Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[buritobr]

I decided to vote for Eduardo Jorge in the first round, and for Dilma Rousseff only in the second round, no matter if the opponent is Aécio Neves or Marina Silva.

I am against protest vote, and that's why I don't vote for Luciana Genro. But in the last days, Eduardo Jorge ran a serious campaign. I liked many of his proposals.

[buritobr]

I will write the numbers of my predictions only tommorow evening, after the last polls. But I think that Aécio Neves will go to the second round. He performed much better than Dilma Roussef and Marina Silva.

Concerning the state elections, I think that Padilha and Lindberg will have a much better result than they polling now. Dilma has 35% in Rio de Janeiro. Many Dilma voters will vote for Pezão, Garotinho and Crivella, but I think that many Dilma voters who have not decided yet the vote for governor will decide to vote for the candidate of the same party. Considering that Dilma has 25% in São Paulo and Padilha has only 11%, I think that also in São Paulo there is room for Padilha to grow in the eve of the election.
Many people decide for whom they will vote for president many months before the election, and decide for whom they will vote for governor only few days before. In São Paulo in 1998, 2002, 2006 the polls were predicting that the PT candidate for governor would have a much worse result than Lula, and than, the PT candidate for governor used to finish only a little bit worse than Lula.

[Paleobrazilian]

I will write the numbers of my predictions only tommorow evening, after the last polls. But I think that Aécio Neves will go to the second round. He performed much better than Dilma Roussef and Marina Silva.

Concerning the state elections, I think that Padilha and Lindberg will have a much better result than they polling now. Dilma has 35% in Rio de Janeiro. Many Dilma voters will vote for Pezão, Garotinho and Crivella, but I think that many Dilma voters who have not decided yet the vote for governor will decide to vote for the candidate of the same party. Considering that Dilma has 25% in São Paulo and Padilha has only 11%, I think that also in São Paulo there is room for Padilha to grow in the eve of the election.
Many people decide for whom they will vote for president many months before the election, and decide for whom they will vote for governor only few days before. In São Paulo in 1998, 2002, 2006 the polls were predicting that the PT candidate for governor would have a much worse result than Lula, and than, the PT candidate for governor used to finish only a little bit worse than Lula.

While I expect Padilha to perform better than he's polling, he has a huge problem which is his rejection rate. 20% of PT voters say they'd never vote for him according to Datafolha. Plus, Alckmin has high approval ratings among poorer voters that usually vote PT. It's not impossible, but a runoff at this moment when the electoral campaign has ended seems unlikely.

I think Padilha will gain specially from Skaf on election day. Skaf has many unstable votes on the Greater São Paulo area that could flock to Padilha with the strong ground support the PT usually has in the area. 73% of Skaf voters don't know the number of their candidate, a pretty strong indication that the numbers Skaf has been showing could decline on election day. Skaf also has a big problem which is the fact that he was abandoned by most PMDB Mayors of the State, who're now endorsing Alckmin. A similar phenomenon happened in 2010, when Saturday polls showed Russomano with 10% and Mercadante with 30%. The day after, Russomano finished with 5%, and probably most of these votes flocked to Mercadante. That's the difference the grassroots can make.

But let's wait until tomorrow to make safer statements.

[buritobr]

I learned in this forum that there is a big coincidence. Bulgaria will also hold elections tomorrow. Bulgaria is the home of the Rousseff family. So, in this year, the bulgarians are not watching Brazilian elections, as they were in 2010.

[Paleobrazilian]

Polling times tomorrow:

8 AM Brasília Time (12 PM GMT, 7 AM EST) - Polls open in most states.
9 AM Brasília Time (1 PM GMT, 8 AM EST) - Polls open in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia, Roraima and most of Amazonas.
10 AM Brasília Time (2 PM GMT, 9 AM EST) - Polls open in Acre and Western Amazonas.

5 PM Brasília Time (9 PM GMT, 4 PM EST) - Polls close in most states. Exit polls for those state races are released. Ballots from those states start being counted, those from state races start being released.
6 PM Brasília Time (10 PM GMT, 5 PM EST) - Polls close in Mato Groso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia, Roraima and most of Amazonas. Exit polls for those state races (except Amazonas) are released. Ballots from those states start being counted, those from state races start being released (exept Amazonas).
7 PM Brasília Time (11 PM GMT, 6 PM EST) - Polls close in the entire country. The national exit poll is released. Ballots from the national race start being released.

Some states are very quick with the electronic counting, among them Paraná, Santa Catarina and Espírito Santo. São Paulo is usually among the slowest. Anyway, no matter how tight the race is, by midnight tomorrow we'll most likely know the outcome of all races.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to both IBOPE and Datafolha, AECIO HAS MADE IT! He's now at least 2% ahead of Marina. It's still within the margin of error, though.

The polls already consider valid votes.

IBOPE:

Dilma Rousseff (PT): 46%
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 27%
Marina Silva (PSB): 24%
Others: 3%

Datafolha:

Dilma Rousseff (PT): 44%
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 26%
Marina Silva (PSB): 24%
Others: 6%

[Paleobrazilian]

Datafolha predicts the following runoff between Dilma x Aecio: Dilma 48% x Aecio 42% (53% x 47% on valid votes). Geraldo Alckmin was never this close to Lula in 2006, José Serra was never this close to Dilma in 2010. PSDBists will be hugely motivated now.

[politicus]

It would be a big anticlimax with Aécio/Dilma now.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Didn't Marina massively overperform her polling in 2010? Could the same thing happen tomorrow?

