Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is sliding about 3% today over rumors that Marina is quickly losing steam in tracking polls.

Any chance of Aecio recovering and making it into a runoff?

Yes if Marina starts to dehydrate quickly, something we'll learn this week. I consider this scenario unlikely, but Aecio is a veteran politician with strong campaigning skills. He's also benefiting from Dilma's blitzkrieg against Marina. If I had to bet, Marina will make it to the runoff about 5% ahead of Aecio in valid votes.

This kind of crash Marina may experience has happened in big municipal and gubernatorial elections before (for example, Celso Russomano's failed run for Mayor of São Paulo in 2012 and Francisco Rossi's big crash all the way back in 1998), but never before in a presidential election (at least since redemocratization). The closest thing to this was in 2002 when Ciro Gomes plummeted in polls right after the TV campaign started. Curiously, in both scenarios I mentioned before there was a strong candidate who was having big trouble to gain traction (Fernando Haddad and Mario Covas), and both times the candidate went on to make it to the runoff by the skin of the teeth and then went on to win the election in a big comeback charge. Both of them benefited from a rival with high rejection rates (José Serra and Paulo Maluf, respectively). Since Dilma has a high rejection rate, it's not hard to understand why Aecio still believes he can win this one.

[Paleobrazilian]

New IBOPE numbers are out. Dilma gains slightly from Marina and they're now rigorously tied in a runoff. Aeciomentum is dead. If Datafolha confirms those numbers later this week, I'll be surprised if the PSDB doesn't pull the plug on Aecio's campaign. Marina has even embraced Geraldo Alckmin's campaign over the last few days. Aecio will be forced to admit defeat. Perhaps in 2022 or 2026 he'll be luckier.

I don't think Marina loses more unless she makes a very big blunder. This runoff will go neck and neck to the wire. October 26th will be a very nervous day and it may come down to less than a million votes. Buckle up, this is going to be thrilling.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Perhaps in 2022 or 2026 he'll be luckier.

Aecio can always follow his grandfather's steps closely and keep trying until he succeeds in his 70s, although following Tancredo Neves is rather risky, considering what happened to him next.

[Paleobrazilian]

With less than 2 weeks to go, IBOPE is also polling important state runs. Today they released São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Pernambuco.

São Paulo - Governor:

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) – 49%
Paulo Skaf (PMDB) – 17%
Alexandre Padilha (PT) – 8%
Laércio Benko (PHS) – 1%
Others - 2%
Null: 12%
Undecided: 11%

About Alckmin I think I've already said plenty. With those numbers he's now with over 63% of the valid votes, a gigantic number. This is a nightmare for the PT. Padilha is a hugely flawed candidate and rejection of the PT in São Paulo is sky-high. I'll wait until the election day to talk more about the implications of this race, that could be pretty big.

São Paulo - Senator:

José Serra (PSDB) - 34%
Eduardo Suplicy (PT) - 25%
Gilberto Kassab (PSD) - 5%
Ana Luiza (PSTU) - 2%
Marlene Campos Machado (PTB) - 1%
Kaka Wera (PV) - 1%
Others - less than 1%
Null - 13%
Undecided - 17%

This one is not over as there's a big number of undecideds, but Serra actually increased his advantage this time. While voters are probably tired of him in Executive, they seem to be kind with the idea of him as a legislator. Plus, with Alckmin's coattails, momentum is on his side. Suplicy had never faced such a strong candidate, and perhaps the big rejection to the PT locally is also hurting him. As for Kassab, it's not like if he's trying too much. He's a very good friend of Serra

Rio de Janeiro - Governor:

Luiz Fernando Pezão (PMDB) - 29%
Anthony Garotinho (PR) – 26%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) - 17%
Lindberg Farias (PT) – 8%
Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) – 2%
Dayse Oliveira (PSTU) – 1%
Ney Nunes (PCB)  - 0%
Null –  10%
Undecided -  7%

Runoff: Pezão 43% x Garotinho 33%

This race is quicky moving into Pezão's hands. Garotinho has a solid tally of votes on his home city of Campos and on smaller cities, but his rejection on Rio's metro area is probably too big by now. Crivella has probably picked and Farias is yet another big disappointment for the PT. The moment is entirely on Pezão's hands now and he's probably not losing this one unless he makes a big mistake or unless Garotinho falls more and puts Crivella back in the game. I believe Bernardinho and Ellen Gracie (both from PSDB) now regret not running, in a scenario where the four main candidates suffer with lousy approval ratings they could well have been competitive.

