Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Niemeyerite]

Wow, unbelievable. RIP.

[Simfan34]

WTF? How?! Are we sure?

[jaichind]

The Bovespa exchange fell over 2% when the news came out on Campos' death.  It has mostly recovered.  I wonder Neves will now run?

[Simfan34]

Well, Neves was always running... Campos was the candidate of the PSB. I wonder if Marina will become their candidate now.

[Paleobrazilian]

Under federal law, the PSB and its colligation (formed by the PSB, the PPS and 4 minor parties) has 10 days to appoint a new presidential candidate. Marina Silva should be the favorite, but it's important to remember she's not trully from the PSB - she only joined the PSB because her party didn't get registration in time for this election.

If not her, the PSB could perhaps look into they bench in Congress. Perhaps an outsider, as Belo Horizonte's Mayor Marcio Lacerda. Perhaps Roberto Freire, PPS' president. Or perhaps they'll simply appoint nobody.

It's important to remember the PSB suffered a break-up a few months ago as some of its members (specially the Gomes brothers) wanted to stay as allies of the PT and were against Campos' candidacy. Some of those left the PSB and founded the pro-PT PROS, but a few of those remained in the PSB.

[Sec. of State Superique]

The death of Eduardo Campos was terribly shocking. He was a politician with a great potential and also a good record in office. I wasn't intending to vote on him but even so I was pretty sad to watch the news calling him dead. He was only 49, he has 5 children and that was for me the worst part of it. His family and Brazil didn't deserve such terrible situation... Now, regarding to political speculations, I believe that now is a very hard moment to think politically and surely PSB and their coalition will wait some days until they fully announce what they will do...

[buritobr]

That was a big tragedy, because seven human lives were lost and because Eduardo Campos was young (49 years old) and he could be a strong candidate in 2018 or 2022.

However, this tragedy has few impact in the 2014 election. The two major candidates are Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves, Eduardo Campos had only 10%. Since this forum is American, and so, many Americans read this forum, the best way to explain Campos' role in the 2014 presidential election is comparing him to John Anderson in the USA in 1980.


Problably, the candidate of the PSB coalition will be Marina Silva. It is possible for the coalition to choose another name, there is a 10 day deadline. But Marina Silva is the most famous one. She was candidate in 2010. She can have more votes than Eduardo Campos would have. The national commotion after the tragedy can help her.

However, I still think that the winner will be Dilma Roussef or Aécio Neves.

[Simfan34]

Campos was re-elected with something upwards of 80% of the vote in 2010, right? Around 85% or so. I mean, he was third, but who knows how strongly Marina will perform. I mean she could end up like Ciro in 2002; more hype than a true force in the end. But she might squeak into the second round, and who knows what would happen then...

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina Silva scares BOTH Dilma Rousseff and Aecio Neves. While there's no polling yet, I'd expect Marina Silva to be on an statistical tie with Aecio Neves, around 18% each, while Dilma gets around 35%. In fact, the tragedy could bring an even bigger bounce in favor of Marina, and even if Neves has more TV time and money on hand to spend, the national mood could make Marina the front-runner for the second spot in the runoff.

If Marina takes Campos's place, well... For Aecio Neves, this makes getting into the runoff quite tougher. If he makes the runoff, PSB's support could end up being a huge bun, although I don't think Marina would formally endorse him. Meanwhile, for Dilma, this basically kills any hope she had of getting a 1st round win, and potentially makes the runoff even more difficult. If Marina gets into the runoff, basically all votes for Neves will quickly migrate to Marina, and when you consider the votes for Reverend Everaldo and Eduardo Jorge, that should also migrate to Marina, those votes combined should probably be enough to defeat Dilma.

It's highly likely Marina Silva will head the ticket, according to most well informed sources. The problem is, Marina still displeases many on the PSB and would probably have to agree to endorse and campaign for candidates on statewide races she dislikes - as Geraldo Alckmin's reelection campaign in São Paulo and Lindberg Farias' campaign in Rio de Janeiro. It's important to remember that the PSB's national chairman, Marcio França, is running for Vice Governor on Geraldo Alckmin's ticket, and his opinion will be very important on this process.

