Brazil Election - 5 October 2014
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  Brazil Election - 5 October 2014
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Author Topic: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014  (Read 124412 times)
politicus
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« Reply #150 on: August 19, 2014, 05:37:44 PM »

Rep. Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS) has been chosen as the running mate. Nice pick.

Apart from the background stuff Rod told us, what is Beto like policy wise?
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buritobr
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« Reply #151 on: August 19, 2014, 10:43:58 PM »

How convenient! A candidate dies in shady circumstrances and is replaced by someone polling better. That's fishy.

In February 2014, the last polls considering scenario with Eduardo Campos and scenario with Marina Silva candidate showed that Marina Silva was polling better than Eduardo Campos. However, PSB is Campos' party. Marina Silva is in the PSB only because she could not register her new party in the electoral justice in the deadline. Winning 2014 was not a part of Campos' plan. He was relatively young. He was planning to run this year in order to become known by the of the Brazilian electorate, and then, run in 2018 trying to win.

Parties do not need to choose the candidate who is polling better. In the end of 2013, Lula was polling better than Dilma in PT, but Lula doesn't want to be presidente again. José Serra was polling better than Aécio Neves in PSDB, but José Serra is too old.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #152 on: August 21, 2014, 08:14:25 PM »

A new pack of IBOPE polls will be released next Tuesday, so we'll have the chance to see whether the trends observed by Datafolha will keep up, and if the first days of TV and radio campaign will have relevant impact.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #153 on: August 21, 2014, 08:31:21 PM »

So what are Silva's positions? Is she to the left or right of Dilma?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #154 on: August 21, 2014, 08:34:24 PM »


'Yes' is the answer to this question, as I understand it.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #155 on: August 21, 2014, 09:53:42 PM »

So what are Silva's positions? Is she to the left or right of Dilma?

To the right, specially on social issues.
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buritobr
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« Reply #156 on: August 21, 2014, 11:36:01 PM »

So what are Silva's positions? Is she to the left or right of Dilma?

She is on the right of Dilma on economic issues too. The economists in Dilma administration are keynesian. The economists backing Marina Silva are monetarist.

Considering social issues, Marina Silva is petencostal evangelic and she has some conservative views about theory of evolution, abortion and gay marriage, but she mentions these views only when she is asked. Religion is not the most important issue of her politics.
Dilma Roussef is problably agnostic, but she says she is catholic. She is neither liberal nor conservative on social issues. She doesn't care. But her policies are more social conservative than Lula's ones, because the number of religious fundamentalists in the Congress increased, and she wants to avoid problems with these Congressmen.

Despite the views of Marina Silva on social and economic issues, some leftists like her because of her views on environment.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #157 on: August 22, 2014, 12:15:48 AM »

Silva did leave the Workers' Party because it had moved too far to the center though...
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buritobr
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« Reply #158 on: August 22, 2014, 05:21:55 AM »

Silva did leave the Workers' Party because it had moved too far to the center though...

No.

Left-wing candidate Luciana Genro left the Workers Party because it had moved too far to the center.

Marina Silva left the Workers Party because Lula wanted to build hidroelectric power plants in the Amazon Forest, and as the Minister of Environment, Marina Silva was against it. But on other issues, Marina Silva is on the right, not on the left of the Workers Party.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #159 on: August 22, 2014, 07:30:51 AM »

According to internals Marina has now left Aecio Neves behind and in some polls is already statistically tied to President Rousseff.

Tactical voting will end up dooming Neves, probably. And in a runoff, Marina would be the favorite today. Who'd have thought?
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Zanas
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« Reply #160 on: August 22, 2014, 10:10:56 AM »

According to internals Marina has now left Aecio Neves behind and in some polls is already statistically tied to President Rousseff.

Tactical voting will end up dooming Neves, probably. And in a runoff, Marina would be the favorite today. Who'd have thought?
Does that make her a murder suspect at all ?

I always thought François Hollande got away too easily for planting Diallo in DSK's room...
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #161 on: August 22, 2014, 11:01:07 PM »

Datafolha will release a new poll next week as well, so we'll have some solid info in a few days.