Rio de Janeiro - Senator:

Romário (PSB) – 44%
Cesar Maia (DEM) – 21%
Eduardo Serra (PCB) – 2%
Carlos Lupi (PDT) – 2%
Liliam Sá (Pros) - 2%
Others - 2%
Null – 15%
Undecided – 11%

Better known as Brazil's star back in the 1994 World Cup, Romário has become a popular Congressman and is about to make it to the Senate in convincing fashion. Romário has a very, very bright political future - presidential, perhaps.

As for Cesar Maia, well... His time has come and gone.

Minas Gerais - Governor:

Fernando Pimentel (PT) – 44%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) – 25%
Tarcísio Delgado (PSB) – 4%
Fidélis (PSOL) – 1%
Eduardo Ferreira (PSDC) – 1%
Professor Túlio Lopes (PCB) – 1%
Cleide Donária (PCO) – 1%
Null: 9%
Undecided: 14%

This one is REALLY hurting Aecio Neves. He chose a weak candidate to run as the PSDB name here and he's about to lose this mansion the PSDB held for 16 of the last 20 years, including the last 12. The PSDB will be pissed if Pimenta da Veiga indeed loses by such a large margin without even forcing a runoff, and this makes Aecio even weaker within his party. Meanwhile, Pimentel solidifies his name as a rising star within the PT and will probably be the only candidate of the PT to win a relevant state government. More on this later.

Minas Gerais - Senator:

Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) - 47%
Josué Alencar (PMDB) - 20%
Margarida (PSB) - 1%
Tarcísio (PSDC) - 1%
Edilson Nascimento (PTdoB) - 1%
Geraldo Batata (PSTU) - 1%
Graça (PCO) - 1%
Pablo Lima (PCB) - 1%
Null - 11%
Undecided - 17%

Antonio Anastasia was a popular governor who followed Aecio's footprints pretty well. It's no surprise that he's running so strong. More on this later as well.

Pernambuco - Governor:

Paulo Câmara (PSB): 39%
Armando Monteiro (PTB): 35%
Others: Less than 1%
Null: 10%
Undecided: 15%

A down to the wire race. Câmara was Eduardo Campos' candidate. Since Campos was a hugely popular governor of Pernambuco, it's no suprise that he's doing well. But Monteiro is the candidate of Dilma and she's also popular in Pernambuco. I feel Câmara is the favorite but this will be a tight one.

Pernambuco:

João Paulo (PT) - 34%
Fernando Bezerra Coelho (PSB) - 28%
Simone Fontana (PSTU) - 2%
Albanise Pires (PSOL) - 1%
Oxis (PCB) - 1%
Null - 14%
Undecided - 21%

João Paulo was a popular Mayor of Recife so it's not surprising that he's ahead. Bezerra Coelho was the candidate of Eduardo Campos. This one will be tight as well. There are still many undecideds.

