Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[njwes]

Realistically, what major differences would there be between a Marina presidency and a Dilma presidency, assuming that the PSB remains rather small in parliament?

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina would form a coalition involving the parties she already has on her side + those supporting Aecio. Then she'd go after the PSD and the PDT, two parties that would very likely endorse her as well. That's enough for a small majority in both chambers of Congress, but would make passing constitutional amendments extremely tough. The PROS is a dark horse, they'd probably move to the opposition if Ciro Gomes is not joking about running for President in 2018 (even though he's probably irrelevant nationally right now). Finally, if Marina's "new politics" slogan is for real, she won't compromise with the PR, the PP and specially the PMDB. I feel she believes she can form a coalition that can break down those parties, just like Lula did when faced with the PFL-DEM.

Overall, she'd form more of a center to center-right coalition, perhaps trying to force the PT-PCdoB group to adopt a farther left speech that could annoy middle class voters.

[Sec. of State Superique]

Realistically, what major differences would there be between a Marina presidency and a Dilma presidency, assuming that the PSB remains rather small in parliament?

Marina would follow a Macroeconomic Policy much more simillar to those of Mr. Lula's First Term and President FHC's Second Term. We can expect much more fiscal control and higher compromise with inflation control. Moreover, that is something that both Aécio and Marina would probably do, reduce the subsidies given to big companies via BNDES (a public bank), Marina has been highly critical of the billions spent on failed projects and this is clearly something that might change. Marina will also try to deal with politicians in a different way, she might want to change the way that Coalitions are managed in Brazil, instead of just dividing the ministries to each party, she may take a more "European" approach, presenting a coalition governmental plan. Furthermore, she will give a huge push for a Political Reform, something that Dilma says that she is interested on doing but is not. There are many other differences but those are the main ones...

[Paleobrazilian]

Well, it is not easy to say who is better, Ibope or Datafolha.

Ibope interviews 1200 people at their homes (sometimes, this institute interviews 2000 people). Datafolha interviews 5300 people on the streets (sometimes, this institute interviews 10000 people). A bigger sample is a little bit more precise. But just a little. Professors of Statistics say that when a sample is big enough, it doesn't get much better if it gets bigger. Of course, a 100 people sample would be a very bad one, but 1200 is not.
Datafolha has a bigger sample, but the probability of having a biased sample when the people are interviewed on the streets and not in their homes is bigger.
In 2010, both Ibope and Datafolha predicted in the first round eve that Dilma would have 50% of the valid votes, and actually, she had 46,5%.

It is possible to ready a little bit more about these two polls

Metodology of Ibope: http://pesqele.tse.jus.br/pesqele/publico/pesquisa/Pesquisa/visualizacaoPublica.action?id=25324

Metodology of Datafolha: http://pesqele.tse.jus.br/pesqele/publico/pesquisa/Pesquisa/visualizacaoPublica.action?id=25305

I actually feel polling in Brazil is much better than polling in other countries, specially because public polls must be registered at the TSE and if they don't follow solid standards public release of them is forbidden. Also, polling a country where voting is mandatory is probably a bit easier as abstention is rarely a factor (even though sometimes it has been).

Still, mistakes happen, some of them unforgivable. Back in 2010, Ibope missed by nearly 5% in Dilma's favor in the first round, and Datafolha missed by nearly 5% in Alckmin's favor in the first round. In 2012, Ibope was also fairly inaccurate polling São Paulo in the runoff (not enough to influence the race, but still a considerable miss). The biggest swings tend to happen on the last week of the campaign, when undecideds are forced to decide and when many unsolidified votes change their minds.

[buritobr]

The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

This one of the biggest lies that has emerged in Brazil. Marina has changed her Governmental Program because that was not her personal belief. Anyone that has been following Marina's speeches, discussions and interviews will see that she NEVER endorsed gay marriage. She has been sometimes a little bit dubious, but her official position is that supports the Civil Union. In some sense, she is supporting Gay Marriage indirectly since the Judiciary System has granted Civil Union the same benefits of a Marriage. Unfortunately, there a bunch of radicals in the LGBT movement that are not capable of reading Marina's program, it offers support for Civil Union, it offers support for developing a law that fights homophobia and it is supportive of measures that make easier adoptions for gay couples. Regarding to Malafaia, despite of all the changes, he even mentioned that the words' essence were the same.

What appeals me the most is that leftist in Brazil are condemning Marina because she is a flip floper while Lula and Dilma are the best on doing this. Dilma was a proud support of legalizing abortion and now she says that she is not. Lula has made a 180o Change since 1989. During 2010, somedays before the 1st Round Election, Dilma's campaign changed her whole Governmental Program to a list of 13 points and not a single discussion has arisen from leftists in Brazils.

