Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOPE numbers are out. Very similar 1st round numbers to Datafolha. Very different runoff numbers though. According to IBOPE Marina is only 4 points behind Dilma in the runoff, against 8 on Datafolha. IBOPE has way many undecideds than Datafolha. A Dilma-Aecio runoff has similar numbers to the ones from Datafolha, but once again there are 10% more undecideds.



Runoff numbers (nearly impossible to read): Dilma 42% x Marina 38%; Dilma 45% x Aecio 35%

Usually I trust Datafolha more. Right now, I'm torn. I think we'll have some surprises Sunday.

[buritobr]

The biggest difference between Ibope and Datafolha is that Ibope shows a larger percentage of voters who wouldn't vote for any candidate or have not decided yet (branco/nulo/indeciso).

I think it is not hard to explain. Ibope interviews people at their homes. Datafolha interviews people at streets. When stopped by a Datafolha interviewer at the street, the probability of somenone who is not interested in the election say "sorry, I don't have time" is bigger than the probability of someone interested in the election do that. Someone who is interested in the election would be very happy in being interviewed by the poll.
Someone not interested in the election would say "I don't have time" at the street, but probably, she would not say "go away" when na interviewer knock her door at home.

That's why I think Ibope interviews a larger percentage of voters who are not interested in the election.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm undecided between Eduardo Jorge and Lucians Genro in the 1st. round right now... I've just watched the last debate and liked Genro more... What would you do??

[buritobr]

I have already considered the possibility of voting for Luciana Genro or Eduardo Jorge. But then, I realized that they don't want to be the president. They want only to show the ideas of their parties during the campaign. That's why I will vote for Dilma Rousseff. I don't like "protest vote".

Luciana Genro and Eduardo Jorge brought very good ideas to the campaign, like the taxation of big wealthies, anti-trust laws in the media market (in order to make the media more democratic), land and urban reform, legalization of abortion, legalization of marijuana. But in order to support these issues, I vote for a Congressman who support them. These are not the most important issues for me to choose a president.

One issue supported by Luciana Genro and Eduardo Jorge which is also supported by Dilma Rousseff is increasing the relevance of direct democracy mechanisms.


My complete vote

State Deputy: Robson Leite 13013
Federal Deputy: Jean Wyllys 5005
Senator: Romário 400
Governor: Lindberg Farias 13
President: Dilma Rousseff 13

[Paleobrazilian]

I'd go with Eduardo Jorge between those, but of course I'm classical liberal on the economy with a libertarian streak on social issues. If I were a left-wing voter, I'd probably go with Luciana Genro, even though I feel she's way too tied to the old left.

[Paleobrazilian]

One more interesting fact: according to IBOPE and Datafolha Marina's voters know less her number on the electronic ballot, and they have more trouble using the electronic ballot. That could end up being a problem for her if the election is too tight.

[buritobr]

Considering that now the runoff scenario between Dilma and Aécio, and between Dilma and Marina, are not too diferent, there will be no generic anti-PT strategic vote for Marina anymore. But it won't have too much impact. I think most of the Marina vote is not strategic. Most of the polls in 2013 showed Marina ahead of Aécio.


Concercing Marina's number: if past Marina voters type 43 (Green Party number, her number in 2010), they will see Eduardo Jorge's face. They would ask: why does she have a beard in the picture?

[buritobr]

State polls Ibope


São Paulo (22,4% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 45%
Paulo Skaf (PMDB) 19%
Alexandre Padilha (PT) 11%

President
Marina Silva (PSB) 29%
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 29%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 22%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%


Rio de Janeiro (8,5% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Luiz Fernando Pezão (PMDB) 31%
Anthony Garotinho (PR) 24%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 16%
Lindberg Farias (PT) 9%

President
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 37%
Marina Silva (PSB) 33%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 13%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%


Minas Gerais (10,7% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 45%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) 25%

President
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 36%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 31%
Marina Silva (PSB) 17%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%


Distrito Federal (1,3% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB) 32%
Jofran Frejat (PR) 24%
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 19%

President
Marina Silva (PSB) 36%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 24%
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 23%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%
Eduardo Jorge (PV) 1%

[Paleobrazilian]

Considering that now the runoff scenario between Dilma and Aécio, and between Dilma and Marina, are not too diferent, there will be no generic anti-PT strategic vote for Marina anymore. But it won't have too much impact. I think most of the Marina vote is not strategic. Most of the polls in 2013 showed Marina ahead of Aécio.


Concercing Marina's number: if past Marina voters type 43 (Green Party number, her number in 2010), they will see Eduardo Jorge's face. They would ask: why does she have a beard in the picture?

Her biggest risk are voters getting confused and nullify their votes.

