Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[buritobr]

Datafolha February 20th, 2014

First round

Dilma Roussef 47%
Aécio Neves 17%
Eduardo Campos 12%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 54%
Aécio Neves 27%

Dilma Roussef 55%
Eduardo Campos 23%


Views on Dilma Roussef administration

41% Good/Very good
37% Regular
21% Bad/Very bad

[Sec. of State Superique]

The numbers of White and NOTA aboves has been increasing significantly and this is sort of dangerous. Any vote that comes as a White Vote or as a NOTA will not be considered a valid vote. If this sort of vote doesn't reduce, Dilma will be the fist PT candidate to be elected in the first round.

However, I feel that we are going to see a strong PSOL candidature due to those very same NOTA in the Urban Centers. I could see them winning something around 5% to 11%.

[buritobr]

PSOL candidate will be Randolfe. He is not much known as Heloísa Helena or Plínio de Arruda Sampaio. Even the left doesn't like him very much.
He is mentioned by less than 1% in the polls.

However, I think that there will be runoff because Dilma is close to her ceiling. She has more votes than approval rate.

[buritobr]

Datafolha April 3th

Dilma Roussef 38%
Aécio Neves 16%
Eduardo Campos 10%
Pastor Everaldo 2%
Others 4%
None 20%
Don't know 9%

Runoff

Dilma Roussef 51%
Aécio Neves 31%

Dilma Roussef 50%
Eduardo Campos 27%


Dilma Roussef Job Rating

Good/Very good 36%
Regular 39%
Bad/Very bad 25%

[Tieteobserver]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

[Niemeyerite]

Olavo de Carvalho is a joke and even my family, full of conservatives, ackowledges that. Are you Olavo, or what?

[Tieteobserver]

Olavo de Carvalho is a joke and even my family, full of conservatives, ackowledges that. Are you Olavo, or what?

Sakamoto is a joke. Not Olavo.

And no, of course I'm not him.

[buritobr]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

This guy is not serious

Many brazilians who did not participate in the "guerrilha" and engaged in a peaceful resistance against the military regime were killed

Édson Luís and some other students were killed by the riot police in 1968
Rubens Paiva, a famous left-wing polician, was disappeared in 1971
Wladmir Herzog, a journalist, was tortured and killed in 1975
Manuel Fiel Filho, a steelworker, was tortured and killed in 1975, only because he was suspicious of being a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Pedro Pomar was killed in 1976 because he was a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Many natives were killed during the construction of a highway in the middle of the Amazon Forest
A bomb letter, sent by far-right terrorists, supporters of the regime, killed three members of the Association of Brazilian Lawyers in 1980

And many other journalists and political activies were arrested and tortured, many artists and academic had to live abroad


So, the sentence "The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities." is completely false.

Besides, most of the activities of the guerrilha groups that opposed the military regime cannot be defined as "terrorism". Their target were policemen, soldiers, foreign diplomats and banks. The civilian population was not target of these groups.

[Tieteobserver]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

This guy is not serious

Many brazilians who did not participate in the "guerrilha" and engaged in a peaceful resistance against the military regime were killed

Édson Luís and some other students were killed by the riot police in 1968
Rubens Paiva, a famous left-wing polician, was disappeared in 1971
Wladmir Herzog, a journalist, was tortured and killed in 1975
Manuel Fiel Filho, a steelworker, was tortured and killed in 1975, only because he was suspicious of being a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Pedro Pomar was killed in 1976 because he was a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Many natives were killed during the construction of a highway in the middle of the Amazon Forest
A bomb letter, sent by far-right terrorists, supporters of the regime, killed three members of the Association of Brazilian Lawyers in 1980

And many other journalists and political activies were arrested and tortured, many artists and academic had to live abroad


So, the sentence "The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities." is completely false.

Besides, most of the activities of the guerrilha groups that opposed the military regime cannot be defined as "terrorism". Their target were policemen, soldiers, foreign diplomats and banks. The civilian population was not target of these groups.

