Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

Here in São Paulo Celso Russomano (PRB) is getting over 1.3 million votes running for the Chamber. He'll be a very strong candidate for Mayor of São Paulo in 2016, specially considering the weak approvals of current Mayor Fernando Haddad (PT).

[jaichind]

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1527715-comite-petista-ja-cogita-aceno-de-dilma-a-marina.shtml

Google translate is not that that great.  But from I can gather from this, Rousseff’s PT considers approaching silva

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What a shame. A Dilma/Marina runoff would have been so much more interesting...

Well, at least with Collor's reelection in Alagoas there's something to celebrate about.

[Paleobrazilian]

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1527715-comite-petista-ja-cogita-aceno-de-dilma-a-marina.shtml

Google translate is not that that great.  But from I can gather from this, Rousseff’s PT considers approaching silva

Exactly. That's not a bad bet, considering the PSB has a strong "old left" wing which is still very close to the PT. The "new left" of the PSB would probably prefer going with the PSDB.

Then again, Marina is not from the PSB. And Dilma slammed Marina so hard that I doubt her pride will allow her making mends with Dilma.

[Paleobrazilian]

Not only Alckmin has been reelected, he also elected a gigantic number of Federal and State Congressmen. Look out, Congressmen like Bruno Covas and Carlos Sampaio and State Congressmen like Fernando Capez are a huge part of the future of the PSDB.

[jaichind]

Carlos Kawall, former secretary of the Treasury now Banco J.safara economist, seems to indicate that Neves has a chance to win on second round with such a first round differential.  

[Niemeyerite]

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1527715-comite-petista-ja-cogita-aceno-de-dilma-a-marina.shtml

Google translate is not that that great.  But from I can gather from this, Rousseff’s PT considers approaching silva

Exactly. That's not a bad bet, considering the PSB has a strong "old left" wing which is still very close to the PT. The "new left" of the PSB would probably prefer going with the PSDB.

Then again, Marina is not from the PSB. And Dilma slammed Marina so hard that I doubt her pride will allow her making mends with Dilma.

Yeah, what Alckmin did for the future of the PSDB today is just incredible. If Aécio doesn't win this election, I'm almost sure Alckmin will be their candidate in 2018 now.

[jaichind]

Looks like the results will be Rousseff 41% Neves 34%

[Double Carpet]

Having a quick scout around some of the state results for President, does anyone have any idea why Silva increased by 30 points in Pernambuco to win the state, but fell back 6 points in the Federal District?

Are there any other states where the R1 2014 result is vastly different to R1 2010?

Very broadly, we're looking at a swing of about 3 points from the PT to the PSDB?

Thanks

[Niemeyerite]

Having a quick scout around some of the state results for President, does anyone have any idea why Silva increased by 30 points in Pernambuco to win the state, but fell back 6 points in the Federal District?

Are there any other states where the R1 2014 result is vastly different to R1 2010?

Very broadly, we're looking at a swing of about 3 points from the PT to the PSDB?

Thanks

To your first question: the answer is Eduardo Campos.
To your 2nd question: Acre, DF, Pernambuco.
To your 3rd question: I think so.

[Paleobrazilian]

As more polls are counted in the Northeast Aecio drops to 33,96%. Getting Marina's support will be crucial for him. Fernando Henrique Cardoso has personally taken on this challenge.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Runoff prediction time!


Aécio: 50%
Dilma: 46%


BREAKING NEWS

December 31, 2014

(Brasília) President-elect Aécio Neves (PSDB-Minas) suddenly died on eve of his inauguration, after a two-months wild spree of celebrating his election. No official determination was made, but the source close to the PSDB headquarters indicates Aécio's ego exploded, rupturing his inside. Poor man had no chance, the source commented.

Vice President-elect Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-São Paulo) is set to fill Aécio's term instead.

Speaking of his longtime political mentor's passing, Senator Antonio Anastasia recalled: Aécio always wanted to be just like his grandpa.

[jaichind]

Runoff prediction time!


Aécio: 50%
Dilma: 46%


BREAKING NEWS

December 31, 2014

(Brasília) President-elect Aécio Neves (PSDB-Minas) suddenly died on eve of his inauguration, after a two-months wild spree of celebrating his election. No official determination was made, but the source close to the PSDB headquarters indicates Aécio's ego exploded, rupturing his inside. Poor man had no chance, the source commented.

Vice President-elect Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-São Paulo) is set to fill Aécio's term instead.

Speaking of his longtime political mentor's passing, Senator Antonio Anastasia recalled: Aécio always wanted to be just like his grandpa.

