New Jersey

[jman123]

What do you think will happen in the future with NJ? Do you think it will keep swinging dem or become a leaning dem  slight swing status in future elections?

 I mention this since Gov Christie is so popular and he is a Republican. It makes me wonder.

[Asian Nazi]

The national GOP will need to moderate massively (no pun intended) to be competitive in NJ like Christie is.  Also keep in mind that his approvals would be nowhere near as high without Sandy.

[JRP1994]

Christie as GOP nominee: New Jersey MAYBE becomes competitive. Will take a huge investment and ground game, plus Christie would have to stay moderate.

Other GOP nominee: Absolutely no chance, short of the GOP candidate winning by close to 10 points nationally.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

No, we're going to keep swinging Dem because the state is becoming less white.  Only 58% non-Hispanic white at this point.  NJ voters vote primarily on the economy, as well.  The GOP moderating on social issues isn't going to do a damn thing because all the suburban Republicans in NJ couldn't care less about social issues, anyway. 

[Emperor Charles V]

In my TL the next couple winners of NJ will be:

2016: Christie (R)
2020: Booker (D)
2024: Rubio (R)
2028: Newsom (D)
2032: Newsom (D)
2036: Sandlin (D)
2040: Boller (R)
2044: Lautner (D)
2048: DiSanto (D)
2052: Perry (D)
2056: Eastman (R)
2060: Eastman (R)
2064: Torrey (R)
2068: Torrey (R)
2072: Caldero (D)
2076: Rothstein (D)

Summary: Lean Democrat for the most part

[Devils30]

NJ could be a swing state if and only if Christie is the nominee (which I don't think will happen after right wing nuts attack). If it's any other GOP candidate, the state will receive zero attention and be in the bank for Hillary or whatever D.

[PJ]

Christie's only popular in NJ because of his extreme moderate stances compared to the rest of his party. If he runs, it might go republican, but remember that Romney lost MA, and Gore lost TN, so not necessarily. Otherwise no way in the current political climate. If there's a major shift with parties it could happen. NJ could only go Republican, if a GOP candidiate (not from NJ) is grabbing states like ME and OR.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Also, Christie's popularity has as much to do with his attitude as anything.  Same time... NJ won't stick by him if the National GOP molds him into something else. 

[Consciously Unconscious]

I think it could become a swing state, especially if Christie is the nominee.

[traininthedistance]

NJ will remain solidly Dem, barring a realignment of the two parties.  Mind you, said realignment will certainly happen at some point, but it's kind of hard to speculate when and in what manner.

Chris Christie certainly has a good chance of winning the state in 2016, but it should be regarded as akin to Obama winning Indiana in 2008: a fluke dependent on local popularity and a favorable national climate, not as a harbinger of the state turning purple.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

NJ will remain solidly Dem, barring a realignment of the two parties.  Mind you, said realignment will certainly happen at some point, but it's kind of hard to speculate when and in what manner.

Chris Christie certainly has a good chance of winning the state in 2016, but it should be regarded as akin to Obama winning Indiana in 2008: a fluke dependent on local popularity and a favorable national climate, not as a harbinger of the state turning purple.

Right.  We like Christie DESPITE him being a Republican... not because he is one. 

[sg0508]

Even if he were the nominee, he would not win the state in a presidential election, not even close.  Pres. Elections are far more partisan-aligned. 

[PJ]

NJ will remain solidly Dem, barring a realignment of the two parties.  Mind you, said realignment will certainly happen at some point, but it's kind of hard to speculate when and in what manner.

Chris Christie certainly has a good chance of winning the state in 2016, but it should be regarded as akin to Obama winning Indiana in 2008: a fluke dependent on local popularity and a favorable national climate, not as a harbinger of the state turning purple.

Wouldn't be ironic if Christie lead the GOP to the Liberal side of politics, the opposite of what Taft did?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

NJ will remain solidly Dem, barring a realignment of the two parties.  Mind you, said realignment will certainly happen at some point, but it's kind of hard to speculate when and in what manner.

Chris Christie certainly has a good chance of winning the state in 2016, but it should be regarded as akin to Obama winning Indiana in 2008: a fluke dependent on local popularity and a favorable national climate, not as a harbinger of the state turning purple.

Wouldn't be ironic if Christie lead the GOP to the Liberal side of politics, the opposite of what Taft did?

I'd probably vote for him if he did!  Right now the Dems are moderate and the GOP is hyper-conservative.  If we can move the GOP to moderate and get the Dems into the realm of TRUE leftism it will be better for all of us down the road.

Imagine!  An America where we are not arguing about evolution!  If a vote for Christie can do that, maybe I can endure a few years of laissez-faire. 

Ha!  I highly doubt this, though. 

[TDAS04]

New Jersey will continue to give Democrats an advantage in the near future.  If Christie is the Republican nominee, it could become competitive, but there would be no guarantee that he would carry it (especially if Hillary runs).

Demographically, New Jersey is not a friendly state for the current GOP.  It's among the most urban and diverse states, and it's also one of the least pro-gun.  Pennsylvania may be a better bet for Republicans, but it is still Democratic-leaning.

[PJ]

If Christie ran, NJ would probaly be as competitive for him as MA was for Rom

New Jersey will continue to give Democrats an advantage in the near future.  If Christie is the Republican nominee, it could become competitive, but there would be no guarantee that he would carry it (especially if Hillary runs).

Demographically, New Jersey is not a friendly state for the current GOP.  It's among the most urban and diverse states, and it's also one of the least pro-gun.  Pennsylvania may be a better bet for Republicans, but it is still Democratic-leaning.

ney.