania has been a target for the GOP in at least the last 4 elections. It's been a "close but not quite" state - fool's gold, some have called it.

It appears that the GOP can find up to 48-49% of the vote in PA fairly easily, as evidenced by Bush's showing in the state in 2004. But getting to that 50% mark has proven very difficult for a long time.

My question is open to anyone, but specifically directed at those of you who live in Pennsylvania. In your opinion, what specific measures should the GOP take in order to find that additional 1-2% of the vote, and turn the Keystone State into fertile ground for them?

[Asian Nazi]

Keep busting unions and continue to encourage white working class voters to come out for the GOP because of social issues.

[Sol]

Keep busting unions and continue to encourage white working class voters to come out for the GOP because of social issues.

This.

Of course, long-term, once the coal-fueled swings are over, I suspect that PA will move into the Likely Dem column more permanently, as the Philadelphia suburbs grow and move to the left.

[Nichlemn]

Pennsylvania has been a target for the GOP in at least the last 4 elections. It's been a "close but not quite" state - fool's gold, some have called it.

It appears that the GOP can find up to 48-49% of the vote in PA fairly easily, as evidenced by Bush's showing in the state in 2004. But getting to that 50% mark has proven very difficult for a long time.

My question is open to anyone, but specifically directed at those of you who live in Pennsylvania. In your opinion, what specific measures should the GOP take in order to find that additional 1-2% of the vote, and turn the Keystone State into fertile ground for them?

Become more popular nationwide.

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

The GOP has a fairly high floor in Pennsylvania but a low ceiling, and they're always going to bump their heads on it at around the 48-49% mark or so. Like the fruit eluded the grasp of Tantalus, so does Pennsylvania elude the GOP. So close, yet just out of reach.

Not that Pennsylvania will never go Republican again; however, when it does it will be part of a big GOP landslide win. It won't be the kind of state that flips to the GOP to decide a close election, unless maybe there's a Ralph Nader-type third party candidate splitting the vote with the Democrat.

[Nichlemn]

Does no-one in this thread realise that PA was basically tied for the tipping point state? It's not that unusually inelastic, the main reason the GOP hasn't won it in the last 20 years is that they haven't won nationally by more than 3 points in the last 20 years.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Pennsylvania is one of the more inelastic states, thus the GOP has problems topping 50% as turnout is more important than campaign ads.  Since PA has a Dem voter registration edge, it's tough for the GOP to do well.

[TeePee4Prez]

It largely depends on the TYPE of Republican.  If you can find one who can get the votes of Philadelphia suburban SUV moms, Office Park Dads AND blue collar whites in SW/NE Pennsylvania and Northeast/South Philly, the GOP will win PA.  Then again if they get that they'd win nationally.  

One thing I learned over the past 5 years if you pick the old war hero, populist Republican like McCain, you'd do better in blue collar areas but piss off suburban voters (think Palin might have hurt here as well).  You pick the Yankee Preppy Business-type Republican you'll do better in Montgomery and Bucks but anger places like Fishtown in Philly and Scranton.  Look the the Ward/Division results in the 5 county area.  The more blue collar white divisions McCain/Palin did well, but Romney lost many of them.  In 2012, it was reversed where some of the 2008 Obama divisions in Montgomery. Chester and Bucks flipped back.  

Conclusion:  The GOP is on a slippery slope here.  Go for one group, you alienate another!

[NHI]

It's fools gold for any GOP candidate that doesn't take it seriously.  Throwing in money into the last minute in a close election won't do it.  It needs the right candidate, in the right situation, with a big, dedicated push.  Think Indiana in 2008, but not as hard to flip.  Indiana then needed all of those things exactly; Pennsylvania has some more leeway, but it's the same formula.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jack murtha was resposible in turning penn from a purple state to a blue leaning state. It is the dems firewall state to get to 272. Jack murtha courage in 2006 ensured the defeat of rick santorum and lead the way to philly suburbs becoming blue. Bob casey helped close out the nomination process of obama and win the general.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Keep busting unions and continue to encourage white working class voters to come out for the GOP because of social issues.

Don't you mean downplaying social issues to get white working class votes?  If they want to carry PA in the future, that's what they have to to (espscially with the wealthy and middle-class suburbanites.)

[Asian Nazi]

Keep busting unions and continue to encourage white working class voters to come out for the GOP because of social issues.

Don't you mean downplaying social issues to get white working class votes?  If they want to carry PA in the future, that's what they have to to (espscially with the wealthy and middle-class suburbanites.)

No, the white working class in Pennsylvania is more socially conservative than the nation as a whole.  But yeah, if they want to win white "middle-class" and wealthy voters then they would have to moderate on social issues but then in turn they would alienate the SoCon working class voters who are naturally more inclined towards the Democrats on economic issues.

[Miles]

Well, could Republicans continue to gain in western PA? Or was 2012 a high-water mark for them there?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With the prospects of a allyson swartze gubernatorial victory and toomey being against minimum wage increase which may be on a state ballot during a prez year like gay marriage was on 2004, the dems are well positioned to win house seats to take back House then.