[RodPresident]

I think that PT failed to create a bench in São Paulo. And old party names are in jail or weakned. Padilha isn't well because Haddad isn't popular(he's acting more like a technical than a politician).And Alckmin is winning more due to weak opponents than being a fantastic governor. Skaf looks a lemon salesman. And looks that Alckmin can be national best voted governor in first round. I think that to win in São Paulo, PT should support an outside candidate from a non-PT party, like a non-capital mayor, like Rodrigo Agostinho (Bauru-PMDB) or Darcy Vera (Ribeirao Preto-PSD). Suplicy is somewhat out of touch with state demands and he looks to be somewhat senile.
In Rio de Janeiro, run-off can be a problem for Pezão. He's well because of his large TV time, but in run-off, with equal times, he can lose to a good orator, like Garotinho. And kingmaker can be Romario (he almost went to Garotinho's PR, but withdrew when Campos gave him PSB's control).
In Minas Gerais, Pimenta da Veiga was chosen to prevent a internal fight and to make national PSDB bosses happy (Pimenta was old tucano). But controversies due to Aecio's airport scandal and Marina's surge prevented a large advantadge. But Pimentel (PT) isn't controversial. In 2008, he allied Aecio to support Marcio Lacerda (PSB)'s mayoral bid.
In Pernambuco, Campos' family is going heavy to campaign for Camara, fearing a last week victory by Monteiro.

[buritobr]

I think Pezão will have 60% in the runoff, due to Garotinho's high rejection. Upper middle class voters who voted for Denise Frossard in 2006 and Fernando Gabeira in 2010, when Sérgio Cabral was backed by the PT, will now vote for Pezão.

Bernardinho and Ellen Gracie did not want to get into the politics. PSDB though that by endorsing Pezão, the support of PMDB politicians from Rio de Janeiro would help Aécio, considering that Rio de Janeiro has the 3rd biggest population, and PSDB is usually weak there.
Probably, large economic groups from Rio de Janeiro, like Globo and Firjan, who support the PSDB at the national level and the PMDB at the state level, backed the Aezão - aliance between PMDB, PSDB and DEM, in order to avoid the victory of an evangelic populist (Garotinho, Crivella) or the victory of the left (Lindberg).  If Pezão, César Maia and a PSDB candidate run separetely, they could split the center-right vote and allow a runoff between Garotinho and Crivella or Garotinho and Lindberg.
PSDB will be satisfied with the continuation of PMDB administration in Rio de Janeiro. Cabral/Pezão work with a lot of PSDB technocrats.

[Simfan34]

I am confused. Antonio Anastasia was eligible for another term as governor, no? He was elected in 2010.

[buritobr]

I am confused. Antonio Anastasia was eligible for another term as governor, no? He was elected in 2010.

Nope.

Aécio Neves resigned in March 2010 in order to run for the Senate, Anastasia was the vice governor, so, he became the governor. That's why he was "reelected" in October 2010. He was already in the office during the election. So, he is not eligible for another term.

[Paleobrazilian]

Exactly. Under Brazilian law, you're forced to resign from Executive office 6 months before the election if you want to run for some other public office (this rule doesn't apply if you're running for reelection or if you're a legislator). Thus, Aecio Neves resigned and Anastasia took office. This law has tons of critics but I don't see it being changed for now.

[Simfan34]

I am confused. Antonio Anastasia was eligible for another term as governor, no? He was elected in 2010.

Nope.

Aécio Neves resigned in March 2010 in order to run for the Senate, Anastasia was the vice governor, so, he became the governor. That's why he was "reelected" in October 2010. He was already in the office during the election. So, he is not eligible for another term.

Ugh, that idiotic law, the decompati-whatever. It should be abolished.

[buritobr]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

Marina Silva is not focusing her campaign on environment. She is in a battle against Aécio Neves for the right-wing votes. Environment is not a very popular issue among the kind of voter she is trying to get.

However, of course her program mentions environment. She pretends to create a "Brazilian Market of carbono emission".

This text explains the diferences between Marina's and Dilma's views on environment. It was published in a pro-Dilma site. It is in Portuguese.

http://www.cartamaior.com.br/?%2FEditoria%2FMeio-Ambiente%2FCupula-do-Clima-o-desencontro-entre-Dilma-e-Marina%2F3%2F31857

[politicus]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

Marina Silva is not focusing her campaign on environment. She is in a battle against Aécio Neves for the right-wing votes. Environment is not a very popular issue among the kind of voter she is trying to get.