[Paleobrazilian]

Didn't Marina massively overperform her polling in 2010? Could the same thing happen tomorrow?

Back in 2010, both Serra and Marina overperformed their polling by 2% on election day. It was Dilma's percentage that was massively overestimated.

[Niemeyerite]

Datafolha predicts the following runoff between Dilma x Aecio: Dilma 48% x Aecio 42% (53% x 47% on valid votes). Geraldo Alckmin was never this close to Lula in 2006, José Serra was never this close to Dilma in 2010. PSDBists will be hugely motivated now.

Serra actually tied Dilma in some polls.

[Paleobrazilian]

Datafolha predicts the following runoff between Dilma x Aecio: Dilma 48% x Aecio 42% (53% x 47% on valid votes). Geraldo Alckmin was never this close to Lula in 2006, José Serra was never this close to Dilma in 2010. PSDBists will be hugely motivated now.

Serra actually tied Dilma in some polls.

That was very early on. When the official campaign started Dilma was already ahead by a good margin. On the eve of the 1st round Dilma was 10 points ahead Serra. Serra tightened a little bit on the following week but Dilma soon recovered.

[RodPresident]

Dilma had a massive surge after start of free TV airtime. Dilma got 55% in some polls, but after Erenice Guerra's scandal (Dilma's trusted right-hand at government)...
Breaking in my state:
Paulo Souto  DEM): 36%
Rui Costa (PT): 36%
Lidice (PSB): 4%
Another 3 candidates: 1% each

[buritobr]

My prediction is not based on the national Ibope poll, but on the 27 state Ibope polls, weighted according to the population of each state. I considered that all the "undecided" voters will vote for Aécio Neves, because he is on a growing trend. The prediction is

Dilma Rousseff 43.6%
Aécio Neves 28.3%
Marina Silva 23.9%
Others 4.2%

In the "others", probably Luciana Genro will win and Eduardo Jorge, Pastor Everaldo and Levy Fidelix will be tied.

I showed the table of the calculation in my blog
http://blogdomarcelobrito.blogspot.com.br/2014/10/projecao-do-resultado-do-primeiro-turno.html

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Damn. I was gearing up for Dilma v. Marina runoff. That would be really interesting

[Tender Branson]

Wait, what ?

Last time I checked (which was a month or 2 ago) Silva was easily making the run-off and was even tied with Rousseff.

And now she's even struggling to come in 2nd ?

What the hell happened ?

[buritobr]

Details of the Datafolha poll October 4th

All: Dilma 40%, Aécio 24%, Marina 22%

Age
16-24: Dilma 36%, Aécio 24%, Marina 25%
25-34: Dilma 38%, Aécio 22%, Marina 26%
35-44: Dilma 43%, Aécio 22%, Marina 21%
45-59: Dilma 42%, Aécio 25%, Marina 20%
60-: Dilma 42%, Aécio 27%, Marina 19%

Grade of school
Elementary: Dilma 50%, Aécio 19%, Marina 18%
High School: Dilma 38%, Aécio 24%, Marina 24%
College: Dilma 26%, Aécio 34%, Marina 26%

Household Income
Less than 2 minimum wages: Dilma 49%, Aécio 17%, Marina 20%
Between 2 and 5 minimum wages: Dilma 37%, Aécio 26%, Marina 24%
Between 5 and 10 minimum wages: Dilma 28%, Aécio 33%, Marina 25%
More than 10 minimum wages: Dilma 24%, Aécio 41%, Marina 25%
One minimum wage in Brazil ~ US$300 monthly

Region
Southeast: Dilma 32%, Aécio 27%, Marina 25%
South: Dilma 38%, Aécio 32%, Marina 15%
Northeast: Dilma 55%, Aécio 13%, Marina 21%
Center-West: Dilma 33%, Aécio 32%, Marina 23%
North: Dilma 47%, Aécio 22%, Marina 20%

[buritobr]

Wait, what ?

Last time I checked (which was a month or 2 ago) Silva was easily making the run-off and was even tied with Rousseff.

And now she's even struggling to come in 2nd ?

What the hell happened ?

Very bad campaign. She tried to show to the anti-Dilma voters that she would have more chances to win against Dilma in the runoff, but she never convinced these voters why would she be a better presidente than Aécio Neves.

[Niemeyerite]

Just voted with my mum. She knows nothing about Brazil politics since she came to Spain... And I was undecided between Jorge and Genro... So the solution was: I voted for Jorge and she voted for Genro! As simple as that hahahaha..

[Paleobrazilian]

Several problems being reported on polling stations that are adopting the new fingerprint ID system.

[Niemeyerite]

There's an exit poll being spread on the Twitter, which says Dilma 52%, Aécio 22%, Marina 21%... It may be a hoax, but there are other users saying the CNN exit poll has Dilma winning with 55%.

[Double Carpet]

Does anyone have any Brazil TV links which can be watched online from abroad?

Thanks!

[Paleobrazilian]

Try GloboNews: http://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2014/cobertura-votacao-apuracao.html

Most polls close in 10 minutes. I'll be posting all exit polls once they close so be prepared for many posts.

[Paleobrazilian]

Once polls close follow the results here: http://divulga.tse.jus.br/oficial/index.html

[Paleobrazilian]

According to IBOPE Alckmin will likely be reelected Governor of São Paulo with 52% of the valid votes. Padilha grows a lot and finishes only 2% behind Skaf, with 20%.