This new poll will also show if  the first TV debate (next Tuesday) had any effect.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #162 on: August 23, 2014, 10:33:38 AM »

I'm a Dilma's supporter and I'm calm about Marina's surge. She'll self-implode at some moment. She had first crisis with PSB's cupula as Carlos Siqueira, Secretary-General of PSB, resigned as campaign manager. He'll be replaced by Luiza Erundina, although this will be only symbolic, as Erundina has some criticism of Marina's critic of traditional politics and her business allies. Marina had promised to give autonomy to Central Bank and to end reelection.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #163 on: August 23, 2014, 11:04:15 AM »

I don't know who I will vote for. Neves was my mother's friend (when they worked together in the Belo Horizonte City Hall), I like Marina because she puts the focus on environment protection (as a Greenpeace member and a person concerned about the future of the Amazonas, this is a critical issue for me), I approve of many things Dilma -and Lula before her- has done as President (I support Bolsa Familia, Mais Médicos and, specially, Minha Casa Minha Vida, Luz para Todos and the foreign policy).

So, yes, this is a weird election where I'm more or less "happy" with any candidate. Neves is almost discarded because he's too "moderate hero" for my taste and is the candidate of the right (even if he can't be considered right-wing), Marina has some wacky positions (social issues, mainly) that make me cringe, and Dilma is supported by some parties like PP and PRB that I hate and hasn't fought enough against corruption... So, I think I may end up voting for Eduardo Jorge (PV) or Luciana Genro (PSOL) in the 1st round and then voting for Dilma in the 2nd, but, as I said, that may change. I like Mauro Iasi (PCB) a lot but no way I'm voting for his party Tongue.
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buritobr
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« Reply #164 on: August 23, 2014, 11:17:46 AM »

I will vote for Luciana Genro in the first round and for Dilma Roussef in the runoff, no matter if her oponnent is Aécio Neves or Marina Silva.
I agree with RodPresident. Marina Silva will self implode. I think that Aécio Neves will go to the runoff.

For governor of Rio de Janeiro, I will vote for PT candidate Lindberg Farias. For senator, I still don't know if I will vote for Romário or for the PSOL candidate.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #165 on: August 23, 2014, 11:39:00 AM »

Erundina? LOL.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #166 on: August 23, 2014, 02:47:25 PM »

I will vote for Luciana Genro in the first round and for Dilma Roussef in the runoff, no matter if her oponnent is Aécio Neves or Marina Silva.
I agree with RodPresident. Marina Silva will self implode. I think that Aécio Neves will go to the runoff.

For governor of Rio de Janeiro, I will vote for PT candidate Lindberg Farias. For senator, I still don't know if I will vote for Romário or for the PSOL candidate.

So, it's very possible we vote the same way in the Presidential election Smiley

I'm not sure Marina will implode. She didn't in 2010, I don't see why she will this time.

I can only vote for President, but if I could cast a ballot for Governor, I'd vote for Pimentel for sure. I wouldn't waste time thinking about my vote for Senator, as Anastasia will win, but I think my vote would vote for the PSTU/PCB/PCO/whatever candidate.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #167 on: August 23, 2014, 04:25:11 PM »

In 2010, Marina hadn't same vetting she's going to get now. She's being attacked by right-wing newspapers, like receiving critics from left. Aecio has 40 days to recover. Water crisis in São Paulo isn't affecting Alckmin because weak opponents, but people in São Paulo can protest voting in Marina (who refused to support PSB's alliance with Alckmin-many say that she wasn't on Campos' flight to not meet him).
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #168 on: August 23, 2014, 06:09:35 PM »

Marina is smart and she's wisely flirting with the financial markets and etc. Campos was having fundraising problems and she might solve this. Her main risk is alienating way too many important PSB members and losing vital ground support on many important states, like São Paulo.

Aecio was running a very bland campaign and will have to do something quickly. He's been running good TV ads IMO, but if he doesn't escalate the tone a little bit it may be irrelevant in the end. His advantage is having many unfaithful party cells on his side, like the PP in Rio Grande do Sul and the PDT in Mato Grosso. Those could be even more helpful if there's a runoff.