However, of course her program mentions environment. She pretends to create a "Brazilian Market of carbono emission".

This text explains the diferences between Marina's and Dilma's views on environment. It was published in a pro-Dilma site. It is in Portuguese.

http://www.cartamaior.com.br/?%2FEditoria%2FMeio-Ambiente%2FCupula-do-Clima-o-desencontro-entre-Dilma-e-Marina%2F3%2F31857

Well, I know she is going for the right wing vote, which was the background for my question. I am interested in 1) your evaluation of whether she still cares about those issues 2) if so, what is her chance of implementing anyhing "green" with the kind of congress she is likely to get?

[Paleobrazilian]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

Marina Silva is not focusing her campaign on environment. She is in a battle against Aécio Neves for the right-wing votes. Environment is not a very popular issue among the kind of voter she is trying to get.

However, of course her program mentions environment. She pretends to create a "Brazilian Market of carbono emission".

This text explains the diferences between Marina's and Dilma's views on environment. It was published in a pro-Dilma site. It is in Portuguese.

http://www.cartamaior.com.br/?%2FEditoria%2FMeio-Ambiente%2FCupula-do-Clima-o-desencontro-entre-Dilma-e-Marina%2F3%2F31857

Well, I know she is going for the right wing vote, which was the background for my question. I am interested in 1) your evaluation of whether she still cares about those issues 2) if so, what is her chance of implementing anyhing "green" with the kind of congress she is likely to get?

My humble opinion: No and no.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Exactly. Under Brazilian law, you're forced to resign from Executive office 6 months before the election if you want to run for some other public office (this rule doesn't apply if you're running for reelection or if you're a legislator). Thus, Aecio Neves resigned and Anastasia took office. This law has tons of critics but I don't see it being changed for now.

And now Anastasia himself had to resign to run for Senate.

I really don't understand why an executive should resign while running for another post while a legislator doesn't have to.

[Sec. of State Superique]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

Marina Silva is not focusing her campaign on environment. She is in a battle against Aécio Neves for the right-wing votes. Environment is not a very popular issue among the kind of voter she is trying to get.

However, of course her program mentions environment. She pretends to create a "Brazilian Market of carbono emission".

This text explains the diferences between Marina's and Dilma's views on environment. It was published in a pro-Dilma site. It is in Portuguese.

http://www.cartamaior.com.br/?%2FEditoria%2FMeio-Ambiente%2FCupula-do-Clima-o-desencontro-entre-Dilma-e-Marina%2F3%2F31857

Well, I know she is going for the right wing vote, which was the background for my question. I am interested in 1) your evaluation of whether she still cares about those issues 2) if so, what is her chance of implementing anyhing "green" with the kind of congress she is likely to get?

My humble opinion: No and no.

My opinion: Yes and no, it's not her top prority and she won't be able to do much with the largely conservative Congress that we have...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Aecio indeed comes third, not making into a runoff, it would be the first time PSDB did not take one of two first places in presidential election. Could that, combined with troubles in his home state (gubernatorial race) really damage his future chances? Though, again, Brazilian politics is known for comebacks.

(Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions)

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa climbing over 2,5% today. Petrobras' stock skyrocketing 6%. Itaú gaining 4,4%. I think Marina will regain traction on tonight's Datafolha.

[politicus]

Bovespa climbing over 2,5% today. Petrobras' stock skyrocketing 6%. I think Marina will regain traction on tonight's Datafolha.

Any good investment tips with the stocks jumping up and down like that? Which ones moves the most with the polls?

(sorry for going off topic)

[Sec. of State Superique]

Bovespa climbing over 2,5% today. Petrobras' stock skyrocketing 6%. Itaú gaining 4,4%. I think Marina will regain traction on tonight's Datafolha.