In a very close election turnout could be decisive as well. Of course, voting in Brazil is mandatory, but if you're outside your voting city you cannot vote and just has to sign a paper informing you were outside. Plus, some voters from rural areas sometimes don't vote, as the consequences of not voting are not particularly serious  (it'll forbid you to take public admission exams and getting a passport, basically).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Minas Gerais (10,7% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 45%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) 25%

President
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 36%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 31%
Marina Silva (PSB) 17%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%

Wow. Aecio losing his home state would be quite devastating, wouldn't it?

(Yes, I know Minas is also Dilma's home state, but given Aecio was a highly popular Governor with strong machine...)

[Niemeyerite]

I have already considered the possibility of voting for Luciana Genro or Eduardo Jorge. But then, I realized that they don't want to be the president. They want only to show the ideas of their parties during the campaign. That's why I will vote for Dilma Rousseff. I don't like "protest vote".

I don't like protest vote either, but I can't vote for Dilma in the 1st round... We disagree on many, many issues: abortion, LGBT rights, drugs, environment... Whatsmore, I find her soft on corruption and hate some of the parties who are supporting her (PP, PRB).

I think I'll vote for Eduardo Jorge in the end just because I like him more, but I hope both of them get over 1% (Luciana over 2% could be possible!).

[Paleobrazilian]

Datafolha numbers in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro:

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Question: How politically different are Rousseff and Silva?

[buritobr]

Minas Gerais (10,7% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 45%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) 25%

President
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 36%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 31%
Marina Silva (PSB) 17%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%

Wow. Aecio losing his home state would be quite devastating, wouldn't it?

(Yes, I know Minas is also Dilma's home state, but given Aecio was a highly popular Governor with strong machine...)

Dilma's birth state is Minas Gerais. Dilma's home state is Rio Grande do Sul. When her party was PDT, she was the Secretary of Finance of the Municipality of Porto Alegre (state capital) between 1986 and 1988. When she was still in the PDT, she was the Secretary of Energy of the State of Rio Grande do Sul under the administration of the PT governor Olívio Dutra, between 1999 and 2002. In 2001, when the PDT decided to not endorse Dutra's administration anymore, Dilma joined the PT.

[Paleobrazilian]

Actually Dilma had some sort of a Mitt Romney problem back in 2010 when she claimed she had 2 home states. This time it seems she decided to shy from this strategy, as she said on Sunday's debate that Minas Gerais was "Aecio's territory, not hers" (an idiot statement IMO, but not one that will hurt her).

Today was the last day of campaign on the TV and in the radio for candidates for Governor, Senator and State Congresses. Yesterday the last debates between candidates for Governor happened. Thus, the campaign for those offices is now basically over. Big changes now are very unlikely, barring an unexpected event of large impact.

Now it's all about ground support, those candidates I mentioned above have to make sure voters will know their numbers once they get ahead of the electronic ballot, and grassroots support is essential for this. Those localized troops will print tons of leaflets with the numbers of the candidates, and having many leaflets floating around can be crucial due to the number factor.

Here's a video of Geraldo Alckmin's campaign teaching his voters how to vote for him. Many videos like those, of mnemonic songs are circulating right now, to help voters remember the number they have to type.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFnvbIpRsQI

PS: of course voters with higher education degrees know they have to type 45 when voting for the PSDB, or 13 when voting PT. But many voters with lower education levels struggle using the electronic ballot. Making things worse, quite a few people only started paying attention to the race and settled their votes over the last few days.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Minas Gerais (10,7% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 45%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) 25%

President
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 36%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 31%
Marina Silva (PSB) 17%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%

Wow. Aecio losing his home state would be quite devastating, wouldn't it?

(Yes, I know Minas is also Dilma's home state, but given Aecio was a highly popular Governor with strong machine...)

Dilma's birth state is Minas Gerais. Dilma's home state is Rio Grande do Sul.

OK, I got confused because wiki listed Minas as her "home state".

Btw, it's interesting to see how many leftist political figures in Brazil were or are based in  Rio Grande do Sul.

[Paleobrazilian]

Rio Grande do Sul is the most politicized state in Brazil, due to many social and historical reasons. Not only it has a strong left, it has also a very strong and starkly marked right, and there's pretty much a 50/50 split between those sides. Rio Grande do Sul also has a very strong anti-incumbent record, a Governor has never been reelected there, and the last two governors that tried reelection couldn't even make it to the runoff.

[Paleobrazilian]

Once again Bovespa floats wildly before polls, this time gaining 2%. According to rumors it'll be a dead heat between Aecio and Marina tonight.

[buritobr]

Question: How politically different are Rousseff and Silva?

