Alabama

[jman123]

I have seen some articles that mentioned that Alabama could lose a House seat in 20 years. That is surprising since Alabama is right next to Georgia and part of the deep south which is known for its growth. 

  Strong growth areas in Alabama are in the Huntsville area. I don't understand why they might lose a seat. . 

[krazen1211]

The rural areas are depopulating or slowly growing.

[Benj]

Alabama is not known for its growth. The only part of the state growing significantly is the Huntsville region, which is only a small part of the state and not growing particularly fast. Georgia is growing because it has a major metropolitan area (Atlanta). Alabama does not. In fact, the largest county in Alabama, Jefferson County, containing Birmingham, shrank slightly between 2000 and 2010. The other two significant urban counties, Mobile County and Montgomery County, had anemic growth well below the national average. And many rural parts of Alabama are also shrinking.

[muon2]

Since the 2010 census AL has been growing at about 0.4% per year. That's roughly half the national rate of 0.7% per year. If all 50 states are projected to 2020, AL gets its 7th CD at number 433. That definitely puts it on the bubble.

[jimrtex]

I have seen some articles that mentioned that Alabama could lose a House seat in 20 years. That is surprising since Alabama is right next to Georgia and part of the deep south which is known for its growth. 

  Strong growth areas in Alabama are in the Huntsville area. I don't understand why they might lose a seat. . 

Alabama is already quite a bit below an entitlement to 7 seats.  In 2010, the national average was 708,000, while for Alabama it was 682,000.    Alternatively, if it had 6 seats, they would average 797,000.   Clearly, it is better to have districts that are 26,000 below vs. 89,000 too much.

By 2012, the difference was 31,000 below the national average vs. 84,000 above.   The gap closed from 63,000 to 53,000 in two years.  At that rate, another 10 years and the gap would disappear.

Project forward to 2020, and the difference would be 53,000 smaller with 7 seats vs. 65,000 for 6 seats.  So Alabama will just barely keep a 7th seat in 2020, and almost surely lose it by 2030.

Alabama is projected to gain 191,000 persons during this decade, a 4.0% increase.  Were it to only add 173,000 (a 3.6% increase) it would be in line to lose the 7th seat in 2020.

Alabama's economy is probably tied too much to manufacuturing, particularly auto manufacturing to have really strong continuous growth.

[Miles]

The rural areas are depopulating or slowly growing.

This.