Unfortunately that is not the case. Datafolha is showing Dilma with 40%, Marina with 27% and Aécio with 18% =(

[Paleobrazilian]

Dilma takes a 4 point lead in the runoff. Over 11 thousand voters polled, excellent sample. Here go the details:



Not only Dilma regains ground, she also lowers her rejection ratings. This + many Aecio voters that now say they'll nullify their votes on the runoff = tight Dilma win. If Marina loses due to Aecio voters that refused to vote for Marina, Aecio will be hated forever by many in the PSDB and ally parties (in desperation, Aecio has been attacking Marina quite strongly).

[Paleobrazilian]

If Aecio indeed comes third, not making into a runoff, it would be the first time PSDB did not take one of two first places in presidential election. Could that, combined with troubles in his home state (gubernatorial race) really damage his future chances? Though, again, Brazilian politics is known for comebacks.

(Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions)

With recent poll numbers and the general mood, I think I can describe Aecio's situation this way (long post):

Aecio has been showing weakness ever since he took office as Senator back in 2011. Here in Brazil, being in the Executive is WAY more important than being in the Legislative, not only because who's in the Executive has the whole machine basically on his hand under Brazil's Constitution, but also because Congress in Brazil has appalling approval ratings. In 2012, Aecio failed to elect Mayors in many important cities of Minas Gerais (like Uberaba, Uberlândia and all cities of the Vale do Aço metropolitan area). This, plus Aecio's growing weakness, helps explaining the weakness of PSDB's candidate in Minas Gerais.

The second fact that has to be taken in account is that, for many PSDBists (affectionately called toucans), Aecio betrayed Alckmin's presidential campaign in 2006 and Serra's presidential campaign in 2010. It's pretty much well known that both times Aecio kindly accepted the Lula-Aecio and Dilma-Anastasia campaigns ran by local leaders tied to Aecio. In 2006, Aecio barely made a move for Alckmin, focusing on his own reelection campaign, as he knew this would be the best way to give him an opening to run for president in 2010. In 2010, after being defeated by Serra on the run to be the PSDB's candidate, Aecio also left Serra for dead, instead focused on electing Anastasia and consolidating his name as the consensus candidate of his party for 2014.

Of course, I do believe Aecio should have been PSDB's candidate back in 2010. He was young, fresh, the incumbent two term governor of a very important state with sky-high approval ratings, while Serra looked old and tired through the entire campaign. But it's obvious that Aecio shouldn't have put his own interests before the ones of his party. This pretty much killed him within the PSDB and its allies, and its unsurprising, though, that many within the party are secretly smiling when they see Aecio failing dismally. This is happening not only in São Paulo, but pretty much in all the PSDB state cells around the country. It's scary that the only strong gubernatorial candidate from an important state to fully embrace Aecio's campaign (other than Pimenta da Veiga, of course) is Ana Amélia Lemos (PP-RS), who's from a party that endorses Dilma nationally.

As for the consequences of this, I feel they're pretty big:

First, I think Aecio is way too damaged to be the PSDB's presidential candidate in 2018. Not only he showed weakness (even inside his own turf), he also totally failed to unify his party around him, due to his past and the own ambitions of party leaders. He even tried to bring former PSDB leaders (including FHC) to the spotlight to try to solidify the support he should have gotten from the base, but failed in epic fashion. The party has shifted strongly to the leaders it elected in 2010 (Alckmin, Beto Richa, Simão Jatene, Marconi Perillo, Aloysio Nunes, even Anastasia who was seen as a puppet of Aecio at first glance), and while FHC, Arminio Fraga and etc are still pretty much heroes within the party, they're not the unifying figures they used to be anymore.

Second, it's crucial to understand the shift I mentioned above. When the PSDB was created back in 1988, it was supposed to be a "new left" political party, Brazil's own "new Labour". It's most prominent members in the beginning were well known left wing thinkers such as FHC, José Serra, José Aníbal, etc. As any "new left" group, they were pretty much a center-left party with highly pragmatical policies. The best example is the famous "infusion of capitalism" speech given by the great Mario Covas back in 1989, when he mentioned the urging need of more liberalism allied to social policies. That was pretty much the PSDB you had until 2002.

