Election Night 2016 -- A Timeline

[JRP1994]

10:00 on the East Coast, and polls have just closed in 4 states - 3 of which are battleground states in this election. At 10pm, we can make the following projections:

In Iowa: Too close to call
In Montana: Too early to call, but Christie leads
In Nevada: Too close to call
In Utah: Chris Christie is the projected winner

Adding Utah's 6 electoral votes to Christie's total brings him to 159 - Mrs. Clinton is still at 93.

[JRP1994]

It's 10 minutes after 10, and we have a major projection to make:

Hillary Clinton has won New Jersey, embarrassing Gov. Christie by winning his home state. Republicans were ecstatic about the possibility of regaining New Jersey, knowing that Christie is the only GOP candidate who could flip the state. Christie may stand tall in New Jersey, but Clinton stands taller tonight - New Jersey stays in the Democratic column tonight, giving Hillary Clinton another 14 electoral votes.

Here's the electoral map: Chris Christie at 159, Hillary Clinton at 107.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

How were they not able to call Indiana at 7PM for Christie?

Libertarians are fairly popular here, and state races usually are fairly close. Governors race here in 2012 was close, and the school superintendent (a democrat) won more votes than the now Governor Mike Pence. Also Clinton won the primary here in 2008 and Obama won the state in 2008. So, close is nothing new.

Yeah, but Obama carrying it in '08 I think was mostly a fluke.

[JRP1994]

At 10:15, we have a projection to make in the battleground state of North Carolina. We can project that Governor Christie will carry the Tarheel State's 15 electoral votes. This is a state that Gov. Schweitzer had visited numerous times during the campaign, hoping to flip the state for the Democrats, but it appears that North Carolina is in the Republican column.

The electoral count stands now: Chistie at 174, Clinton at 107.

[JRP1994]

And, moments later, we can make a call in the state of Missouri - Missouri will stay in the Republican column. Like Arkansas, Clinton had hoped to flip Missouri back into the Democratic column, and was thought to have a strong chance at doing so, but Missouri goes for Chris Christie tonight.

Adding Missouri brings Christie's electoral count to 184 - Clinton still at 107.

And, let's recap the states in which we cannot make a projection for either candidate:

Arizona: Too early to call, but Christie leads
Colorado: Too close to call
Florida: Too close to call
Iowa: Too close to call
Maine's 2nd District: Too close to call
Michigan: Too early to call, but Clinton leads
Minnesota: Too close to call
Montana: Too early to call, but Christie leads
New Hampshire: Too close to call
New Mexico: Too early to call, but Clinton leads
Nevada: Too close to call
Ohio: Too close to call
Pennsylvania: Too close to call
Virginia: Too close to call
Wisconsin: Too close to call

Here's the electoral map as it stands right now:

[JRP1994]

And, as Missouri goes, so goes Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. At 10:19pm, we can project that Nebraska's 2nd CD will go to Chris Christie, giving him an additional electoral vote, and bringing his total to 185. Clinton still at 107.

[JRP1994]

It may sound like a broken record, but at 10:24, we have another projection to make for Chris Christie - he is the winner in the battleground state of Arizona. The Grand Canyon state's 11 electoral votes bring his total to 196 - Clinton still at 107.

[JRP1994]

We have another projection to make. At 10:31pm, we can project that the state of New Mexico will go for Hillary Clinton. Mr. Christie invested heavily in the state, hoping that Sen. Rubio as his VP would help him appeal to hispanic voters in the state - not to be the case. New Mexico stays in the Democratic column, bringing Mrs. Clinton's total to....

Wait, hold on....

We have a major projection to make. In the battleground state of Michigan, a state where both campaigns spent millions of dollars and made dozens of visits, we can project that the winner is Hillary Clinton. Michigan stays blue for the Democrats tonight, cutting off a path to victory for Gov. Christie, and keeping Mrs. Clinton's hopes alive.

Michigan's 16 electoral votes bring Mrs. Clinton's total to 128 - she still trails Mr. Christie, who is at 196.

Here's the map:

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Michigan is still a swing state, but I feel bad that it's fallen to the Dems again.

[JRP1994]

It's 10:50 - the polls will be closing in 4 more states in about 10 minutes. But before they do, we have another major projection to make, in the largest battleground state of this election.

We can project that the state of Florida, the home state of Sen. Marco Rubio, will be won by Chris Christie. There's plenty of sunshine for Christie/Rubio in Florida, as the state flips into the Republican column. This is the first state that either campaign has flipped from the 2012 result - therefore it will be shaded a slightly lighter shade of red, to indicate a turnover.

