Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[justfollowingtheelections]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

lol

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration

I believe Neves died over a month after his set inauguration, but, due to illness, was not able to take an oath, resulting in Sarney becoming Acting President upon being sworn-in as Vice President. Nevertheless, Neves is officially counted as 30th President of Brazil out of courtesy. Some sources lists his term as from March 15 to April 21, 1985, when he was incapacitated, though most lists him as unable to assume office, even formally.

Sure

The innauguration of Tancredo Neves was scheduled to March 15, 1985. He became sick and had to go to the hospital on March 14. And then, he never assumed office. He died on April 21. Vice presidente Sarney assumed office as a provisory president on March 15 and became the definitive president on April 21.
The constitution was ignored. Since the elected president did not assume office, the elected vice president could not have assumed as the president, because the vice could not substitute someone that has never been the president. If the constitution were respected, the president of the Chamber of Deputies should have become the provisory president on March 15.

Thanks I've always been confused about that issue.

[Simfan34]

I like that. "The constitution was ignored".

Well, yesterday's débâcle did not help Dilma.

[Simfan34]

Also I think the saying that the PSDB is a party of right wingers rather than a right wing party is pertinent considering the previous page's discussion.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like that. "The constitution was ignored".

Well, yesterday's débâcle did not help Dilma.

That's terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[RodPresident]

Plinio de Arruda Sampaio, 83, died yesterday after a bone cancer. He started in politics in Democratic Christian Party and was expelled from Congress by military coup in 1964. After amnesty, he joined Workers Party (PT) and served again in Congress and ran for São Paulo's governorship in 1990. In 2005, he switched parties and went to far-left Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL), running again for governorship in 2006. He gained national popularity during 2010 presidential campaign, where he was seen as "crazy funny old guy" who was very popular in social networks, but he gained only 0.87% of votes. RIP!

[buritobr]

I like that. "The constitution was ignored".

Well, yesterday's débâcle did not help Dilma.

Considering the last four presidential elections, there was no correlation between the result of the Brazilian National Team in the World Cup and the result of the election... ops, there was a clear correlation, in the opposite way.

In 1998, Brazil lost to France, 3-0, and presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso was re-elected. In 2002, Brazil won the World Cup and Lula, who was na oponent of Cardoso, was elected. In 2006, Brazil lost in the quarterfinal to France, and Lula was re-elected. In 2010, Brazil lost in the quarterfinal to Netherlands, and Dilma, backed by Lula, was elected.

The situation now is diferent, because conceding 7 goals at home became a national catastrophe. There was a big cricticism concerning hosting the World Cup, because 5 billion dollars were spent through state-owned bank loans in the 12 stadiums, including 4 located in cities that do not have Strong soccer teams, and so, these stadiums will not become profitable. There were also big concerns about security and the quality of the public transportation to the stadiums. None of the expected big problems occured during the event, and so, the public opinion became more optimistic about the benefits of hosting the World Cup. But maybe, after the defeat in the game against Germany, many Brazilians might pay more attention in the criticism concerning the organization of the World Cup.

The major incident that happened during the event was the fall of a bridge near Mineirão Stadium, in Belo Horizonte, where the game took place. This incident happened four days before the game. Belo Horizonte is the hometown of both Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves. The mayor of Belo Horizonte, who was in charge of building that bridge, is a political ally of Aécio Neves. The incident will probably not affect the election.

[Simfan34]

Also Aecio has declared that Sen. Aloysio Nunes (PSB-SP) will be his running mate. I know he ran with PSDB support last time, but what effect might this have? Sao Paulo is the PSDB's home base- Aecio is the first candidate not to come from there, yes?

[buritobr]

Also Aecio has declared that Sen. Aloysio Nunes (PSB-SP) will be his running mate. I know he ran with PSDB support last time, but what effect might this have? Sao Paulo is the PSDB's home base- Aecio is the first candidate not to come from there, yes?

No effect. São Paulo state is the home of PT and PSDB and has the lowest elasticity. There is a safe 30% for-PT and 45% anti-PT, and the remaining 25% are influenced by other issues than the home state of the candidate. The results of the last elections show that the "paulistas" do not care if a favorite son is running or not. In 1989, the PT candidate was Lula, from São Paulo, and the anti-PT candidate, Collor, (not PSDB yet) was not from São Paulo. In the runoff, Collor won in São Paulo 58:42. In 2010, the PT candidate was Dilma, not from São Paulo, and the anti-PT candidate, Serra, PSDB, was from São Paulo. Serra won in São Paulo 54:46, he had a smaller margin than Collor had.
Yes, Aécio is the first PSDB candidate whose home state is not São Paulo. Maybe, he chose Aloysio Nunes as his running mate in order to keep Peace with the PSDB leaders from São Paulo, the strongest ones. But I guess Aécio will win in São Paulo 55:45 no matter the running mate.