Negligible numbers of innocent people were prosecuted by the military government government, thats true. On that time, on the other hand, the homicide rate was much lower. There was law and order, and no gun control. Point is: whilst a very few people were possibly prosecuted by the military government, the Pasquim was sold everywhere and other left-wing publications were free to circulate. Even censorship wasn't that horrible: except for news pertaining to guerrilha related activities, censorship was negligible.

And you are the one joking here. Targeting banks is not terrorism? Killing innocent people on these attacks is not terrorism? Attacking ambassadors is not terrorism? By this hilarious definition of terrorism, the plane which hit the Pentagon wasn't engaged on terrorist activities. The attack upon the American Embassy in Iran in 1979, also, wasn't a terrorist act.

[MaxQue]

The only thing I'm seeing here is apologism of a dictature, which usually isn't allowed or tolerated here.

[Niemeyerite]

The only thing I'm seeing here is apologism of a dictature, which usually isn't allowed or tolerated here.

Yeah, this guy is basically saying: "our dictature wasn't that bad. Conservative christians and obedient people had nothing to fear about" which is laughable, sad and dangerous at the same time.

[Hash]

The only thing I'm seeing here is apologism of a dictature, which usually isn't allowed or tolerated here.

Don't worry, we're watching this thread and if it gets too out of hand or the comments get horrendous, I'll take necessary action.

[Tieteobserver]

The only thing I'm seeing here is apologism of a dictature, which usually isn't allowed or tolerated here.

Go look on a dictionary for the definition of the word "dictatorship". Then try finding anything similar to this on my posts.

I was just exposing a fact: the military government got rid of our Right-Wing, paving the way for the Left-Wing to go almost unchallenged in the last 3 decades.

In case you still doubt:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/04/politics-brazil

[Tieteobserver]

The only thing I'm seeing here is apologism of a dictature, which usually isn't allowed or tolerated here.

Yeah, this guy is basically saying: "our dictature wasn't that bad. Conservative christians and obedient people had nothing to fear about" which is laughable, sad and dangerous at the same time.

When did I say that? In fact, what was said was that the LEFTISTS not involved with guerrilha had very little to fear. Junkies, criminal, terrorists, etc, are the ones who HAD something to fear. On the other hand, Carlos Lacerda was prosecuted.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHeVUBIJ0g8

[Enno von Loewenstern]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

This guy is not serious

Many brazilians who did not participate in the "guerrilha" and engaged in a peaceful resistance against the military regime were killed

Édson Luís and some other students were killed by the riot police in 1968
Rubens Paiva, a famous left-wing polician, was disappeared in 1971
Wladmir Herzog, a journalist, was tortured and killed in 1975
Manuel Fiel Filho, a steelworker, was tortured and killed in 1975, only because he was suspicious of being a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Pedro Pomar was killed in 1976 because he was a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Many natives were killed during the construction of a highway in the middle of the Amazon Forest
A bomb letter, sent by far-right terrorists, supporters of the regime, killed three members of the Association of Brazilian Lawyers in 1980

And many other journalists and political activies were arrested and tortured, many artists and academic had to live abroad


So, the sentence "The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities." is completely false.

Besides, most of the activities of the guerrilha groups that opposed the military regime cannot be defined as "terrorism". Their target were policemen, soldiers, foreign diplomats and banks. The civilian population was not target of these groups.

Negligible numbers of innocent people were prosecuted by the military government government, thats true. On that time, on the other hand, the homicide rate was much lower. There was law and order, and no gun control. Point is: whilst a very few people were possibly prosecuted by the military government, the Pasquim was sold everywhere and other left-wing publications were free to circulate. Even censorship wasn't that horrible: except for news pertaining to guerrilha related activities, censorship was negligible.

And you are the one joking here. Targeting banks is not terrorism? Killing innocent people on these attacks is not terrorism? Attacking ambassadors is not terrorism? By this hilarious definition of terrorism, the plane which hit the Pentagon wasn't engaged on terrorist activities. The attack upon the American Embassy in Iran in 1979, also, wasn't a terrorist act.