When the PT took over the federal government, it pretty much took over the center-left sweet spot the PSDB and it's older leaders occupied (perhaps a tad to the left than the PSDB used to be). Some will say the PSDB was a right wing party back then, I strongly reject this notion but I guess this depends on what one consider as left or right. Anyway, it's pretty clear PSDB members started to shift slowly to the right after 2002, slowly embracing economic liberalism less shyly and some conservative social policies (specially on law enforcement matters). This trend was accelerated in 2010 and 2012, when many toucans and close allies were elected under center-right platforms and policies, including Alckmin, Beto Richa, Aloysio Nunes, ACM Neto, etc. Alckmin is running a decidely center-right campaign this year (specially on law enforcement matters, where he's adopting a strong law and order speech) that's proving to be very successful.

All that means that this may end up being a realigning election for the PSDB, with the party embracing a new center-right spot more decisively. Many old leaders feel unwell with this change, but there's not much left for them to do now. Aecio has been stuck between the old, center-left PSDB and the new, center-right PSDB. He's been trying to pander more to right wing voters talking about liberal policies and a law and order speech. But not only he's being hurt by right wing tactical voting for Marina, he also doesn't sound convincing when using a right wing speech, even though he implemented policies similar to those when he was Governor of Minas Gerais. This speech flows way more naturally with Geraldo Alckmin, for example. That's another reason why I think Aecio is gone as a relevant PSDB name for now, and possibly for good.

Third, 2018 is shaping up to be the first time in 20 years when there will be no bad blood about the PSDB nominee for the presidential race. In 2002, Serra was chosen because he was a good friend of FHC and well known nationally, but a more pragmatic faction of the party preferred Ceara's two term incumbent governor Tasso Jereissati. In 2006, Serra battled until the end to be the nominee, but in the end Alckmin won the nomination. Then after, both Serra and Aecio threw him under the bus. In 2010, Serra and Aecio had a bloddy battle for the nomination, and Aecio pretty much ignored the interest of his party after Serra was chosen.  This year Aecio was not seriously challenged, but is struggling with the bad blood left from 2006 and 2010.

As for 2018, some say Serra is still (unbelievably) interested, but I simply don't see him as a serious challenger for Alckmin. Serra looks older than ever and will be 76 by election day 2018, simply too old to be seriously considered. Not to mention that Serra represents the old PSDB, which, as I said, is on the road to extinction. Alckmin has already taken over the chairmanship of São Paulo's PSDB and the national PSDB shouldn't be a hard challenge for him now. Plus, if the current scenario stays put (and today's Datafolha confirmed Tuesday's IBOPE), Alckmin is poised to win over 60% of the valid votes in a 1st round election, an amazing result for the PSDB. Hell, he's on track to win ALL the 653 cities of São Paulo with Padilha's awful performance. Only a disaster will take the nomination away from him, and with the solidification of the move to the right and Aecio's loss of strength, you can be certain he'll be the 1st PSDB candidate after FHC's reelection campaign to rally the entire base around him.

Finally, one last thing. Don't rule out a party switch for Aecio. He's a political predator and perhaps a party like the PTB or even the PMDB will want a candidate for the presidency in 2018. Aecio would be perfect for them. He considered this idea around 2009, let's not forget.

After October 26th it'll be important to evaluate all this again. Some things may change, but I think the scenario is pretty much the one described above.

[politicus]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

Not at all; and there isn't. She became just a tool (this was clear at some point, in 2010, but most voters only realized It after election) and her ticket (and also her new - nonexistent - political movement) was basically a media creation. No serious party would be willing to support her.

Just found this answer - a bit funny now that he was so adamant about it, but batmacumba hasn't been active since March, so I can't tease him with it.

Anyway, you guys don't mention Congress much. How are the polls? Is there any chance of more consolidation or will it remain fragmented?

[buritobr]

Well, Brazil has a very complicated system for the election of the Chamber of Deputies (lower house of the Congress). Even many Brazilians don't understand.