[Tender Branson]

Dilma's lead down to 4 points in a run-off scenario:

[buritobr]

The numbers of this poll

Runoff scenario

All
Dilma 44%, Aécio 40%

Gender
Male: Dilma 46%, Aécio 40%
Female: Dilma 42%, Aécio 41%

Age
16-24: Dilma 39%, Aécio 46%
25-34: Dilma 42%, Aécio 40%
35-44: Dilma 44%, Aécio 39%
45-59: Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%
60-: Dilma 48%, Aécio 36%

Education Level
Elementary: Dilma 54%, Aécio 31%
High School: Dilma 40%, Aécio 45%
College: Dilma 32%, Aécio 51%

Household Income
Less than 2 minimum wages: Dilma 52%, Aécio 33%
Between 2 and 5 minimum wages: Dilma 41%, Aécio 43%
Between 5 and 10 minimum wages: Dilma 31%, Aécio 56%
More than 10 minimum wages: Dilma 34%, Aécio 53%

Region
Southeast: Dilma 34%, Aécio 49%
South: Dilma 41%, Aécio 37%
Northeast: Dilma 60%, Aécio 28%
Center-West: Dilma 40%, Aécio 48%
North: Dilma 53%, Aécio 35%

Most important states (both located in the Southeast)
São Paulo: Dilma 31%, Aécio 50%
Rio de Janeiro: Dilma 42%, Aécio 39%

Location
Metropolitan Area: Dilma 41%, Aécio 42%
Countryside: Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%

City size
Less than 50k inhabitants: Dilma 50%, Aécio 37%
Between 50k and 200k inhabitants: Dilma 47%, Aécio 39%
Between 200k and 500k inhabitants: Dilma 40%, Aécio 44%
More than 500k inhabitants: Dilma 37%, Aécio 43%

Party identification
PT: Dilma 80%, Aécio 16%
PSDB: Dilma 13%, Aécio 81%
None: Dilma 39%, Aécio 41%

View on Dilma Administration
Good/Very good: Dilma 86%, Aécio 9%
Regular: Dilma 40%, Aécio 43%
Bad/Very bad: Dilma 4%, Aécio 73%

Vote in the first round
Eduardo Campos: Dilma 26%, Aécio 55%
Pastor Everaldo: Dilma 27%, Aécio 59%

Religion
Catholic: Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%
Petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 42%, Aécio 41%
Non-petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 38%, Aécio 48%
Kardecist: Dilma 29%, Aécio 45%
African Religions: Dilma 52%, Aécio 41%
No religion: Dilma 45%, Aécio 35%

Race
White: Dilma 39%, Aécio 44%
"Pardo" (half white, half black): Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%
Black: Dilma 50%, Aécio 34%
Asian: Dilma 40%, Aécio 51%
Native: Dilma 53%, Aécio 37%

[MaxQue]

Kardecist?

[buritobr]

Kardecist?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritism

3% of the Brazilian population is spiritualist (or Kardecist)

[politicus]

Kardecist?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritism

3% of the Brazilian population is spiritualist (or Kardecist)

That's pretty crazy.

[Zanas]

Kardecist?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritism

3% of the Brazilian population is spiritualist (or Kardecist)

That's pretty crazy.

Why is it crazier than believing there is a God ?

[buritobr]

Kardecist?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritism

3% of the Brazilian population is spiritualist (or Kardecist)

That's pretty crazy.

Why is it crazier than believing there is a God ?

No contradiction. Many spiritualists in Brazil are Christians at the same time. They believe there is a God, they believe that Jesus Christ is the son of God, they pray, and they believe in reincarnation.

[Simfan34]

Dilma's lead down to 4 points in a run-off scenario.

Glorious news.

[Simfan34]

Also Levy Fidelix and Eymael are still running? LOL.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the subject of Brazil, a famous (hilarious, brilliant, etc) attack on Brasilia.

[Simfan34]

The fact that Le Corbusier had as much effect on urban planning as he did was a tragedy for us all. The man who proposed the Plan Voisin deserved to be thrown in prison for it, not followed:

[Sol]

The fact that Le Corbusier had as much effect on urban planning as he did was a tragedy for us all. The man who proposed the Plan Voisin deserved to be thrown in prison for it, not followed:

What exactly did Le Corbusier do?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Modernist architects believed that architecture had the power to transform humanity for the better; that you could create utopia by designing the right kinds of buildings, because (they believed) rational built environments would result inevitably in rational behavior from the people who lived in them, and so society would progress. Le Corbusier was a particularly articulate and enthusiastic/fanatical example, and was thus extremely influential.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Isn't that in part the kind of thinking that Notes from the Underground was written as a reaction against?

[Paleobrazilian]

Eduardo Campos' plane has crashed in the city of Santos/SP. According to Globo News he has passed.

Unbelievable news. RIP Eduardo.

[Paleobrazilian]

7 passengers on board have passed, including Eduardo Campos and his staff. Unbelievable.