[DS0816]

Pennsylvania has been a target for the GOP in at least the last 4 elections. It's been a "close but not quite" state - fool's gold, some have called it.

It appears that the GOP can find up to 48-49% of the vote in PA fairly easily, as evidenced by Bush's showing in the state in 2004. But getting to that 50% mark has proven very difficult for a long time.

My question is open to anyone, but specifically directed at those of you who live in Pennsylvania. In your opinion, what specific measures should the GOP take in order to find that additional 1-2% of the vote, and turn the Keystone State into fertile ground for them?

Actually, the Republicans cannot "find up to 48-49% of the vote in [Pennsylvania]" easily. Since the 1950s, the state has had a Democratic tilt. (This is especially true when the two major-party candidates account for at least 98 percent of the presidential vote with the Key Stone State.) Last Democratic president elected while Pa. was in the Republican column dates back to 1948: Harry Truman was elected to a full term while Pa. carried for Thomas Dewey of neighboring New York. (Dewey's Republican pickups were nothing from the south, back then the base of that period's Democratic Party.) After that, all winning Republicans carried Pa. by a margin less than their national number. All prevailing Democrats carried Pa. by a margin exceeding their national number. And the losing Democrats of 1968, 2000, and 2004 carried Pa. in spite of Republican presidential victories.

[Smash255]

Well, could Republicans continue to gain in western PA? Or was 2012 a high-water mark for them there?

Perhaps, but the very same things that could move western PA a bit more Republican would have a reverse impact in areas like Montgomery and Chester Counties.

[Mr. Illini]

I don't see PA going anywhere anytime soon. Philly is very difficult to tap into and is a bastion for liberals. Pittsburgh is one of the more conservative cities, but I think the GOP has maxed out in western PA. If anything, this state is going to swing further left, like I see Ohio doing, as manufacturing jobs continue to go overseas and the Dems promise to raise tariffs on that.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I don't see Western PA getting any more Republican; look at the non-presidential results in 2012 (Democrats would have done even better if it wasn't a presidential year). Are we taking back  Westmoreland any time soon? No. But in a 50/50 race, I could see the Democratic nominee winning Fayette, Cambria, Beaver, and/or Greene.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Keep busting unions and continue to encourage white working class voters to come out for the GOP because of social issues.

Don't you mean downplaying social issues to get white working class votes?  If they want to carry PA in the future, that's what they have to to (espscially with the wealthy and middle-class suburbanites.)

No, the white working class in Pennsylvania is more socially conservative than the nation as a whole.  But yeah, if they want to win white "middle-class" and wealthy voters then they would have to moderate on social issues but then in turn they would alienate the SoCon working class voters who are naturally more inclined towards the Democrats on economic issues.

They wouldn't have to moderate on social issues, they'd just have to downplay them.  That's the key.

Pennsylvania, like Michigan and Wisconsin, is a swing state.  However, in all of those states, the presidential nominees seem to remain close, and Republicans always think they have a chance to carry those states, but then they lose at the last minute.  As I've said before, it's like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, Carville was right when he said that we're basically Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.  So, there's not much room for changing hands in a framework like that.

[King]

Pennsylvania is one of those states where Republicans turnout better for midterms so it looks like it swings, but the Presidential electorate is safe Dem.

[opebo]

Pennsylvania, like Michigan and Wisconsin, is a swing state.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Pennsylvania, like Michigan and Wisconsin, is a swing state.

Michigan is a swing state.  Bush only lost it by 5 points in 2000 and 3 points in 2004.  Obama won it pretty comfortably in 2008 and 2012, but those were Democrat years nationally.  Michigan was considered a swing state in 2004, and only two presidential elections don't change that.  Republicans currently control the governor's office, the attorney general's office (since 2002), and the secretary of state's office (since 1994).

[opebo]

Pennsylvania, like Michigan and Wisconsin, is a swing state.

Michigan is a swing state.  Bush only lost it by 5 points in 2000 and 3 points in 2004.  Obama won it pretty comfortably in 2008 and 2012, but those were Democrat years nationally.  Michigan was considered a swing state in 2004, and only two presidential elections don't change that.  Republicans currently control the governor's office, the attorney general's office (since 2002), and the secretary of state's office (since 1994).

Well alright, but clearly it is much less a swing state than Pennsylvania, and also less so than Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, like Michigan and Wisconsin, is a swing state.

Michigan is a swing state.  Bush only lost it by 5 points in 2000 and 3 points in 2004.  Obama won it pretty comfortably in 2008 and 2012, but those were Democrat years nationally.  Michigan was considered a swing state in 2004, and only two presidential elections don't change that.  Republicans currently control the governor's office, the attorney general's office (since 2002), and the secretary of state's office (since 1994).

The Republican Governor won in 2010 in the best year in decades for Republicans as a stealth candidate, and he is now wildly unpopular as is the Republican-dominated State Legislature. The Democratic Senator up for re-election won in a landslide in 2012.

Michigan becomes an R state if the Hard Right is able to convince Michiganders that they appreciate freedom from abortion and from high wages, but until then... the Governor is about as unpopular as Commies were in Poland in 1989.