I find it very interesting to read from a conservative Brazilian. This can be a fertile ground for debate and show another perspective. Could you give us a brief overview of how the brazilian conservatives and right wingers are organized? Which parties do they prefer and vote for, are there regional strong holds and why - from your point of view - they are so marginalized? And could compare your nations situation with for example Chile, Argentina or Paraguay? I look forward to your point of view.

Since I'm relatively new to this forum, it is not to me to express myself to strongly about the forum rules, but I think we should not be to narrow minded and politically correct here. Having said all that, I bow my head, of course, before the leader of the forum.

[buritobr]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

This guy is not serious

Many brazilians who did not participate in the "guerrilha" and engaged in a peaceful resistance against the military regime were killed

Édson Luís and some other students were killed by the riot police in 1968
Rubens Paiva, a famous left-wing polician, was disappeared in 1971
Wladmir Herzog, a journalist, was tortured and killed in 1975
Manuel Fiel Filho, a steelworker, was tortured and killed in 1975, only because he was suspicious of being a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Pedro Pomar was killed in 1976 because he was a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Many natives were killed during the construction of a highway in the middle of the Amazon Forest
A bomb letter, sent by far-right terrorists, supporters of the regime, killed three members of the Association of Brazilian Lawyers in 1980

And many other journalists and political activies were arrested and tortured, many artists and academic had to live abroad


So, the sentence "The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities." is completely false.

Besides, most of the activities of the guerrilha groups that opposed the military regime cannot be defined as "terrorism". Their target were policemen, soldiers, foreign diplomats and banks. The civilian population was not target of these groups.

Negligible numbers of innocent people were prosecuted by the military government government, thats true. On that time, on the other hand, the homicide rate was much lower. There was law and order, and no gun control. Point is: whilst a very few people were possibly prosecuted by the military government, the Pasquim was sold everywhere and other left-wing publications were free to circulate. Even censorship wasn't that horrible: except for news pertaining to guerrilha related activities, censorship was negligible.

And you are the one joking here. Targeting banks is not terrorism? Killing innocent people on these attacks is not terrorism? Attacking ambassadors is not terrorism? By this hilarious definition of terrorism, the plane which hit the Pentagon wasn't engaged on terrorist activities. The attack upon the American Embassy in Iran in 1979, also, wasn't a terrorist act.

I find it very interesting to read from a conservative Brazilian. This can be a fertile ground for debate and show another perspective. Could you give us a brief overview of how the brazilian conservatives and right wingers are organized? Which parties do they prefer and vote for, are there regional strong holds and why - from your point of view - they are so marginalized? And could compare your nations situation with for example Chile, Argentina or Paraguay? I look forward to your point of view.

Since I'm relatively new to this forum, it is not to me to express myself to strongly about the forum rules, but I think we should not be to narrow minded and politically correct here. Having said all that, I bow my head, of course, before the leader of the forum.

The right-wing party that backed the military regime was splited into two parties in 1985: the Progressive Party (PP) and the Liberal Front (PFL). Both are very small parties now. They are members of the old right, supported by rural oligarchs and old military officers.

The new right, composed by business associations and mass media, is not very well represented by the Brazilian party system, but they prefer the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). This party was founded by moderate opponents of the military regime, who were center-left when they were young and became centrist or center-right when they became older. Despite the name, PSDB is not a social democratic party. One of the founders, Franco Montoro, admitted that he was a christian democrat and not a social democrat.

PSDB is the party of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, president of Brazil between 1995 and 2002. Cardoso built a coalition between PSDB and PFL. Although he was a leftist academic in the 1960s, his admistration implemented free-market policies, like privatization and de-regulation.

Nowadays, young supporters of free-market policies join PSDB, although this party was considered a center-left party in its early days. They dislike the parties of the military regime (PP and PFL) because the military regime implemented a state-led capitalist development model.