Oh, and I don't rule out some sort of a shy toucan effect. It has happened before.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #169 on: August 23, 2014, 06:30:21 PM »

BTW, October 5th I'll be voting those:

President: Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG)/Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP)
Governor: Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB-SP)/Marcio França (PSB-SP)
Senator: José Serra (PSDB-SP)
Representative: Carlos Sampaio (PSDB-SP)
State Rep.: Fernando Capez (PSDB-SP)

A full house of toucans Tongue
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buritobr
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« Reply #170 on: August 24, 2014, 09:24:41 AM »

Differences between 2010 and 2014

> In 2010, Marina Silva increased from 10% to 19% in the last two weeks of the campaign. She was only the stone, not the glass. She did not have enough time to be criticized. Now, she will receive criticism from both Dilma and Aécio campaign.
> In 2010, Marina Silva had centrist supporters, but she had also supporters on the left of Dilma and on the right of José Serra. In the last four years, her left-wing base became disapointed. In 2014, there is clear evidence that she is the second candidate of the right. Her government agenda was prepared by monetarist economists.
> Large media groups like Globo, Abril and Estadão endorsed Marina Silva candidature after Campos' death because they wanted someone to have enough votes in order to avoid Dilma's victory in the first round. But they didn't want Marina ahead of Aécio, because they prefer Aécio. So, the media that started a positive coverage about Marina will start a negative coverage if Marina became a threat to Aécio.

As I said before, most of the support for Marina Silva in 2014 come from the right. I heard some people saying that they will vote for Marina, not for Aécio, because she has bigger probability to defeat Dilma in the second round than Aécio has. When they perceive that Marina Silva will not have bigger probability to defeat Dilma in the second round, they will go back to Aécio. It is like the Keynesian beauty contest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest
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buritobr
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« Reply #171 on: August 24, 2014, 04:47:23 PM »

Today, when I was walking on the street going to have lunch, I was stopped and interviewed by an electoral poll. It was the IBPS institute, not so big like the most famous ones, Ibope and Datafolha. It was the first time in my life I was interviewed. The probability is very small.

First, the interviewer asked me in which candidate I would vote for president, governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro, and senator of the state of Rio de Janeiro, without showing the list with the names of the candidates. Then, he asked the same questions, but in this time, showing the list with the names of the candidates. Of course, I gave the same answers. After that, he asked in which candidates I would never vote for ("rejeição"). Then, he asked in which candidate I would vote for deputy in the legislative assembly of Rio de Janeiro and for deputy in the National Congress. In the end, he asked my household income and my religion.

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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #172 on: August 24, 2014, 05:56:31 PM »

There are many black ops polls going on daily, and since those are not released to the public, they don't have to be registered. Those are essential for House candidates and their parties. Usually parties know pretty early how big their congressional bench will be and who will be there thanks to those polls. Plus, they help the daily tracking all parties do.

According to rumors one of the big pollsters (I'd guess IBOPE) ran a national poll for FEBRABAN (Brazil's powerful banking association). The results were 35% Dilma, 27% Marina and 18% Aécio, and Marina already leading outside the margin of error against Dilma in the runoff (47% x 40%).

As for tracking polls, you'll find tons of supposed leaked numbers around the internet, but most of them are junk. The most reliable ones, according to sources, show numbers similar to those above.

With the new IBOPE being released Tuesday and the new Datafolha around Friday, we'll know better soon.

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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #173 on: August 24, 2014, 09:44:23 PM »

I would be posting some of my own analysis during this election cycle, but I would like to wait until a new Datafolha and this IBOPE polls that will be made (Although I don't trust IBOPE and don't really believe that they are actually reliable anyway). Now those are going to be my votes:

President: Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG)/ Senator Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP)
Governor: Governor Luiz Fernando "Pezao" (PMDB-RJ)
Senator: Fmr. Mayor César Maia (DEM-RJ)
Representative: Otávio Leite (PSDB-RJ)
State Representative: Luiz Paulo (PSDB-RJ)

It's very likely that I will get a meeting with Otávio Leite =)
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Simfan34
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« Reply #174 on: August 24, 2014, 10:59:11 PM »

BTW, October 5th I'll be voting those:

President: Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG)/Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP)
Governor: Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB-SP)/Marcio França (PSB-SP)
Senator: José Serra (PSDB-SP)
Representative: Carlos Sampaio (PSDB-SP)
State Rep.: Fernando Capez (PSDB-SP)

A full house of toucans Tongue

I like this. And Serra is running for Senate? Will that man just retire?
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