In few words, using American definition

Dilma Rousseff = big government
Marina Silva = small government

You can find more detalied discussion in this thread

[Paleobrazilian]

According to Datafolha it's now a statistically tied game between Marina and Aecio. They now do exactly the same way in a runoff. This will be very, very tight.

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOPE shows things a little bit differently. Lots of uncertainty.



Runoff: Dilma 43% (+1) x Marina 36% (-2); Dilma 46% (+1) x Aecio 33% (-2)

[Paleobrazilian]

Official campaigning ended yesterday with the last day of TV campaign for the presidency and for the Chamber, and with the final presidential debate, in TV Globo, by far the most important of the debates. Dilma is a weak debater who reads 99% of her remarks, and was the preferential target of most candidates, so we'll see if this debate has any effect.

[Niemeyerite]

Time for predictions!

Here's mine:

Dilma Rousseff 44.5%
Marina Silva 26.5%
Aécio Neves 23%
Luciana Genro 2%
Pastor Everaldo 1.5%
Eduardo Jorge 1%
Levy Fidelix 0.5%
Others 1%

I'll watch the debate that took place yesterday. If I like Luciana more, my vote goes for her. If I like Jorge more, he'll get my vote. (My vote and my mother's vote.)

[RodPresident]

Prediction
Dilma: 47.3%
Aécio: 25.3%
Marina: 22.8%
All of others: 4.6% (order: Luciana Genro, Everaldo, Eduardo Jorge, Fidelix, Zé Maria, Eymael, Iasi, Costa Pimenta)
My votes:
President: Dilma (PT)
Governor: Renata Mallet (PSTU)
Senator: Otto Alencar (PSD)
Federal legislator: Amauri Teixeira (PT)
State legislator: Angelo Almeida (PT)
If Brazil had alternate vote for president, I'd vote in that order:
1. Luciana Genro
2. Dilma Rousseff
3. Rui Costa Pimenta
4. Mauro Iasi
5. Zé Maria
6.Levy Fidelix (even if he's homophobic, I like his retoric against banks and populism)
7. Eduardo Jorge (my problem with him is running-mate Celia Sacramento who supports ACM Neto's gang in Bahia)
8. Eymael
9. Marina
10. Aécio
11. Everaldo (i don't like his neoliberal and social conservative rhetoric).

[Paleobrazilian]

My prediction

Dilma: 44.7%
Aécio: 25.8%
Marina: 25.1%
Rev. Everaldo: 1.5%
Eduardo Jorge: 1.2%
Luciana Genro: 1%
Others: 0.8%

Governor races:

São Paulo: Alckmin (PSDB) wins in the 1st round
Rio de Janeiro: Runoff between Pezão (PMDB) and Garotinho (PR)
Minas Gerais: Pimentel (PT) wins in the 1st round
Espírito Santo: Hartung (PMDB) wins in the 1st round
Paraná: Richa (PSDB) wins in the 1st round
Santa Catarina: Colombo wins in the 1st round
Rio Grande do Sul: Runoff between T. Genro (PT) and Sartori (PMDB)
Bahia: Souto (DEM) wins in the 1st round
Sergipe: Barreto (PMDB) wins in the 1st round
Alagoas: Renan Filho (PMDB) wins in the 1st round
Pernambuco: Camara (PSB) wins in the 1st round
Paraíba: Runoff between Cunha Lima (PSDB) and Coutinho (PSB)
Rio Grande do Norte: Alves (PMDB) wins in the 1st round
Ceará: Eunicio Oliveira (PMDB) wins in the 1st round
Piauí: Dias (PT) wins in the 1st round
Maranhão: Dino (PCdoB) wins in the 1st round
Pará: Jatene (PSDB) wins in the 1st round
Amazonas: Braga (PMDB) wins in the 1st round
Amapá: Runoff between Goes (PDT) and Capiberibe (PSB)
Roraima: Runoff between Rodrigues (PSB) and Suely Campos (PP)
Acre: Runoff between T. Viana (PT) and Bittar (PSDB)
Rondonia: Runoff between Confucio Moura (PMDB) and Expedito Jr. (PSDB)
Tocantins: Marcelo Miranda (PMDB) wins in the 1st round
Mato Grosso: Taques (PDT) wins in the 1st round
Mato Grosso do Sul: Runoff between Delcidio Amaral (PT) and Azambuja (PSDB)
Goiás: Runoff between Perillo (PSDB) and Iris Rezende (PMDB)
Federal District: Runoff between R. Rollemberg (PSB) and J. Frejat (PR)

Races in the largest states are now way too tied to the national race. There used to be many competitive candidates for Governor back in the 90s, so a 1st round win was rare. Now competitive candidates for Governor build gigantic coalitions and a runoff only happens when there's a really strong 3rd candidate.

Smaller states still tend to be more influenced by local politics, though.