If Marina Silva is indeed the candidate, it's speculated that Roberto Freire will be their VP candidate.

[buritobr]

Campos was re-elected with something upwards of 80% of the vote in 2010, right? Around 85% or so. I mean, he was third, but who knows how strongly Marina will perform. I mean she could end up like Ciro in 2002; more hype than a true force in the end. But she might squeak into the second round, and who knows what would happen then...

Campos was reelected governor of Pernambuco in 2010 with 80% of the vote in the first round. He was a very popular governor, but he was also helped because Lula and Dilma were backing him, and Lula was also very popular at that time.
The latest polls in 2014 in the state of Pernambuco showed a tie between Eduardo Campos and Dilma Roussef, both having ~40%. In the other Northeastern states, Dilma was leading with 50% and Campos had between 6% and 10%.
He would end like Ciro Gomes in 1998 and 2002. I don't know about Marina, because she is not a state politician, she is a national politician.

[buritobr]

Marina Silva scares BOTH Dilma Rousseff and Aecio Neves. While there's no polling yet, I'd expect Marina Silva to be on an statistical tie with Aecio Neves, around 18% each, while Dilma gets around 35%. In fact, the tragedy could bring an even bigger bounce in favor of Marina, and even if Neves has more TV time and money on hand to spend, the national mood could make Marina the front-runner for the second spot in the runoff.

If Marina takes Campos's place, well... For Aecio Neves, this makes getting into the runoff quite tougher. If he makes the runoff, PSB's support could end up being a huge bun, although I don't think Marina would formally endorse him. Meanwhile, for Dilma, this basically kills any hope she had of getting a 1st round win, and potentially makes the runoff even more difficult. If Marina gets into the runoff, basically all votes for Neves will quickly migrate to Marina, and when you consider the votes for Reverend Everaldo and Eduardo Jorge, that should also migrate to Marina, those votes combined should probably be enough to defeat Dilma.

It's highly likely Marina Silva will head the ticket, according to most well informed sources. The problem is, Marina still displeases many on the PSB and would probably have to agree to endorse and campaign for candidates on statewide races she dislikes - as Geraldo Alckmin's reelection campaign in São Paulo and Lindberg Farias' campaign in Rio de Janeiro. It's important to remember that the PSB's national chairman, Marcio França, is running for Vice Governor on Geraldo Alckmin's ticket, and his opinion will be very important on this process.

If Marina Silva is indeed the candidate, it's speculated that Roberto Freire will be their VP candidate.

I agree with most what you wrote except about Marina Silva having all the Aécio Neves votes in the runoff. The last poll considering a runoff scenario between Dilma Roussef and Marina Silva took place in February 2014, and in this poll, 57% of the Aécio voters would vote for Marina Silva in thr runoff, 25% would vote for Dilma Roussef, 15% would not vote and 2% didn't know. In that poll, considering all voters, Dilma was leading against Marina 50%/35%. However, it was a much better time for Dilma that month. Against Aécio, she was leading 54%/27%.
http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2014/02/24/intencao-de-voto-presidente-2014.pdf

Considering that the "agrobusiness" belongs to the Aécio supporting base, I really doubt that this sector would back an environmentalist. And I believe that some of the 19% that voted for Marina in 2010 casted a protest vote. They did not imagine her sitting on the president chair.


Eduardo Campos funeral will take place on Saturday. PSB will choose its candidate only after that.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's now nearly certain Marina Silva will head the ticket. Congressman Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS), who was running for the Senate, will probably be her running mate.

[Sec. of State Superique]

It's now nearly certain Marina Silva will head the ticket. Congressman Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS), who was running for the Senate, will probably be her running mate.

Other important names are the Government Agenda Coordinator, Maurício Rands, the former National Integration Minister, Fernando Bezerra, and Congressman Júlio Salgado. Rands was, however, a member of PT until October of last year, Bezerra was a member of Dilma's Government and Salgado is not close to Marina, although very critical of President Lula.