There are many conservatives that do not feel represented by any party. They dislike the Brazilian party system and rely on conservative think thanks like "Instituto Millenium" and on Internet propaganda. They are very active in online discussion foruns and in the comments pages of the News websites.

The conservatives don't need to be strong opponents of Dilma Roussef administration, because they are well represented in this administration. Dilma's Workers Party (PT) and the Communist Party (PCdoB) are minority in the Congress. She needs support of conservative parties. That's why they have some ministries.

In the average, the Brazilians are more conservative than Americans and much more conservative than Europeans in social, religious, cultural and moral issues. And they are more progressive than Americans in economic issues. Social, religious, cultural and moral issues do not have big influence in the elections. That's why most of the Brazilian poor people are social conservative and voted for Lula and Dilma. Her administration will not try to legalize abortion. PT is one of the few left-wing parties in the world that does not have a consensus supporting abortion legalization. There are pro-life and pro-choice members in the party.

Although most of the Brazilians are more inclined to the left in economic issues, there is an importante school of economics supporting small government in the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Most of the mass media support "small government" and free market. Most of its readers belong to the top rich 20% of the population.

[buritobr]

After a month of very bad news for Dilma Roussef


7th and 8th May

Dilma Roussef 37%
Aécio Neves 20%
Eduardo Campos 11%
Pastor Everaldo 3%
Randolfe Rodrigues 1%
Others 3%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 47%
Aécio Neves 36%

Dilma Roussef 49%
Eduardo Campos 32%

[Famous Mortimer]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

This guy is not serious

Many brazilians who did not participate in the "guerrilha" and engaged in a peaceful resistance against the military regime were killed

Édson Luís and some other students were killed by the riot police in 1968
Rubens Paiva, a famous left-wing polician, was disappeared in 1971
Wladmir Herzog, a journalist, was tortured and killed in 1975
Manuel Fiel Filho, a steelworker, was tortured and killed in 1975, only because he was suspicious of being a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Pedro Pomar was killed in 1976 because he was a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Many natives were killed during the construction of a highway in the middle of the Amazon Forest
A bomb letter, sent by far-right terrorists, supporters of the regime, killed three members of the Association of Brazilian Lawyers in 1980

And many other journalists and political activies were arrested and tortured, many artists and academic had to live abroad


So, the sentence "The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities." is completely false.

Besides, most of the activities of the guerrilha groups that opposed the military regime cannot be defined as "terrorism". Their target were policemen, soldiers, foreign diplomats and banks. The civilian population was not target of these groups.

Negligible numbers of innocent people were prosecuted by the military government government, thats true. On that time, on the other hand, the homicide rate was much lower. There was law and order, and no gun control. Point is: whilst a very few people were possibly prosecuted by the military government, the Pasquim was sold everywhere and other left-wing publications were free to circulate. Even censorship wasn't that horrible: except for news pertaining to guerrilha related activities, censorship was negligible.

And you are the one joking here. Targeting banks is not terrorism? Killing innocent people on these attacks is not terrorism? Attacking ambassadors is not terrorism? By this hilarious definition of terrorism, the plane which hit the Pentagon wasn't engaged on terrorist activities. The attack upon the American Embassy in Iran in 1979, also, wasn't a terrorist act.

I find it very interesting to read from a conservative Brazilian. This can be a fertile ground for debate and show another perspective. Could you give us a brief overview of how the brazilian conservatives and right wingers are organized? Which parties do they prefer and vote for, are there regional strong holds and why - from your point of view - they are so marginalized? And could compare your nations situation with for example Chile, Argentina or Paraguay? I look forward to your point of view.

Since I'm relatively new to this forum, it is not to me to express myself to strongly about the forum rules, but I think we should not be to narrow minded and politically correct here. Having said all that, I bow my head, of course, before the leader of the forum.

The right-wing party that backed the military regime was splited into two parties in 1985: the Progressive Party (PP) and the Liberal Front (PFL). Both are very small parties now. They are members of the old right, supported by rural oligarchs and old military officers.

