Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[buritobr]

Exit poll in Rio Grande do Sul

Sartori (backing Aécio) 58%
Tarso Genro (backing Dilma) 42%

The yestersay poll predicted 60-40 to Sartori.
Not so relevant, but good news for Dilma

[Paleobrazilian]

Polls at the areas under Brasilia time (the Federal District + Goiás + South and Southeast states) close at the top of the hour.

So polls close 5pm local time right ?  Is the reason why the election is extended out to 8pm Brasilia time because of places like Rio Branco  ?

Yes.

[Paleobrazilian]

With 42% of the votes counted Rollemberg (PSB) is up 54% x 46% and will probably be elected Governor of the Federal District in a few minutes. Abstention there is low (around 12%), good news for Aecio who should run well there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link for the results?

[Paleobrazilian]

Exit poll in Rio Grande do Sul

Sartori (backing Aécio) 58%
Tarso Genro (backing Dilma) 42%

The yestersay poll predicted 60-40 to Sartori.
Not so relevant, but good news for Dilma

With 13% of polls counted Sartori has over 64% of the voting. Tarso Genro is getting santorumized, lol.

[jaichind]

Lets say Aecio manages to win. How will be able to deal with a pro-PT coalition majority in the National Congress.  Will he able to peal off various parties like PMDB, PSD, PP, PR, and PRB to have them join a PSDB alliance ? It always struck me as weird that parties like PP and PR which I view as more right wing are allied with PT.  

[Paleobrazilian]

Link for the results?

http://divulga.tse.jus.br/oficial/index.html

[Edu]

I'm hoping for an Aecio win. It would hopefully give a boost to the opposition over here.

[Paleobrazilian]

High abstention so far. Rio, where Dilma should have an important win, should be a concern for her right now.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Lets say Aecio manages to win. How will be able to deal with a pro-PT coalition majority in the National Congress.  Will he able to peal off various parties like PMDB, PSD, PP, PR, and PRB to have them join a PSDB alliance ?

IIRC correctly PMDB used to be in PSDB alliance under Cardoso, supporting Serra in 2002, so I wouldn't worry about their "coalition-making abilities"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, that's Brazilian politics.

[Hash]

The PR/PP aren't right-wing. They're corrupt whores.

[Kraxner]

Marconi Perillo got 53% in 2010 and Serra won in Goias with barely 50.75%.

So Hopefully this 58-61% Percent for Perillo this time will also pull Aecio up as well.

[Paleobrazilian]

Aecio will run well there, I'd expect some 55% of the votes. Abstention in Goiás is up significantly right now, so the big question is whether this is coming from big cities like Goiania and Anapolis (where Aecio will open significant margins) or from the vast rural areas from the rest of the state (where Dilma should win by large margins).

[Lurker]

Question

Are the results of the presidential election only announced when all the votes are counted? I.e., we get to know the results of all precincts/districts at the same time?

[Paleobrazilian]

Question

Are the results of the presidential election only announced when all the votes are counted? I.e., we get to know the results of all precincts/districts at the same time?

No. What happens is that Brazil has 4 time zones, but due to daylight saving time there are in fact 5 times zones. One of those time zones, where the Fernando de Noronha island is located, is pretty much irrelevant because it's GMT -2 while Brasília is GMT -3. Due to daylight saving time, voting will only conclude at 8 PM in Acre and western Amazonas, and only then TSE can start releasing federal results. The votes for the presidential election are already being counted, but they cannot be released until then.

[Paleobrazilian]

Reinaldo Azambuja (PSDB) will be elected Governor of Mato Grosso do Sul. Really happy for him, he seems to be a very good politician and a good guy overall, with a big future in the party.

[jaichind]

A prediction I am going to make is that as soon as polls close at 8PM Brasilia time and results of votes counted so far are released, Aecio will be in the lead.  It is possible that he will lose that lead as votes from the North and North-east comes in but he should be in the lead for the paces where the polls have closed for a while.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that in Pará, Barbalho is behind 53.4% vs 46.6% with 56% of the votes counted when in the first round there was a clear center-left majority votes in the first round.  My understanding is that Pará is sort of a swing state.   

[Paleobrazilian]

Pará is leans-PT I'd say. The ultimate swing state is probably Minas Gerais.

[Paleobrazilian]

A prediction I am going to make is that as soon as polls close at 8PM Brasilia time and results of votes counted so far are released, Aecio will be in the lead.  It is possible that he will lose that lead as votes from the North and North-east comes in but he should be in the lead for the paces where the polls have closed for a while.

Over 75% of the presidential ballots have been counted already. This election will probably be called exactly at the top of the hour.

[jaichind]

A prediction I am going to make is that as soon as polls close at 8PM Brasilia time and results of votes counted so far are released, Aecio will be in the lead.  It is possible that he will lose that lead as votes from the North and North-east comes in but he should be in the lead for the paces where the polls have closed for a while.

Over 75% of the presidential ballots have been counted already. This election will probably be called exactly at the top of the hour.

Is it not possible that with 75% counted there is a small Aecio lead and it is not possible to call the election ? Of course if Aecio is behind when the 75% result comes out we should be able to call it for Dilma. 

[jaichind]

Exit poll in Rio Grande do Sul

Sartori (backing Aécio) 58%
Tarso Genro (backing Dilma) 42%

The yestersay poll predicted 60-40 to Sartori.
Not so relevant, but good news for Dilma

Sartori wins with around 61.2% of the vote.  I guess in theory based on what you indicate above this is a slight bad news for Dilma.

[Hash]

A bit less than 85% of all precincts have been counted nationally, with 40 minutes to final poll closing time. Unless the election is Florida 2000-redux, it should be a clear and irreversible lead.

[buritobr]

3 minutes

95% of the votes already processed

[jaichind]

I just read that 90% of the ballots have been counted.  If so then I guess at 8pm it is very likely we can make a call.