There are rumors that Eduardo's widow Renata or even Eduardo's brother were considering to run as well, but those would be highly unlikely names...

What is certain is that the Vice Presidential candidate will be a member of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB).

[RodPresident]

It's now nearly certain Marina Silva will head the ticket. Congressman Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS), who was running for the Senate, will probably be her running mate.

Beto is a Campos' loyalist. He was 2nd best-voted congressman in RS and served as Infrastructure Secretary at Genro's government. He left job to help Campos. He would be good to attract sympathy votes after he gets national electorate to know his personal drama. His son Pietro died in 2009, after sufering a hard kind of leukaemia where all of solutions were tested, but all failed because lack of compatible donators.

[buritobr]

First poll after the accident

Dilma Roussef 36%
Marina Silva 21%
Aécio Neves 20%
Pastor Everaldo 3%
Others 2%
None 8%
Not decided 9%


Runoff

Marina Silva 47%
Dilma Roussef 43%

Dilma Roussef 47%
Aécio Neves 39%


Rating of Dilma Roussef administration

Good/Very good 38%
Regular 38%
Bad/Very bad 23%

[Tender Branson]

RIP Campos.

...

A Rousseff vs. Silva runoff would be great.

[FredLindq]

Interesting!

I am just wondering what kind off government Marina would name? I mean the parties supporting her have like maximum 10% in the parliament?!

[Paleobrazilian]

[buritobr]

Interesting!

I am just wondering what kind off government Marina would name? I mean the parties supporting her have like maximum 10% in the parliament?!

Good question. Maybe, even herself doesn't know yet. The difference between Marina Silva and Eduardo Campos is that Eduardo Campos was really the center, he was on the right of Dilma and on the left of Aécio. Marina Silva is the center because she is the average of the extremes. She has supporters on the left of Dilma and on the right of Aécio.

Usually, supporting coalitions of presidential candidates in Brazil do not have 50% of the legislative. After elected, they have to negotiate a base with other parties, offering some ministries and government offices.

[buritobr]

Well, the details of the poll

Runoff scenario 1

All
Dilma 47%, Aécio 39%

Gender
Male: Dilma 48%, Aécio 40%
Female: Dilma 47%, Aécio 38%

Age
16-24: Dilma 45%, Aécio 44%
25-34: Dilma 47%, Aécio 39%
35-44: Dilma 47%, Aécio 38%
45-59: Dilma 49%, Aécio 39%
60-: Dilma 48%, Aécio 37%

Education Level
Elementary: Dilma 57%, Aécio 31%
High School: Dilma 46%, Aécio 42%
College: Dilma 30%, Aécio 53%

Household Income
Less than 2 minimum wages: Dilma 57%, Aécio 31%
Between 2 and 5 minimum wages: Dilma 42%, Aécio 45%
Between 5 and 10 minimum wages: Dilma 35%, Aécio 51%
More than 10 minimum wages: Dilma 26%, Aécio 60%
Minimum wage in Brazil = US$305 monthly

Region
Southeast: Dilma 38%, Aécio 45%
South: Dilma 42%, Aécio 44%
Northeast: Dilma 62%, Aécio 27%
Center-West: Dilma 39%, Aécio 50%
North: Dilma 63%, Aécio 27%

Location
Metropolitan Area: Dilma 42%, Aécio 41%
Countryside: Dilma 51%, Aécio 38%

City size
Less than 50k inhabitants: Dilma 57%, Aécio 32%
Between 50k and 200k inhabitants: Dilma 46%, Aécio 41%
Between 200k and 500k inhabitants: Dilma 42%, Aécio 44%
More than 500k inhabitants: Dilma 40%, Aécio 43%

Party identification
PT: Dilma 86%, Aécio 10%
PSDB: Dilma 13%, Aécio 81%
None: Dilma 42%, Aécio 40%

View on Dilma Administration
Good/Very good: Dilma 84%, Aécio 10%
Regular: Dilma 38%, Aécio 46%
Bad/Very bad: Dilma 4%, Aécio 76%