The new right, composed by business associations and mass media, is not very well represented by the Brazilian party system, but they prefer the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). This party was founded by moderate opponents of the military regime, who were center-left when they were young and became centrist or center-right when they became older. Despite the name, PSDB is not a social democratic party. One of the founders, Franco Montoro, admitted that he was a christian democrat and not a social democrat.

PSDB is the party of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, president of Brazil between 1995 and 2002. Cardoso built a coalition between PSDB and PFL. Although he was a leftist academic in the 1960s, his admistration implemented free-market policies, like privatization and de-regulation.

Nowadays, young supporters of free-market policies join PSDB, although this party was considered a center-left party in its early days. They dislike the parties of the military regime (PP and PFL) because the military regime implemented a state-led capitalist development model.

There are many conservatives that do not feel represented by any party. They dislike the Brazilian party system and rely on conservative think thanks like "Instituto Millenium" and on Internet propaganda. They are very active in online discussion foruns and in the comments pages of the News websites.

The conservatives don't need to be strong opponents of Dilma Roussef administration, because they are well represented in this administration. Dilma's Workers Party (PT) and the Communist Party (PCdoB) are minority in the Congress. She needs support of conservative parties. That's why they have some ministries.

In the average, the Brazilians are more conservative than Americans and much more conservative than Europeans in social, religious, cultural and moral issues. And they are more progressive than Americans in economic issues. Social, religious, cultural and moral issues do not have big influence in the elections. That's why most of the Brazilian poor people are social conservative and voted for Lula and Dilma. Her administration will not try to legalize abortion. PT is one of the few left-wing parties in the world that does not have a consensus supporting abortion legalization. There are pro-life and pro-choice members in the party.

Although most of the Brazilians are more inclined to the left in economic issues, there is an importante school of economics supporting small government in the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Most of the mass media support "small government" and free market. Most of its readers belong to the top rich 20% of the population.

That's not true about abortion. Plenty (most?) left-wing parties in Latin America don't support legalized abortion. The United Socialist Party in Venezuela doesn't. The Sandinistas don't. Correa doesn't. I don't think Kirchner does either but I could be wrong about that one only.

[buritobr]

Sure. That's why I told that the Workers Party is one of the few left-wing parties which do not support abortion legalization as a party (there are some politicians in the party who support, but there is no party statement concerning this issue).
But it is not the only one. Some other left-wing parties in Latin America do not support abortion legalization.

But there are others which support. Pepe Mujica legalized abortion in Uruguay. The PRD legalized abortion in México City.

[buritobr]

Datafolha, 3th-5th June

First Round

Dilma Roussef 34%
Aécio Neves 19%
Eduardo Campos 7%
Pastor Everaldo 4%

Other 5%

None 17%
Don't know 13%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 46%
Aécio Neves 38%

Dilma Roussef 47%
Eduardo Campos 32%


Dilma Job Aproval

Good/Very Good 33%
Regular 38%
Bad/Very Bad 28%


This is the last poll before the World Cup, which will take place between June 12th and July 13th. Problably, these numbers will not change in the next 40 days, because the country will be more focused on the World Cup. Only after July 13th, the campaign will really start.
But if protests during the World Cup become violent, Dilma will be harmed. Ironically, protests organized by the far-left can help the center-right opponent in the campaign against the center-left incumbent.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm pretty sure a runoff is unavoidable. The only times it didn't happen were 1994 and 1998 and Cardoso's popularity was, in long term, kind of fluke. Even Lula, with his great popularity in 2006, had to face Chu-Chu (and annihilate him). Also, IIRC up until last weeks Dilma was thought to win in the first round, just to face Serra again.

That being said, I really don't see the Plastic Man from Minas winning this election, Dilma's current troubles nowwithstanding.

(Though I admit: I lost touch with Brazilian politics recently )

[buritobr]

I am sure that there will be runoff. Dilma's approval rate is much bellow 50%. It is very hard for someone who consider her administration "regular" vote for her in the first round.

