Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Velasco]

According to O Globo, Aécio Neves won among Brazilian residents in Israel.

Aécio got 142 votes (69%), Marina 36 (17%) and Dilma 15 (7%). Luciana Genro and Eduardo Jorge got 4 and 3 votes, respectively.

Hundreds of Brazilian electors voted in Ramallah, but results haven't been publicised.

[Paleobrazilian]

In Rio, IBOPE says Pezão (34%) and Garotinho (28%) will face-off in a runoff.

[Hash]

SP-Senate, exit poll

Serra (PSDB) - 49%
Suplicy (PT) - 34%
Kassab (PSD) - 9%

[Paleobrazilian]

In Minas Gerais, IBOPE claims Fernando Pimentel (PT) has been elected with 53% of the votes. Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) reaches 37%

[Hash]

RJ-Senate, exit poll

Romário (PSB) – 62%
Cesar Maia (DEM) – 22%
Liliam Sá (PROS) – 6%

[Zanas]

Is it me or PT candidates seem to overperform their polling scores ?

[Paleobrazilian]

Federal District: Rodrigo Rollemberg (44%) and Jofran Frejat (29%) go to the runoff. Incumbent Agnelo Queiroz gets only 21%.

[Paleobrazilian]

Is it me or PT candidates seem to overperform their polling scores ?

Only Padilha so far. Pimentel underperformed by 8% according to IBOPE.

Edit: Rui Costa also overperformed.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bahia: Rui Costa (PT) passes Paulo Souto and is very close to election at 49%. Paulo Souto (DEM) falls to 39%.

[Paleobrazilian]

Ceará: Eunício Oliveira (PMDB) is very close to being elected as well, with 49%. Camilo Santana (PT) gets 44% and may force a runoff.

[Paleobrazilian]

Pernambuco: No surprises as Paulo Camara (PSB) should be elected with 58% of the votes in Eduardo Campos' state. Armando Monteiro (PTB), who once led, gets 38%.

[Paleobrazilian]

Paraná: Beto Richa is probably going to be reelected with 55%. Former Governor Requião gets 27%, Gleisi Hoffman 14%.

[Paleobrazilian]

Rio Grande do Sul: Tarso Genro (PT) makes it to the runoff in his reelection bid at 35%. José Ivo Sartori (PMDB) reaches 29% and likely takes down former leader Ana Amélia, who's at 26% making the runoff as well.

[Paleobrazilian]

In Senate races, the only big changes are Fernando Bezerra Coelho (PSB) winning against João Paulo (PT), and Otto Alencar (PSD) taking down Geddel Vieira (PMDB), who was favored early on.

[Zanas]

What's the threshold to make it into the runoff ?

[Paleobrazilian]

What's the threshold to make it into the runoff ?

The leader can't get more than 50%.

[Zanas]

What's the threshold to make it into the runoff ?

The leader can't get more than 50%.

You mean that if no one gets to 50%, every one can run in the runoff ? It's not just the two leading candidates of first round, or anyone with more than 10% ?

[Hash]

The runoff is the top two.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Federal District has already counted more than 20% of its polls. It's clear Rollemberg (PSB) and Frejat (PR) made it to the runoff. With about 45% and very low rejection rates, Rollemberg will be favored in a runoff, where Agnelo's votes should migrate to him.

Brazil's Federal District has a LONG history of corruption, so Rollemberg's "freshness" may be welcome to voters there.

[Hash]

In Pará's gubernatorial race, Helder Barbalho (PMDB-PT), the son of infamously corrupt senator Jader Barbalho, leads the PSDB governor 51-47 with about 6.6% reporting.

[Paleobrazilian]

In Maranhão, according to polls earlier this week and early results, Flavio Dino (PCdoB) is on the verge of taking down the Sarney clan who has directly or indirectly governed that state for some 60 years or so.

[Paleobrazilian]

With over 30% of the polls counted and exit poll results, I'm calling Paraná for Beto Richa (PSDB). A gigantic win for him, who was seen as in trouble since 2012. No one expected him to win in a 1st round. If Aecio doesn't win the presidency, Richa will certainly be in the game for 2018.

PS: Congrats to Richa. I really like him and feel he has a bright future. He ran a great campaign and his slogan was perfect and captured voters - Paraná que acredita (Paraná believes, in English).

[Paleobrazilian]

Also in Paraná, Sen. Alvaro Dias (PSDB) will be reelected in the biggest landslide of the year, possibly with over 75% of the votes. If he weren't 70 years old, he'd be the automatic candidate for the Government of Paraná in 2018.

Also noteworthy, Fr. Senator Tasso Jereissati (PSDB) has completed his comeback and will be elected Senator in Ceará. He was one of the biggest political foes of Lula during Lula's term, and Lula personally ensued Jereissati wouldn't be reelected in 2010.  Jereissati retired from politics at first, but then decided to go back after Aecio asked him, and it worked out beautifully. Jereissati will also be important because he's one of the great PSDB gurus who can give some cohesion to the party.

[Paleobrazilian]

Fr. Governor Paulo Hartung (PMDB) will take back his old job in Espírito Santo from incumbent Governor Renato Casagrande (PSB), who fails to win reelection. Casagrande's failed reelection bid is a huge disappointment for his party.

[Paleobrazilian]

With over 50% of the votes counted in Rio Grande do Sul, José Ivo Sartori (PMDB) confirms his amazing performance and there's a big chance he'll finish the 1st round ahead Tarso Genro (PT). Ana Amelia's votes will likely migrate to Sartori. Sartori is the typical "gaúcho", and that definitely helped him connect with voters.