Vote in the first round
Marina Silva: Dilma 28%, Aécio 54%

Religion
Catholic: Dilma 50%, Aécio 38%
Petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 45%, Aécio 41%
Non-petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 42%, Aécio 47%
Kardecist: Dilma 35%, Aécio 49%
No religion: Dilma 46%, Aécio 35%

Race
White: Dilma 40%, Aécio 46%
"Pardo" (half white, half black): Dilma 52%, Aécio 35%
Black: Dilma 54%, Aécio 32%
Asian: Dilma 46%, Aécio 42%
Native: Dilma 55%, Aécio 27%


In summary: comparing to the poll of July, Dilma Roussef widened the gap from four to eight points by growing in the groups where she was already stronger - low income and Northeast. So, income and regional polarization increased.

[buritobr]

Runoff scenario 2

All
Dilma 43%, Marina 47%

Gender
Male: Dilma 45%, Marina 46%
Female: Dilma 42%, Marina 48%

Age
16-24: Dilma 38%, Marina 57%
25-34: Dilma 40%, Marina 52%
35-44: Dilma 42%, Marina 48%
45-59: Dilma 46%, Marina 43%
60-: Dilma 49%, Marina 36%

Education Level
Elementary: Dilma 55%, Marina 34%
High School: Dilma 40%, Marina 53%
College: Dilma 24%, Marina 65%

Household Income
Less than 2 minimum wages: Dilma 52%, Marina 38%
Between 2 and 5 minimum wages: Dilma 39%, Marina 53%
Between 5 and 10 minimum wages: Dilma 29%, Marina 62%
More than 10 minimum wages: Dilma 21%, Marina 64%
Minimum wage in Brazil = US$305 monthly

Region
Southeast: Dilma 36%, Marina 53%
South: Dilma 40%, Marina 47%
Northeast: Dilma 54%, Marina 38%
Center-West: Dilma 33%, Marina 60%
North: Dilma 59%, Marina 34%

Location
Metropolitan Area: Dilma 38%, Marina 51%
Countryside: Dilma 46%, Marina 44%

City size
Less than 50k inhabitants: Dilma 54%, Marina 38%
Between 50k and 200k inhabitants: Dilma 41%, Marina 48%
Between 200k and 500k inhabitants: Dilma 38%, Marina 51%
More than 500k inhabitants: Dilma 35%, Marina 55%

Party identification
PT: Dilma 79%, Marina 19%
PSDB: Dilma 16%, Marina 75%
None: Dilma 38%, Marina 50%

View on Dilma Administration
Good/Very good: Dilma 79%, Marina 16%
Regular: Dilma 33%, Marina 57%
Bad/Very bad: Dilma 2%, Marina 84%

Vote in the first round
Aécio Neves: Dilma 19%, Marina 70%

Religion
Catholic: Dilma 48%, Marina 42%
Petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 38%, Marina 54%
Non-petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 38%, Marina 58%
Kardecist: Dilma 34%, Marina 60%
No religion: Dilma 36%, Marina 51%

Race
White: Dilma 37%, Marina 52%
"Pardo" (half white, half black): Dilma 47%, Marina 44%
Black: Dilma 48%, Marina 43%
Asian: Dilma 51%, Marina 41%
Native: Dilma 49%, Marina 41%

[MaxQue]

How convenient! A candidate dies in shady circumstrances and is replaced by someone polling better. That's fishy.

[Famous Mortimer]

How convenient! A candidate dies in shady circumstrances and is replaced by someone polling better. That's fishy.

Except no one powerful really benefits from Silva's rise. In fact, most of Campos' original backers are probably anxious about it.

[MaxQue]

How convenient! A candidate dies in shady circumstrances and is replaced by someone polling better. That's fishy.

Except no one powerful really benefits from Silva's rise. In fact, most of Campos' original backers are probably anxious about it.

I think it's more about getting Rouseff out of office, rather than putting Silva in.

[Paleobrazilian]

Rep. Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS) has been chosen as the running mate. Nice pick.