[buritobr]

The national conventions of the parties took place in June. Today, it was the deadline for the parties to subscribe their candidates in the electoral justice. So, the candidates are officially defined. There are 11 candidates:

Dilma Roussef
Minister during Lula administration (2003-2010), president since 2011 looking for reelection
Party: PT (Workers Party)
Ideology: Center left
Vice: Michel Temer, not a member of PT but of PMDB, a centrist party backing Dilma
Last polls: Between 34% and 39%

Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration, governor of the state of Minas Gerais (2003-2010) and now, senator of this state
Party: PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party)
Ideology: Center right, New Public Management (don't consider the name of the party)
Vice: Aloysio Nunes, senator of the state of São Paulo. Like Dilma Roussef, participated in the left-wing guerrilha against the military dictatorship, but unlike Dilma, became a conservative after getting old
Last polls: Between 19% and 20%

Eduardo Campos
Minister of Science and Technology during Lula administration (2004-2005), governor of the state of Pernambuco (2007-2014)
Party: PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party)
Ideology: Center (don't consider the name of the party)
Vice: Marina Silva, Minister of Environment during Lula administration (2003-2008), Green Party candidate in 2010, had 19% of the vote
Last polls: 11%

Pastor Everaldo
Party: PSC (Christian Social Party)
Ideology: Evangelical Right
Last polls: 3%

Eduardo Jorge
Party: PV (Green Party)
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Luciana Genro
Party: PSOL (Party of Socialism and Freedom)
Ideology: left, the party was founded by former PT members who consider that PT became too centrist
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Zé Maria
Party: PSTU (Unified Workers Socialist Party)
Ideology: far left, trotskyism
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Mauro Iasi
Party: PCB (Brazilian Communist Party)
Ideology: far left. This is a small communist party. The bigger one, the Communist Party from Brazil (PCdoB), which is another party, is backing Dilma Roussef
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Levy Fidelix
Party: PRTB
Ideology: Right
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

José Maria Eymael
Party: PSDC (Social Democratic Christian Party)
Ideology: Right
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Rui Costa Pimenta
Party: PCO (Party of the Labor Cause)
Ideology: far left, trotskyism
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%


The campaign may start tomorrow. However, the campaign will not be important before July 13th, the day of the final of the World Cup. After that, the campaign will receive full atention.

The first round will take place in October 5th. There is no doubt that Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves will go to the runoff, which will take place in October 26th. The other candidates have no chances. Probably, most of the Eduardo Campos and Pastor Everaldo voters will vote for Aécio Neves in the second round. However, the polls show an advantage for Dilma Roussef in the first round, and these aditional votes for Aécio might be not enough.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration

I believe Neves died over a month after his set inauguration, but, due to illness, was not able to take an oath, resulting in Sarney becoming Acting President upon being sworn-in as Vice President. Nevertheless, Neves is officially counted as 30th President of Brazil out of courtesy. Some sources lists his term as from March 15 to April 21, 1985, when he was incapacitated, though most lists him as unable to assume office, even formally.

[buritobr]

Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration

I believe Neves died over a month after his set inauguration, but, due to illness, was not able to take an oath, resulting in Sarney becoming Acting President upon being sworn-in as Vice President. Nevertheless, Neves is officially counted as 30th President of Brazil out of courtesy. Some sources lists his term as from March 15 to April 21, 1985, when he was incapacitated, though most lists him as unable to assume office, even formally.

Sure

The innauguration of Tancredo Neves was scheduled to March 15, 1985. He became sick and had to go to the hospital on March 14. And then, he never assumed office. He died on April 21. Vice presidente Sarney assumed office as a provisory president on March 15 and became the definitive president on April 21.
The constitution was ignored. Since the elected president did not assume office, the elected vice president could not have assumed as the president, because the vice could not substitute someone that has never been the president. If the constitution were respected, the president of the Chamber of Deputies should have become the provisory president on March 15.


I should have written
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration that never happened

It would have explained better