Should not the vote shares of the two add up to 100% by definition.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Runoff prediction time!


Aécio: 50%
Dilma: 46%


BREAKING NEWS

December 31, 2014

(Brasília) President-elect Aécio Neves (PSDB-Minas) suddenly died on eve of his inauguration, after a two-months wild spree of celebrating his election. No official determination was made, but the source close to the PSDB headquarters indicates Aécio's ego exploded, rupturing his inside. Poor man had no chance, the source commented.

Vice President-elect Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-São Paulo) is set to fill Aécio's term instead.

Speaking of his longtime political mentor's passing, Senator Antonio Anastasia recalled: Aécio always wanted to be just like his grandpa.

Should not the vote shares of the two add up to 100% by definition.

Aren't blank votes counted?

[Paleobrazilian]

Runoff prediction time!


Aécio: 50%
Dilma: 46%


BREAKING NEWS

December 31, 2014

(Brasília) President-elect Aécio Neves (PSDB-Minas) suddenly died on eve of his inauguration, after a two-months wild spree of celebrating his election. No official determination was made, but the source close to the PSDB headquarters indicates Aécio's ego exploded, rupturing his inside. Poor man had no chance, the source commented.

Vice President-elect Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-São Paulo) is set to fill Aécio's term instead.

Speaking of his longtime political mentor's passing, Senator Antonio Anastasia recalled: Aécio always wanted to be just like his grandpa.

Should not the vote shares of the two add up to 100% by definition.

Aren't blank votes counted?

No.

[Paleobrazilian]

Aecio Neves gets his first important endorsement: Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB-PE). He'll try to convince Marina to join Aecio.

[jaichind]

 
                     Dilma       Aécio       Marina      Counted
                     Rousseff    Neves       Silva       votes
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall:             41%         34%         21%         98%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Acre                 31%         31%         37%         57%
Alagoas             53%         21%         24%         82%
Amapá               51%         26%         20%         99%
Amazonas          54%         20%         22%         99%
Bahia                61%         18%         19%         92%
Ceará                68%         15%         14%         99%
Espírito Santo     33%         35%         29%         100%
Goiás                32%         42%         24%         100%
Maranhão          69%         12%         17%         99%
Mato Grosso       39%         45%         14%         98%
Mato Grossol      38%         19%         41%         100%
       do Su
Minas Gerais      44%         40%         14%         99%
Pará                  53%         28%         16%         98%
Paraíba              56%         23%         19%         99%
Paraná               33%         50%         14%         100%
Pernambuco       44%         6%          48%         94%
Piauí                  71%         14%         14%         90%
Rio de Janeiro     36%         27%         31%         100%
Rio Grande         61%         20%         17%         91%
     do Norte
Rio Grande        43%         41%         12%         100%
     do Sul
Rondônia            42%         45%         10%         99%
Roraima             34%         44%         18%         87%
Santa Catarina    31%         53%         13%         100%
São Paulo           26%         44%         25%         98%
Sergipe              55%         23%         19%         98%
Tocantins           50%         28%         21%         100%
Exterior             19%         49%         26%         95%
 

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina Silva has started her concession speech.

[jaichind]

In the end all Silva got was barely better than 2010 and she had the advantage of PSB being behind her.  This feels a lot like the UK Liberal Democrats of 2010. 

[Paleobrazilian]

It's noteworthy that minor candidates grew up a lot this year. Luciana Genro (PSOL), Eduardo Jorge (PV), Rev. Everaldo (PSC) and Levy Fidelix combined for over 3% of the votes.

[jaichind]

It looks like Neves is already trying to butter up Silva in his speech.

[jaichind]

My understanding was that Rousseff was able to unleash a large media attack on Silva which now it seems to have worked, perhaps too well.  This seems only possible with a large financial advantage of the Rousseff campaign.  I wonder if she can replicate this against Neves.  What is the financial resource gap between Rousseff and Neves ?

[Paleobrazilian]

My understanding was that Rousseff was able to unleash a large media attack on Silva which now it seems to have worked, perhaps too well.  This seems only possible with a large financial advantage of the Rousseff campaign.  I wonder if she can replicate this against Neves.  What is the financial resource gap between Rousseff and Neves ?

Aecio actually can fundraise more than Dilma. He's the candidate of the financial market.

[Paleobrazilian]

Here's the political map of São Paulo. Alckmin has carried all cities of the state and most of them with over 50% of the votes.



Edit: Alckmin has lost ONE city on the entire State, the city of Hortolândia, a small, working class city on the Greater Campinas area that usually votes PT. Padilha won there.

[Hash]

Where did you get that map?