The electoral count now stands at - Christie: 225, Clinton: 128

[JRP1994]

It's 11:00pm, and the polls have just closed in 5 more states. With those poll closings, we have a few projections to make:

In California: Hillary Clinton is the projected winner
In Hawaii: Hillary Clinton is the projected winner
In Idaho: Chris Christie is the projected winner
In Oregon: Too early to call, but Clinton is leading
In Washington: Too early to call, but Clinton is leading

Here's the electoral map at 11:00pm. Christie has 229 electoral votes, Clinton has 187. Christie still leading, but Clinton is narrowing the gap.

[JRP1994]

At 11:03, we have a projection in the state of Wisconsin - the state will go to Hillary Clinton. Gov. Christie competed in the state throughout the campaign, and the polls were very close, but we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Wisconsin.


Christie still at 229, Hillary inching forward at 197.

[JRP1994]

11:12, and we have another projection to make - we can project that Chris Christie will in Montana, the home state of Mrs. Clinton's running mate, Gov. Brian Schweitzer. It's a small prize in terms of electoral votes, but Montana's 4 electoral votes move Christie closer to the magic number of 270.

Christie: 232, Clinton: 197

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is Clinton not doing as well as now? Are her negatives just being driven up, combined with Democrat fatigue?

[JRP1994]

Pretty much. Approval ratings dropped due to negative campaign, Democrat fatigue, and a strong GE challenger. In this TL, polls are virtually tied at 49%.

[JRP1994]

At 11:18, we have another projection to make. We can project that Hillary Clinton is the winner in the state of Washington, netting her another 12 electoral votes.

Mrs. Clinton is now at 209, Mr. Christie at 232.

[badgate]

Wow, ME-2 must be extraordinarily close

[JRP1994]

Yes. In this TL, Christie was able to maintain a sense of bipartisanship (as opposed to rigid far-right lunacy), and thus his appeal in New England was manifested in NH, ME2, and PA.

[JRP1994]

At 11:30, we can project that Hillary Clinton is the projected winner in the state of Oregon. Mr. Christie contested the state in the closing days of this campaign, but apparently it was not enough to flip the long-time Democratic Oregon into the Republican column - Oregon goes for Clinton tonight.

Here's the electoral map: Christie still at 232, Clinton at 216. Mrs. Clinton has not lead in the electoral count yet tonight, but Gov. Christie's lead is down to 16 EVs, and shrinking.

[JRP1994]

It's 11:37, and we can now project a winner in Minnesota: it is Hillary Clinton. The Christie/Rubio ticket spent millions in Minnesota, hoping to flip it for the first time since 1972, but it appears their efforts have come up short - Minnesota stays in the Democratic column tonight.

Christie: 232, Clinton: 226

[JRP1994]

11:40, and we have a projection in Maine's 2nd Congressional District. We can project that the district will be won by Hillary Clinton. This is a blow to the Christie campaign, who had hoped to capture one of Maine's electoral votes, as President Obama did in Nebraska in 2008. That is not to be the case - we are now projecting all 4 of Maine's electoral votes for Hillary Clinton.

Christie: 232, Clinton: 227

[JRP1994]

At 12:05, we can make a major projection: Hillary Clinton is the projected winner in the state of Pennsylvania. This is a crippling blow to the Christie campaign - Gov. Christie had hoped to offset a loss in Michigan by winning the Keystone State, in addition to providing insurance against a loss in Virginia or Ohio, both of which are still too close to call. But at 5 minutes after midnight, we can project that Hillary Clinton will carry the state of Pennsylvania.

Let's take a look at the states in which we cannot make a projection:

In Colorado: Too close to call (Clinton: 50%, Christie: 49%)
In Iowa: Too close to call (Christie 49%, Clinton 49%)
In Nevada: Too close to call (Clinton 50%, Christie 49%)
In New Hampshire: Too close to call (Christie 49%, Clinton 49%)
In Ohio: Too close to call (Christie 50%, Clinton 49%)
In Virginia: Too close to call (Christie: 49%, Clinton 49%)
In Alaska: Polls will not close for another 55 minutes

For the first time tonight, Mrs. Clinton is in the lead. She has 247 electoral votes, to Mr. Christie's 232.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Those numbers suggest that Hillary has won Virginia (since the Democratic areas tend to come in later).

[JRP1994]

We finally have a result out of New Hampshire. At 12:09, we can project that Chris Christie has carried New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes. New Hampshire was one of the hardest-fought-for states in this campaign, and we can project that it will go to Gov. Christie tonight.

Here's the electoral map. Christie is at 236, Clinton at 247.

[JRP1994]

We have another major projection to make. We are now calling the battleground state of Ohio for Chris Christie. This is a major victory for the Christie campaign, and pulls him into the lead again in the electoral college count. Christie now leads Clinton 254-247.