Nope.
Dilma Roussef was not a proud supporter of legalization of abortion. She is neither liberal nor conservative in cultural wars, like same-sex marriage, anti-homophobia education, abortion, marijuana and elimination of religious objects in state offices. She doesn't care to these issues. She said she supported legalization of abortion in 2007 only because she was asked. It was just a personal opinion. It was not a part of her political activity.
The Workers Party (PT) moved from a radical left-wing party in 1980 to a social democrat party since 2002 through a slow movement. It was not a flip flop. PT was more moderate in 1989 than it was in 1980, more moderate in 1994 than in 1989, more moderate in 1998 than in 1994, more moderate in 2002 than in 1998...

[politicus]

The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

This one of the biggest lies that has emerged in Brazil. Marina has changed her Governmental Program because that was not her personal belief. Anyone that has been following Marina's speeches, discussions and interviews will see that she NEVER endorsed gay marriage. She has been sometimes a little bit dubious, but her official position is that supports the Civil Union. In some sense, she is supporting Gay Marriage indirectly since the Judiciary System has granted Civil Union the same benefits of a Marriage. Unfortunately, there a bunch of radicals in the LGBT movement that are not capable of reading Marina's program, it offers support for Civil Union, it offers support for developing a law that fights homophobia and it is supportive of measures that make easier adoptions for gay couples. Regarding to Malafaia, despite of all the changes, he even mentioned that the words' essence were the same.

What appeals me the most is that leftist in Brazil are condemning Marina because she is a flip floper while Lula and Dilma are the best on doing this. Dilma was a proud support of legalizing abortion and now she says that she is not. Lula has made a 180o Change since 1989. During 2010, somedays before the 1st Round Election, Dilma's campaign changed her whole Governmental Program to a list of 13 points and not a single discussion has arisen from leftists in Brazil's.

Nope.
Dilma Roussef was not a proud supporter of legalization of abortion. She is neither liberal nor conservative in cultural wars, like same-sex marriage, anti-homophobia education, abortion, marijuana and elimination of religious objects in state offices. She doesn't care to these issues. She said she supported legalization of abortion in 2007 only because she was asked. It was just a personal opinion. It was not a part of her political activity.
The Workers Party (PT) moved from a radical left-wing party in 1980 to a social democrat party since 2002 through a slow movement. It was not a flip flop. PT was more moderate in 1989 than it was in 1980, more moderate in 1994 than in 1989, more moderate in 1998 than in 1994, more moderate in 2002 than in 1998...

Rising left wing parties moderating before and in the first years after they gain power is standard operating procedure all over the world, but that's different from what happened in 2010, which indeed seems like major  flip-floppping.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is climbing over 2% with rumors that tonight's IBOPE numbers will show Dilma declining.

Edit: Bovespa is now gaining over 3%. Petrobras' stock is gaining around 5%. All state-owned companies are having substantial gains, just like Itaú, one of Brazil's largest private banks, strongly tied to Marina's campaign.

Edit 2: Petrobras is now climbing over 8%. It could be a bubble, but it's strongly believed important info has leaked from IBOPE. Not only it's widely believed Marina will be ahead outside the MOE in a runoff tonight, some also believe this poll will show Aecio regaining ground.

[Paleobrazilian]

Here's why the market was so excited. Not only Dilma has declined outside the MOE in the first round, Aecio has a 4% gain and is suddenly viable again.



Runoff numbers:

Marina 43% (stable)
Dilma 40% (- 2%)

Dilma 44% (- 4%)
Aecio 37% (+ 4%)

[njwes]

Are the "Rejeição" numbers essentially disapproval ratings?

[Paleobrazilian]

Are the "Rejeição" numbers essentially disapproval ratings?

Essentially but not exactly. The question made for rejeição ratings is "which candidate(s) would you never vote for?". This because you could dislike/disapprove someone but still vote for him if you feel there's a "bigger evil".

Those ratings are currently the more worrisome for President Rousseff. 1/3 of Brazilian voters say they'd never vote for her. Her ceiling in a runoff is no higher than about 55% of the valid votes. What helps her is that her floor is high anyway (around 40% of the valid votes). Those 15% that separate Dilma's floor from Dilma's ceiling are the voters that will most likely decide this election.

[Paleobrazilian]

New Datafolha numbers seem to contradict IBOPE just a little when it comes to Aecio. Otherwise the polls seem to confirm the same trends.



The next tracking polls, and the next IBOPE which will be released Tuesday, will be decisive for Aecio. If he doesn't come up with significant gains, the PSDB and its allies will start migrating to Marina quickly, and he'll be forced to spend the last 2 weeks of campaign in Minas Gerais trying to save the local PSDB that's losing that governorship to the PT after 12 years of rule (probably the only relevant governorship the PT will be have on their hands after this cycle).

If he gains significant ground, though, party leaders will be forced to rally around him until the end - not exactly what Geraldo Alckmin and Beto Richa have in mind, as they're poised to win in the 1st round (possibly in convincing fashion), posting their names on the front burner for 2018.