There are 513 deputies. Each state has a number of seats in a proportion according to the population. But there are limits. No state can have more than 70 seats and no less than 8 seats. São Paulo, the most populous state, would have 110 deputies according to the proportion of the population, but has only 70. Roraima, the least populous state, would have 1 seat, but has 8.

The seats are filled through a proportional representation system. However, unlike PR in other countries, in Brazil, people can vote either for an individual candidate or a party (the large majority of the Brazilians vote for an individual candidate). It works like that:
Consider state X, which has 8 seats, 40000 voters, and two parties, A and B.

The Party A candidates are Pedro, José, Julia, André, Maria, Carlos, Paulo, Jorge
The Party B candidates are Sílvio, Marcelo, Flávio, Reginaldo, Felipe, Rafael, Lucas, Patricia

The results are

Partisan vote for party A: 1100
Pedro: 8200
José: 6900
Julia: 3000
André: 2300
Maria: 1900
Carlos: 900
Paulo: 500
Jorge: 200

Partisan vote for party B: 800
Sílvio: 6600
Marcelo: 3000
Flávio: 2500
Reginaldo: 800
Felipe: 600
Rafael: 300
Lucas: 200
Patricia: 200

If you add the number of partisan votes to the number of votes to the candidates of each party, Party A has 25000 votes and Party B has 15000. Considering that this state has 8 seats, according to the proportion, Party A wins 5 seats and Party B wins 3 seats. The candidates who win the seats are the ones who have the biggest number of votes in each party. So, Pedro, José, Julia, André and Maria are elected in Party A, and Sílvio, Marcelo and Flávio are elected in Party B.

Most of the Brazilians decide for whom they will vote for deputy only a weak before the election. Most of them do not care about the party. That's why it is very hard to predict the result of the election for the lower house through polls.
Many parties use famous people as candidates, in order to receive a large number of votes, and then, a large number of seats. The candidate who received the biggest number of votes in São Paulo in 2010 was Tiririca, a comedian, and probably he will receive the biggest number of votes again.

[buritobr]

Considering the Senate (upper house)
this year, only one third (27) of the 81 senators will be elected. So, the seats of the senators elected in 2006 are being contested in this election.

In 2006, PT elected only the senators in São Paulo and Acre. Probably, in São Paulo, Eduardo Suplicy will loose the reelection to PSDB candidate José Serra. But PT has big chances in Pernambuco (former Recife mayor João Paulo) and Rio Grande do Sul (former governor Olívio Dutra).
Many senators elected in 2006 were from PSDB, PFL (now, the name of this party is DEM) and PMDB. Maybe, DEM (the most conservative party) will lose ground, but PSDB will elect many senators again.
Nowadays, PMDB has 20 seats, PT has 12 seats, PSDB has 12 seats, PTB has 6 seats, PDT has 5 seats, PP has 5 seats, PR has 5 seats, PSB has 4 seats, DEM has 4 seats, PCdoB has 2 seats, PSD has 2 seats, PRB has 1 seat, PSC has 1 seat, PV has 1 seat and PSOL has 1 seat. I think the number of seats for each party will not change very much.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's expected that the PMDB will retain their grip to the Senate, perhaps expanding it to up to 20 seats (there's a total of 81 seats on the Senate). The PT will be #2 again, and the PSDB will be # 3 again. PSB leaders are confident they'll be the 4th force on the Senate in 2015.

As for the Chamber of Deputies, the PT is expected to have losses in some states, possibly big ones. Still, they'll probably have up to 90 seats, contesting the presidency of the Chamber with the PMDB. The PSDB is confident about gaining seats here in São Paulo but should lose in other places. The PSB and the PSD are battling for the 4th place.

The proportional system used in Brazil is AWFUL. As buritobr also mentioned, the "one man one vote" logic is invalid here in Brazil due to the disproportional allocation of Congressmen between the states. As I said before, there's urging need for a political reform, all candidates talk about it, none of them will take the idea seriously.