Meanwhile, with Marina's growing rejection, and Dilma still deeply rejected for an incumbent running for reelection, this runoff is shaping up to be an extremely ugly battle of two candidates trying to scare voters away from the other candidate. Dilma has been running tons of negative ads for the last two weeks and Marina has started to run ads responding directly to the President. It'll only get uglier, specially because in a runoff both Marina and Dilma will have exactly the same TV time (today Dilma has about 5x more time than Marina). "Project Fear" is coming to Brazil.

PS: Runoff numbers are 46 Marina (-1%) x 44 Dilma (+1%) and 49 Dilma (stable) x 39 Aecio (+1%).

[Paleobrazilian]

According to Datafolha 70% voters don't know who they'll vote for the lower house of Congress. The proportional system has proved to be a huge failure and is a reason why Congress is so unpopular and clearly in need of reform.

All candidates claim to be in favor of reform. Dilma (and the PT) want to adopt the party-list system. Aecio (and the PSDB) and Marina favor a combined district system, like the one adopted by Germany, so there's ground for Marina and the PSDB to compromise when it comes to political and electoral reform.

Sadly, I'm still not optimistic we'll see a political reform in 2015.

[Sec. of State Superique]

Aécio is partially doing Dilma's job and stealing votes from Marina in the first round and making things worst for her in the second round.

Now I believe that Marina rejection is rising mainly due to PSDB voters. That's good for Aécio in the first round but if he is not able to turn things up, which I don't think he really can, he will probably find himself not being in the second round and being responsible for a rise in Marina's rejection, helping Dilma at the end.

[Paleobrazilian]

Aécio is partially doing Dilma's job and stealing votes from Marina in the first round and making things worst for her in the second round.

Now I believe that Marina rejection is rising mainly due to PSDB voters. That's good for Aécio in the first round but if he is not able to turn things up, which I don't think he really can, he will probably find himself not being in the second round and being responsible for a rise in Marina's rejection, helping Dilma at the end.

And that's why he's taking a lot of heat from allies and even from many within his party. The PSDB knows this scenario all too well, as they made a similar blunder back in 2002 when they torpedoed Ciro Gomes (a former PSDB member who they could have easily worked with after the election) believing they could elect Serra in a runoff against Lula, even though the national mood was clearly anti-PSDB and avoiding Lula's election should have been their main target.

Of course, Aecio has no other alternative if he wants to stay viable for 2018 and beyond - he has to go after Marina to get as many votes as possible. Anything short of the 25% of valid votes would very likely kill his chances of running for President again anytime soon - at least as PSDB's candidate.

[Niemeyerite]

Superique, Paleobrazilian, would you vote for Marina in the 2nd round? Proudly or reluctantly?

[Paleobrazilian]

Superique, Paleobrazilian, would you vote for Marina in the 2nd round? Proudly or reluctantly?

I'd definitely vote her against Dilma. I like most of what she says. I'm just unenthusiastic about her "new politics". In fact, I'm unconvinced about how this would work, even though I can imagine her coalition as I said before. She promises way too many constitutional changes (specially the political reform and the tax system reform) which would be hard to pass without solid support in Congress.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

moreover they are trying to portrait the PSB's candidate as an inexperiente leader that won't work in Brazil's political environment and are comparing her to Collor and Jânio Quadros.

It's such a shame Collor isn't running himself. You say "WTF?", but if Itamar could keep trying to run for President way until 2006, why the hell not?

[buritobr]

Collor is running for senator from the state of Alagoas. Probably he will win. He would have no more than 5% if he ran for president. There is no sense for him to run for president.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Collor is running for senator from the state of Alagoas. Probably he will win. He would have no more than 5% if he ran for president. There is no sense for him to run for president.

I know, right?

Seriously though, great job with this thread, guys. I've lost touch with Brazilian politics, so it helps me get reconnected to this

[RodPresident]

Collor is on ticket supported by PT, former enemy Ronaldo Lessa (of PDT). His gubernatorial candidate is Congressman Renan Filho (son of Senate President, Renan Calheiros). Main opponent is former senator Heloisa Helena (PSOL) who got PSDB undercover endorsement.

[politicus]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

[Zanas]

Could the OP include this election's date in the thread's title, as is standard procedure around here nowadays ? Thx.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is sliding about 3% today over rumors that Marina is quickly losing steam in tracking polls.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa losing 1% right now. Petrobras' main stock is falling 3%. There's tension as it now looks like Marina will be surpassed by Dilma in a runoff in tonight's IBOPE. It's also believed that Aecio has bridged the difference between them further (probably around 6-8% now). Since Aecio is weaker in a runoff than Marina, the market gets even more scared and falls even more.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Bovespa is sliding about 3% today over rumors that Marina is quickly losing steam in tracking polls.

Any chance of Aecio recovering and making it into a runoff?